D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[smedindy]

Yanked out Oshkosh and Adrian. Threw in Hobart and McMurry. But again, after the Top 15, from 16-35 in my notes it's just a jumble.

[sflzman]

Yanked out Oshkosh and Adrian. Threw in Hobart and McMurry. But again, after the Top 15, from 16-35 in my notes it's just a jumble.

Yeah I have no idea what to do....I thought Adrian was for real....

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I had 3 teams drop out of my list... added teams with 0, 1, and 2 losses
I could do with an extra 5-10 spots on my ballot for worthy teams

[bleedpurple]

D3 Top 25 Fan Poll: Week 10

1. UW-Whitewater (13)          421        1
2. Mount Union (4)                 411        2
3. St. Thomas                        384        3
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor            368        4
5. Linfield                              367        5
6. North Central                     337        6
7. Wesley                              313        7
8. Wabash                             271        8
9. Thomas More                     268        9
10. California Lutheran           254       10
11. Wheaton                          242       13
12. Delaware Valley               240       12
13. Salisbury                          177       11
14. Redlands                          163       15
15. Johns Hopkins                  155       16
16. Trinity (Tx)                       120       24
17. Illinois Wesleyan               113      13
18. Montclair State                 107       19
19. Louisiana College              101       23
20. Kean                                  92       22
21. St. Olaf                              83       unranked
22. Franklin                             79        21
23. Bethel                               78        18
24. Hobart                               68       25
25. McMurry                            59       unranked

Dropping Out of the Top 25  Adrian, Wisconsin-Oshkosh

Also Receiving Votes Centre (53), Dubuque (46), Wittenberg (42), Wisconsin-Oshkosh (26), Cortland State (18), Hampden-Sydney (16), Baldwin-Wallace (13), St. John Fisher (13), Washington and Lee (11), Wartburg (6), Monmouth (5), Lycoming (4), Lewis and Clark (1)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Some interesting things I'd like to hear other voter's opinions on...

Salisbury lost to a highly ranked Wesley and just dropped 2 spots while Illinois Wesleyan won and dropped 4... on my ballot Salisbury went from 8 to 18 while IWU went from 20 to 17

Bethel won and dropped 5 spots? It wasn't a tight game to a winless team or something.... they aren't in my top 25 though

Speaking of winless teams... St Olaf beat a winless team and went from unranked to 21st?... they're not in my top 25 either

UW-Oshkosh still has quite a few votes... I know they played UWW tough, but while they're probably the best three loss team in the country can you really have a three loss team that high?... they dropped out of my poll from 22nd last week

Lastly... doesn't seem like too much variance in the teams. If you take out the three ballot orphans from me (Monmouth 21st, Lycoming 22nd, L&C 25th) then the other 16 ballots only had 35 different teams. The 25 ballots in the d3f poll has 42 teams. I guess I'm just a little surprised there aren't a few more teams picking up a couple votes here or there.

[Ralph Turner]

Okay...

Some interesting things I'd like to hear other voter's opinions on...

Salisbury lost to a highly ranked Wesley and just dropped 2 spots while Illinois Wesleyan won and dropped 4... on my ballot Salisbury went from 8 to 18 while IWU went from 20 to 17


Salisbury played its tough rival in another critical game and performed the way that a #11 team at a #7 team should have;  hard fought game, the higher ranked team won at home.

IWU played the 7th place team in the CCIW and almost lost. I don't know why their voters rewarded them nationally. They did get more 35 points (about 1 1/2 ballot slots) on the real Top 25.  I attribute that to "float up". Other teams above them lost or performed below expectations, and IWU just "floated up" into that slot.


Bethel won and dropped 5 spots? It wasn't a tight game to a winless team or something.... they aren't in my top 25 though

Early season hype and total season performance being reassessed against late season realities of other teams. Bethel is being re-positioned

Speaking of winless teams... St Olaf beat a winless team and went from unranked to 21st?... they're not in my top 25 either

They are moving  up, as a 7-1 team in a strong canference, should as national voters put the record into perspective. Olies got 38 more votes, which is a little over 2 slots on the 17 ballots cast this week.

UW-Oshkosh still has quite a few votes... I know they played UWW tough, but while they're probably the best three loss team in the country can you really have a three loss team that high?... they dropped out of my poll from 22nd last week

Most agree.  Good team. Probably Top 35 quality but voters cannot give a vote for "#27" on the ballot

Lastly... doesn't seem like too much variance in the teams. If you take out the three ballot orphans from me (Monmouth 21st, Lycoming 22nd, L&C 25th) then the other 16 ballots only had 35 different teams. The 25 ballots in the d3f poll has 42 teams. I guess I'm just a little surprised there aren't a few more teams picking up a couple votes here or there.

