D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

While I was writing this, Bobo responded with some of the same points, but I still thought I'd post the below nonetheless:

I preface my thoughts by agreeing that Franklin CERTAINLY has a chance. However, I do think your reasoning based on last year's game may be a bit optimistic.  While in the strictest sense, Franklin "kept it close" for 3 quarters", UW-W did score 6 seconds into the 4th quarter extending their lead to 17 points. And while they may not have had a rushing game at all AGAINST UW-W (-11 yards rushing), they did average over 160 yards per game on the ground when you take away the sack yardage (which I still believe should be held against the passing game). There are also facts that could support a UW-W blowout win (which I readily acknowledge you never said there WEREN'T):

1. Last year's final score probably shouldn't be completely ignored: UW-W 52-21.
2. It is improbable that sophomore QB Jonny West's game is quite at the level that Gagliardi Finalist Kyle Ray's was when he played against UW-W.
3. In last year's game sophomore QB Lee Brekke was making his first collegiate start for UW-W. 

But once again, having said all that, I do believe Franklin has a chance to win.

Enjoy the game!

Lee Brekke had quite the game last year. You'd never have known it was his first start looking at him. If a sophomore can do that in his first start I wonder what a sophomore in his second start can do So I still have hope that West (while probably not performing quite as well as Kyle Ray) can perform well enough.

I think the key factors will be:
a) Whether the Grizzlies can run the ball at all... it's hard to win when you go for -11 yards against a tough defense. If we can at least produce an adequate rushing performance this time, that will force the defense to respect the run enough to open up the passing game
b) Which Grizzlies defense shows up... if the defense from the first half last week shows up, UWW will be too much even for our offense to keep up with. If the defense from the second half shows up and plays a full 60 minutes (a bad couple minutes either side of halftime last year hurt big) that could be enough for the Grizzlies offense to pull it off
c) Who gets off to the fast start... I don't know how much experience UWW has at being behind early on but I'm guessing it doesn't happen too often. Franklin likes to get out front early (but they managed to come back from 14 down last week) but I know it will be tougher to do that than normal. I think it could be important for the Grizzlies to get that early lead and put the pressure on to get UWW out of their comfort zone.

I think the range of possible scores for Franklin is somewhere between 17-40 (I just don't see UWW completely shutting them down and giving up single digits) and the range for UWW is 24-50 (could I make the ranges any larger? )
To be honest, if I absolutely had to predict I'd sadly have to say Franklin loses by 14-17... but that's why we play the game on the field rather than on paper. We can argue till we're blue in the face (or purple for Warhawks) but once the ball is kicked it all goes out the window. Too bad we have to wait another day and a half...

Win or lose, I think it'll be a great game. Hopefully both teams will learn a lot of valuable things and we'll meet again in a few months

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Just to play devil's advocate here (since the weekend can't come quick enough and there's been plenty of talk this week about voting methods) and to get the thread back onto the Fan Poll a bit...

If a team who's borderline top 25, like Franklin or UW-Oshkosh this week, were to have an excellent performance and come close but lose (say 28-27 or something) to one of the top teams would everyone still drop them out of the top 25 (unless they were ranked top 10-15 and would probably stay just in the rankings) or would someone consider keeping them at the same spot or even raising them slightly because of a strong performance against a top team?

I guess it's kinda like saying, is a loss a loss whether or not it's by 50 to an average team or 1 point to the best team and thus must be dropped at least X number of positions, or are there enough different levels of losses where there's the unique situation a loss could still be viewed positively in voters eyes

I'll go ahead and post my opinion... I don't know if I'd raise someone in the poll even though they lost (unless some teams above lost and dropped) but I would be willing to drop a team little or none if the right situation arose.

[BoBo]

^^ GrizzliesGrad, I've noticed in the past that lower ranked teams, teams also receiving votes or unranked teams that perform well against highly ranked teams have routinely increase their vote totals in the following weeks poll. IMO, they are rewarded for their strong performance. I think it sometimes matters what other teams around them do as well.

[smedindy]

If FC is close to UW-W, they will be rewarded.

