Pool C -- 2009

[wally_wabash]

That's right, Keith.  I picked my Pool C's today based on the results through week 10, the regional rankings released today, and NOT assuming any future results.  This was simply a snapshot of who I think gets selected if they had to be selected at this moment.  The board will certainly look different after the Albright/LV and Wabash/DPU games....as well any other unforeseen craziness that might happen (see week 11, 2008). 

I read that carefully and put the "as you mention" in there to let you know I had I wasn't disagreeing, just furthering the point (since I wanted to post about similar things, your post was a good jumping off point). The "now" board is interesting, but I'm enjoying speculating about what might be the case on Sunday 

What I got out of my little exercise was that Wabash isn't nearly as "safe" as I would have thought before today.  I was surprised that two West teams were relatively easy selections before any of the "first in line"s from the other regions which really makes St. Thomas and Coe safe if they win this weekend.  The LGs are quite obviously in a must-win situation, but it may actually take the SOS boost that they'll get from DePauw to get into the field.  At best, I think Wabash would be the fourth team selected (behind the two west teams and the Albright/LV winner)...and more likely fifth if you want to assume that UMHB is getting in, SOS be damned (which I do).  Fifth best on the board...according to me.  I'm not sure that I can sleep easy thinking that my view and the committee's view agree to within one or two teams.  As nerve wracking as this Bell week is, even if Wabash gets a satisfying win on Saturday, I'm afraid I'll have to wait one more night to get rest easy.   

[K-Mack]

That's right, Keith.  I picked my Pool C's today based on the results through week 10, the regional rankings released today, and NOT assuming any future results.  This was simply a snapshot of who I think gets selected if they had to be selected at this moment.  The board will certainly look different after the Albright/LV and Wabash/DPU games....as well any other unforeseen craziness that might happen (see week 11, 2008). 

I read that carefully and put the "as you mention" in there to let you know I had I wasn't disagreeing, just furthering the point (since I wanted to post about similar things, your post was a good jumping off point). The "now" board is interesting, but I'm enjoying speculating about what might be the case on Sunday 

What I got out of my little exercise was that Wabash isn't nearly as "safe" as I would have thought before today.  I was surprised that two West teams were relatively easy selections before any of the "first in line"s from the other regions which really makes St. Thomas and Coe safe if they win this weekend.  The LGs are quite obviously in a must-win situation, but it may actually take the SOS boost that they'll get from DePauw to get into the field.  At best, I think Wabash would be the fourth team selected (behind the two west teams and the Albright/LV winner)...and more likely fifth if you want to assume that UMHB is getting in, SOS be damned (which I do).  Fifth best on the board...according to me.  I'm not sure that I can sleep easy thinking that my view and the committee's view agree to within one or two teams.  As nerve wracking as this Bell week is, even if Wabash gets a satisfying win on Saturday, I'm afraid I'll have to wait one more night to get rest easy.   

Such is life when you don't earn the AQ.

I think you're analysis is pretty good though, if that's any consolation

[wally_wabash]

That's right, Keith.  I picked my Pool C's today based on the results through week 10, the regional rankings released today, and NOT assuming any future results.  This was simply a snapshot of who I think gets selected if they had to be selected at this moment.  The board will certainly look different after the Albright/LV and Wabash/DPU games....as well any other unforeseen craziness that might happen (see week 11, 2008). 

I read that carefully and put the "as you mention" in there to let you know I had I wasn't disagreeing, just furthering the point (since I wanted to post about similar things, your post was a good jumping off point). The "now" board is interesting, but I'm enjoying speculating about what might be the case on Sunday 

What I got out of my little exercise was that Wabash isn't nearly as "safe" as I would have thought before today.  I was surprised that two West teams were relatively easy selections before any of the "first in line"s from the other regions which really makes St. Thomas and Coe safe if they win this weekend.  The LGs are quite obviously in a must-win situation, but it may actually take the SOS boost that they'll get from DePauw to get into the field.  At best, I think Wabash would be the fourth team selected (behind the two west teams and the Albright/LV winner)...and more likely fifth if you want to assume that UMHB is getting in, SOS be damned (which I do).  Fifth best on the board...according to me.  I'm not sure that I can sleep easy thinking that my view and the committee's view agree to within one or two teams.  As nerve wracking as this Bell week is, even if Wabash gets a satisfying win on Saturday, I'm afraid I'll have to wait one more night to get rest easy.   

