D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[desertcat1]

Wasn't me...I have Franklin ahead of Thomas More.

Again great mines think alike.  ( big hole )   

I too had Franklin ahead of tom More.

[USee]

It's not Franklin's conference, but the fact they squeaked past Bluffton (which at the time looked sketchy, but now looks pretty good and I've adjusted my ranking on Franklin to account for that) and giving up 27 to Manchester (albeit 14 in garbage time) that may be driving some rankings.

Meanwhile TMC didn't just beat W&J, they crushed 'em and then handed a good Westminster squad their only loss. Yes, Carnegie Mellon was close, but C-M is a good team that had a front loaded schedule (TMC, W&J and a good Wash U squad)

So putting all that data in the blender, and I can see TMC over Franklin in some people's minds. It's a long way from week 1.

That may be true but it's really not a long way from week 5, where this poll had Franklin above TMC. The only thing that happened that week was Franklin beat winless Earlham 40-7 and TMC beat winless Grove City 70-20. Someone changed their ranking of these teams after week 5 based on something that has yet to be mentioned here it would appear.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Going with a larger font size on the poll this week. I think it looks better than it did.


                2016 WEEK 7 TOP 25 FAN POLL

  #       School                Pts   Prev 
  1)   Mary Hardin-Baylor (6)   222     1
  2)   UW-Whitewater (1)        212     2
  3)   Mount Union (2)          210     3
  4)   St Thomas                195     4
  5)   UW-Oshkosh               190     5
  6)   North Central            172     7
  7)   UW-Platteville           170     6
  8)   Linfield                 164     8
  9)   St John's                157     9
10)   Hardin-Simmons           143    12
11)   Johns Hopkins            140   T10
12)   Thomas More              113    15
13)   Wheaton                  109   T10
14)   Franklin                 106    17
15)   Stevenson                 77    21
16)   St Lawrence               73    20
17)   Wabash                    60    18
18)   Coe                       59    25
19)   Alfred                    58    23
20)   E Texas Baptist           39    16
21)   John Carroll              34    22
22)   Delaware Valley           31    24
23)   Denison                   30    NR
T24)   Rowan                     29    NR
T24)   Wittenberg                29    13

Dropped Out: St John Fisher and Dubuque

Also Receiving Votes: Monmouth (23), Salisbury (18), UW-LaCrosse (13), Case Western Reserve (11), Dubuque (11), Utica (7), Western New England (5), Carthage (4), DePauw (3), Whitworth (3), Christopher Newport (2), St John Fisher (2), Berry (1)


Voters: 02 Warhawk, D3MAFAN-MG, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HansenRatings, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF and smedindy

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   222    ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  2,  2,  2)
  2)   UW-Whitewater        212    ( 1,  2,  2,  2,  2,  3,  3,  3,  4)
  3)   Mount Union          210    ( 1,  1,  2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4,  4)
  4)   St Thomas            195    ( 2,  3,  4,  4,  4,  5,  5,  6,  6)
  5)   UW-Oshkosh           190    ( 3,  4,  5,  5,  5,  5,  5,  6,  6)
  6)   North Central        172    ( 4,  5,  5,  6,  6,  8,  8,  9, 11)
  7)   UW-Platteville       170    ( 6,  6,  7,  7,  7,  7,  7,  8,  9)
  8)   Linfield             164    ( 4,  6,  7,  7,  7,  9,  9, 10, 11)
  9)   St John's            157    ( 8,  8,  8,  8,  8,  9,  9,  9, 10)
10)   Hardin-Simmons       143    ( 7,  8, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 12, 13)
11)   Johns Hopkins        140    ( 9,  9, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12)
12)   Thomas More          113    (12, 12, 12, 13, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15)
13)   Wheaton              109    (10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 17, 17, 17)
14)   Franklin             106    (12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 16, 19)
15)   Stevenson             77    (12, 13, 13, 16, 18, 18, 20, 23, 24)
16)   St Lawrence           73    (14, 15, 15, 15, 17, 18, 19, 22, --)
17)   Wabash                60    (15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 21, 25, --)
18)   Coe                   59    (15, 16, 17, 18, 18, 19, 21, 25, --)
19)   Alfred                58    (14, 16, 18, 18, 18, 19, 22, 25, --)
20)   E Texas Baptist       39    (13, 16, 20, 20, 22, --, --, --, --)
21)   John Carroll          34    (11, 19, 19, 21, --, --, --, --, --)
22)   Delaware Valley       31    (17, 20, 20, 21, 22, 25, --, --, --)
23)   Denison               30    (16, 19, 19, 23, 24, 25, --, --, --)
T24)   Rowan                 29    (20, 20, 21, 21, 23, 23, 25, --, --)
T24)   Wittenberg            29    (17, 20, 20, 23, 24, 24, 25, --, --)

26)   Monmouth              23    (14, 17, 24)
27)   Salisbury             18    (21, 22, 22, 22, 25)
28)   UW-LaCrosse           13    (16, 23)
T29)   Case Western          11    (15)
T29)   Dubuque               11    (22, 23, 24, 24)
31)   Utica                  7    (19)
32)   W New England          5    (21)
33)   Carthage               4    (22)
T34)   DePauw                 3    (23)
T34)   Whitworth              3    (23)
T36)   Christopher Newport    2    (24)
T36)   St John Fisher         2    (24)
38)   Berry                  1    (25)

[retagent]

One interesting thing about the poll is the assumption that UWW is as good as they have been recently, and that UWP and UWO have risen in quality. What if UWW has come back to the pack, rather than UWO and UWP having risen to the elite status of UWW. Time will tell, I guess.

