Pool C -- 2009

[K-Mack]

If it's one SCIAC, one NWC and three deep south, then somebody's on an island no matter how it's sliced. That probably means Huntingdon vs. Miss Coll, SCIAC to Linfield, and UMHB traveling or hosting.

That was my theory when I posted my South/West bracket for comments a couple days ago.  With these five, UMHB almost certainly is flying somewhere, and the VA/NC area seems likely to me.

Why, because it's a short flight?

I think it's more likely the low-seeded USAC champ goes to high seed H-SC.

As Gray Fox hinted, once you commit to a flight, it's not necessarily important that it be to the next-closest school.

Also, I'm not sure UMHB hosting is out of the question. But if they do fly out, I wonder if consideration is given to who is near a major airport, or are they charter flights? (I seem to remember some of the PLU stories sounding like commercial flights)

[lakeshore]

K-Mack:  I would love to see that bracket.  It creates much more interesting regions built around Mount and Whitewater tha I expect.  I might be in the minority, but I really like Mount getting paired with non-traditional North Region teams.  The new opponents create some excitement in the early rounds that we wouldn't normally have by playing the NCAC or Heartland teams. 

Only thing I don't like is Wabash getting in over Ohio Northern.  I realize that a 9-1 Wabash will be selected by the NCAA before an 8-2 ONU, but Northern would drill Wabash into the ground if they actually played. 

One last statement about potential Pool C's.   I really, REALLY hope Otterbein doesn't get picked if the OAC is fortunate enough to get a C bid.  They are a complete pretender.   I still don't know how they managed to steal victories against ONU and Capital, but Otterbein woud not be anywhere near as  competitive in the playoffs as Ohio Northern or 7-3 Capital.

Interesting observations.

In the podcast, Pat and I talked about how Otterbein is at a distinct SOS disadvantage compared to ONU, Wheaton and North Central. But they're at the top of this h2h/common opponents chain: OTT > ONU > NCC > Wheaton. Not sure what the committee would favor.

In the event of a Wabash loss, I think two-loss ONU has a chance to emerge from that group to be the first North Region team on the Pool C table, because of the huge SOS difference. But it's hard to get a committee to ignore an h2h result, which is usually the right way to decide.

Can anyone tell the kids woke me up before leaving for school this morning and I can't fall back asleep? Wasn't supposed to be up this early aimlessly analyzing potential playoff fields.

Given the quote above, I thought that Keith had assumed a Wabash win, though I do think that a 9-1 Wabash deserves a better seed than #8 and a 2 loss DPU wouldn't deserve a #5 seed (even with my obvious bias).

Personally, I do not think that a 2 loss Wabash deserves a Pool C bid.  And, while I don't think ONU would "drill  Wabash into the ground" if they played, I do think that Northern and perhaps other 2 loss teams in the region would have as good as, if not better, argument for a Pool C bid. 

Is it possible for 2 pool C bids to come from the CCIW in North Central and Wheaton.  Wheaton's playoff record speaks for itself and both of these teams would surely handle a Wabash or Depauw.  Thoughts?

[Ralph Turner]

Please remember that UMHB in Belton TX is just 60 miles up the interstate from Austin, which has very good flight connections.

[wally_wabash]

Wheaton's past playoff record isn't part of what can be considered for selection.  

This was noted earlier, but based on the h2h chain, the order of two loss North region teams has to be ONU then NCC then Wheaton.

[Toby Taff]

ralph,
flying out of or into killeen isn't too bad these days either

[Bob.Gregg]

Wheaton's past playoff record isn't part of what can be considered for selection.  

This was noted earlier, but based on the h2h chain, the order of two loss North region teams has to be ONU then NCC then Wheaton.

You left Otterbein off the food chain, owning a win over Ohio Northern.....
That would make it Ott > ONU > NoCent > Wheaton

Of course, there is that lower OWP thing....


Regional rankings have appeared to look more at record, at least so far....

Here's who I have on the North Pool C board (current overall records):

Wabash (8-1)
Ohio Northern (7-2)
North Central (7-2) (CCIW AQ possible)
Otterbein (7-2)
Wheaton (7-2)

[Blutarsky]

I write this knowing full-well that teams change over the course of the year.  However, after seeing ONU, OTT, and Capital first-hand, I believe that ONU would be the best "2nd choice" from the OAC, if one is selected.  For the life of me, I can't figure out how the Otterbein team I witnessed last Saturday defeated ONU and Cap.  They are pretty banged-up, and don't appear to be playing with much purpose.  If the goal is to truly get the "best teams" in the playoffs, then ONU fills the bill for a Pool C--even with two losses.

