2010 Tournament Brackets/Pod projections

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Why does Messiah not get in?  They have better numbers than Wheaton.  It seems like Wheaton - Messiah - Rutgers Newark are all pretty equal and ahead of other options.

Messiah's secondary criteria are awful. Losses to Penn State-York and Valley Forge Christian.

So when they go to sceondary criteria it is across the board for all eight teams?  It just seems like Messiah should win over Calvin and Anderson on primary criteria.

Calvin and Anderson have much better WP's while Messiah's part in the conversation is their SOS. Its nice they had a tough schedule but that can't always make up for a deficiency in WP. Calvin's SOS is at least north of .500, Anderson's struggles at .4772.

The secondary criteria gives a deeper look and we feel Messiah falls short. To me, they are the casualty of the Mary Hardin-Baylor win. Messiah doesn't get any help from secondary criteria while Calvin adds a win over Carthage.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Maybe I just don't understand when they go to secondary criteria.

Obviously IWU's strong SOS gets them a nod early, deservedly so.  I just get a bit confused as to where the combination of SOS and WP figures into an advantage for one team over another.

It's seems awfully subjective for such accurate predictions.  Although it seems that the first 16 picks, or so, are pretty unanimous.

[magicman]

Pat,
Love your projection showing Plattsburgh State hosting Nazareth, St. John Fisher, ans Colby. I hope you hit that one right on the head. Great show tonight on Hoopsville, with Dave, you and all  the special guests.

[KnightSlappy]

Maybe I just don't understand when they go to secondary criteria.

Obviously IWU's strong SOS gets them a nod early, deservedly so.  I just get a bit confused as to where the combination of SOS and WP figures into an advantage for one team over another.

It's seems awfully subjective for such accurate predictions.  Although it seems that the first 16 picks, or so, are pretty unanimous.

It seems from the regional rankings they won't choose between a team with a (much) higher WP, but lower SOS, and a (much) higher SOS, but lower WP. They like to use the other primary criteria, but across regions head to head and common opponents aren't very likely.

In the case of Calvin vs. Messiah (basically what it came down to for us in the last spot) there just wasn't enough to choose between the two in primary criteria. Calvin had the WP advantage, Messiah with the SOS, so we then went to secondary criteria.

[fritzdis]

It seems from the regional rankings they won't choose between a team with a (much) higher WP, but lower SOS, and a (much) higher SOS, but lower WP. They like to use the other primary criteria, but across regions head to head and common opponents aren't very likely.

In the case of Calvin vs. Messiah (basically what it came down to for us in the last spot) there just wasn't enough to choose between the two in primary criteria. Calvin had the WP advantage, Messiah with the SOS, so we then went to secondary criteria.

What about Wheaton vs. Messiah though, where Messiah has both the WP and SOS advantage?  Would secondary criteria even be a factor in that comparison?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It seems from the regional rankings they won't choose between a team with a (much) higher WP, but lower SOS, and a (much) higher SOS, but lower WP. They like to use the other primary criteria, but across regions head to head and common opponents aren't very likely.

In the case of Calvin vs. Messiah (basically what it came down to for us in the last spot) there just wasn't enough to choose between the two in primary criteria. Calvin had the WP advantage, Messiah with the SOS, so we then went to secondary criteria.

What about Wheaton vs. Messiah though, where Messiah has both the WP and SOS advantage?  Would secondary criteria even be a factor in that comparison?

They have an advantage in both, but it's quite slight in both.  It seems like something deserving of going to secondary (I'd include Rutgers-Newark in that as a three way comparison).

That is my major argument - I'd include those three as the last three, leaving Calvin and Anderson on the board.

We'll find out tomorrow.

[Greek Tragedy]

Looking at your projections, surprised to see both Point and Whitewater hosting over Carthage.  Thought Carthage would host before BOTH Point and Whitewater host.  Carthage won both regular season and tourney titles.  Are you saying the WIAC is that much better than the CCIW this year? 

