D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[02 Warhawk]

Some argue or imply that that is what you do. Rank teams ahead of teams they beat, the hell with the other data points.

Who has argued that?  Please, quote a specific instance of someone in this thread saying that.

There's a strong implication in some of the comments above through the entire thread where those who take a more nuanced view of a H2H result may be called out. I went extreme with Kenyon / Wittenberg, but the St. Thomas / St. John's game is probably a better example where since it's a rivalry game, and St. John's has a loss as well, where the H2H between the two may NOT be as black and white as some would think. On that given day St. Thomas lost. Who is the better team, though? The loss to C-M by St. John's still lingers. IF C-M beats St. Thomas, then all in the MIAC is aligned.

Nuance is good! I'm all for nuance. More nuance, please.

But it truly is dumb to rank teams according to how you expect other people to rank them or because this is how polls my whole life have reflected similar results or because so-and-so plays so-and-so in week 8 and will surely lose. These are dumb ways to qualify teams in relation to each other. Dumb especially when you're arguing against a result on the field that has little additional data to mitigate the clearest of who-would-win-between-so-and-so answers: the scoreboard.

We'll be looking forward to your poll next week.

No, dude. There's no way I know enough about the 50 or so teams in consideration to order them in any kind of respectable way. And you don't either, along with everyone else. It's an impossible, frivolous task at all levels and everywhere. It's all silly. You're just--on top of all that--doing it poorly.

You're right, it's not easy. It's just a weekly thing us fans do for fun.

There's no clear cut right or wrong.....It's not life or death....So relax a bit, OK? 

[smedindy]

C-M isn't exactly a bad loss. They are 4-0, 2-0. Will they beat St. Thomas? I don't know, but it's not like St. Johns lost to a hopeless team. Why is this mitigating before the St. Thomas - CM Game? Wouldn't you take both games at face value right now and rank C-M over St. Johns over St. Thomas?  If any one of them loses again before the C-M / St. Thomas game you could re-evaluate then, but right now why mess up what seems a series of credible results on the field? Is there a reason to believe St. Thomas is significantly better than C-M?

Exactly.  Same rationale I've been trying to use for UWSP > NCC > UWP.

If another result actually contradicts this order, adjust the rankings when that happens.  Not in anticipation that it will happen.

The rivalry game factor is part of the equation. There's a lot of antipathy between the teams and that can affect play one way or another. If it was just a *normal* game, I would weigh this H2H a lot more, but you all missed the rivalry game part of my comment.

THAT is the nuance.

The reason why this doesn't matter is that it never won't be a rivalry game. Maybe it changes how you qualify one of the teams against the other non-rivalry-opponents in the poll, but it doesn't make sense to dismiss the information about the two teams who played each other.

I think it does matter, a bit. Crap happens in rivalry games with teams that are somewhat in the same league, talent wise. Last year the Johnnies beat the Tommies as well, but St. Thomas was still a better team, overall.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wow, can't believe the board today.  I started pretty early and was already four pages behind!

I haven't joined in because I see merit in both sides.  I lean toward the H-T-H trumps all else (in the absence of other relevant evidence), but since I had NCC higher than UWSP on my ballot, couldn't really say anything.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I lean toward the H-T-H trumps all else (in the absence of other relevant evidence)

Says the guy with 2-1 Illinois Wesleyan ranked and a 3-0 team that beat IWU still awaiting their first vote.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I lean toward the H-T-H trumps all else (in the absence of other relevant evidence)

Says the guy with 2-1 Illinois Wesleyan ranked and a 3-0 team that beat IWU still awaiting their first vote.

Yep.  This early in the season, I still give some credence to well-reasoned expectations as well.  I said 'I lean' to H-T-H, not I bow down to HTH.

At this point, I still strongly suspect NCC is better than UWSP and IWU is better than Simpson.  I can provide NO evidence to back that up, but it is my OPINION.

[02 Warhawk]

I lean toward the H-T-H trumps all else (in the absence of other relevant evidence)

Says the guy with 2-1 Illinois Wesleyan ranked and a 3-0 team that beat IWU still awaiting their first vote.

Yep.  This early in the season, I still give some credence to well-reasoned expectations as well.  I said 'I lean' to H-T-H, not I bow down to HTH.

At this point, I still strongly suspect NCC is better than UWSP and IWU is better than Simpson.  I can provide NO evidence to back that up, but it is my OPINION.

Tread lightly Mr. Y.  . 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I lean toward the H-T-H trumps all else (in the absence of other relevant evidence)

Says the guy with 2-1 Illinois Wesleyan ranked and a 3-0 team that beat IWU still awaiting their first vote.

