NESCAC 2010

[Becks]

Wesleyan

2009 League Results: 4-5-0 (6); GF: 9 (7), GA: 12 (6), GD: -3 (7)
2008 League Results: 3-5-1 (7); GF: 7 (7), GA: 15 (7), GD: -8 (7)
2007 League Results: 2-6-1 (7); GF: 8 (7), GA: 11 (5), GD: -3 (7)
2006 League Results: 3-6-0 (8); GF: 9 (9), GA: 16 (6), GD: -7 (8)
2005 League Results: 2-6-2 (8); GF: 7 (10), GA: 21 (8), GD: -14 (9)

Wesleyan's league record has gradually improved over the last 5 years, although last year's GD was identical to that of the hard-luck team of 2007 which lost each of its 6 league losses by 1 goal.

The prediction for 2009 had been for a slight drop off in performance, as the team was losing 3 starters, 43% of league scoring and 24% of overall scoring.  Instead GF went up slightly, GA went down slightly and the team finished with its best league record and highest placement in NESCAC's 10 year history (which just shows how bad Wesleyan was for much of the last decade).  Much of the improvement can be attributed to a strong frosh class that contributed 4 starters, 54 combined starts (more than any other class) and 57% of team goals.  And that was with NESCAC rookie of the year, Laura Kurash missing half the season with an injury.

This year, Wesleyan will be losing 4 players to graduation, including 3 starters: midfielders Taylor Stevenson (NESCAC 2d team) and Beth Kenworthy and defender Alisha Neptune.  The good news for Wes is that the departing players only contributed 11% of team scoring.  The bad news is that Wes has to replace both starting center-mids.  Overall, based on number and quality of the players Wes is losing, the team show be roughly the same strength as in 2009.

Summary:  Wes should be about the same strength as last year, since they are losing an average number of players.  The fact that they won't be losing much scoring is offset by the need to replace both center mids.

[Becks]

Williams

2009 League Results: 9-0-0 (1); GF: 28 (1), GA: 2 (1), GD: +26 (1)
2008 League Results: 8-0-1 (1); GF: 19 (2), GA: 4 (1), GD: +15 (2)
2007 League Results: 9-0-0 (1); GF: 26 (1), GA: 2 (1), GD: +24 (1)
2006 League Results: 4-2-2 (4); GF: 16 (4), GA: 8 (3), GD: +8 (3)
2005 League Results: 5-3-1 (4); GF: 11 (6), GA: 8 (2), GD: +3 (6)

Williams went from a relatively middle of the pack team in the 2005 and 2006 seasons to having 3 of the best seasons ever in the last 3 seasons.

The prediction for 2009 had been for a strong season and #1 finish, as the team was losing only a moderate portion of their talent and had plenty coming back. In fact, Williams put together the best NESCAC season ever, breaking the GA and GD records that they set in their 2007 season.  Not a lot of it due to the frosh, however, as they contributed 0 starters, 8 starts, and 14% of scoring.

This year, Williams will be losing 4 players to graduation, including 2 starters (midfielders Brianna Wolfson (NESCAC POY) and Lauren Sinnenberg (NESCAC 2d team), as well as super sub Sarah Walmsley (NESCAC 2d team).  Williams returns plenty of talent, however, including 80% of their scoring.  Overall, based on number and quality of the players Williams is returning, the team should be as good this year as last.

Summary:  Williams should be just as strong this year as last, since they are losing only 2 starters and 20% of scoring.

[Becks]

2010 Preseason Power Rankings:

Putting all the preseason team analysis together, I'm going to guestimate how 2010 team GD's will change over last year, based largely on how many starters they are losing and how much of their offense.

Bates +4 (1, 0%)
Bowdoin +4 (2, 15%, + getting Silva back)
Amherst + 2 (2, 16%)
Trinity + 2 (2, 16%)
Williams +2 (2, 20%)
Wesleyan 0 (3, 11%)
Colby -2 (4, 10%)
Conn -4 (6, 29%)
Middlebury -4 (6, 33%)
Tufts -4 (5, 64%)

Now, adding those numbers to last year's GD, I get my preseason power rankings.  Note that this is not a prediction of final league standings because it does not take into account game schedules (eg, home field advantage/disadvantage in close games).

