Pool C -- 2009

[Bill McCabe]

Running through the rankings and assuming nothing about future results, these are the pool C selections that I came up with (using my interpretation of the selection criteria: mainly SOS, h2h, and results vs. regionally ranked opponents)...in order of selection:

St. Thomas
Coe
Kean
Albright
Leb Valley
Wabash

Obviously, these are not the six teams that will be selected.  Lebanon Valley and Albright are playing an elimination game this weekend.  One of those teams will not make the field.  Kean is also playing Montclair State in a game that, if Kean wins, they're probably in.  Montclair State has a really good chance to get in if they win AND Kean doesn't fall out of the rankings. 

Where's UMHB?  Looking strictly at the numbers, UMHB is getting killed on SOS. On my board, they're the first team left out...which means if we assume that one of Leb Valley and Albright are out, then UMHB is in.  BUT, we get to a very, very interesting situation because once Wabash goes off the board, ONU comes on and ONU's SOS kills everybody and they have a win over a regionally ranked opponent whereas nobody else on the board does.  Do those things trump the extra loss and get ONU in ahead of teams like UMHB, St. Norbert, or Montclair State?  That I don't know. 

I should also say that I don't think there's any way that UMHB gets left out, regardless of what the SOS numbers say. I can't envision the committee leaving them out and telling all of us that UMHB wasn't as good as 2 runners up in the West and 2-3 runners up in the East.  That isn't happening...which of course puts Wabash squarely on the bubble.  Wabash will get a SOS boost from this weekend's Monon Bell game, which will help (provided the LGs can win). 

As a UMHB fan, this is the type of NCAA scenario that makes me really nervous.  It has happened to UMHB before.

[altor]

Why, because it's a short flight?

For several reasons.  The biggest reason is that the VA/NC area is on a bit of a mini-island.  Only so many playoff teams can be sent to/from there.  It fixes a lot of headaches to send UMHB there.  Second, even though we all know better, UMHB is about a 6 seed at the moment and Hampden-Sydney is about a 2-3 seed (going off the Regional rankings today).  That makes for a "balanced bracket."

I think it's more likely the low-seeded USAC champ goes to high seed H-SC.

As Gray Fox hinted, once you commit to a flight, it's not necessarily important that it be to the next-closest school.

True, but "teams will be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity."  (from the handbook)

Also, I'm not sure UMHB hosting is out of the question. But if they do fly out, I wonder if consideration is given to who is near a major airport, or are they charter flights? (I seem to remember some of the PLU stories sounding like commercial flights)

I'm pretty sure UMHB is flying somewhere.  Either that or they are going to Mississippi (which I don't think anybody wants).  Or they will be at home, as some or worried about.

[Ralph Turner]

Running through the rankings and assuming nothing about future results, these are the pool C selections that I came up with (using my interpretation of the selection criteria: mainly SOS, h2h, and results vs. regionally ranked opponents)...in order of selection:

St. Thomas
Coe
Kean
Albright
Leb Valley
Wabash

Obviously, these are not the six teams that will be selected.  Lebanon Valley and Albright are playing an elimination game this weekend.  One of those teams will not make the field.  Kean is also playing Montclair State in a game that, if Kean wins, they're probably in.  Montclair State has a really good chance to get in if they win AND Kean doesn't fall out of the rankings.  

Where's UMHB?  Looking strictly at the numbers, UMHB is getting killed on SOS. On my board, they're the first team left out...which means if we assume that one of Leb Valley and Albright are out, then UMHB is in.  BUT, we get to a very, very interesting situation because once Wabash goes off the board, ONU comes on and ONU's SOS kills everybody and they have a win over a regionally ranked opponent whereas nobody else on the board does.  Do those things trump the extra loss and get ONU in ahead of teams like UMHB, St. Norbert, or Montclair State?  That I don't know.  

I should also say that I don't think there's any way that UMHB gets left out, regardless of what the SOS numbers say. I can't envision the committee leaving them out and telling all of us that UMHB wasn't as good as 2 runners up in the West and 2-3 runners up in the East.  That isn't happening...which of course puts Wabash squarely on the bubble.  Wabash will get a SOS boost from this weekend's Monon Bell game, which will help (provided the LGs can win).  

As a UMHB fan, this is the type of NCAA scenario that makes me really nervous.  It has happened to UMHB before.

... back in 2000.

Bill, whom does UMHB have for non-conference games in 2010?

