Pool C -- 2009

[Pat Coleman]

DePauw cannot finish better than 8-1, which may put it behind all other Pool C hopefuls. 

There's no evidence that suggests that 8-1 is treated any different than 9-1, by the way.

[PA_wesleyfan]

DePauw cannot finish better than 8-1, which may put it behind all other Pool C hopefuls. 

There's no evidence that suggests that 8-1 is treated any different than 9-1, by the way.

Ah yes Pat buit there is no evidence that it isn't either!!!!  Noone ever sees the evidence only the verdict when the seeds come out!! 

[altor]

I feel like I'm looking over four lists to get a vague picture of Pool C likelihoods.  Does this help?  

One-loss Pool C candidates:

UMHB
St. Thomas
Wheaton (@ IWU this week)
Coe
Wabash/DePauw winner (DePauw still roughly 50/50 for Pool A - depending on Centre @ Trinity)
Wash. & Jeff.
Springfield
St. Norbert
Redlands (still to play @ Cal Lu)

Obviously teams need to win to stay on that list.  Others might be added if they lose grip of their Pool A (perhaps Centre; Albright?).

Strongest two-loss teams:
ONU/Capital winner
Bethel (if they knock off St. Thomas)
Others? Willamette?


Thoughts, edits, corrections, etc. are welcome...

I believe Plymouth State of the NEFC is 7-1 in region (despite what the SOS page says).  Their opening loss against D-II St. Anselm is out of region.

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks. This is the problem with schools having access to our database. Sometimes they change things. This used to be correct on our site.

[altor]

I was also going to point out that you might change Springfield to Springfield/St John Fisher winner.

St John Fisher is 4-1 in region, but out-of-region losses to Mount Union and Salisbury might be enough to remove them from consideration.

[altor]

Those removed from the category have been struckthrough.  Additions (even the unlikely ones) in bold.

I feel like I'm looking over four lists to get a vague picture of Pool C likelihoods.  Does this help?  

One-loss Pool C candidates:

UMHB  - Beat Howard Payne 45-7
St. Thomas  - Beat Bethel 19-10
Wheaton (@ IWU this week)  - Lost to IWU 20-17
Coe  - beat Buena Vista 31-20
Wabash/DePauw winner
     Wabash beat Hiram 41-0
     DePauw beat Austin 34-23
     Trinity beat Centre 27-17, making DePauw Pool A
Wash. & Jeff.  - beat Bethany 49-0
Springfield  - lost to St John Fisher 34-7
St. Norbert - beat Illinois College 49-0
Redlands (still to play @ Cal Lu)  - plays late tonight
Albright/Lebanon Valley winner
Plymouth St - beat Salve Regina 33-7
St John Fisher (1 in-region loss, 2 more OoR losses) - beat Springfield 34-7

Obviously teams need to win to stay on that list.  Others might be added if they lose grip of their Pool A (perhaps Centre; Albright?).

Strongest two-loss teams:
ONU/Capital winner - ONU wins 31-21
Bethel (if they knock off St. Thomas)  - lost to St Thomas 19-10
Others? Willamette?
Otterbein?
North Central?
Wheaton?
Springfield?
Will a two-loss team even get to the table?

[Ralph Turner]

With one week left, let's assume that the Pool C candidates make it to the table.

South Region

UMHB
W&J

East Region

Lebanon Valley/Albright winner
Plymouth State
SJF

West Region

St Thomas
Coe
St Norbert
Redlands

North Region

Wabash

Everyone else has 2 in-region losses.

Otterbein
ONU
NCC
Wheaton
etc.
...

A two loss team might make it to the table in the North Region, but that may be the only region.

[Mr. Ypsi]

IF Wabash loses the Monon Bell game, a 2-loss team will be at the table from the get-go in the North.  We may need to examine the SOS and other criteria for several North teams to guesstimate who starts at the table.