Such is life when you don't earn the AQ.

I think you're analysis is pretty good though, if that's any consolation

For sure.  This is the first time I've had the opportunity to do the Pool C dance...and frankly I don't like it.  I'd definitely prefer Wabash to just beat Wittenberg and take the guesswork out of the last week of the season.   

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wally, I don't know if this will give you any comfort (considering how I tend to do in your pickems ), but IMO a 9-1 Wabash is definitely in, an 8-2 Wabash is definitely out.

[Ralph Turner]

A little perspective about UMHB...

Look at the Open Dates link on the home page for 2010...

http://www.d3football.com/opendates/2010

Week #1 UMHB  See below

Week #2 UMHB  See below

Week #7 UMHB and Salisbury and LaGrange and Alfred

Now let's think this one through at the respective head coaches.

Salisbury -- South Region opponent.  A loss to UMHB probably knocks you out of Pool  B consideration.

LaGrange -- South Region opponent.  Ditto

Alfred -- Non-region game, so a loss won't hurt you.  Why fly to Texas?  Or, do you split the cost and pay half for UMHB to come to beautiful upstate New York when the leaves are turning for a single game?


Let's look who also has an open date in the first two weeks of the season.

September 04, 2010 (13 schools)  IN-region foes for UMHB are marked.  Recent non-conference UMHB foes are also marked (#)
Alfred
Augsburg*
Carthage*
DePauw*
Earlham
Fitchburg State
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Rose-Hulman
Salisbury*
Simpson*
UW-Stevens Point*
UW-Stout*
Willamette*#

September 11, 2010 (9 schools)
Alfred
Fitchburg State
Frostburg State*
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Simpson*
UW-Stevens Point*
UW-Whitewater*#
Wesley*
Willamette*#

Kinda interesting isn't it.

Who wants to play UMHB?

[Ralph Turner]

Wally, I don't know if this will give you any comfort (considering how I tend to do in your pickems ), but IMO a 9-1 Wabash is definitely in, an 8-2 Wabash is definitely out.

+1!  I strongly agree!

[K-Mack]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

[usee]

If Wabsh doesn't win this weekend (and I am not advocating that--I am a closet Wabash fan from years ago) and ONU is the 1st team on the North pool C board it will indeed be interesting vs other teams criteria. In fact, if the committee goes with ONU over a 1 loss team then up pops NCC which has very similar numbers as ONU (except a critical win vs a RRO).

[Toby Taff]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

That would be nice K-Mack, but I don't think it will happen.

[crudbdad]

Running through the rankings and assuming nothing about future results, these are the pool C selections that I came up with (using my interpretation of the selection criteria: mainly SOS, h2h, and results vs. regionally ranked opponents)...in order of selection:

St. Thomas
Coe
Kean
Albright
Leb Valley
Wabash

Obviously, these are not the six teams that will be selected.  Lebanon Valley and Albright are playing an elimination game this weekend.  One of those teams will not make the field.  Kean is also playing Montclair State in a game that, if Kean wins, they're probably in.  Montclair State has a really good chance to get in if they win AND Kean doesn't fall out of the rankings. 

Where's UMHB?  Looking strictly at the numbers, UMHB is getting killed on SOS. On my board, they're the first team left out...which means if we assume that one of Leb Valley and Albright are out, then UMHB is in.  BUT, we get to a very, very interesting situation because once Wabash goes off the board, ONU comes on and ONU's SOS kills everybody and they have a win over a regionally ranked opponent whereas nobody else on the board does.  Do those things trump the extra loss and get ONU in ahead of teams like UMHB, St. Norbert, or Montclair State?  That I don't know. 

I should also say that I don't think there's any way that UMHB gets left out, regardless of what the SOS numbers say. I can't envision the committee leaving them out and telling all of us that UMHB wasn't as good as 2 runners up in the West and 2-3 runners up in the East.  That isn't happening...which of course puts Wabash squarely on the bubble.  Wabash will get a SOS boost from this weekend's Monon Bell game, which will help (provided the LGs can win). 

As a UMHB fan, this is the type of NCAA scenario that makes me really nervous.  It has happened to UMHB before.