We have 17 voters this week. We must consider how many other "orphans" would show up on another 8 ballots that are in the D3football.com poll.  These are the teams with their vote totals that we don't have:
Huntingdon (1), Birmngham-Southern (6),  Widener (7), Trinity CT (11), Adrian (12). Trinity CT and Adrian are probably the only real differences.  Adrian got spanked for its performance against Albion, which clearly is a tougher team and played a tougher schedule, as Pat and Keith discussed in the Monday podcast. (Check it out friends.) Considering the geographical distribution of the voters, this isn't bad.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Excellent comments from Ralph.

FCGrizzlies, I think a lot of what you're observing is the "natural float" that Ralph describes.  Sometimes a team might move up/down a few slots without gaining/losing that many overall voting points because of what happens to teams around them.

"Salisbury lost to a highly ranked Wesley and just dropped 2 spots while Illinois Wesleyan won and dropped 4... on my ballot Salisbury went from 8 to 18 while IWU went from 20 to 17"

I think everyone's pretty unanimous that Salisbury doesn't deserve to drop after losing a close game to multiple-time-semifinalist Wesley, especially given their body of work to date.  They've pulverized good teams in the Empire 8 all season.  They deserve to stay up there.

IWU, as Ralph said, squeaked out a close win over 3-5 Millikin.  How is that worth more, in youir mind, than a close loss to Wesley?

Furthermore, there's an element of natural correction that just came a week late; IWU, previously ranked above Redlands, has now dropped below them.  IWU lost to North Central by 24 at home; Redlands defeated North Central earlier this season.  Presumably, some people bumped Redlands above IWU.

"Bethel won and dropped 5 spots? It wasn't a tight game to a winless team or something..."
"St Olaf beat a winless team and went from unranked to 21st?..."

As Ralph said, St Olaf wasn't so much rewarded for "beating a winless team" as they were for their body of work to date, with people correctly re-positioning them ahead of Bethel (how does one explain Bethel ranked 18th and St. Olaf unranked last week?). 

People are starting to correct an oversight - St. Olaf is 7-1 with a head-to-head ROAD victory over 6-2 Bethel, so perhaps some people finally noticed "Gee, St. Olaf has a better record than Bethel and beat them head-to-head, maybe I should have them ranked higher."

"UW-Oshkosh still has quite a few votes... I know they played UWW tough, but while they're probably the best three loss team in the country can you really have a three loss team that high?..."

I think that you can have a three-loss team from the WIAC ranked that high, especially with one of those losses being a nonconference game vs. Mount Union.  It's worth noting that some of the WIAC teams' records are depressed because they have to schedule "non-conference" games against each other to fill out their schedule (UW-Stevens Point is playing UW-Platteville twice this season, and UW-Stout is playing UW-Oshkosh twice, and UW-La Crosse is playing UW-Whitewater twice), but if you look at their performance against other conferences, it's pretty obvious that the mid-pack WIAC teams would be contending for and/or winning titles in lesser conferences.  Look at some of the nonconference performances posted by the bottom of the WIAC:

UW-Eau Claire beat traditional power St. John's (MN) 47-19
UW-Stevens Point beat MIAA champ Albion 14-3
UW-La Crosse led Mary-Hardin Baylor 20-17 at the end of the third quarter

And those three teams all currently have a losing conference record.

Remember, the rankings aren't just a projection of "who is going to make the playoffs" - at least in theory, it should be an attempt to rank the 25 best teams.  Tell me, with any conviction, that UW-Oshkosh wouldn't beat most of the teams ranked "below" them in the others receiving votes category.

[USee]

IWU won a rivalry game in the CCIW on the road. Tough league and any road win in this league is a good win. I wouldn't reward them but I certainly wouldn't penalize them. Millikin isn't a 7th place team in any other conference. They are 3-5 and lost 3 of those games by a total of 11 pts. They are 7th place for a reason but they could probably make the playoffs in a couple other conferences.

[emma17]

Ex Tartan that was a great post and I agree on all points you made. 

IMO- it seems some pollsters prefer to rely mostly on wins and losses vs "who would beat who" when ranking teams.  This week especially I deemphasized wins and losses and simply listed the teams I think are the best.  My top 7 is like everyone elses.  My 8-14 include Cal Lutheran, LA College, Salisbury, Wheaton, Del Valley, McMurry and IL Wesleyan.  I think these teams, regardless of a loss here and there, would beat a Wabash, Thomas More and Redlands. 

I have Oshkosh at 21.  No offense to FCGrizz, but IMO a 3-loss Oshkosh is a heavy favorite over a 1-loss Franklin.     
   

[ExTartanPlayer]

IWU won a rivalry game in the CCIW on the road. Tough league and any road win in this league is a good win. I wouldn't reward them but I certainly wouldn't penalize them. Millikin isn't a 7th place team in any other conference. They are 3-5 and lost 3 of those games by a total of 11 pts. They are 7th place for a reason but they could probably make the playoffs in a couple other conferences.

