Pool C -- 2009

[HSCTiger74]

There are a lot of candidates to move in the South region. Thomas More could go North again, so could Depauw. Wesley could easily be moved east along with Dickinson, Hopkins and W &J (who could go North too if they get in.)

I'm very intrigued by these possibilities as well.

W&J could go north, east or south.

There are enough teams within a very short drive of Mount Union to make them a 1 seed without having to have the bracket involve only East teams. W&J, Thomas More, MSJ, DePauw, potential ONU/Otterbein/Wabash ... East teams could surround Wesley, but that leaves the deep south on a weird island.

All I'm saying is maybe four Ohio teams and the NE/NY teams could be in one bracket, and the deep south could end up with the Pa./Del. south. ... maybe I'm reaching, but it could be done.

Also, for all the H-SC speculation, 1, 2 or 3 seed ... you can mark down that they'll host the USAC champ. NCWC or Averett. Seems like a no-brainer.

While "The Game" week posturing should probably preclude such a question, if R-MC wins Saturday do the Tigers get a Pool C bid and what sort of seed would result if they do? I actually thought about asking Ryan, as the only non-ODAC d3.com guru, but he's got his own fish to fry this week.

[Ralph Turner]

There are a lot of candidates to move in the South region. Thomas More could go North again, so could Depauw. Wesley could easily be moved east along with Dickinson, Hopkins and W &J (who could go North too if they get in.)

I'm very intrigued by these possibilities as well.

W&J could go north, east or south.

There are enough teams within a very short drive of Mount Union to make them a 1 seed without having to have the bracket involve only East teams. W&J, Thomas More, MSJ, DePauw, potential ONU/Otterbein/Wabash ... East teams could surround Wesley, but that leaves the deep south on a weird island.

All I'm saying is maybe four Ohio teams and the NE/NY teams could be in one bracket, and the deep south could end up with the Pa./Del. south. ... maybe I'm reaching, but it could be done.

Also, for all the H-SC speculation, 1, 2 or 3 seed ... you can mark down that they'll host the USAC champ. NCWC or Averett. Seems like a no-brainer.

While "The Game" week posturing should probably preclude such a question, if R-MC wins Saturday do the Tigers get a Pool C bid and what sort of seed would result if they do? I actually thought about asking Ryan, as the only non-ODAC d3.com guru, but he's got his own fish to fry this week.

A #5 seed and a chance to fly to Belton, Texas, versus a #4 seed UMHB...          

Just kidding...

[HSCTiger74]

There are a lot of candidates to move in the South region. Thomas More could go North again, so could Depauw. Wesley could easily be moved east along with Dickinson, Hopkins and W &J (who could go North too if they get in.)

I'm very intrigued by these possibilities as well.

W&J could go north, east or south.

There are enough teams within a very short drive of Mount Union to make them a 1 seed without having to have the bracket involve only East teams. W&J, Thomas More, MSJ, DePauw, potential ONU/Otterbein/Wabash ... East teams could surround Wesley, but that leaves the deep south on a weird island.

All I'm saying is maybe four Ohio teams and the NE/NY teams could be in one bracket, and the deep south could end up with the Pa./Del. south. ... maybe I'm reaching, but it could be done.

Also, for all the H-SC speculation, 1, 2 or 3 seed ... you can mark down that they'll host the USAC champ. NCWC or Averett. Seems like a no-brainer.

While "The Game" week posturing should probably preclude such a question, if R-MC wins Saturday do the Tigers get a Pool C bid and what sort of seed would result if they do? I actually thought about asking Ryan, as the only non-ODAC d3.com guru, but he's got his own fish to fry this week.

A #5 seed and a chance to fly to Belton, Texas, versus a #4 seed UMHB...          

Just kidding...

Maybe so Ralph, but if they blow the AQ and a sure top 4 seed for the second year in a row it's a fate they deserve.   
Having said that, however, I don't believe they will.

[K-Mack]

There are a lot of candidates to move in the South region. Thomas More could go North again, so could Depauw. Wesley could easily be moved east along with Dickinson, Hopkins and W &J (who could go North too if they get in.)

I'm very intrigued by these possibilities as well.

W&J could go north, east or south.

There are enough teams within a very short drive of Mount Union to make them a 1 seed without having to have the bracket involve only East teams. W&J, Thomas More, MSJ, DePauw, potential ONU/Otterbein/Wabash ... East teams could surround Wesley, but that leaves the deep south on a weird island.

