NESCAC 2010

[machine54]

re: Midd/Amherst - by far the most amazing comeback I have seen in 27 years of watching my daughters play soccer - Midd loses one of their top players to injury in the first minute of play, Midd had numerous chances to score but was unable to convert and found themselves down 3-0 with less than 10 to play when the comeback started.

the freshman who scored the hat trick played every minute of that game - she's a beast - all three freshman field players for Midd are excellent.   

big assist to Amherst coach (and she is an excellent coach) - she pulled her starters and starting goalie with about 15 minutes to go thinking of course that the game was over - (as we all did)  then the comeback started with about 9 to play - after the second Midd goal and all the momentum had shifted she put her starting goalie back in and a lot of her front line players but by then it was too late and Midd scored the equalizer on a rocket from 30 yards out - Amherst had no chance in OT.   She and her assistant coach did not move off the bench for at least 45 minutes after the game.   

[Becks]

I wasn't at the game, but heard the same thing -- that loss was a result of a big momentum swing when Amherst coach put all the subs in.

[Giggs]

Machine - thanks for the info on the game and what happened -- must have been amazing to witness!

[2xfaux]

The next time we all sigh and scratch our heads at a 7-0 or 9-0 score, we need to remember this one.  It really must have been something to see!!

[Becks]

Williams 2-1 Trinity (OT) -- Interesting stats.  Looks like Williams totally dominated the first half, but did not score.  Took 8 shots, 4 on goal, while holding Trinity without a shot.  Second half looks like it was totally different and very even.  Williams scores early in the half and Trinity scores to tie in the last minute of regulation, but Williams gets winner 3 minutes into OT.  Strangest stat may have been that Leigh Howard started but did not take a single shot all game.  Just good team defense? Man-marked? Injured?

[Becks]

Eastern Connecticut beat Amherst 2-1 at Amherst last night.  NESCAC parity this year means no real outstanding teams.  I wouldn't be surprised if the only NESCAC team to get an NCAA bid is the NESCAC tournament winner.

[Jim Matson]

I'm not sure about that.  The second place NESCAC team always ends up with a fairly competitive strength of schedule stat.  Next week's NCAA regional rankings will shed some light on my theory.

[ECSUalum]

Eastern Connecticut beat Amherst 2-1 at Amherst last night.  NESCAC parity this year means no real outstanding teams.  I wouldn't be surprised if the only NESCAC team to get an NCAA bid is the NESCAC tournament winner.

Note: ECSU women's soccer are undefeated so far this year, with a very young starting 11.  They will be causing problems for a lot of teams this year and through 2012 season.

[nescac1]

I'd be stunned if Williams doesn't make it in even if they don't win the NESCAC tourney (and don't sleep on the Ephs, the bounces haven't gone their way this year but they are still a very deep and talented team with a lot of post season experience), so long as they get at least one more win and one additional non-loss in their next three (or likely more) games.  They must have played, easily, the toughest schedule in D-III this  year, eight out of twelve games so far on the road, with very good wins over regionally ranked teams Springfield, Keene State, Oneonta State, and Trinity.  Two of their three losses have been to very solid teams in Amherst and William Smith (the latter a top-ten caliber team), and then they've had one flukey loss to Bates in a game they dominated. 

[Becks]

A lot of talk about parity this year, and so far the stats support that conclusion.  Set forth below is a measure of league parity based on league best and worst goal differential:

2009
Best +26
Worst -31
Spread 57

2008
Best +25
Worst -15
Spread 40

2007
Best +24
Worst -19
Spread 43

2006
Best +23
Worst -17
Spread 40

2005
Best +14
Worst -19
Spread 33

2004
Best +13
Worst -22
Spread 35

2003
Best +14
Worst -29
Spread 43

2002
Best +14
Worst -23
Spread 37

2001
Best +17
Worst -20
Spread 37

2000
Best +17
Worst -26
Spread 43

So far this year:
Best +8
Worst -9
Spread 17

Projected based on current per game rates:
Best +10
Worst -12
Spread 22

So, based on results to date, the 2010 league season has in fact shown substantially more parity than any prior NESCAC season and is on track to set a record for parity.  Perhaps the biggest surprise is that (i) this comes on the heals of a 2009 league season which showed the least amount of parity among the teams, as records were set for both best and worst goal differentials, and (ii) the team setting the record for best goal differential was losing relatively few starters from last year, while the team setting the record for the worst goal differential was losing a very large number of starters from last year.  I think what this really demonstrates is "regression toward the mean" -- ie a really outstanding result one time-- either good or bad -- is most likely going to be followed by a less outstanding result the next time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean However, while it was always likely that there would be significantly more parity this year than last year, it is still surprising to set a record for most parity the year after setting a record for least parity.