1.  Williams +26 + 2 = +28
2.  Amherst +14 + 2 = +16
3.  Middlebury +9 - 4 = +5
4.  Trinity +2 + 2 = +4
5.  Bowdoin -1 + 4 = +3
6.  Tufts +6 -4 = +2
7.  Wesleyan -3 + 0 = -3
8.  Bates -11 + 4 = -7
9.  Colby -11 - 2 = -13
10.  Conn -31 - 4 = -35

The rankings suggest that Williams will remain clearly the stongest team in the division with Amherst clearly #2.  There is then a big drop down to #3 (suggesting maybe only 2 NCAA picks this year).  #3-6 (Middlebury, Trinity, Bowdoin, Tufts) are all very close -- any game between them would be a toss-up, with home field advantage being important.

[Becks]

Now for a total leap into fantasy, based on the power rankings (more precisely, predicted per game GDs) and figuring in home field advantage (home v away is worth about a 1 goal swing), here are the predicted 2010 league final league standings and records.

1. Williams 9-0-0
@ Wes - W
@ Conn - W
v. Colby - W
v. Amherst - W
@ Bates - W
@ Trinity - W
v. Bowdoin - W
@ Tufts - W
v. Middlebury - W

2. Amherst 8-1-0
@ Bowdoin - W
@ Bates - W
v. Tufts - W
v. Conn - W
@ Williams - L
@ Middlebury - W (close)
v. Colby - W
@ Welseyan - W
v. Trinity - W

3. Middlebury 5-2-2
@ Tufts - T
v. Trinity - W (close)
v. Bowdoin - W (close)
@ Colby - W
v. Amherst - L (close)
@ Conn - W
@ Wesleyan - T
v. Bates - W
@ Williams - L

4 (Tie). Bowdoin 4-3-2
v. Amherst - L
@ Bates - W (close)
@ Colby - W
@ Middlebury - L (close)
v. Conn - W
v. Wesleyan - W
@ Williams - L
v. Trinity - T
v. Tufts - T

4 (Tie). Trinity 4-3-2
v. Colby - W
@ Middlebury - L (close)
v. Bates - W
@ Wesleyan - T
@ Conn - W
v. Williams - L
v. Tufts - W (close)
@ Bowdoin - T
@ Amherst - L

4 (Tie). Tufts 4-3-2
v. Middlebury - T
@ Amherst - L
v. Wesleyan - W
v. Bates - W
@ Colby - W
@ Trinity - L (close)
@ Conn - W
v. Williams - L
v. Bowdoin - T

7. Wesleyan 2-4-3
v. Williams - L
@ Colby - W (close)
@ Tufts - L
v. Trinity - T
@ Bowdoin - L
@ Bates - T
v. Middlebury - T
v. Amherst - L
v. Conn - W

8. Bates 1-6-2
@ Conn - W
v. Amherst - L
v. Bowdoin - L (close)
@ Trinity - L
@ Tufts - L
v. Williams - L
v. Wesleyan - T
@ Middlebury - L
@ Colby - T

9. Colby 1-7-1
@ Trinity - L
v. Wesleyan - L (close)
v. Bowdoin - L
@ Williams - L
v. Middlebury - L
v. Tufts - L
@ Amherst - L
v. Conn - W
v. Bates - T

10. Conn 0-9-0
v. Bates - L
v. Williams - L
@ Amherst - L
@ Bowdoin - L
v. Trinity - L
v. Middlebury - L
v. Tufts - L
@ Colby - L
@ Wesleyan - L

Of course lots of this will not happen:  incoming frosh, injuries, team chemistry, player improvements/fall-offs, lucky/bad bounces, bad calls, weather, etc. will all make a huge difference.

[Becks]

Wesleyan coach preseason interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYAM9hFAHDE

Couldn't find any on youtube for the other schools.