[nwhoops1903]

Looking at your projections, surprised to see both Point and Whitewater hosting over Carthage.  Thought Carthage would host before BOTH Point and Whitewater host.  Carthage won both regular season and tourney titles.  Are you saying the WIAC is that much better than the CCIW this year? 

If you are referring to my projections, in my Sunday redo, I now have Carthage hosting their pod with Whitewater a traveling member.

[Gregory Sager]

Looking at your projections, surprised to see both Point and Whitewater hosting over Carthage.  Thought Carthage would host before BOTH Point and Whitewater host.  Carthage won both regular season and tourney titles.  Are you saying the WIAC is that much better than the CCIW this year? 

No, I think it's more a matter of UWW beating Carthage earlier this season, plus UWSP has win-loss percentage and SOS advantages over the Red Men, and the 5-2 (UWSP) and 4-1 (Carthage) records against common opponents isn't enough of an advantage in Carthage's favor.

Regular-season and tourney titles aren't among the NCAA's criteria.

[fritzdis]

It seems from the regional rankings they won't choose between a team with a (much) higher WP, but lower SOS, and a (much) higher SOS, but lower WP. They like to use the other primary criteria, but across regions head to head and common opponents aren't very likely.

In the case of Calvin vs. Messiah (basically what it came down to for us in the last spot) there just wasn't enough to choose between the two in primary criteria. Calvin had the WP advantage, Messiah with the SOS, so we then went to secondary criteria.

What about Wheaton vs. Messiah though, where Messiah has both the WP and SOS advantage?  Would secondary criteria even be a factor in that comparison?

They have an advantage in both, but it's quite slight in both.  It seems like something deserving of going to secondary (I'd include Rutgers-Newark in that as a three way comparison).

That is my major argument - I'd include those three as the last three, leaving Calvin and Anderson on the board.

We'll find out tomorrow.

I'll concede that the numbers may not put Messiah ahead of Wheaton so clearly that secondary criteria aren't considered, but if Rutgers-Newark isn't in ahead of Wheaton on primary criteria alone, then I don't see the point of designating them as primary criteria.  They have a significantly better WP, close SOS, and far better in-region record vs. ranked teams.

[Pat Coleman]

Bracket: http://www.d3boards.com/playoffs/mbb-bracket2010.pdf

[John Gleich]

Does anybody see any glaring inequities in this bracket?  I can't...

Shipping Whitworth and Whitewater to the opposite side of the bracket separates some of the highest ranked teams in the West from the other ones and from the Midwest.  I'm not sure how, numbers-wise, they matched up...

But this seems at least to me to be the most balanced bracket we've gotten in a very, very long time.

... But people not in the West may think differently!

[sac]

Does anybody see any glaring inequities in this bracket?  I can't...

Shipping Whitworth and Whitewater to the opposite side of the bracket separates some of the highest ranked teams in the West from the other ones and from the Midwest.  I'm not sure how, numbers-wise, they matched up...

But this seems at least to me to be the most balanced bracket we've gotten in a very, very long time.

... But people not in the West may think differently!

It might just feel more balanced because who the top teams are might not be so obvious this year.

It is clear they made an effort to move some Midwest/West teams away from their natural bracket..........that should be applauded at least.

ie  Wheaton to Texas, Whitewater to Ohio

[T990]

Can anyone point me to where they have the game times for the first 2 rounds?

Also, other than the "bye" brackets, are all the games on Friday and Saturday, not Thursday?

[Pat Coleman]

I agree there -- when I was looking at bracketing for myself and wondering how I could keep certain teams from meeting each other I had a bit of a eureka moment to remind myself that those teams aren't necessarily world-beaters this year.

Game times are 6 and 8 p.m. local time. In the past the host teams have been required to play at 8 but some got to play the early game last year. That's a loophole they were talking about closing but I can't say for sure.

The Thursday first-round games are 7 local time, Saturday second-round games also at 7.