D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Mr. Ypsi · November 29, 2011, 08:54:48 PM

Quote from: K-Mack on November 29, 2011, 08:09:58 PM
Quote from: smedindy on November 23, 2011, 11:13:24 PM
And it's nowhere near analogous to the "Pitcher / MVP" debate. You can compare (especially now with modern statistical measures) the results of pitchers vs. position players.

No but it is analogous to the idea that voters using inconsistent methods skewed the results of the 1999 MVP race.

It skewed the 2011 AL MVP race too, though not fatally. One voter, as a matter of principle, left Verlander off his ballot (he claims Justin would have otherwise been #1 on his ballot); another had him EIGHTH.

(What startled me was that Valverde, with 49 saves in 49 chances did not receive a single point - Willie Hernandez, with 42 saves in 43 chances, was MVP in 1984!)

Mr. Ypsi · November 29, 2011, 09:13:17 PM

Quote from: K-Mack on November 29, 2011, 08:04:59 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 23, 2011, 10:14:50 PM
Quote from: smedindy on November 23, 2011, 11:13:24 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2011, 10:05:15 PM
Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2011, 09:50:37 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 16, 2011, 09:39:34 PM
It's bizarre how an undefeated team from the academically elite NCAC, SCAC, Centennial, SCIAC, LL or UAA can crack the top 15 (8, 9, 12, 13, 16 in your latest) but Amherst gets one vote.

They have to be made up of similar athletes, no? I guess lack of top 25 love is going to be the NESCAC's pennance for starting late and not playing non-con forever.

We should really look into making them ineligible for the poll, that way no one has to bother (and clearly some don't).

We don't have a point of reference. If they added just ONE game, even with the ECFC or the NEFC, then we'd have some point of reference. That's my issue and why I can't seem to vote for a NESCAC team.

Also, I gave a point of reference. It's not a non-conference result, but it's a point of reference. (see bold)

A point of reference as in how I can connect their results to the rest of the D-3 universe, Keith.

And it's nowhere near analogous to the "Pitcher / MVP" debate. You can compare (especially now with modern statistical measures) the results of pitchers vs. position players. I cannot tell how good Williams or Amherst are compared to the rest of D-3. Are they better than Salve Regina? Kean? Ithaca? You can't say for certain.

I disagree that that is a 'point of reference'. Being 'academically elite' and 'made up of similar athletes' is a non sequitur. Isn't it possible that the academically elite players who are serious about pursuing athletic excellence as well would choose a school where they could display athletic excellence?

IMO, NESCAC is not a d3 conference for football (much a I respect them in all other sports). By their own choice, they are intramurals in football. That is fine, I can respect that choice, but that IS their choice.

Well suffice to say that I disagree, about your use of the phrases "point of reference" and "non sequitur," as well as the substance of the argument. I stand by my original statements, because pointing out that the NESCAC is not a D-III conference for football or that there's no direct comparison isn't breaking any new ground.

Of course it would be better to make comparisons with the benefit of non-conference results and playoff interplay. Been beating that drum for years. It's inconsistent with their policies in other D-III sports. But I'm not trying in this post to go down that road again.

There is a comparison. It's not one you can prove through use of compared data, clearly. It's an educated guess. What if I wanted to compare Grinnell and Carleton and Lewis & Clark and RPI? Well there are technically a bunch of data points I can use to do this, but that might not be any more accurate than a guess. Polling, as we'd all admit, is an inexact science.

All of that deflects from the point:

If some people are voting for NESCAC teams and some are avoiding them altogether, what's the point of having them in the poll? Nobody's interests are served, not theirs or the poll's. Both the fan poll and real poll should take a stand -- rank the NESCAC where you think it belongs strength-wise or eliminate it from top 25 consideration entirely. What we have now is some voters giving them an honest guess and some voter throwing their hands up and saying "well we have no links to the rest of D3 therefore I cannot consider them: and what results is a ranking that neither accurately reflects the honest guesses or the fact that some find them impossible to consider. It's inconsistent with the rest of the poll, which is neither right nor wrong, just inconsistent.

I could probably take this up with a superior but it's mostly just occurred to me how I feel about it over the course of this discussion.