[wally_wabash]

Otterbein lost to Marietta, which is unforgiveable so they're out even if they have a win over ONU.  Had Otterbein lost to Cap and MUC, fine.  But not Marietta.  Playoff teams don't lose to Marietta. 

[usee]

New Regional Rankings are in:

North Region
1. Mount Union 8-0 9-0
2. Wittenberg 7-0 9-0
3. Mount St. Joseph 9-0 9-0
4. Case Western Reserve 7-0 9-0
5. Illinois Wesleyan 8-1 8-1
6. Wabash 7-1 8-1
7. Trine 8-1 8-1
8. Ohio Northern 7-2 7-2
9. North Central (Ill.) 7-2 7-2
10. Concordia (Ill.) 8-1 8-1

What I find most interesting about the North rankings is not the appearance of ONU but the inclusion of NCC, which strengthen's ONU's case (win over a regionally ranked opponent).

[HScoach]

Otterbein lost to Marietta, which is unforgiveable so they're out even if they have a win over ONU.  Had Otterbein lost to Cap and MUC, fine.  But not Marietta.  Playoff teams don't lose to Marietta. 

Bingo!

[wally_wabash]

Running through the rankings and assuming nothing about future results, these are the pool C selections that I came up with (using my interpretation of the selection criteria: mainly SOS, h2h, and results vs. regionally ranked opponents)...in order of selection:

St. Thomas
Coe
Kean
Albright
Leb Valley
Wabash

Obviously, these are not the six teams that will be selected.  Lebanon Valley and Albright are playing an elimination game this weekend.  One of those teams will not make the field.  Kean is also playing Montclair State in a game that, if Kean wins, they're probably in.  Montclair State has a really good chance to get in if they win AND Kean doesn't fall out of the rankings. 

Where's UMHB?  Looking strictly at the numbers, UMHB is getting killed on SOS. On my board, they're the first team left out...which means if we assume that one of Leb Valley and Albright are out, then UMHB is in.  BUT, we get to a very, very interesting situation because once Wabash goes off the board, ONU comes on and ONU's SOS kills everybody and they have a win over a regionally ranked opponent whereas nobody else on the board does.  Do those things trump the extra loss and get ONU in ahead of teams like UMHB, St. Norbert, or Montclair State?  That I don't know. 

I should also say that I don't think there's any way that UMHB gets left out, regardless of what the SOS numbers say. I can't envision the committee leaving them out and telling all of us that UMHB wasn't as good as 2 runners up in the West and 2-3 runners up in the East.  That isn't happening...which of course puts Wabash squarely on the bubble.  Wabash will get a SOS boost from this weekend's Monon Bell game, which will help (provided the LGs can win). 

[Bob.Gregg]

Otterbein lost to Marietta....  Playoff teams don't lose to Marietta.  

While that may be true, here's the deal:

If playoff teams don't lose to Marietta, playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to Marietta....there goes ONU.

If playoff teams don't lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to teams who lose to Marietta, so much for North Central.

And, finally, if playoff teams don't lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to teams who lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lost to teams who lose to teams who lose to teams who lose to Marietta, good bye Wheaton.

Now, that we've removed the Ott., ONU, NCC and Wheaton, there's nobody left in Pool C from the North except Wabash!  The rest of the field is happy to hear about the new criteria....

[wally_wabash]

Har dee har, Bob...

If losing to Marietta wasn't a mortal sin, Otterbein would be ranked ahead of Ohio Northern (or ranked at all for that matter), which they are not.  It would seem that the group of people responsible for the regional rankings would agree that one shouldn't lose to Marietta and expect to be considered for an invite to the tournament.   

[Mr. Ypsi]

It may not be Marietta (and, of course, officially it isn't); Ott has BY FAR the worst SOS of the four 2-loss teams being mentioned.

[Bob.Gregg]

wally, I wasn't disagreeing with you....I was taking your stance to its logical conclusion.  That conclusion results in Wabash getting in, win or lose in the Bell game....there's nobody else worth considering after the Marietta Domino effect is applied to the rankings.....