Pool C -- 2009

[smedindy]

It probably won't happen but based on the playoff run that Wheaton College (Illinois) had in 2008, it's hard to keep them out this year.  They were 7-2 last year and got to the final four.  Their two losses this year were to two ranked teams (Illinois Wesleyan and North Central College).  Too bad the committee won't consider three teams from the same conference.  The CCIW is very competitve and the top teams knock each other out.  Even Carthage and Augustana could compete with several teams that are automatic qualifiers.

They would if they'd fit the criteria. The way the NCAA does this it's highly unlikely but it could be done.

[PA_wesleyfan]

I kinda do too.

Looks like on the 11th it's time to fire up that UWW/UMHB series again!

That would be nice K-Mack, but I don't think it will happen.

The new WIAC directive on travel prohibits it, I think.    Unless it's a one game deal to be played at Whitewater.

Money's tight these days, but Wisconsin is closer than Oregon.

I hadn't noticed the first time, but Wesley has an open date as well. Considering they're having even more trouble scheduling, with no conference and nobody wanting to take an L, a UMHB-Wesley series on the 11th might work.

I understand the WIAC travel restriction, but they gotta play somebody. Unless UWW is going to enter the business of guarantees, I think they're going to have a hard time convincing the small private schools with open dates in driving distance to pick up a near-certain loss, the same way they've been having.

I've been wrong before though ...

It gets lonely at the top, or so say the coaches of top teams who are always telling me no one will play them.

K-Mack

I believe that Coach Drass stated in a radio interview that Welsey actually has a full schedule for next year.

[usee]

With the Chair of each region on the national committee deciding who makes the show, how beneficial is it for ONU and IWU that the North Region Co-Chairs are the OAC Commissioner and IWU's Head Coach? And where does Dan Paul, ONU's Head Coach, being on the North Region Board factor into the process?

I am pretty sure that if your team is being discussed you have to recuse yourself from the discussion. (e.g Dean Paul and Norm Eash)

[Ralph Turner]

If Wabsh doesn't win this weekend (and I am not advocating that--I am a closet Wabash fan from years ago) and ONU is the 1st team on the North pool C board it will indeed be interesting vs other teams criteria. In fact, if the committee goes with ONU over a 1 loss team then up pops NCC which has very similar numbers as ONU (except a critical win vs a RRO).

Okay, this is really bad, but after reading the pre-Monon Bell game banter and Wa-"bashing" that is going on over on the Monon Bell message board, I just could not pass up this retort at USee's expense, but here goes...

"Oh just now coming out of the closet..."

Sorry...  


I shared this post with USee last night after a fit of conscience and he had a good laugh.  He said I could share it for the enjoyment of all.

There is something fun about Week #11 with Monon Bell, Cortaca Jug, Bridge Bowl and nearly a dozen Pool A bids and all of Pool C up in the air.

 +1! USee for being a good sport about it.  

[BoBo]

By the way, BoBo, love the video and the way Beaver ran, along with the quote in your signature line:  "UWW's Justin Beaver...with emphasis & in style!!"

Can't help but also notice the lack of style shown by teammate #3 with his after-the-tackle illegal block in the back...Notice, in the one view, the game official reaching for his belt to throw the penalty flag.  Gotta love a teammate that gives up 15 of my hard-earned, emphatic style-laden rushing yards...

This has been discussed at length on the WIAC board.  It should just die as a conversation now...

kirasdad is right, it's been beaten to death!!  But, thanks for the compliment. 
wildcat11 did a great job making it.

[wally_wabash]

What if Wabash loses this weekend? then ONU is on the board for the North from the get go. How does that affect the choices, if at all? (Bob will say not at all--ONU Fans will say they are in earlier?)

The way I went through the selection, I don't think that it will matter all that much.  If ONU is on the board and I selected 1-loss UMHB, then any team that was on the board that got selected before UMHB would have also been selected before ONU.  So ONU would then be in the same spot, but now instead of ONU/Dickinson being the choice for the 6th spot, that would be the choice for the fifth spot...if Dickinson were selected, W&J would come to the table and W&J's SOS is brutal so I think ONU would be the selection.  Either way, as it sits right now and if you take Wabash out of the discussion, ONU looks like the 5th or 6th team taken. 