THE LONGEST DAY was a great movie, for me it will be Sunday. Does anyone know what the NCAA number means on the Strength of Schedule page? My thoughts on Pool C.
Not sure about the Rose Bowl Rule but Cal Lutheran/Redlands loser is out. If Kean wins Montclair State out with 2 losses. Montclair State wins they are a toss up on Op and SOS#
Wabash out with a loss in Monon Bell and on bubble with a win.
Albright/LV loser out.
Top 5 Pool C St Thomas; Coe; Kean(assume win); Lebanon Valley(assume win); UMHB;
Not sure on no. 6 as I don't know the Rose Bowl Rule in SCIAC. Probably put Wabash in 6 spot if they win or pick-em between Ohio Northern and North Central.
Wally good analogy but disagree on your top 6 as 2 of the 6 will be eliminated and maybe 3 if Wabash loses.
This is more fun than the BCS but I sure wish UMHB had the AQ.

[BoBo]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

That would be nice K-Mack, but I don't think it will happen.

The new WIAC directive on travel prohibits it, I think.    Unless it's a one game deal to be played at Whitewater.

[Toby Taff]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

That would be nice K-Mack, but I don't think it will happen.

The new WIAC directive on travel prohibits it, I think.    Unless it's a one game deal to be played at Whitewater.

Money's tight these days, but Wisconsin is closer than Oregon.

[K-Mack]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

That would be nice K-Mack, but I don't think it will happen.

The new WIAC directive on travel prohibits it, I think.    Unless it's a one game deal to be played at Whitewater.

Money's tight these days, but Wisconsin is closer than Oregon.

I hadn't noticed the first time, but Wesley has an open date as well. Considering they're having even more trouble scheduling, with no conference and nobody wanting to take an L, a UMHB-Wesley series on the 11th might work.

I understand the WIAC travel restriction, but they gotta play somebody. Unless UWW is going to enter the business of guarantees, I think they're going to have a hard time convincing the small private schools with open dates in driving distance to pick up a near-certain loss, the same way they've been having.

I've been wrong before though ...

It gets lonely at the top, or so say the coaches of top teams who are always telling me no one will play them.

[MonroviaCat]

Not sure about the Rose Bowl Rule but Cal Lutheran/Redlands loser is out. If Kean wins Montclair State out with 2 losses. Montclair State wins they are a toss up on Op and SOS#

Thought I'd clarify this for you (it sounds like you're saying you don't know how the rose bowl rule works--my apologies if I misunderstood).  In the SCIAC, in the event of a 3 way tie where each team has beaten one of the other teams, the team who has not gone to the playoffs in the longest time gets the automatic bid.  The scenario this year would be:  Redlands beats Cal Lu this weekend and Oxy beats Whittier.  This results in a 3 way tie for first where Redlands beat CalLu, CalLu beat Oxy and Oxy beat Redlands.  Rosebowl rule would send Cal Lu as the Pool A qualifier.  However, keep in mind that Redlands will have finished with only one loss (an OT loss to Oxy) on the season and will have beaten Cal LU (pool A) head to head---  I think there is a strong argument for them in Pool C consideration.  But given the geographical and financial considerations, I would not be the least bit surprised to see them left out.

[crudbdad]

Not sure about the Rose Bowl Rule but Cal Lutheran/Redlands loser is out. If Kean wins Montclair State out with 2 losses. Montclair State wins they are a toss up on Op and SOS#

Thought I'd clarify this for you (it sounds like you're saying you don't know how the rose bowl rule works--my apologies if I misunderstood).  In the SCIAC, in the event of a 3 way tie where each team has beaten one of the other teams, the team who has not gone to the playoffs in the longest time gets the automatic bid.  The scenario this year would be:  Redlands beats Cal Lu this weekend and Oxy beats Whittier.  This results in a 3 way tie for first where Redlands beat CalLu, CalLu beat Oxy and Oxy beat Redlands.  Rosebowl rule would send Cal Lu as the Pool A qualifier.  However, keep in mind that Redlands will have finished with only one loss (an OT loss to Oxy) on the season and will have beaten Cal LU (pool A) head to head---  I think there is a strong argument for them in Pool C consideration.  But given the geographical and financial considerations, I would not be the least bit surprised to see them left out.

Thanks, that helps clarify my confusion. So in that scenario Redlands gets in my Pool C as number 6 based on my previous post and the game results this weekend.