[bleedpurple]

As a UWW fan, obviously, I'm happy to see UWW seeded #1 in the west. i am fully expecting a move north, but it would be fun to stay in the west to see if there could be a rematch of the classic 2005 game against Linfield.  

I'd like to posit a serious set of questions:

Is it possible/likely that the #6 seed in the south is still the 3rd best team in the nation? From all I can gather...I'd say yes!  Or is the general consensus that Mississippi College is? Until the upset MC put on UMHB (UWW lost to UWSP last year!), I thought there was a dropoff after MUC, UWW, and UMHB. Is there a general consensus that has changed? Maybe there's a top 4 now? Just wondering....

[AUKaz00]

Running through the rankings and assuming nothing about future results, these are the pool C selections that I came up with (using my interpretation of the selection criteria: mainly SOS, h2h, and results vs. regionally ranked opponents)...in order of selection:

St. Thomas
Coe
Kean
Albright
Leb Valley
Wabash

Obviously, these are not the six teams that will be selected.  Lebanon Valley and Albright are playing an elimination game this weekend.  One of those teams will not make the field.  Kean is also playing Montclair State in a game that, if Kean wins, they're probably in.  Montclair State has a really good chance to get in if they win AND Kean doesn't fall out of the rankings. 

Where's UMHB?  Looking strictly at the numbers, UMHB is getting killed on SOS. On my board, they're the first team left out...which means if we assume that one of Leb Valley and Albright are out, then UMHB is in.  BUT, we get to a very, very interesting situation because once Wabash goes off the board, ONU comes on and ONU's SOS kills everybody and they have a win over a regionally ranked opponent whereas nobody else on the board does.  Do those things trump the extra loss and get ONU in ahead of teams like UMHB, St. Norbert, or Montclair State?  That I don't know. 

I should also say that I don't think there's any way that UMHB gets left out, regardless of what the SOS numbers say. I can't envision the committee leaving them out and telling all of us that UMHB wasn't as good as 2 runners up in the West and 2-3 runners up in the East.  That isn't happening...which of course puts Wabash squarely on the bubble.  Wabash will get a SOS boost from this weekend's Monon Bell game, which will help (provided the LGs can win). 

As a UMHB fan, this is the type of NCAA scenario that makes me really nervous.  It has happened to UMHB before.

To help sort out the 3 East teams on this list, Leb Valley and Albright play each other, so the loser will have 2 loses and likely drop out of consideration.  Additionally, both Kean and Montclair cannot finish with 1 loss since they play each other in what has unfolded as a title game in the NJAC.  So, the winner gets the pool A and the loser likely falls out of consideration.  So, that is two spots from the above list opening up regardless of results for potential Pool C candidates.

[wally_wabash]

wally, I wasn't disagreeing with you....I was taking your stance to its logical conclusion.  That conclusion results in Wabash getting in, win or lose in the Bell game....there's nobody else worth considering after the Marietta Domino effect is applied to the rankings.....

Fair enough, but I think the beginning of the logic is also its conclusion...losing to Marietta is a far, far bigger crime than losing to a team that lost to Marietta. 

And I don't think Wabash needs to be considered for the playoffs if they lose on Saturday.  I don't think anybody in the Wabash camp thinks so.  If the best win Wabash has this season is at Allegheny, then Wabash is not a playoff team.  As has been put forth by some others earlier this week, Wabash's playoffs start this weekend. 

To help sort out the 3 East teams on this list, Leb Valley and Albright play each other, so the loser will have 2 loses and likely drop out of consideration.  Additionally, both Kean and Montclair cannot finish with 1 loss since they play each other in what has unfolded as a title game in the NJAC.  So, the winner gets the pool A and the loser likely falls out of consideration.  So, that is two spots from the above list opening up regardless of results for potential Pool C candidates.

That's absolutely right.  I had a feeling there was something I missed about those eastern teams.  There will be two spots available...if ONU gets to the table it is going to be very, very interesting to see if their SOS and regional win trump a number of 1-loss teams. 

[Breckenridgebear]

wally, I wasn't disagreeing with you....I was taking your stance to its logical conclusion.  That conclusion results in Wabash getting in, win or lose in the Bell game....there's nobody else worth considering after the Marietta Domino effect is applied to the rankings.....

Fair enough, but I think the beginning of the logic is also its conclusion...losing to Marietta is a far, far bigger crime than losing to a team that lost to Marietta. 

And I don't think Wabash needs to be considered for the playoffs if they lose on Saturday.  I don't think anybody in the Wabash camp thinks so.  If the best win Wabash has this season is at Allegheny, then Wabash is not a playoff team.  As has been put forth by some others earlier this week, Wabash's playoffs start this weekend. 