I agree; but I don't think that dropping IWU this week is so much "penalizing" them as it is putting them where they should be at this point in the season.  Three teams passed them this week:

Redlands defeated the same North Central team that just beat IWU 24-0.  All other things being equal (i.e. both teams being 6-1/7-1), I think it's fair to move Redlands ahead of IWU.

Hopkins is undefeated and just annihiliated the 2nd/3rd best teams in their conference in back-to-back weeks, and the last time they made the playoofs (2009) they did win a pair of playoff games, including a road win over current #9 Thomas More.  I think they've earned a lofty ranking.

Trinity has just shot up the rankings, which does surprise me.  That's the only team currently ranked ahead of IWU that I'd have an issue with, considering the SCAC's lack of recent playoff success (and that's NOT because they play UMHB in the first round every year, a myth that I debunked on the SCAC boards a few weeks ago).  Nonetheless, Trinity plays their undefeated conference compatriot Centre this week, and if they win, I think it would be safe to say that they've earned their ranking.

[ExTartanPlayer]

IMO- it seems some pollsters prefer to rely mostly on wins and losses vs "who would beat who" when ranking teams.  This week especially I deemphasized wins and losses and simply listed the teams I think are the best.  My top 7 is like everyone elses.  My 8-14 include Cal Lutheran, LA College, Salisbury, Wheaton, Del Valley, McMurry and IL Wesleyan.  I think these teams, regardless of a loss here and there, would beat a Wabash, Thomas More and Redlands. 

I applaud your boldness; I especially like the way that you put it - one should "deemphasize" overall record in favor of listing the best teams.

The only thing that I quibble with in your post is the inclusion of Redlands in that second group.  Redlands' only loss came 28-24 to Cal Lutheran, they beat North Central to open the season, and NCC might ultimately defeat both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan (included in your 8-14 spots).  I think Redlands deserves to be mentioned with that 8-14 group you've listed. 

I do agree that Thomas More is terribly overranked, primarily because they're undefeated and they've made the playofs the past two seasons.  The PAC is way down right now, and even with that TMC barely squeaked past St. Vincent and W&J (who are both 4-4 and decidedly mediocre).

I can't really figure out whether Wabash is REALLY good or just PRETTY good, so I tend to agree that they are way overranked "right now" - but it wouldn't surprise me if they made a nice playoff run.

[Ralph Turner]

One other thing to remember today, when the regional rankings appear...

The criteria that we use for the Top 25 are different from the critieria that are used to establish the regional rankings.

I expect several "weak" undefeated teams to have better criteria than some one-loss teams.   

[smedindy]

Wabash's test will come this week. I would think a 10-0 Wabash would be a #2 seed in the North. I can see the CCIW champ at #3, maybe and that would be an epic struggle. But of course, if Wabash loses to Witt they may be on the road if they get in at all.

We did have a few voters drift out and them come back in, thanks to Jay's hard work. I think this may be the result of two weeks of 'refactoring'. I know I've re-assessed my ballot quite a bit based on who I think is better. I dropped Wabash a spot.

[bleedpurple]

Here is a look at how the ballots came in for Bethel weeks 9 and 10.

(Week 9/ Week 10)


Nonvoter, 25
17, 24
19, 25
18, 19
21, 18
14, 13
nonvoter, unranked
unranked, unranked
23,23
unranked, unranked
19, 23
16,16
25, 23
17, 17
15, 14
unranked, unranked
20, 20

A few interesting notes:

The two voters who didn't submit ballots in week 9 had Bethel ranked 25 and unranked in week 10. This contributed to their drop.

Three voters gave Bethel a significant drop 4 spots, 6 spots, and 7 spots (probably a ballot adjustment after reassessing their full body of work).

One voter gave them a slight drop from 18 to 19.  This might be the result of a reassessment of McMurry, who the voter put from unranked in week 9 to #18 in week 10. 

Four voters kept them in the same spot.

Four voters gave them a BETTER ranking in week 10 than week nine. 

Three voters didn't have them ranked either week.

[Ron Boerger]

Trinity has just shot up the rankings, which does surprise me.  That's the only team currently ranked ahead of IWU that I'd have an issue with, considering the SCAC's lack of recent playoff success (and that's NOT because they play UMHB in the first round every year, a myth that I debunked on the SCAC boards a few weeks ago).  Nonetheless, Trinity plays their undefeated conference compatriot Centre this week, and if they win, I think it would be safe to say that they've earned their ranking.

Because an 8-0 record, a defense ranked 11th overall and the fourth-ranked scoring defense isn't much of a reason, even after facing teams like Birmingham-Southern and Huntingdon which were averaging 450-500 yards per game and putting boatloads of points on the board.      I think Centre is extremely underrated by this panel and the greater d3football.com poll, and whichever team wins on Saturday should be in the top 20 (lower half). 

BTW the last 3 Trinity playoff losses were to UMHB; it's just been a while since they were in the playoffs ('04, '05, '07).   And Pat seems to think that, should they win out, there's a very good chance they'll go again there this year.