At this point, I still strongly suspect NCC is better than UWSP and IWU is better than Simpson.  I can provide NO evidence to back that up, but it is my OPINION.

Here's my question, then:

If you "suspect" that is true but cannot "provide evidence" - your own words - why not set your current rankings to reflect the current evidence, knowing that if your suspicions are correct, eventually IWU's cumulative season of winning will allow them to surpass Simpson?

Keeping them ahead now just seems like a subconscious justification for keeping them ahead down the line. Suppose both teams win out from here on; would you still have IWU ahead of Simpson (using some nonsense rationale like "they played a tougher schedule" as justification for dismissing H2H)? What if IWU has a "nice" CCIW season and goes 8-2 while Simpson finishes 9-1 with a close loss to Wartburg?

*Editing to add a comment:

If any voter still "strongly suspects" that NCC is better than UWSP, then UWSP will eventually lose to UWP, NCC will keep winning, and the UWP>UWSP result combined with NCC>UWP will give you ammo that trumps the h2h result of UWSP>NCC.  But, IMO, you shouldn't be ranking those teams in anticipation of that result happening in a few weeks.  Make that move when it actually happens.

[D3MAFAN]

I lean toward the H-T-H trumps all else (in the absence of other relevant evidence)

Says the guy with 2-1 Illinois Wesleyan ranked and a 3-0 team that beat IWU still awaiting their first vote.

At this point, I still strongly suspect NCC is better than UWSP and IWU is better than Simpson.  I can provide NO evidence to back that up, but it is my OPINION.

Here's my question, then:

If you "suspect" that is true but cannot "provide evidence" - your own words - why not set your current rankings to reflect the current evidence, knowing that if your suspicions are correct, eventually IWU's cumulative season of winning will allow them to surpass Simpson?

Keeping them ahead now just seems like a subconscious justification for keeping them ahead down the line. Suppose both teams win out from here on; would you still have IWU ahead of Simpson (using some nonsense rationale like "they played a tougher schedule" as justification for dismissing H2H)? What if IWU has a "nice" CCIW season and goes 8-2 while Simpson finishes 9-1 with a close loss to Wartburg?

Holding everything else true with Warburg, they will be in the playoffs, which I thought they were going to do last year.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Double-posting this here from NRFP since there is a parallel discussion...

I think digging into this stuff is informative because we learn how differently everyone's thought process works when ranking teams.  Seeing the range of opinions - not just the rankings, but the "why?" that comes out of discussions like this - is informative because playoff selection committees are also made up of people, with opinions and preconceived notions just like the people here, and those things will undeniably influence their decisions come playoff time, selection criteria be damned.

It's a plausible scenario that Simpson and IWU could end up on the board at the same time in Pool C playoff selection.  Let's pretend that Simpson goes 9-1 with a loss to Wartburg, and IWU goes 8-2 with losses to North Central and Simpson.  Suppose that we're down to the final Pool C slot and those two teams are on the board.  It's hard to imagine someone picking the 8-2 team with a h2h loss over a 9-1 team, but if someone here can formulate some mind-boggling explanation for why IWU should still be ranked ahead of Simpson, even if it's as dumb as "IWU beat Wheaton and we think Wheaton is better than Simpson, so we're going to assume IWU is better than Simpson even though Simpson actually played IWU and beat them" - undoubtedly someone on the committee could come to the same conclusion.

Or, suppose that NCC and UWSP/UWP are both on the board.  It's 8-2 NCC (with a loss to undefeated Wheaton and 8-2 UWSP) against 8-2 UWSP (with losses to undefeated UWW and 8-2 UWP).  Will they ignore the h2h result?  Will they acknowledge it, but say NCC beat UWP who beat UWSP, so the common-opponent outweighs the actual game between the two?  What if it's 8-2 NCC against 9-1 UWP (with a loss to UWW and a win over UWSP)?  Does NCC's h2h win over UWP outweigh the fact that they have two losses, one of which came against a common opponent that UWP beat?  That one is a lot more complicated, and there I can see a rational argument on both sides.