[machine54]

Riddle me this - Midd lost 8 seniors to graduation - or did they - currently the roster has 6 rising juniors but the Midd opening day 2010 roster will have 8 seniors - those additions combined with the return of two potential 2010 starters who were lost for the season after eight games last season (including perhaps their top freshman)   could make for an interesting season - however Midd must get through a brutal first week of the season - 5 games in 8 days including Tufts, Trinity and two 2009 NCAA teams in Wheaton and Skidmore - key will be how quickly the new back line comes together- having the best goalie in the league will certainly help (although the Colby goalie is quite good ) 

[Becks]

Re Midd 2010 having 8 seniors -- Are the 2 "additions" transfers (would be kind of odd to transfer in for just senior year), juniors from last year who did not play varsity (perhaps G C-Z but who else?), 5th year seniors?

Re Midd having best keeper -- Midd keeper was last year's NESCAC 1st team keeper.  But based on last year's league stats, I'd have to rank at least William's Julia Schreiber (best goals against average and best save percentage), Trinity's Lily Pepper (3d best goals against average and 2d best saves percentage) and Amherst's Allie Horwitz (2d best goals against average and 3d best saves percentage) ahead of the Midd keeper among returning keepers.  The Midd keeper tied for most shutouts, but only ranked 6th in goals against average and her save percentage was not even in the top 10.  She faced one of the fewest (or fewest) number of  shots on goal (based on saves per game), suggesting that her shutouts and good goals against average were largely due to having a good D that prevented shots on goal.  (Of course it's possible that the Midd home stats keeper was just more conservative on calling something a shot on goal, which would skew the saves per game and saves percentage stats against the Midd keeper. That's one problem with stats -- only as good as the data. )

[Dfense1]

Hey Becks -- great posts...very informative.

Looking at the home/away schedule for all teams...it would seem the Ephs have the most onerous early schedule challenge as well as the toughest non-conference opponents during that period.

Viewpoint: i) Their first 6 games are on the road; and ii) In that period they play 3 historically difficult non-conference teams...WestConn, William Smith-2009 NCAA 2nd Round with 10/11 starters returning and Oneonta State-2009 NCAA 2nd Round with 9/11 starters returning.

I've not found a team in the NESCAC women's soccer history books that are starting a season in this manner.  What a way to challenge and prepare a team for the post-season! We'll learn alot about them fairly early on.

[Becks]

I'll be interested to see how WesConn is this year.  In year's past, they have been a good team and highly ranked but seem to have slipped a bit in the past couple of years.

[Dfense1]

Agree WestConn should be an interesting team...after appearing in the NCAA tournament in 2005 and 2006, they went to the Final Four in 2007 then followed-up with a 2nd round appearance in 2008.

They suffered a bit to graduation last year as they had 11 Frosh on the 2009 team that finished 10-10-1...clearly an off year for them and apparently a rebuilding one.

[amh63]

The Amherst season preview is now posted on the college website.  There are nine new players coming in that has captured the notice of national recruiting Div 3 rating groups.  It is preseason and a time to be hopeful.

[Becks]

"national recruiting Div 3 rating groups"

Are there such things? Could you share a link or group name? I've only seen recruiting ratings for D1 (eg those done by the belated soccerbuzz website).

[reccos]

By "national recruiting Div 3 rating groups", I think he means "parents".   

[amh63]

To clarify my previous post.  For women's div3 soccer  there is not clearcut recruiting rating service on line that I can find. My posting wrt soccer was in error by an poster that is getting senile...me.  Background:  In my reading of all the Fall Amherst teams' previews that appeared on 8/31/10, I confused the rating service for tennis with soccer.   During my reading of the women's tennis team, there was a pointer to a rating of recruiting class by schools for Div3.  I went to the pointed site and my computer crashed before I could read it fully.  When I went to the Amherst website again there was no reference to the recruiting site in all the write-ups.  I tried to find it on my own and could not.  I went to the Amherst SID and asked for help.  He pointed out that there was a reference to the first year players by a tennis rating site.  He had to remove the site in the write-up by request from the coach.  

[nescac1]

This rule change should favor offensive teams, and I imagine will make teams more aggressive in general / less content to play for a tie:

http://www.nescac.com/sports/wsoc/2010-11/news/Standings_090210