Pool C -- 2009

[wally_wabash]

The problem Redlands has is that as soon as they beat CalLu, CalLu is no longer regionally ranked. 

If we assume that the pool C teams right now would be St. Thomas, Coe, the Albright/LVC winner, Wabash, and UMHB (which is how it would seem to play out given the stats we have at this moment), then the next four on the board are (in no order):
Montclair State
ONU
Redlands
Dickinson

Of those four, Redlands has the lowest SOS (which will get a boost this weekend) and doesn't have a win over a regionally ranked team.  I think Redlands can get to the table, but I don't think they would be selected without some help (i.e. Coe or St. Thomas losing). 

[BoBo]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

That would be nice K-Mack, but I don't think it will happen.

The new WIAC directive on travel prohibits it, I think.    Unless it's a one game deal to be played at Whitewater.

Money's tight these days, but Wisconsin is closer than Oregon.

I hadn't noticed the first time, but Wesley has an open date as well. Considering they're having even more trouble scheduling, with no conference and nobody wanting to take an L, a UMHB-Wesley series on the 11th might work.

I understand the WIAC travel restriction, but they gotta play somebody. Unless UWW is going to enter the business of guarantees, I think they're going to have a hard time convincing the small private schools with open dates in driving distance to pick up a near-certain loss, the same way they've been having.

I've been wrong before though ...

It gets lonely at the top, or so say the coaches of top teams who are always telling me no one will play them.

That's been talked about. But, if they're not permitted to spend the money they don't have to take a road trip to Texas, should they be allowed to spend similar amounts of money they don't have to pay someone to come to the Perk? They're probably going to end up playing a nearby NAIA program like St. Xavier or even DII and let the chips fall where they may.

[MonroviaCat]

The problem Redlands has is that as soon as they beat CalLu, CalLu is no longer regionally ranked. 

If we assume that the pool C teams right now would be St. Thomas, Coe, the Albright/LVC winner, Wabash, and UMHB (which is how it would seem to play out given the stats we have at this moment), then the next four on the board are (in no order):
Montclair State
ONU
Redlands
Dickinson

Of those four, Redlands has the lowest SOS (which will get a boost this weekend) and doesn't have a win over a regionally ranked team.  I think Redlands can get to the table, but I don't think they would be selected without some help (i.e. Coe or St. Thomas losing). 

Of couse---Montclaire State will either be a Pool A (NJAC winner) or will have a 2nd loss, ONU already has 2 losses, and Dickinson has what looks like a tough game against Ursinus....  BUT, I still think the biggest problem for Redlands will be their location and the NCAA not wanting fly two SCIAC teams (nor rematch them a week after they play each other)

[Bob.Gregg]

By the way, BoBo, love the video and the way Beaver ran, along with the quote in your signature line:  "UWW's Justin Beaver...with emphasis & in style!!"

Can't help but also notice the lack of style shown by teammate #3 with his after-the-tackle illegal block in the back...Notice, in the one view, the game official reaching for his belt to throw the penalty flag.  Gotta love a teammate that gives up 15 of my hard-earned, emphatic style-laden rushing yards...

[wally_wabash]

Montclair State would have two losses, but they would still likely get to the table, unless they fell behind Springfield in the rankings (entirely possible).  Springfield would probalby actually grade out higher than Montclair State as a 2-loss team (much better SOS). 

I've got 13 teams on my Pool C list.  Redlands has the 13th best SOS on that list.  Redlands is also third in line in their own region to even get into a discussion for a Pool C bid.  All of the info available right now suggests that Redlands needs help.  In the spirit of transparency, here's a walkthrough of my methodology:

The first four teams at the table are:
East - Albright (regional record 7-1, SOS .503, record against regionally ranked teams 0-1)
North - Wabash (7-1, .497, 0-1)
South - UMHB (6-1, .482, 0-1)
West - St. Thomas (8-1, ..536, 0-1)
:: Records are all essentially equal here, St. Thomas played the stronger schedule (per the NCAA's formula)...St. Thomas is the first team selected.  Next team from the West is Coe and they are on the table. 

Second set of four:
East - Albright (7-1, .503, 0-1)
North - Wabash (7-1, .497, 0-1)
South - UMHB (6-1, .482, 0-1)
West - Coe (8-1, .529, 0-1)
:: Same situation...Coe and St. Thomas actually are nearly identical.  Coe is the selection.  Redlands moves to the table from the West. 