You've completely ignored why I called your "made up of similar athletes" argument a non sequitur. The football players at NESCAC schools are presumably roughly similar to the football players at other academically elite schools - academically. But is it not plausible that academically elite players who are ALSO athletically elite, motivated, and competitive might choose to attend a school where they can demonstrate that talent on a national stage? We have NOTHING to judge whether or not NESCAC football players are as athletically competitive as, say, UAA players.

I'm not AS dogmatic as the MVP voter who left Verlander off his ballot (despite feeling that Verlander was the MVP!), but I would never be likely to vote for a NESCAC team in a poll, and with only 8 games there is probably not much they could do to change my mind (unlike the 34 games Verlander pitched!)

bleedpurple · November 30, 2011, 12:05:13 PM

D3 FAN POLL PANEL'S QUARTERFINAL COMBINED PREDICTIONS (Playoff record to date: 19-5):

UW-W 42
Salisbury 24

Mount Union 30
Wabash 16

UMHB 31
Wesley 30

St. Thomas 28
St. John Fisher 17

6 people on the panel submitted predictions. UW-W was the only unanimous selection. Here is the breakdown of predicted winners of other games:

Mount Union-5
Wabash-1

St. Thomas-5
St. John Fisher-1

UMHB-4
Wesley-2

The poll should be out sometime this afternoon.

bleedpurple · November 30, 2011, 06:47:05 PM

Maybe we should now call ourselves the "Five Fanatics" but here are the Fan Poll results for the five of us who filled out ballots this week:

1. UW-Whitewater (5) 125 1 (LW)
2. Mount Union 120 2
3. (t) Mary Hardin-Baylor 111 4
4. (t) St. Thomas 111 3
5. Wesley 106 7
6. Wabash 102 8
7. Linfield 90 5
8. Salisbury 89 10
9. North Central 88 6
10. St. John Fisher 71 18
11. Delaware Valley 66 9
12. McMurry 61 11
13. California Lutheran 58 13
14. Kean 51 12
15. Monmouth 41 19
16. Bethel 40 17
17. Wheaton 39 16
18. Franklin 36 14
19. Centre 30 15
20. Trinity 29 21
21. Illinois Wesleyan 28 22 (t)
22. Johns Hopkins 27 20
23. Redlands 19 22(t)
24. Cortland State 18 25
25. Montclair State 13 24

Dropped Out of Top 25: None

Also Receiving Votes: Dubuque (10), Hobart (10), Baldwin-Wallace (8), UW-Oshkosh (8), Thomas More (5), Amherst (1)

BoBo · November 30, 2011, 07:43:57 PM

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 06:47:05 PM
Maybe we should now call ourselves the "Five Fanatics" but here are the Fan Poll results for the five of us who filled out ballots this week:

1. UW-Whitewater (5) 125 1 (LW)
2. Mount Union 120 2
3. (t) Mary Hardin-Baylor 111 4
4. (t) St. Thomas 111 3
5. Wesley 106 7
6. Wabash 102 8
7. Linfield 90 5
8. Salisbury 89 10
9. North Central 88 6
10. St. John Fisher 71 18
11. Delaware Valley 66 9
12. McMurry 61 11
13. California Lutheran 58 13
14. Kean 51 12
15. Monmouth 41 19
16. Bethel 40 17
17. Wheaton 39 16
18. Franklin 36 14
19. Centre 30 15
20. Trinity 29 21
21. Illinois Wesleyan 28 22 (t)
22. Johns Hopkins 27 20
23. Redlands 19 22(t)
24. Cortland State 18 25
25. Montclair State 13 24

Dropped Out of Top 25: None

Also Receiving Votes: Dubuque (10), Hobart (10), Baldwin-Wallace (8), UW-Oshkosh (8), Thomas More (5), Amherst (1)

Was (LW) based on how you "Five Fanatics" voted or the votes of all the usual voters?

bleedpurple · November 30, 2011, 08:13:58 PM

Quote from: BoBo on November 30, 2011, 07:43:57 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 06:47:05 PM
Maybe we should now call ourselves the "Five Fanatics" but here are the Fan Poll results for the five of us who filled out ballots this week:

1. UW-Whitewater (5) 125 1 (LW)
2. Mount Union 120 2
3. (t) Mary Hardin-Baylor 111 4
4. (t) St. Thomas 111 3
5. Wesley 106 7
6. Wabash 102 8
7. Linfield 90 5
8. Salisbury 89 10
9. North Central 88 6
10. St. John Fisher 71 18
11. Delaware Valley 66 9
12. McMurry 61 11
13. California Lutheran 58 13
14. Kean 51 12
15. Monmouth 41 19
16. Bethel 40 17
17. Wheaton 39 16
18. Franklin 36 14
19. Centre 30 15
20. Trinity 29 21
21. Illinois Wesleyan 28 22 (t)
22. Johns Hopkins 27 20
23. Redlands 19 22(t)
24. Cortland State 18 25
25. Montclair State 13 24

Dropped Out of Top 25: None

Also Receiving Votes: Dubuque (10), Hobart (10), Baldwin-Wallace (8), UW-Oshkosh (8), Thomas More (5), Amherst (1)

Was (LW) based on how you "Five Fanatics" voted or the votes of all the usual voters?

Last week I think we had 8. I didn't check back to see if we are losing ballots based on who has been eliminated from the playoffs. I know we lost one due to superstition and two due to the busyness of the season.

Ralph Turner · November 30, 2011, 10:28:25 PM

I will submit a ballot next week.

Thanks for doing the poll.

FCGrizzliesGrad · November 30, 2011, 10:45:04 PM

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 08:13:58 PM
Last week I think we had 8. I didn't check back to see if we are losing ballots based on who has been eliminated from the playoffs. I know we lost one due to superstition and two due to the busyness of the season.

I still voted even though my Grizzlies were beaten by UWW.
Only 5 ballots and still just 1 spot was tied (not counting the ORV)

BoBo · December 01, 2011, 12:35:06 AM

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 08:13:58 PM
Quote from: BoBo on November 30, 2011, 07:43:57 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 06:47:05 PM
Maybe we should now call ourselves the "Five Fanatics" but here are the Fan Poll results for the five of us who filled out ballots this week:

1. UW-Whitewater (5) 125 1 (LW)
2. Mount Union 120 2
3. (t) Mary Hardin-Baylor 111 4
4. (t) St. Thomas 111 3
5. Wesley 106 7
6. Wabash 102 8
7. Linfield 90 5
8. Salisbury 89 10
9. North Central 88 6
10. St. John Fisher 71 18
11. Delaware Valley 66 9
12. McMurry 61 11
13. California Lutheran 58 13
14. Kean 51 12
15. Monmouth 41 19
16. Bethel 40 17
17. Wheaton 39 16
18. Franklin 36 14
19. Centre 30 15
20. Trinity 29 21
21. Illinois Wesleyan 28 22 (t)
22. Johns Hopkins 27 20
23. Redlands 19 22(t)
24. Cortland State 18 25
25. Montclair State 13 24

Dropped Out of Top 25: None

Also Receiving Votes: Dubuque (10), Hobart (10), Baldwin-Wallace (8), UW-Oshkosh (8), Thomas More (5), Amherst (1)

Was (LW) based on how you "Five Fanatics" voted or the votes of all the usual voters?

Last week I think we had 8. I didn't check back to see if we are losing ballots based on who has been eliminated from the playoffs. I know we lost one due to superstition and two due to the busyness of the season.

You must be pulling our collective leg(s)? Stopped with their ballot because of a superstition? But, the superstition didn't bother them during the regular season. That's

bleedpurple · December 01, 2011, 04:19:05 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 30, 2011, 10:28:25 PM
I will submit a ballot next week.

Thanks for doing the poll.

Sounds great. It's actually kind of a fun process to figure out how far to drop or raise teams depending on playoff outcomes.

FCGrizzliesGrad · December 02, 2011, 07:28:28 AM

Quote from: bleedpurple on December 01, 2011, 04:19:05 PM
Sounds great. It's actually kind of a fun process to figure out how far to drop or raise teams depending on playoff outcomes.