IMO several North 2-loss teams are better than all but a couple of the 1-loss teams, but it may be hard to win on the criteria.

[JK]

Otterbein is a shell of the team they were a few weeks ago, even with Schlosser playing.  They are seriously beat up and I don't think its out of the question that John Carroll may give them a run next week. 

Despite them holding the head to head against ONU, I think if the OAC gets a second team (as has been the custom) in that it will be the P-Bears.  It was week 1, but they did knock off NCC.  You may recall that a few years ago Capital got in with 2 losses despite a second place tie with ONU.

Oh, some of you know, despite my profile pic I am a Capital fan.  My pic is a result of a friendly wager with our Otterbein poster on the OAC board regarding the result of the CAP-OTT game.

[K-Mack]

Altor, et. al., thanks for the posts. Was just about to sit down & start figuring things out. Helpful stuff.

Lotta interesting results today ... IWU might make CCIW a one-bid league again. ONU has to get in before NCC, but Wheaton could have a shot again.

Ypsi I agree with your second paragraph ... A two-loss North team could start on the table and never get off/in.

There's even more Pool C potential ... If the Jackets steal the ODAC again, HSC would join the group.

What's the sitch in the E8? Ith > Alf > Spfld > SJF > Ith

[K-Mack]

If I had to guess, without the benefit of the new numbers, I'd guess UMHB, St. Thomas and Coe are the first three in. Then it depends on Bash. If they go in, then the two-loss north teams get on the table. If they are a two-loss north team, maybe ONU starts on there. And then that depends on if NCC stays regionally ranked.

Then it's what, W&J on in the south, Alb/LV in the east and St N or Redlands out west? (can't scroll up  here, going off memory) ... That'd be interesting with 2-3 spots open.

One-loss W&J over two-loss ONU (and NCC) might mean that it's wiser to schedule light after all. If they sit on the table while other teams get in, then maybe it's the final indictment of it.

[algernon]

One-loss W&J over two-loss ONU (and NCC) might mean that it's wiser to schedule light after all. If they sit on the table while other teams get in, then maybe it's the final indictment of it.

Johns Hopkins can win the CC AQ if they win next week, leaving Dickinson (who, with a win over Ursinus, would be 9-1) hoping for a Pool C bid.  Given that Dickinson is higher in the regional rankings than W&J, wouldn't they have a better chance of a Pool C than W&J?  

[Ryan Tipps]

One-loss W&J over two-loss ONU (and NCC) might mean that it's wiser to schedule light after all. If they sit on the table while other teams get in, then maybe it's the final indictment of it.

Johns Hopkins can win the CC AQ if they win next week, leaving Dickinson (who, with a win over Ursinus, would be 9-1) hoping for a Pool C bid.  Given that Dickinson is higher in the regional rankings than W&J, wouldn't they have a better chance of a Pool C than W&J?  

I think you're right algernon. I was just sitting down to post this same thing

[usee]

The only hitch would be where Dickinson v WJ end up in the final rankings, which we don't get to see. Last year Wheaton was behind wooster in the last publicly released rankings but ended up being picked ahead of them for pool C. But based on what we see now, its clear Dickinson gets to the table before WJ.

[algernon]

There's even more Pool C potential ... If the Jackets steal the ODAC again, HSC would join the group.

If the Tigers lose this coming Saturday against Randolph-Macon and finish at 9-1,  I think they should still make the NCAAs as a Pool C.  With their 55-23 win over likely USA South champ North Carolina Wesleyan and yesterday's 45-point victory over Salisbury (a team that lost by only 18 to #3 Wesley), the Tigers have impressive out-of-conference victories to go along with their ODAC wins, which include a 19-0 shutout of Bridgewater (6-3) and a solid victory over Emory and Henry (6-3).

However, if Hampden-Sydney finishes 10-0, they will have the distinct advantage of starting the NCAA Tournament at home, with a regional ranking of #1 or #2.