All I'm saying is maybe four Ohio teams and the NE/NY teams could be in one bracket, and the deep south could end up with the Pa./Del. south. ... maybe I'm reaching, but it could be done.

Also, for all the H-SC speculation, 1, 2 or 3 seed ... you can mark down that they'll host the USAC champ. NCWC or Averett. Seems like a no-brainer.

While "The Game" week posturing should probably preclude such a question, if R-MC wins Saturday do the Tigers get a Pool C bid and what sort of seed would result if they do? I actually thought about asking Ryan, as the only non-ODAC d3.com guru, but he's got his own fish to fry this week.

A #5 seed and a chance to fly to Belton, Texas, versus a #4 seed UMHB...          

Just kidding...

Maybe so Ralph, but if they blow the AQ and a sure top 4 seed for the second year in a row it's a fate they deserve.   
Having said that, however, I don't believe they will.

There are a lot of fates Hampden-Sydney folks deserve.

Off top, I think they're in either way. I haven't closely considered the SOS numbers, but I don't think they can be worse than W&Js. It might be close with Dickinson to see who gets on the board first, and at 9-1, the Tigers might have a regionally-ranked NC Wesleyan win. Other than that, I suppose it could be a struggle. Their only sure bet is to be 10-0. H-SC has been left out before at 9-1 and even though they tried to pump up the schedule by adding Salisbury, it turned out to be a had year for that.

Oh yikes. I just looked at the SOS page. H-SC's OWP is terrible (.384) compared to Dickinson (.494). That'll improve some, and their OOWPs are the same, but H-SC might not be in good shape after all with a loss.

Just makes the game all the more fun

Someone somewhere will be highly ticked off if a 7-3 R-MC "steals" a bid and H-SC gets in as an at-large; that'll basically mean a three-loss team pushed some one- or two-loss team out.

[K-Mack]

There are a lot of candidates to move in the South region. Thomas More could go North again, so could Depauw. Wesley could easily be moved east along with Dickinson, Hopkins and W &J (who could go North too if they get in.)

I'm very intrigued by these possibilities as well.

W&J could go north, east or south.

There are enough teams within a very short drive of Mount Union to make them a 1 seed without having to have the bracket involve only East teams. W&J, Thomas More, MSJ, DePauw, potential ONU/Otterbein/Wabash ... East teams could surround Wesley, but that leaves the deep south on a weird island.

All I'm saying is maybe four Ohio teams and the NE/NY teams could be in one bracket, and the deep south could end up with the Pa./Del. south. ... maybe I'm reaching, but it could be done.

Also, for all the H-SC speculation, 1, 2 or 3 seed ... you can mark down that they'll host the USAC champ. NCWC or Averett. Seems like a no-brainer.

I think that the ASC would be happy just splitting us apart.  If Huntingdon is ranked ahead of Miss College, then the drive to Montgomery for Mississippi fans is nothing... just like another SEC road game! The next game is a plane fight anyway you look at it.

Besides, I think that it would be good to take advantage of the opportunity to have different brackets one year.

Curry to Wesley is 387 miles.

That brings up the point I was trying to make in one of my other posts. If Huntingdon, Miss Coll and UMHB are all in the field representing the deep south, an odd number means someone has to go somewhere.

The committee is supposed to try to avoid rematches of conference teams in the first round; it's happened to UMHB/HSU in the past because the committee hasn't had other options (or misused the mileage software and thought it didn't have other options).

Google Maps gives me 286 miles from Clinton to Montgomery, and while that might work out as a 3/7 or 4/7 game, Miss Coll-Huntingdon seems like it has to be the pick if both are in the field along with UMHB. UMHB will be a lower seed than Miss Coll and is 663 miles from Huntingdon, so it's not an option.

So really I think you're safe from the Texas ASC subbracket this season. If UMHB is left out, then it's Miss Coll-Huntingdon. If UMHB is in, it's still gotta be Miss Coll/Hunt over Miss Coll/UHMB. If they do it this year, they really did you wrong.

And I checked ... Averett is a shade over 535 miles by I-85 (I don't think 'as the crow flies' mileage is used, but that could be cutting it close) and N.C. Wesleyan is further than that from Huntingdon, so all = flights.

[K-Mack]

Taking that a step further, if Redlands, CLU and Linfield are all in, and UMHB, Miss Coll and Huntingdon are, that means they'll have two three-team islands requiring a flight each, and two conference rematches to try to avoid.