I noticed that Auburn dropped out of the rankings in the AP and dropped a few spots in the coaches poll based on their 'win' against Utah State. Again, Utah State should have won, a couple of flukes happened and they didn't. Many commentators and observers I heard, read and watched Saturday and Sunday said Utah State was indeed the best team. Auburn was not rewarded at all for the win.

So if FC actually leads UW-W and loses like Utah St. lost, I bet UW-W won't be #1. Winning ugly is one thing; winning by a couple of flukes is another.

[emma17]

FC- To your question on a quality loss, I definately see a team moving up in rankings if they lose to a highly ranked team in a competitive game.  If Franklin losses in a close and well played game, then I for one will surely move them up in the fan poll.  As I already see Oshkosh as #15, if they play Mt tough and lose, I certainly won't move them down.  Depending on how others do, I may very well move them up. 

[02 Warhawk]

If a team who's borderline top 25, like Franklin or UW-Oshkosh this week, were to have an excellent performance and come close but lose (say 28-27 or something) to one of the top teams would everyone still drop them out of the top 25 (unless they were ranked top 10-15 and would probably stay just in the rankings) or would someone consider keeping them at the same spot or even raising them slightly because of a strong performance against a top team?

I guess it all depends on what the rest of the top 25 does. If most everyone in top 25 wins, I'll have a tough time dropping a team (that won) out of the poll, just so a team (that lost) like UWO can take its place. No matter who they played or how close it was.

So if FC actually leads UW-W and loses like Utah St. lost, I bet UW-W won't be #1. Winning ugly is one thing; winning by a couple of flukes is another.

UWW is playing a ranked team on the road. They will stay #1 if they win by 1 or 50.

So yes, I'll take that bet.

[smedindy]

You may be right - there is a degree of difference there. Ack, shouldn't post with an eye on the Saints / Packers.

[emma17]

"I guess it all depends on what the rest of the top 25 does. If most everyone in top 25 wins, I'll have a tough time dropping a team (that won) out of the poll, just so a team (that lost) like UWO can take its place. No matter who they played or how close it was."
02- Don't you feel that the above is one of the many problems of the BCS as well as rankings in general?  As an example, lets say NCC played UWW and Mt Union in the first two games- and lost both games in close contests.  Would you not have them in your top 25 if all the other teams were 2-0? 

[02 Warhawk]

"I guess it all depends on what the rest of the top 25 does. If most everyone in top 25 wins, I'll have a tough time dropping a team (that won) out of the poll, just so a team (that lost) like UWO can take its place. No matter who they played or how close it was."
02- Don't you feel that the above is one of the many problems of the BCS as well as rankings in general?  As an example, lets say NCC played UWW and Mt Union in the first two games- and lost both games in close contests.  Would you not have them in your top 25 if all the other teams were 2-0?

BCS blows. Computers shouldn't determine national championship games. DIII (and every other possible sporting event) does it right with a playoff system.

Back to your question. Yea, I think I would have a tough time moving NCC of out the top 25 if they start off losing to the top two ranked teams in the country. Especially when NCC started out ranked 3rd (or 4th).

But I'm not sure what that has to do with my post that you quoted above. I was talking about moving a team like UWO into the top 25 (after a loss), when all other top 25 teams won.

[emma17]

02-
I'm practicing the important communication principle of "seek first to understand".
As I understand your position, only teams given a pre-seasonp top 25 ranking should be given ranking privileges if they play a great game and lose against top ranked teams? 
Isn't there room for subjectivity?

[Ralph Turner]

When looking at an outcome, what would one expect to happen in a match between Top 25 teams in which one team takes its first flight in who knows how long, across 2 time zones, to play a game that is 8 hours later than its usual start time?

I expect Redlands to gain 5-6 points on home field advantage with that information alone.

[02 Warhawk]

02-
I'm practicing the important communication principle of "seek first to understand".
As I understand your position, only teams given a pre-season top 25 ranking should be given ranking privileges if they play a great game and lose against top ranked teams? 
Isn't there room for subjectivity?