To help sort out the 3 East teams on this list, Leb Valley and Albright play each other, so the loser will have 2 loses and likely drop out of consideration.  Additionally, both Kean and Montclair cannot finish with 1 loss since they play each other in what has unfolded as a title game in the NJAC.  So, the winner gets the pool A and the loser likely falls out of consideration.  So, that is two spots from the above list opening up regardless of results for potential Pool C candidates.

That's absolutely right.  I had a feeling there was something I missed about those eastern teams.  There will be two spots available...if ONU gets to the table it is going to be very, very interesting to see if their SOS and regional win trump a number of 1-loss teams. 

Playoffs! Playoffs dawally_dabash? Dabash is going to be lucky to win another game! Playoffs?

[HScoach]

Otterbein lost to Marietta....  Playoff teams don't lose to Marietta.  

While that may be true, here's the deal:

If playoff teams don't lose to Marietta, playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to Marietta....there goes ONU.

If playoff teams don't lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to teams who lose to Marietta, so much for North Central.

And, finally, if playoff teams don't lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lose to teams who lose to teams who lose to Marietta, and playoff teams don't lost to teams who lose to teams who lose to teams who lose to Marietta, good bye Wheaton.

Now, that we've removed the Ott., ONU, NCC and Wheaton, there's nobody left in Pool C from the North except Wabash!  The rest of the field is happy to hear about the new criteria....

You've obviously never witnessed first hand the ineptitude of Marietta.  That loss alone should cost Otterbein a potential spot in NEXT YEAR'S field too.

[smedindy]

Now, Marietta has had winning records TWICE this decade.

Up in my area, there is the consistency that is Hamline. If they beat St. Olaf they'll go 5-5.

However, from 1999-2008, they won 2 games five times and 3 games five times.

2004-2007, they were 3-7, 1-7 MAC.

Couldn't do that if you tried...

[K-Mack]

K-Mack:  I would love to see that bracket.  It creates much more interesting regions built around Mount and Whitewater tha I expect.  I might be in the minority, but I really like Mount getting paired with non-traditional North Region teams.  The new opponents create some excitement in the early rounds that we wouldn't normally have by playing the NCAC or Heartland teams. 

Only thing I don't like is Wabash getting in over Ohio Northern.  I realize that a 9-1 Wabash will be selected by the NCAA before an 8-2 ONU, but Northern would drill Wabash into the ground if they actually played. 

One last statement about potential Pool C's.   I really, REALLY hope Otterbein doesn't get picked if the OAC is fortunate enough to get a C bid.  They are a complete pretender.   I still don't know how they managed to steal victories against ONU and Capital, but Otterbein woud not be anywhere near as  competitive in the playoffs as Ohio Northern or 7-3 Capital.

Interesting observations.

In the podcast, Pat and I talked about how Otterbein is at a distinct SOS disadvantage compared to ONU, Wheaton and North Central. But they're at the top of this h2h/common opponents chain: OTT > ONU > NCC > Wheaton. Not sure what the committee would favor.

In the event of a Wabash loss, I think two-loss ONU has a chance to emerge from that group to be the first North Region team on the Pool C table, because of the huge SOS difference. But it's hard to get a committee to ignore an h2h result, which is usually the right way to decide.

Can anyone tell the kids woke me up before leaving for school this morning and I can't fall back asleep? Wasn't supposed to be up this early aimlessly analyzing potential playoff fields.

Given the quote above, I thought that Keith had assumed a Wabash win, though I do think that a 9-1 Wabash deserves a better seed than #8 and a 2 loss DPU wouldn't deserve a #5 seed (even with my obvious bias).

Personally, I do not think that a 2 loss Wabash deserves a Pool C bid.  And, while I don't think ONU would "drill  Wabash into the ground" if they played, I do think that Northern and perhaps other 2 loss teams in the region would have as good as, if not better, argument for a Pool C bid. 

Is it possible for 2 pool C bids to come from the CCIW in North Central and Wheaton.  Wheaton's playoff record speaks for itself and both of these teams would surely handle a Wabash or Depauw.  Thoughts?

Yes, it's possible.

No, I don't think it's likely. ONU appears to be in front of both of them.

I don't know that they'd "surely handle" a Wabash or DePauw, but CCIW teams fare well against everyone but OAC teams.

[K-Mack]

If the goal is to truly get the "best teams" in the playoffs, then ONU fills the bill for a Pool C--even with two losses.