While I'm inclined to think they might just make Cal Lu and Redlands play again this scenario to save dough, it would be a rematch of a Week 11 game; they'd almost have to avoid that.

I'm talking myself through this as I type, but it seems there'd be a logical way to take the extraneous "flying" team from each "island" and match them up, therefore avoiding flights throughout the rest of the bracket. (I'm assuming there's enough flexibilty in the upper midwest/mid-atlantic/northeast to make three flight-free first rounds)

So is it Hunt @ Miss Coll, Redlands @ Linfield and UMHB @ Cal Lu (they won't beef at the trip to Malibu)?

We've speculated on Cali-Texas flights before, based on the fact it's been done in basketball, but the chips never seem to fall that way.

Just seems to be an unprecendented amount of flexibility with the group of teams that could potentially make it.

[Toby Taff]

So really I think you're safe from the Texas ASC subbracket this season. If UMHB is left out, then it's Miss Coll-Huntingdon. If UMHB is in, it's still gotta be Miss Coll/Hunt over Miss Coll/UHMB. If they do it this year, they really did you wrong.

Well, maybe this year it would at least come with a kiss.  

[K-Mack]

Just for fun, since the Pool C thread seems to be doubling as this year's playoff speculation thread, I'm going to make a field of 32 with matchups I could potentially see. I don't plan to spend more than two minutes thinking about this, I just want to throw something out there that might or (more likely) might not happen.

Feel free to change one Week 11 result, one Pool C selection or both, or just re-mix and match the bracket in a way you potentially see it falling.

I think I'll make my six Pool Cs be UMHB, St. Thomas, Coe, Wabash, Redlands and LV/Albright (really wanted to do ONU. Maybe next time)

Okay, here's a hastily assembled suggestion:

1 MUC
8 Union

4 Thomas More
5 Alfred

3 Case Western Reserve
6 MSJ

2 Wittenberg
7 Trine
------------
1 UWW
8 Wabash

4 Ill. Wesleyan
5 DePauw

3 Monmouth
6 Coe

7 St. Thomas
2 Central
-----------
1 Wesley
7 LV/Albright

3 H-SC
8 NCWC/Averett

4 Kean
5 Curry

2 Del Val
6 Johns Hopkins

------------
1 St. John's
8 Conc Ill

3 Miss Coll
6 Hunt

4 Cal Lutheran
5 UMHB

7 Redlands
2 Linfield

-----------
Okay, some observations:

-- This took much longer than two minutes. If you do it yourself, I advise you to list your 32 teams and have them in front of you before you start mixing and matching, rather than the way I did it ... making up matchups that make sense, then trying to remember who I was missing ... only to have that team not have a good fit.

-- There's a severe shortage of low seeds in the West/North, especially if you split St. John's and UWW

-- That last bracket features a weird flight into St. John's 2nd round. Probably not ideal, but I think I kept it to minimum flights in the first round based on the teams I had in.

-- This is by no means what I think will happen; just something I wanted to do to see if it could happen.

-- Use a map. You'll be surprised how close Alfred is to Ohio. They can get to Case and Wittenberg. Trine can get to Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky. If you sub Union for Susquehanna, there are a ton more places the LL champ can go, with it being in Central Pa. stead upstate NY.

-- Do one yourself, but switch one Pool C team and watch the dominoes fall.

[Ralph Turner]

Great bracket, K-Mack!

I think that that is a great matchup.  Huntingdon was ranked higher than Miss College, and so may be given the home game.  But, I don't think that affects much.  (It is a 4/5 type of game anyway.)

[HScoach]

K-Mack:  I would love to see that bracket.  It creates much more interesting regions built around Mount and Whitewater tha I expect.  I might be in the minority, but I really like Mount getting paired with non-traditional North Region teams.  The new opponents create some excitement in the early rounds that we wouldn't normally have by playing the NCAC or Heartland teams. 

Only thing I don't like is Wabash getting in over Ohio Northern.  I realize that a 9-1 Wabash will be selected by the NCAA before an 8-2 ONU, but Northern would drill Wabash into the ground if they actually played. 

One last statement about potential Pool C's.   I really, REALLY hope Otterbein doesn't get picked if the OAC is fortunate enough to get a C bid.  They are a complete pretender.   I still don't know how they managed to steal victories against ONU and Capital, but Otterbein woud not be anywhere near as  competitive in the playoffs as Ohio Northern or 7-3 Capital.

