2010 Tournament Brackets/Pod projections

Started by nwhoops1903, February 27, 2010, 03:55:23 PM

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Which team will advance from the lower left bracket?

Guilford
Whitworth
Eastern Mennonite
Wooster

Mr. Ypsi

Since the means are skewed by the 3-digit teams, the medians are:

upper right = 23

lower left = 31

John Gleich

Quote from: PointSpecial on March 01, 2010, 04:05:11 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2010, 02:33:41 PM
Quote from: deanslist on March 01, 2010, 02:22:32 PM
I was wondering what people thought on which bracket/region would be the most difficult? And which is the easiest?

The only bracket that stands out against the rest is the WashU, IWU, Carthage, St. Thomas half - those are tough second round games.  I think Williams and VA Wesleyan have slightly easier paths to the final eight than most.

It's about as balanced a bracket as I've seen.

If you go by top 25 teams, the upper right has 8, lower right has 7, upper left has 3, and lower left has 6 7.

3 top 10 teams in the upper right, 1 in the lower right, 2 in the upper left and 4 in the lower left.

Correction for bottom left.

Why don't I just list them all... it would be much easier!

Upper Left (3):

2. Williams
6. Middlebury
22. St. John Fisher

Lower Left (7):

4. Guilford
5. Whitworth
7. Eastern Mennonite
8. UW Whitewater
12. Chapman
19. Wooster
24. John Carroll

Upper Right (8):

1. Wash U
3. St. Thomas
9. UW Stevens Point
15. UT- Dallas
16. Carthage
17. St. Norbert
23. Anderson
25. Central

Lower Right (7):

10. Willy Pat
11. Va Wes
13. MIT
14. St. Mary's
18. Randy Mac
20. F&M
21. Cabrini
UWSP Men's Basketball

National Champions: 2015, 2010, 2005, 2004

NCAA appearances: 2018, '15, '14, '13, '12, '11, '10, '09, '08, '07, '05, '04, '03, '00, 1997

WIAC/WSUC Champs: 2015, '14, '13, '11, '09, '07, '05, '03, '02, '01, '00, 1993, '92, '87, '86, '85, '84, '83, '82, '69, '61, '57, '48, '42, '37, '36, '35, '33, '18

Twitter: @JohnGleich

Mr. Ypsi

And none of them resembles the Bracket of Death - thank God (and/or the NCAA)!

A large part of that is that the power is simply much more dispersed geographically this year than last.  But (as Pat showed last year) they could have easily relieved the B of D last year and didn't; this year they removed UWW and Whitworth from what still wouldn't have been as bad, but would have been clearly the toughest bracket.

Gregory Sager

#78
THE HISTORY OF THE 2010 FIELD

schoolyrs in tmt (first app)Elite 8sFinal 4s  1-2-3-4  W-L (.pct)
Brandeis    7 (1975)  3  --  --    9-6  (.600)
Rhode Island C.    7 (1975)  2  --  --    6-8  (.429)
St. Lawrence  12 (1975)  1  --  --  10-13 (.435)
Franklin & Marshall  21 (1975)  8  5  0-1-1-3  36-25 (.590)
William Paterson  14 (1975)  5  2  0-1-0-1  22-14 (.611)
Plattsburgh State    6 (1976)  1  1  0-0-0-1    5-6  (.455)
Grove City    5 (1976)  --  ---  --    3-5  (.375)
Oneonta State    2 (1977)  1  1  0-1-0-0    4-1  (.800)
Central    9 (1977)  --  --  --    5-9  (.357)
Albright    4 (1977)  1  --  --    4-3  (.571)
Clark  16 (1978)  8  2  0-2-0-0  26-15 (.634)
Virginia Wesleyan  10 (1978)  2  2  1-1-0-0  13-10 (.565)
Wooster  19 (1978)  3  2  0-0-1-1  18-19 (.486)
Centre  13 (1979)  3  2  0-0-0-2  12-18 (.400)
Brooklyn    3 (1982)  1  1  0-0-1-0    4-2  (.667)
Hope  21 (1982)  4  3  0-2-1-0  25-21 (.543)
Bridgewater State    5 (1983)  --  --  --    3-4  (.429)
Wisconsin-Whitewater  16 (1983)  3  3  2-0-0-1  23-14 (.622)
John Carroll  12 (1983)  3  1  0-0-1-0  20-13 (.606)
Nazareth    7 (1984)  1  --  --    5-6  (.455)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps  10 (1984)  --  --  --    3-10 (.231)
St. Norbert    3 (1984)  --  --  --    1-2  (.333)
Illinois Wesleyan  19 (1984)  9  4  1-0-3-0  39-18 (.684)
Lycoming    5 (1985)  --  --  --    4-4  (.500)
Christopher Newport  17 (1986)  1  --  --  10-17 (.370)
Richard Stockton  13 (1987)  4  2  0-1-0-1  21-14 (.600)
Washington MO  15 (1987)  5  3  2-0-1-0  26-12 (.684)
Cabrini    8 (1988)  --  --  --    4-8  (.333)
Merchant Marine    8 (1989)  --  --  --    4-7  (.364)
Randolph-Macon  10 (1990)  --  --  --    5-9  (.357)
St. Thomas  11 (1990)  2  1  0-0-0-1  12-11 (.522)
Maryville  17 (1991)  1  --  --  13-16 (.448)
St. John Fisher  14 (1992)  1  --  --    8-13 (.381)
Defiance    4 (1993)  --  --  --    0-3  (.000)
Williams  11 (1994)  4  4  1-1-2-0  25-9  (.735)
Westminster MO    2 (1995)  --  --  --    0-1  (.000)
Wheaton IL    7 (1995)  1  --  --    7-6 (.538)
DeSales    3 (1996)  1  --  --    3-2 (.600)
Wisconsin-Stevens Point    9 (1997)  4  2  2-0-0-0  19-6 (.760)
Aurora    8 (1998)  --  --  --    1-7  (.125)
Carthage    4 (2000)  2  1  0-0-1-0    7-3 (.700)
Whitworth    5 (2003)  --  --  --    3-4  (.429)
Texas-Dallas    3 (2005)  1  --  --    2-2  (.500)
Gordon    2 (2006)  --  --  --    0-1  (.000)
Carleton    2 (2006)  --  --  --    0-1  (.000)
Guilford    4 (2007)  1  1  0-0-1-0    7-3  (.700)
Mary Hardin-Baylor    3 (2007)  --  --  --    1-2  (.333)
St. Mary's MD    2 (2008)  --  --  --    2-1  (.667)
Middlebury    3 (2008)  --  --  --    0-2  (.000)
Wesley    2 (2009)  --  --  --    0-1  (.000)
Medaille    2 (2009)  --  --  --    0-1  (.000)
MIT    2 (2009)  --  --  --    1-1  (.500)
SUNYIT    2 (2009)  --  --  --    1-1  (.500)
Maine-Farmington    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Rutgers-Newark    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Eastern Mennonite    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Wilmington    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Chapman    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Anderson    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Purchase    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --
Albertus Magnus    1 (2010)  --  --  --    --



