D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[BoBo]

Or I'm over-thinking it...

[Ralph Turner]

Except when you have a big grouping of teams close to #2, perhaps #2 through #5. Then #2 and #3 of A could beat #2 of B but #2 through #5 of B could beat #4 and #5 of A, etc. etc.

Or I'm over-thinking it...

Yes, it might be a challenge to match a 7-team conference against a 10-team conference.

[emma17]

IMO- I think most conferences have teams that are typically weaker and I also think all good conferences struggle with beating each other up throughout the season- it's not exlusively and OAC or WIAC thing.  As such, when I compare conferences I prefer to look at the top 4 teams.  Out of the top 4 teams I try to determine how they would do against the top 4 from other conferences.  No conference other than the WIAC or OAC has the one dominant team, so you have to look past the obvious. 
In no particular order, following are some of the conferences I feel have a better top 4 than the OAC:
ASC-UMHB, Louisiana College, Mississippi College, McMurry and even HS.
WIAC- UWW, Oshkosh, Platteville, Eau Claire
MIAC- St. Thomas, Bethel, St. John (despite current issues), Augsburg
CCIW- NCC, Wheaton, IL Weslyan, Carthage or Elmhurst
NWC- Linfield, Pac Lutheran, Willamette, I'll have to only take 3 here.
IIAC- Coe, Dubuque, Wartburg, Central
OAC- Mt Union and then who?  Baldwin Wallace?  Capital?  ONU?  Muskingam?  Are these three non MT teams collectively better than the other conferences top teams?  I just don't think so. 

[AUPepBand]

IMO- I think most conferences have teams that are typically weaker and I also think all good conferences struggle with beating each other up throughout the season- it's not exlusively and OAC or WIAC thing.  As such, when I compare conferences I prefer to look at the top 4 teams.  Out of the top 4 teams I try to determine how they would do against the top 4 from other conferences.  No conference other than the WIAC or OAC has the one dominant team, so you have to look past the obvious. 
In no particular order, following are some of the conferences I feel have a better top 4 than the OAC:
ASC-UMHB, Louisiana College, Mississippi College, McMurry and even HS.
WIAC- UWW, Oshkosh, Platteville, Eau Claire
MIAC- St. Thomas, Bethel, St. John (despite current issues), Augsburg
CCIW- NCC, Wheaton, IL Weslyan, Carthage or Elmhurst
NWC- Linfield, Pac Lutheran, Willamette, I'll have to only take 3 here.
IIAC- Coe, Dubuque, Wartburg, Central
OAC- Mt Union and then who?  Baldwin Wallace?  Capital?  ONU?  Muskingam?  Are these three non MT teams collectively better than the other conferences top teams?  I just don't think so.

How do you think Salisbury, Alfred, Springfield and Ithaca/St. John Fisher would do against the OAC?

[emma17]

Really, the OAC is the dregs, eh?

The reason we're having this tussle is that the 2010 ONU team went to the round of 16.

The 2005 and 2006 Capital team made the quarters.

Many times, because of OAC shenanigans the runner up has 2 losses, thanks to Mt. Union.

Who would have in front of the OAC besides the WIAC? Tell me, I'm keen to know. the CCIW, E8 and MIAC are all strong, but even Wilmington ain't that bad. They may go o-fer, but they played a decent Mt. St. Joseph team tough.

Remember, they have just ONE non-conference game, so they knock heads nine times against each other. That leads to many two and three loss seasons for good to great teams that aren't purple.

Now Smed, let's not put words in my mouth.  Just because I don't buy into the OAC as the 2nd best conference doesn't mean I think they are the dregs. 
I'll make this statement about the OAC as well.  As much credit as we all give Coach Kehres and Mt for 18 or 19 consecutive conference championships, I don't think you can give the rest of the conference a pass for allowing it to happen. 

ONU- One way to say it is like you did- they made it to the final 16.  Another way to say it is they won ONE playoff game, and then got beat Soundly by NCC.  It only takes one win to make it to the final 16- and one win, in my book, doesn't qualify as a "deep playoff run"- which was your statement.

05 and 06 Capital did well as the #2 team.  That was quite a while ago and many things have changed since then- in particular a team named NCC that was just making its rise then.  I don't think you'd want any OAC team not named MT facing them any time soon. 