[K-Mack]

1 Wesley
8 LV/Albright

2 H-SC
8 NCWC/Averett

3 Kean
6 Curry

2 Del Val
7 Johns Hopkins

Clearly all the mixing and matching got me to duplicate seeds here. I'll go back and update after I post this, but an interesting thing about this group is that even though it mixes East and South teams, there's no potential to fly unless a very unlikely final takes place; Even Hopkins vs. Curry is just 400 miles from Baltimore to Boston. Hampden-Sydney to Kean is within reach, and even Averett to Kean is less than 500 miles. The outlier is Curry, and they're a flight to H-SC and Averett, but it's no different than putting them in a bracket with Mount Union, which is also about 600 miles and therefore a flight.

Gonna go back and re-seed now

Another big question about that bracket is which regions meet in the semis

[K-Mack]

K-Mack:  I would love to see that bracket.  It creates much more interesting regions built around Mount and Whitewater tha I expect.  I might be in the minority, but I really like Mount getting paired with non-traditional North Region teams.  The new opponents create some excitement in the early rounds that we wouldn't normally have by playing the NCAC or Heartland teams. 

Only thing I don't like is Wabash getting in over Ohio Northern.  I realize that a 9-1 Wabash will be selected by the NCAA before an 8-2 ONU, but Northern would drill Wabash into the ground if they actually played. 

One last statement about potential Pool C's.   I really, REALLY hope Otterbein doesn't get picked if the OAC is fortunate enough to get a C bid.  They are a complete pretender.   I still don't know how they managed to steal victories against ONU and Capital, but Otterbein woud not be anywhere near as  competitive in the playoffs as Ohio Northern or 7-3 Capital.

Interesting observations.

In the podcast, Pat and I talked about how Otterbein is at a distinct SOS disadvantage compared to ONU, Wheaton and North Central. But they're at the top of this h2h/common opponents chain: OTT > ONU > NCC > Wheaton. Not sure what the committee would favor.

In the event of a Wabash loss, I think two-loss ONU has a chance to emerge from that group to be the first North Region team on the Pool C table, because of the huge SOS difference. But it's hard to get a committee to ignore an h2h result, which is usually the right way to decide.

Can anyone tell the kids woke me up before leaving for school this morning and I can't fall back asleep? Wasn't supposed to be up this early aimlessly analyzing potential playoff fields.

[MonroviaCat]

Nice work K-Mack--here is my question about your proposed bracket:  If Redlands beats CLU and wins a Pool C selection--does CLU really still end up seated higher than them and get the home game in round 1?  Or might the committee look at the head to head when placing them in brackets and swap--give Redlands the home game and send CLU up to Linfield?  I only ask because, as a Linfield fan and somebody who has watched the SCIAC this year--Redlands looks like the better team (compared to CLU) and should they win on Saturday will confirm this--  So, it would seem a little "unfair" to give the weaker team the home game and send the better team on the road (not to mention a bit unfair to Linfield to have to face a better first round team than their ranking might otherwise dictate).

addendum:  If that scenario plays out--you'd have CLU with the Autobid but 2 losses and Redlands with Pool C with one loss--maybe they send both schools out (one to Linfield and one to MHB) which of course would create a flight situation in round 2 unless both teams won--then they'd have an easy drive for the rematch between Cal LU and Redlands *but I doubt that will happen*

One more thought:  There are probably some in the NWC looking to see Redlands win on Saturday and still get left out of the playoffs as there was speculation that the Redlands Coach was involved in Whitworth's snubbing a few years ago....

[Toby Taff]

Nice work K-Mack--here is my question about your proposed bracket:  If Redlands beats CLU and wins a Pool C selection--does CLU really still end up seated higher than them and get the home game in round 1?  Or might the committee look at the head to head when placing them in brackets and swap--give Redlands the home game and send CLU up to Linfield?  I only ask because, as a Linfield fan and somebody who has watched the SCIAC this year--Redlands looks like the better team (compared to CLU) and should they win on Saturday will confirm this--  So, it would seem a little "unfair" to give the weaker team the home game and send the better team on the road (not to mention a bit unfair to Linfield to have to face a better first round team than their ranking might otherwise dictate).

In Texas we understand that "fair" has nothing to do with it.  The only reason I think CLU and Redlands wouldn't meet again is because it would be back to back weeks, but if they did, it could also mean only 1 flight UMHB to Linfield.  Which match up would be more fair?  Redlands -Linfield or UMHB - Linfield

[oldnuthin]

Quick stupid question. After the first round is done do they use the traditional bracketology or do they refigure the mileage for the second round matchups?