No, I just didn't understand what you were trying to get at....that's all.

No schools receive any "special privileges" for being in the top 25. When I fill out my poll my philosophy is: If a school wins, then more than likely its positioning within the poll will improve from the week before. However, if they lose, then they will fall down the rankings (possibly out of it all together, depending on where they were previously ranked). Kind of simple.

If a team is already outside the top 25 (UWO) and then loses, I can't justify moving them up into the poll. No matter who they lost to, or by how much.

[smedindy]

"I guess it all depends on what the rest of the top 25 does. If most everyone in top 25 wins, I'll have a tough time dropping a team (that won) out of the poll, just so a team (that lost) like UWO can take its place. No matter who they played or how close it was."
02- Don't you feel that the above is one of the many problems of the BCS as well as rankings in general?  As an example, lets say NCC played UWW and Mt Union in the first two games- and lost both games in close contests.  Would you not have them in your top 25 if all the other teams were 2-0?

BCS blows. Computers shouldn't determine national championship games. DIII (and every other possible sporting event) does it right with a playoff system.

Now wait a minute.

A. Yes, there should be a playoff system in D-1A. One rep from each D-1 conference and then at-larges to make a 16 team tourney.

B. The BCS have neutered the impact of the computers. When it started, they had all of the right elements to create a good ratings system, but they threw out the margin of victory calculations (even though there was a limit on how big of a margin counted, in Sagarin especially there is diminishing returns), revamped the SOS to where it's not that relevant (or accurate), and then didn't throw out games against 1-AA schools so they can feast on the Charleston Southerns of the world instead of playing real, actual opponents.

I feel that good computer rankings are better than trusting the assistant to the traveling secretary to cast the coaches' vote (which may happen in the D-1 coaches poll, never here!) or some cynical ink-stained wretch who never sees anyone outside of his own little geographic area except for when he has a chance to catch a game on TV. But the BCS wanted to 'rig' the system - heck they always want to 'rig' the system and so they're not using real computer rankings.

I know the RPI has flaws, but they use it for many sports in the NCAA and it does a decent job. Same with the PairWise system for hockey. A good computer ranking can help aid the discussion of who should stay or go...TO A PLAYOFF!

And yes, you can keep the bowl games for the other teams outside of the 16.

[Ralph Turner]

02-
I'm practicing the important communication principle of "seek first to understand".As I understand your position, only teams given a pre-seasonp top 25 ranking should be given ranking privileges if they play a great game and lose against top ranked teams? 
Isn't there room for subjectivity?

+1!   

[emma17]

02-
I'm practicing the important communication principle of "seek first to understand".
As I understand your position, only teams given a pre-season top 25 ranking should be given ranking privileges if they play a great game and lose against top ranked teams? 
Isn't there room for subjectivity?

No, I just didn't understand what you were trying to get at....that's all.

No schools receive any "special privileges" for being in the top 25. When I fill out my poll my philosophy is: If a school wins, then more than likely its positioning within the poll will improve from the week before. However, if they lose, then they will fall down the rankings (possibly out of it all together, depending on where they were previously ranked). Kind of simple.

If a team is already outside the top 25 (UWO) and then loses, I can't justify moving them up into the poll. No matter who they lost to, or by how much.

02, I just don't know that I totally understand it because much of what you say relies on some preseason "top 25" list as if it is a true ranking of the best teams based on fact.  Wouldn't you agree that there are probably several schools that don't make a pre-season top 25 list that more than likely will end up there during the season?  And don't you agree that there are some that make the list that will be gone?  That's the challenge of the preseason poll- there is a huge amount of unknown.  But now we have one game under our belts for most teams.  So take Oshkosh, you'd agree they beat a pretty darn good team in Central wouldn't you?  Central is probably a better team than the majority of teams that were beat by preseason Top 25 teams- right?  Just in terms of strength of schedule alone for week one Oshkosh is a top team- and they won.  Then, if they play the #2 team in the country really tough and lose- you don't feel you have enough evidence that Oshkosh is worthy of moving into the top 25?