[Bob.Gregg]

wally, where do you read that a better SOS for an 8-2 team knocks off a 9-1 team?

Results against regional opponents, OWP, OOWP, SOS, wins vs. regionally ranked opponents.

There's nothing in the selection criteria that says SOS trumps results...

[wally_wabash]

These are the primary criteria per the championship handbook:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
   - Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
   - Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.


Those criteria are not listed in any sort of priority order, which I take to mean that all of these things are considered together.  History suggests that an extra in-region loss is very hard to overcome, but there have been cases of 2-loss teams being selected in front of 1-loss teams which must be because of value placed on SOS and results vs. regionally ranked opponents.  I'm not sure one single thing definitively trumps another on this list...it's the sum of the parts that should be considered. 

In the case of ONU, it's not just that they have a stronger SOS (it helps), but I think the bigger thing working for them is that they beat a regionally ranked opponent.  They're the one team that gets on the table that actually has a big time win.  Every other at large team had their chance to beat a good team (or two) and lost (otherwise they'd be in Pool A).  You'll note that Springfield gets to the table in my analysis, and even with their strong SOS, I'm not really considering them in front of 1-loss teams because they didn't win either of their games against RR opponents. 

[Bob.Gregg]

And, since you brought it up, that takes us back to the consideration of Otterbein....

in region head-to-head
in region results vs. regionally ranked opponent.

Just saying...

What was that line listed several times the other day....oh, yeah, it ain't who you lost to, it's who you beat!

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

What was that line listed several times the other day....oh, yeah, it ain't who you lost to, it's who you beat!

We need to amend that to say:

"It ain't who you lost to, unless that happens to be Marietta, it's who you beat!"

[Bob.Gregg]

you folks are kinda funny...

you love to spout the criteria until it doesn't match your prognostication or your rooting interest....

See y'all Sunday afternoon.

[wally_wabash]

You can debate whether or not ONU should be ranked ahead of Otterbein.  But the fact is that they ARE ranked ahead of Otterbein and will be at the table for consideration while Otterbein will not be. 

I'm assuming that you know how the process works...that the top ranked team from each region (and ONLY those four teams) are discussed using the criteria, and one team from those four is selected.  The next team from the region of the team that was just selected then comes to the table and is discussed with the other three.  Rinse, lather, repeat until you get six teams.  If you're not aware that this is how it works, maybe that's where the confusion lies. 

And I didn't do this exercise with any sort of rooting interest in mind...the process kind of fascinates me and I was curious to see what I would come up with if I went through it myself. 

[Bob.Gregg]

wally, I'm fully aware of "how it works" and have been for years.

I'm also fully aware that Regional Rankings, even the last public ones, change when criteria is re-evaluated by the national committee...

Example:  several years ago (2, I think but mind isn't what it used to be), W&J was regionally ranked ahead of CNU (incorrectly based on the criteria) in the last public regional rankings.  W&J won final game impressively, CNU won (can't remember margin).

All the folks on here started spouting about W&J hosting, possibly CNU.  Lo, and behold, when the brackets were revealed, the national committee corrected the regional rankings that had been in error, and put the game AT CNU.

I'm fascinated by the process as well.  I just think it's not all listed criteria (human element is involved at some level)....

[wally_wabash]

So then you think that Otterbein has to be ranked ahead of ONU and NCC and Wheaton? 

I do hope that the NCAA releases the final regional rankings to the public.  They've not done this in the past, so these post week 11 tweaks that you say happen would be known to everybody.  Transparency is a good thing.   

[Bob.Gregg]

So then you think that Otterbein has to be ranked ahead of ONU and NCC and Wheaton? 

I don't think that Otterbein should be or has to be ranked ahead of ONU/NCC/Wheaton.

But I also don't think you can show the criteria why they shouldn't be....
Sorry, losing to Marietta is NOT one of the NCAA recognized criteria...

I think I've shown criteria as to why Otterbein COULD be...