[smedindy]

Well, usually yes Capital, BW, ONU and John Carroll are top-flight. JCU is going through a down phase. It's a wacky year there, may need to let things sort out. But again, they took care of business in the one non-conference chance they had. So taking an appearance from a Cap - BW game, not knowing the history of it, is like taking WIAC game and just dismissing it as three-loss teams playing each other.

BTW, Massey does have the OAC ranked sixth, thus far, but there's still not a lot of data points out there.

BTW, BTW - the top of the CCIW always reminded me of the OAC without Mt. Union - but the bottom of the CCIW isn't as good as the bottom of the OAC. Again, lack of non-conference chances hurt the OAC in this game.

[emma17]

IMO- I think most conferences have teams that are typically weaker and I also think all good conferences struggle with beating each other up throughout the season- it's not exlusively and OAC or WIAC thing.  As such, when I compare conferences I prefer to look at the top 4 teams.  Out of the top 4 teams I try to determine how they would do against the top 4 from other conferences.  No conference other than the WIAC or OAC has the one dominant team, so you have to look past the obvious. 
In no particular order, following are some of the conferences I feel have a better top 4 than the OAC:
ASC-UMHB, Louisiana College, Mississippi College, McMurry and even HS.
WIAC- UWW, Oshkosh, Platteville, Eau Claire
MIAC- St. Thomas, Bethel, St. John (despite current issues), Augsburg
CCIW- NCC, Wheaton, IL Weslyan, Carthage or Elmhurst
NWC- Linfield, Pac Lutheran, Willamette, I'll have to only take 3 here.
IIAC- Coe, Dubuque, Wartburg, Central
OAC- Mt Union and then who?  Baldwin Wallace?  Capital?  ONU?  Muskingam?  Are these three non MT teams collectively better than the other conferences top teams?  I just don't think so.

How do you think Salisbury, Alfred, Springfield and Ithaca/St. John Fisher would do against the OAC?

AU Pep, I plead a bit uninformed when it comes to those 4 and I didn't look into their recent past.  I know they have all had good years and appear to be on a good track this year. I believe all or most of the teams have had a run-in with Mt in the past few years and haven't faired well.  Have they played any of the other OAC schools? 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, usually yes Capital, BW, ONU and John Carroll are top-flight. JCU is going through a down phase. It's a wacky year there, may need to let things sort out. But again, they took care of business in the one non-conference chance they had. So taking an appearance from a Cap - BW game, not knowing the history of it, is like taking WIAC game and just dismissing it as three-loss teams playing each other.

BTW, Massey does have the OAC ranked sixth, thus far, but there's still not a lot of data points out there.

BTW, BTW - the top of the CCIW always reminded me of the OAC without Mt. Union - but the bottom of the CCIW isn't as good as the bottom of the OAC. Again, lack of non-conference chances hurt the OAC in this game.

The CCIW team without a (conference) win in the 21st century is NPU.  They are 3-0 (including beating a solid WashU team by exactly the same margin that nationally-ranked Witt beat them) - what is Wilma's record?  The rest of our bottom appears to be Millikin (2-1), 4-time national champ Augie (0-3, all games close and against opponents who are now 10-2), and either Elmhurst (2-1) or Carthage (3-0).  Are you SURE you want to pit the bottom of the OAC against them (or at least declare the OAC clearly better)?

BTW, your beloved Massey declares the (non-d3, in football) NESCAC as the #1 conference.  HUH?!  Proof positive that Massey is NOT based solely on results (since NESCAC HAS none against anyone else - in football, it is intramurals).

IMHO, this year it is a close race among WIAC, CCIW, and ASC for #1 conference.  And there (alas) will never be enough evidence to resolve that debate.

[smedindy]

Ypsi,

I noticed that the D-3 Massey is a bit wonky with the NESCAC. Maybe I'll send a note. The overall ratings segregate out the NESCAC because of that but you need to find the D-3 teams in the big mess o' teams. I'd use Sagarin but ol' iconoclast Jeff doesn't put effort into that because USA Today won't buy it!

Wilma's only non-OAC loss was a close tussle with Mt. St. Joseph. Not a bad team. But would you put Millikin against John Carroll or Marietta?

I realize I may be arguing more historically than anything, and God knows why would I give the OAC more credit than they're due. But I do think the OAC, in years like this, doesn't look as strong as it could because of their round-robin. Of course, I would NEVER want them to give up the round-robin because that's the only way to get a true conference championship.