Thrid set:
East - Albright (7-1, .503, 0-1)
North - Wabash (7-1, .497, 0-1)
South - UMHB (6-1, .482, 0-1)
West - Redlands (7-1, .464, 0-0)
:: Albright and Wabash are essentially equal, Albright has a slightly better schedule.  Depending on how you interpret "results vs. regionally ranked opponents", you could see that Wabash lost by a last second field goal to the #2 team in their region while Albright got pummeled by the #1 team in their region...for my purposes I'm sticking with a wins are wins and losses are losses approach, so Albright gets the nod just barely.  Worth noting here that I'm going to skip LVC...LVC and Albright have what amount to identical resumés...the winner will likely be selected here, the loser is out.  Also, since Montclair State is going to be Pool A or suffer a second loss and likely drop behind Springfield, I'll move Springfield to the table from the East. 

Fourth set:
East - Springfield (7-2, .567, 0-2)
North - Wabash (7-1, .497, 0-1)
South - UMHB (6-1, .482, 0-1)
West - Redlands (7-1, .464, 0-0)
:: Enormous SOS for Springfield, but with no wins over regionally ranked teams, it's hard to like them over 1-loss teams.  Wabash is the selection here.  ONU moves to the table from the North. 

Fifth set:
East - Springfield (7-2, .567, 0-2)
North - ONU (7-2, .571, 1-1)
South - UMHB (6-1, .482, 0-1)
West - Redlands (7-1, .464, 0-0)
:: This is where it gets tricky.  ONU has two losses, but they have a tremendous SOS and they're the first team on the board that has actually beaten somebody notable (defined here as a regionally ranked team).  I'm putting UMHB in at this point over the 2-loss teams.  Dickinson moves to the table for the final selection....noteworthy at this point that teams like W&J, St. Norbert, North Central, Otterbein, Wheaton, and Montclair State would never even be discussed if the selection plays out like this. 

Anyway, on to the final set of four:
East - Springfield (7-2, .567, 0-2)
North - ONU (7-2, .571, 1-1)
South - Dickinson (8-1, .508, 0-1)
West - Redlands (7-1, .464, 0-0)
:: I think the decision is between ONU and Dickinson, and it all comes down to whether or not the committee values that SOS and the win over a regionally ranked team more than they devalue that second overall loss (one of which is Mount Union which is often a mulligan for OAC teams).  Honestly, I can't decide. 

So my final selections (altered a bit from yesterday to account for Albright/LVC and Kean/Montclair State) are: St. Thomas, Coe, Albright/LVC winner, Wabash, UMHB, and then either ONU or Dickinson...either would be a fair final selection. 

[desertcat1]

nice work wally.... 

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

By the way, BoBo, love the video and the way Beaver ran, along with the quote in your signature line:  "UWW's Justin Beaver...with emphasis & in style!!"

Can't help but also notice the lack of style shown by teammate #3 with his after-the-tackle illegal block in the back...Notice, in the one view, the game official reaching for his belt to throw the penalty flag.  Gotta love a teammate that gives up 15 of my hard-earned, emphatic style-laden rushing yards...

This has been discussed at length on the WIAC board.  It should just die as a conversation now...

[Bob.Gregg]

[This has been discussed at length on the WIAC board.  It should just die as a conversation now...

ok, hadn't noticed it previously.  I'm done with it, kirasdad

[Bob.Gregg]

Two-loss teams will not get on the board ahead of one-loss teams.
At least, that's what I hear...

We'll see.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Two-loss teams will not get on the board ahead of one-loss teams.
At least, that's what I hear...

We'll see.

Who did you hear this from?

[wally_wabash]

How do you mean "on the board"?  Do you mean being selected for the field or do you mean that 2-loss teams are not even going to be at the table to be discussed?

[Bob.Gregg]

Who did you hear this from?

Source has been a reliable one for me.  Hasn't given me bad info previously...won't go beyond that.  Of course, as they say, may be a first time...

How do you mean "on the board"?  Do you mean being selected for the field or do you mean that 2-loss teams are not even going to be at the table to be discussed?

My understanding of the statement was in the tournament.

We'll see.

[SaintsFAN]

Who did you hear this from?

Source has been a reliable one for me.  Hasn't given me bad info previously...won't go beyond that.  Of course, as they say, may be a first time...

How do you mean "on the board"?  Do you mean being selected for the field or do you mean that 2-loss teams are not even going to be at the table to be discussed?

My understanding of the statement was in the tournament.

We'll see.

I believe what Bob has to say.. and in that case, that sucks --- I'm really pulling for Ohio Northern. 

[Bob.Gregg]

...I'm really pulling for Ohio Northern.  

I believe that statement to be in conflict with your earlier expressed "hope" that W&J gets in....I don't think they can both get in, just so you know.


By the way, for all you oldtimers, this Pool C stuff may be worse than the old Pool B days....and NO, there are no Pool B teams getting Pool C bids THIS year...

[BlueRebel94]

SaintsFAN has got previous loyalties clashing with current loyalties.