[02 Warhawk]

Gave retagent's question my best shot on the West Fan poll thread.

Sum it up...it's a little of both I think. Which seems like cop out answer but I think it applies.

[D3MAFAN]

Gave retagent's question my best shot on the West Fan poll thread.

Sum it up...it's a little of both I think. Which seems like cop out answer but I think it applies.

Well, does that still make them a serious championship contender? UW-Whitewater and Mount Union over the last decade has been playing on such a high level above the others, if going down a notch, would that make them a Top 5-8 team (3rd round team)?

[02 Warhawk]

Gave retagent's question my best shot on the West Fan poll thread.

Sum it up...it's a little of both I think. Which seems like cop out answer but I think it applies.

Well, does that still make them a serious championship contender? UW-Whitewater and Mount Union over the last decade has been playing on such a high level above the others, if going down a notch, would that make them a Top 5-8 team (3rd round team)?

I think their body of work this season so far suggests they are a contender.

[smedindy]

I also think it's a little Column A, a little Column B in regards to UWW, UWO and UWP.

[HansenRatings]

Well, does that still make them a serious championship contender? UW-Whitewater and Mount Union over the last decade has been playing on such a high level above the others, if going down a notch, would that make them a Top 5-8 team (3rd round team)?

I actually wrote a blog post about this at the beginning of the season. What my model is suggesting is that Mount Union and UWW are still as good as they have been over the last decade relative to the nation at large, but UMHB, Linfield, UST, SJU, UWO, UWP, and NCC are all now playing at that same level. Five years ago, UWW and UMU were the only teams to consistently achieve ratings over 0.995 (on a 0-1 scale, every National Champion since '99 had a rating >0.995). Now, pretty much all of the teams I mentioned have held steady above that threshold for the entire season.

Before you ask, yes, my model rates teams based on MoV, but I showed in my post that these teams' ratings aren't merely inflated because teams in 2016 are more likely to run up the score. On the contrary, teams now are no more likely to run up the score than they were in 1999.

[D3MAFAN]

Well, does that still make them a serious championship contender? UW-Whitewater and Mount Union over the last decade has been playing on such a high level above the others, if going down a notch, would that make them a Top 5-8 team (3rd round team)?

I actually wrote a blog post about this at the beginning of the season. What my model is suggesting is that Mount Union and UWW are still as good as they have been over the last decade relative to the nation at large, but UMHB, Linfield, UST, SJU, UWO, UWP, and NCC are all now playing at that same level. Five years ago, UWW and UMU were the only teams to consistently achieve ratings over 0.995 (on a 0-1 scale, every National Champion since '99 had a rating >0.995). Now, pretty much all of the teams I mentioned have held steady above that threshold for the entire season.

Before you ask, yes, my model rates teams based on MoV, but I showed in my post that these teams' ratings aren't merely inflated because teams in 2016 are more likely to run up the score. On the contrary, teams now are no more likely to run up the score than they were in 1999.

Hansen, has your projection model been updated for this past weeks games?

[HansenRatings]

It has. Surprisingly, my Top 25 features the same 25 teams as last week, just in a vastly different order from #'s 14 to 25.

Apparently Wittenberg's wins over quality opponents' outweighs a 3 point loss to Denison.
Wesley appears to "still" be the best team in the NJAC.
The Top 5 in the WIAC are good (see the west region fan poll for more on this)
No respect for Franklin.
Bethel's in the Top 25?
The E8 & MAC are MIA.
CWRU ain't played nobody.

http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings

[wesleydad]

It has. Surprisingly, my Top 25 features the same 25 teams as last week, just in a vastly different order from #'s 14 to 25.

Apparently Wittenberg's wins over quality opponents' outweighs a 3 point loss to Denison.
Wesley appears to "still" be the best team in the NJAC.
The Top 5 in the WIAC are good (see the west region fan poll for more on this)
No respect for Franklin.
Bethel's in the Top 25?
The E8 & MAC are MIA.
CWRU ain't played nobody.

http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings

I like the numbers about the NJAC.  My eye test says the same thing.  We shall see how it plays out in the next few weeks.

[smedindy]

You know that piece of paper where you had your Top 25 written on?

You may have to burn it and start again - at least the lower part.

[Mr. Ypsi]

You know that piece of paper where you had your Top 25 written on?

You may have to burn it and start again - at least the lower part.

I understand the feeling, but that is overstating a bit.  6 teams on my previous ballot lost, but two of them lost on the road to teams ranked higher (and neither was blown out), so no penalty will be assessed.  Franklin's gonna drop - have to think more to decide how far.  And it's 'good-bye, it's been nice to know ya' to DelVal, DePauw, and Rowan.  One of the replacements will be Wesley finally re-entering near the bottom of my ballot; the other two await further study.