It's not. It's to ensure everyone has fair access to the playoffs, where the best among those 32 can sort themselves out.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't want to see ONU in, and I think they have a legitimate shot.

[K-Mack]

BTW,
not sure if you folks saw this, but I took yesterday's experiment and expanded it on the blog ... three mock brackets:

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2009/11/11/atn-mock-brackets/

Okay, back to Pool C ...

Running through the rankings and assuming nothing about future results, these are the pool C selections that I came up with (using my interpretation of the selection criteria: mainly SOS, h2h, and results vs. regionally ranked opponents)...in order of selection:

St. Thomas
Coe
Kean
Albright
Leb Valley
Wabash

Obviously, these are not the six teams that will be selected.  Lebanon Valley and Albright are playing an elimination game this weekend.  One of those teams will not make the field.  Kean is also playing Montclair State in a game that, if Kean wins, they're probably in.  Montclair State has a really good chance to get in if they win AND Kean doesn't fall out of the rankings. 

Where's UMHB?  Looking strictly at the numbers, UMHB is getting killed on SOS. On my board, they're the first team left out...which means if we assume that one of Leb Valley and Albright are out, then UMHB is in.  BUT, we get to a very, very interesting situation because once Wabash goes off the board, ONU comes on and ONU's SOS kills everybody and they have a win over a regionally ranked opponent whereas nobody else on the board does.  Do those things trump the extra loss and get ONU in ahead of teams like UMHB, St. Norbert, or Montclair State?  That I don't know. 

I should also say that I don't think there's any way that UMHB gets left out, regardless of what the SOS numbers say. I can't envision the committee leaving them out and telling all of us that UMHB wasn't as good as 2 runners up in the West and 2-3 runners up in the East.  That isn't happening...which of course puts Wabash squarely on the bubble.  Wabash will get a SOS boost from this weekend's Monon Bell game, which will help (provided the LGs can win). 

Wally,
I did the same thing re: UMHB when I was assembling mock brackets. Their numbers aren't the greatest, but I really couldn't imagine them being left out. If so, the cries would be that it's financially motivated, to save the cost of a flight, although we saw last year that the selection committee appears to be on our side and there's a "bean-counter" that has to approve the bracket and does so with costs in mind. So I think the committee, if it's close, is going to find every way to get UMHB in, and nobody on the bubble is really going to honestly think they're better.

But, if we advocate sticking to the criteria, and we do, the only thing I really see in UMHB's favor is the word "results" against regionally-ranked teams ... in other words, it's not just trying to make the case that 0-1 vs. RRTs is better than 0-0, but that they lost by 3 on the road, etc. I don't know how ambiguous "results" is supposed to be.

Also, as you mention ... I think you're aware that Kean/Montclair State is an automatic bid and the loser is a two-loss Pool C candidate.

Only one of LV/Albright will be on the table.

Wabash is not guaranteed to beat DePauw.

ONU is trouble if it gets on the board.

A lot of variables, for sure ...

[wally_wabash]

That's right, Keith.  I picked my Pool C's today based on the results through week 10, the regional rankings released today, and NOT assuming any future results.  This was simply a snapshot of who I think gets selected if they had to be selected at this moment.  The board will certainly look different after the Albright/LV and Wabash/DPU games....as well any other unforeseen craziness that might happen (see week 11, 2008). 

[TC]

Now, Marietta has had winning records TWICE this decade.

Up in my area, there is the consistency that is Hamline. If they beat St. Olaf they'll go 5-5.

However, from 1999-2008, they won 2 games five times and 3 games five times.

2004-2007, they were 3-7, 1-7 MAC.

Couldn't do that if you tried...

They play in the MIAC, not the MAC, of course. 

UW-River Falls is pretty similar:  a 4-year run of 3-7/2-5 from '05-'08 and at least one of those records every year from 2002 through 2009. 

[K-Mack]

That's right, Keith.  I picked my Pool C's today based on the results through week 10, the regional rankings released today, and NOT assuming any future results.  This was simply a snapshot of who I think gets selected if they had to be selected at this moment.  The board will certainly look different after the Albright/LV and Wabash/DPU games....as well any other unforeseen craziness that might happen (see week 11, 2008). 

I read that carefully and put the "as you mention" in there to let you know I had I wasn't disagreeing, just furthering the point (since I wanted to post about similar things, your post was a good jumping off point). The "now" board is interesting, but I'm enjoying speculating about what might be the case on Sunday