[D3MAFAN]

My flight was once again cancelled and delayed 24hrs and I will not be arriving until late afternoon back in the U.S.  , therefore, I will miss a good amount of the games this week. Hope to get some good analysis from you guys.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

2014 WEEK 5 TOP 25 FAN POLL

  1)   UW-Whitewater (10)   250     1
T2)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   234    T2
T2)   Mount Union          234    T2
  4)   Wesley               217     4
  5)   Linfield             214     5
  6)   Wartburg             191     8
  7)   John Carroll         184     7
  8)   Wabash               175     9
  9)   Hobart               165    10
10)   Johns Hopkins        154    11
11)   Bethel               141    14
12)   North Central        138    13
T13)   St John Fisher       110     6
T13)   UW Platteville       110    15
T13)   Wittenberg           110    16
16)   UW-Stevens Point      84   T18
17)   Wheaton               78    17
18)   Ithaca                75    20
19)   Pacific Lutheran      59    12
20)   Widener               56    23
21)   St Thomas             50    22
22)   Lycoming              45    25
23)   Wash & Jeff           34    NR
24)   St John's             32    NR
25)   Hampden-Sydney        31    24

Dropped Out: Concordia-Moorhead and Thomas More

Also Receiving Votes: Heidelberg (19), Concordia-Moorhead (16), Chapman (11), Texas Lutheran (11), Willamette (4), Centre (3), Delaware Valley (2), Gustavus Adolphus (2), Emory & Henry (1)

Voters: 02 Warhawk, D3MAFAN-MG, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, smedindy, thewaterboy, and Upstate

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   UW-Whitewater        250      ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1)
T2)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   234      ( 2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4)
T2)   Mount Union          234      ( 2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4)
  4)   Wesley               217      ( 3,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  5,  5,  5,  5)
  5)   Linfield             214      ( 3,  4,  4,  4,  5,  5,  5,  5,  5,  6)
  6)   Wartburg             191      ( 5,  6,  6,  7,  7,  7,  7,  7,  8,  9)
  7)   John Carroll         184      ( 6,  6,  6,  6,  7,  8,  8,  9,  9, 11)
  8)   Wabash               175      ( 6,  6,  7,  7,  8,  9,  9, 10, 10, 13)
  9)   Hobart               165      ( 6,  8,  8,  8,  9,  9, 10, 11, 12, 14)
10)   Johns Hopkins        154      ( 7,  7,  8,  9, 10, 11, 11, 13, 13, 17)
11)   Bethel               141      ( 9, 10, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 15)
12)   North Central        138      ( 9, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 13, 14, 14, 15)
T13)   St John Fisher       110      (12, 12, 13, 15, 15, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17)
T13)   UW Platteville       110      ( 8, 11, 14, 14, 15, 15, 16, 17, 17, 23)
T13)   Wittenberg           110      ( 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 15, --, --)
16)   UW-Stevens Point      84      (12, 14, 14, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, 22, --)
17)   Wheaton               78      (10, 13, 16, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 23, --)
18)   Ithaca                75      (13, 13, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 24, 24)
19)   Pacific Lutheran      59      (10, 14, 18, 18, 18, 22, 23, --, --, --)
20)   Widener               56      (16, 18, 18, 18, 20, 22, 22, 23, 23, 24)
21)   St Thomas             50      (10, 17, 20, 20, 22, 22, 23, 24, --, --)
22)   Lycoming              45      (17, 19, 20, 20, 20, 21, 23, 25, 25, 25)
23)   Wash & Jeff           34      (18, 21, 21, 22, 22, 24, 24, 24, 24, --)
24)   St John's             32      (19, 20, 20, 21, 21, 23, --, --, --, --)
25)   Hampden-Sydney        31      (15, 19, 20, 21, 25, 25, --, --, --, --)

26)   Heidelberg            19      (16, 21, 22)
27)   Concordia-Moorhead    16      (17, 23, 24, 25, 25)
T28)   Chapman               11      (21, 21, 25)
T28)   Texas Lutheran        11      (16, 25)
30)   Willamette             4      (22)
31)   Centre                 3      (23)
T32)   Delaware Valley        2      (24)
T32)   Gustavus Adolphus      2      (24)
34)   Emory & Henry          1      (25)

[02 Warhawk]

Wittenberg is a tough team to grasp. Ranked as high as 8th in someone's poll...and not even ranked by two pollsters.

[D3MAFAN]

Not trying to bash Pacific Lutheran, but after this past weekend performance against Linfield, wouldn't Chapman be ranked on on at least everyone's ballot. I was really high on the Lutes after their game in Texas, but was very disappointed in the score differential this past weekend. Also, someone has the Tommies at 10

[02 Warhawk]

Not trying to bash Pacific Lutheran, but after this past weekend performance against Linfield, wouldn't Chapman be ranked on on at least everyone's ballot. I was really high on the Lutes after their game in Texas, but was very disappointed in the score differential this past weekend. Also, someone has the Tommies at 10

IMO, Chapman losing a close game to Linfield isn't enough to put them in the top 25....along with two wins against average teams (no offense to Whitworth and CMS). I think there's so many more deserving top 25 teams than Chapman.

As for the Tommies in the top 10...I have no answer for that.