On my ballot the 8 that lost dropped between 2 (Linfield to 7th, Kean to 16th) and 5 (Monmouth to 22nd)
Of the 8 that won, the top 4 stayed put, Wabash and Wesley moved up 3 spots to 5th and 6th, Salisbury up 2 to 8th, and SJF up 9 to 14th.

emma17 · December 02, 2011, 03:38:19 PM

Quote from: BoBo on December 01, 2011, 12:35:06 AM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 08:13:58 PM
Quote from: BoBo on November 30, 2011, 07:43:57 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 30, 2011, 06:47:05 PM
Maybe we should now call ourselves the "Five Fanatics" but here are the Fan Poll results for the five of us who filled out ballots this week:

1. UW-Whitewater (5) 125 1 (LW)
2. Mount Union 120 2
3. (t) Mary Hardin-Baylor 111 4
4. (t) St. Thomas 111 3
5. Wesley 106 7
6. Wabash 102 8
7. Linfield 90 5
8. Salisbury 89 10
9. North Central 88 6
10. St. John Fisher 71 18
11. Delaware Valley 66 9
12. McMurry 61 11
13. California Lutheran 58 13
14. Kean 51 12
15. Monmouth 41 19
16. Bethel 40 17
17. Wheaton 39 16
18. Franklin 36 14
19. Centre 30 15
20. Trinity 29 21
21. Illinois Wesleyan 28 22 (t)
22. Johns Hopkins 27 20
23. Redlands 19 22(t)
24. Cortland State 18 25
25. Montclair State 13 24

Dropped Out of Top 25: None

Also Receiving Votes: Dubuque (10), Hobart (10), Baldwin-Wallace (8), UW-Oshkosh (8), Thomas More (5), Amherst (1)

Was (LW) based on how you "Five Fanatics" voted or the votes of all the usual voters?

Last week I think we had 8. I didn't check back to see if we are losing ballots based on who has been eliminated from the playoffs. I know we lost one due to superstition and two due to the busyness of the season.

You must be pulling our collective leg(s)? Stopped with their ballot because of a superstition? But, the superstition didn't bother them during the regular season. That's

Bobo, I agree- that is crazy. Doesn't that pollster know you can use 13 packets of #13 Herb Spiritual Bath and take a bath every morning for a total
of 13 days to clear away a really bad jinx?

bleedpurple · December 02, 2011, 10:58:23 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on December 02, 2011, 07:28:28 AM
Quote from: bleedpurple on December 01, 2011, 04:19:05 PM
Sounds great. It's actually kind of a fun process to figure out how far to drop or raise teams depending on playoff outcomes.
On my ballot the 8 that lost dropped between 2 (Linfield to 7th, Kean to 16th) and 5 (Monmouth to 22nd)
Of the 8 that won, the top 4 stayed put, Wabash and Wesley moved up 3 spots to 5th and 6th, Salisbury up 2 to 8th, and SJF up 9 to 14th.

I did some shaking up after UW-W and Mount, which remained 1 and 2:

Wesley replaced Linfield at #3 (from 7).
UMHB moved from 5 to 4.
Wabash jumped from 8 to 5.
I dumped St. Thomas from 4 to 6.
Linfield fell from 3 to 7.
NCC fell from 6 to 8.
Salisbury moved from 10 to 9.
St. John Fisher jumped from 16 to 10.

Obviously, I was very impressed with Wesley, Wabash, and Fisher last week.

Mr. Ypsi · December 02, 2011, 11:41:37 PM

I'm not a voter in the national fan poll, but vote in the north region poll. Wabash beating NCC by 1 at home, on a very lucky carom of the 2-point conversion (see the intended Wabash receiver on the ground in agony thinking he cost them the game!), leaves me waiting for tomorrow's game in Alliance before deciding if I even move Wabash ahead of NCC, much less several slots ahead.

This is NOT meant to diss the LGs - they deserved the win on a remarkable comeback. I thought NCC would win by 2-3 TDs - I was wrong (though I looked good for three quarters

). IF Wabash wins tomorrow, I'll have them first, NCC second, and UMU third - a result I never could have imagined! If UMU wins (as I predict), I'm gonna really agonize over #2.

bleedpurple · December 03, 2011, 10:27:05 PM

A great playoff season so far! A few upsets, some major comebacks, and still plenty of purple power. Some of the inter-region action has been fun to follow. At the end of the day, the semi-finals consist of the purples, Wesley (who overcame an early season loss), and St. Thomas.

How accurate were the polls? Here is how these teams were ranked in the pre-season polls:

D3football.com Poll: #1, #2, #3, #5.

D3 Top 25 Fan Poll: #1, #2, #4, #5