"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

nwhoops1903

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 01, 2010, 05:21:54 PM
And none of them resembles the Bracket of Death - thank God (and/or the NCAA)!

A large part of that is that the power is simply much more dispersed geographically this year than last.  But (as Pat showed last year) they could have easily relieved the B of D last year and didn't; this year they removed UWW and Whitworth from what still wouldn't have been as bad, but would have been clearly the toughest bracket.
Upper left is definitely the lightest of the four brackets and Williams can say a ton by making it through.  Upper right and lower left can argue for top difficulty.  Lower right is 3rd but still strong.

I am very impressed with the field and the structure of the brackets.  An apparent concern to have the top 8 or 10 teams dispersed and have a final 4 that would be compelling and HIGHLY competitive is a welcome relief from last years anticlimatic Salem. 
NWC fan

altor

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 01, 2010, 05:16:10 PM
Since the means are skewed by the 3-digit teams, the medians are:

upper right = 23

lower left = 31

The statistician in me says that you should figure averages (mean and/or median) of the actual rating, not the ranking.  Could also figure the standard deviation to get a good idea of how each fares top to bottom.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: altor on March 01, 2010, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 01, 2010, 05:16:10 PM
Since the means are skewed by the 3-digit teams, the medians are:

upper right = 23

lower left = 31

The statistician in me says that you should figure averages (mean and/or median) of the actual rating, not the ranking.  Could also figure the standard deviation to get a good idea of how each fares top to bottom.

Makes sense, but there is a reason I'm a retired statistician! :D

The key point, IMO, is there are variations among the regions, but there is NO Bracket of Death! ;D  IMO, top right is slightly the toughest; top left is fairly clearly the weakest.  Compared to last year, it's nirvana! ;)

usee

Greg- nice history and table format. Now if you just add their endowment numbers we'll be set.


Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: USee on March 01, 2010, 10:28:12 PM
Greg- nice history and table format. Now if you just add their endowment numbers we'll be set.

And you just KNOW he could! ;)

(Might not even need to look 'em up! :D)

Gregory Sager

Quote from: USee on March 01, 2010, 10:28:12 PM
Greg- nice history and table format. Now if you just add their endowment numbers we'll be set.

Sure thing. Just call me Sisyphus.

(Boulder? What boulder?)
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

sac

8 newbies in the tournament, thats got to be the highest in quite a few years.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: sac on March 02, 2010, 12:03:30 AM
8 newbies in the tournament, thats got to be the highest in quite a few years.

And one of them is a serious threat to win it.  With their total demolitions of some excellent teams (including two ranked #1 at the time), EMU has shown that, IF on their game, they can beat anyone.

magicman

Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 01, 2010, 10:41:57 PM
Quote from: USee on March 01, 2010, 10:28:12 PM
Greg- nice history and table format. Now if you just add their endowment numbers we'll be set.

Sure thing. Just call me Sisyphus.

(Boulder? What boulder?)

Hill? What Hill?
Plus k on the History of the 2010 field

magicman

#88
Massey Ratings for the upper left bracket:

#6      Williams
#30    Middlebury
#36     Brandeis
#37     St. John Fisher
#57     Rutgers-Newark
#72     Nazareth
#74     Plattsburgh State
#86     Brooklyn
#98     Rhode Island College
#112   Gordon
#120   Medaille
#138   SUNYIT
#143   Bridgewater State
#188   St. Lawrence
#273   Maine-Farmington

Average rank for this bracket: 98

I guess according to Massey this would be the easiest bracket as Titan Q has already mentioned. Even though no one has done the remaining bracket yet, it appears the average won't be as high as this one.

kiltedbryan

Quote from: sac on March 02, 2010, 12:03:30 AM
8 newbies in the tournament, thats got to be the highest in quite a few years.

Plus 7 additional teams that have never won an NCAA game.