[machine54]

4 goals againt Amherst, 4 goals against Keene St. - Midd poised to take NESCAC lead with two winnable games against a much improved Conn squad (at least defensively) and a tough Wesleyan team - but comes away with two somewhat disappointing 0-0 ties on the road -  bad timing as their best sniper is out with an injury -  interesting matchups as we head down the stretch - 

[Becks]

Just came back from the Midd-Wes game.  Overall a fairly even contest with both sides having a few good chances to score.  I thought Wes created more opportunities in the first half.  Midd started to control more of the play as the second half wore on and in the first OT period, as Wes resorted more and more to hopeful long balls to its forwards.  Best Wes opportunities were scrambles in the box, including one where Midd keeper did well for deflect a ball up onto the crossbar.  Midd's best opportunity probably came in first OT, as a Midd player turned in the box and had a clear left footed shot from the six but shanked it wide.

With the tie, Wes now has 4 ties in league play, which ties the NESCAC all-time league record for ties in a season.  Wes is also certain to set its team record for fewest losses in a NESCAC season.  The most they could lose now is 3, while their prior fewest number of losses was (shockingly) 5.  Wes's tie with Midd is only the 2d time since 1995 that they have not lost to Middlebury (they also tied in 2005).

[Becks]

The number of ties this season has blown away the old NESCAC record for most ties in a season.  Rather ironic since the main argument (albeit largely unsupported by evidence) for adopting a 3-1-0 pt system is to reduce the number of ties.

Ties per season:
2010 - 10 (to date, with 11 matches to go)
2009 - 3
2008 - 4
2007 - 4
2006 - 6
2005 - 6
2004 - 7
2003 - 3
2002 - 6
2001 - 3
2000 - 2

[Becks]

With Tufts beating Conn 2-1 at Conn today, Middlebury, Trinity and Wesleyan join Tufts, Amherst and Williams as teams that have clinched spots in the NESCAC tournament.  Bates and Bowdoin are in the drivers seats for the final 2 spots, but Colby or Conn (but not both, since they play each other) could technically catch one of them.  If Colby or Conn win their last 2 games, they definitely have a shot at getting a playoff spot.  Bates plays at Middlebury and at Colby for its last 2 games, while Bowdoin plays Trinity at home and then Tufts away.  Colby's chances look a bit better, as they play Conn and Bates at home, while Conn plays Colby and Wes on the road.

Amherst, Tufts and Williams look likely for 3 of the 4 home field spots.  The 4th spot is between Trinity, Middlebury and Wes.  All currently have the same winning percentage, but Wes is a point back due to the pointless adoption of 3-1-0 scoring this year.  (At least the 2d tie breaker (after head-to-head) is winning percentage.)  Trinity has the advantage of owning the first tie breaker over Middlebury and Wes, as Trinity beat both.

[Becks]

The first NCAA regional rankings (not to be confused with the NSCAA rankings) are out:

New England Region:

1. Eastern Connecticut State
2. Williams
3. Brandeis
4. Wheaton (Massachusetts)
5. Tufts
6. Middlebury
7. Roger Williams
8. Springfield
9. Keene State
10. Amherst
11. Western Connecticut State
12. Trinity (Connecticut)

The rankings are used to pick the Pool C bids for the NCAA tournament (after all the automatic bids are handed out). Looks like Williams is currently in pretty good shape to get a bid even if they don't win the tournament, but I'm not sure about anybody else.  Not sure how far down they go in handing out Pool C bids, and a lot depends on which teams win their tournaments and how teams do in their last couple of games.