(This year, I also said the Witt QB was definitely the best QB in the NCAC. I must be getting soft with age...)

[emma17]

Ypsi,

I noticed that the D-3 Massey is a bit wonky with the NESCAC. Maybe I'll send a note. The overall ratings segregate out the NESCAC because of that but you need to find the D-3 teams in the big mess o' teams. I'd use Sagarin but ol' iconoclast Jeff doesn't put effort into that because USA Today won't buy it!

Wilma's only non-OAC loss was a close tussle with Mt. St. Joseph. Not a bad team. But would you put Millikin against John Carroll or Marietta?

I realize I may be arguing more historically than anything, and God knows why would I give the OAC more credit than they're due. But I do think the OAC, in years like this, doesn't look as strong as it could because of their round-robin. Of course, I would NEVER want them to give up the round-robin because that's the only way to get a true conference championship.

(This year, I also said the Witt QB was definitely the best QB in the NCAC. I must be getting soft with age...)

I'm sure this subject is ready for the back burner.  Hopefully this will be my last arguement and it relates to this idea that "the bottom of the OAC isn't as bad as the bottom of abc conference".
Below are Conference Opponent scores Vs Mt (I know Mt is great.  But a conference is making improvement when scores like the below are infrequent, as opposed to frequent as it is in the OAC):

2011:
58-7
66-7

2010:
51-7
51-0
52-0

2009:
56-0
58-0
56-0

2008:
51-13
55-0
49-0
49-7
49-0

2007:
62-0
62-3
59-0
57-0

These, IMO, are not scores that support the top to bottom strength of a conference.

[frank uible]

Also the winner of NESCAC will go undefeated, untied and unscored upon in the playoffs.

[K-Mack]

These, IMO, are not scores that support the top to bottom strength of a conference.

The OAC's argument has never been top to bottom strength though; someone wrote it above. It's been take our 2 through 5 and match it up vs. your conference's 1 through 4.

The lack of depth -- the same thing that hurts the NCAC -- also has to hurt the OAC.

I re-do the conference rankings this week. When Pat and I do them we always seriously consider moving the OAC down, but the reasoning never bears it out. In fact you DO have to count UMU as part of the conference, and quite often there are teams chasing UMU that would be winning other conferences.

That said this is the year it might move. Haven't gotten into the meat of the research yet so don't wanna comment further before Thursday's column posts.

[bleedpurple]

D3 Top 25 Fan Poll: Through Games of September 24th

1. Wisconsin Whitewater (14)        374 (pts)           1 (LW)
2. Mount Union (1)                      361                   2
3. St. Thomas                            333                    3
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor                 318                   5
5. Linfield                                  308                   7
6. Wheaton                                298                   6
7. Bethel                                   287                   4
8. North Central                         270                   8
9. Wesley                                  219                   9
10. Thomas More                        208                   12
11. Montclair State                      179                   15
12(t) Kean                                 176                   13
12(t) Redlands                            176                   14
14(t) Wabash                              169                   17
14(t). Wittenberg                         169                   18
16. Alfred                                   145                   16
17. Trine                                    115                   19
18. Louisiana College                     96                    unranked
19. Delaware Valley                       88                   unranked
20. Cortland State                         83                    23
21. California Lutheran                   72                    21
22. Salisbury                                61                    25
23. Wartburg                                60                    11
24. Wisconsin-Oshkosh                   46                    unranked
25. Wisconsin-Platteville                 42                    unranked

Dropped from Top 25: Ohio Northern, Hardin-Simmons, Hampden-Sydney, Baldwin-Wallace.

Also Receiving Votes Ohio Northern (35), Johns Hopkins (33), Wisconsin-Eau Claire (26), Dubuque (20), Trinity (20), Hardin-Simmons (17), Franklin (15), Adrian (11), Hampden-Sydney (9), Illinois Weslayan (6), McMurry (6), St. John Fisher (6), Baldwin-Wallace (5), Muskingum (3), Centre (2), Monmouth (2), Coe (1), Washington & Lee (1)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Looks like one of the 2 who have been putting Mount Union first didn't vote this week

[02 Warhawk]

I'll own up to Muskingum getting three votes.

Undefeated, and blew out the ninth team in the nation. I thought they deserved some recognition.