D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[smedindy]

I made one changed and again, the Top 25 emulated my ballot (not in the right places but the right teams). This isn't on purpose since I send my ballot in before the Top 25 is posted.

[02 Warhawk]

I made one changed and again, the Top 25 emulated my ballot (not in the right places but the right teams). This isn't on purpose since I send my ballot in before the Top 25 is posted.

Same here. I submitted my ballot before the Top 25 was released, and I found it consisted of the same teams (just different order).

[bleedpurple]

I made one changed and again, the Top 25 emulated my ballot (not in the right places but the right teams). This isn't on purpose since I send my ballot in before the Top 25 is posted.

Same here. I submitted my ballot before the Top 25 was released, and I found it consisted of the same teams (just different order).

Since you guys are used to "thinking nationally", I'd like to throw out a question to you.   

I guess I would throw this out to anyone. Once you get past the top 5, who seem to be there every year, is there even a consistent "next level"? Bethel seems to be there. NCC has felt like a solid 4th thru 6th depending on the year. Some have felt recently they make it a "Top 6".  So they might be the "Next Level" now. Bethel and NCC. Are there others that have been there enough in recent history to consider them a part of the "Next Level"? I guess the criteria I am thinking of is a team that is deservedly ranked 6-10 somewhat consistently over the years.

[02 Warhawk]

I made one changed and again, the Top 25 emulated my ballot (not in the right places but the right teams). This isn't on purpose since I send my ballot in before the Top 25 is posted.

Same here. I submitted my ballot before the Top 25 was released, and I found it consisted of the same teams (just different order).

Since you guys are used to "thinking nationally", I'd like to throw out a question to you.   

I guess I would throw this out to anyone. Once you get past the top 5, who seem to be there every year, is there even a consistent "next level"? Bethel seems to be there. NCC has felt like a solid 4th thru 6th depending on the year. Some have felt recently they make it a "Top 6".  So they might be the "Next Level" now. Bethel and NCC. Are there others that have been there enough in recent history to consider them a part of the "Next Level"? I guess the criteria I am thinking of is a team that is deservedly ranked 6-10 somewhat consistently over the years.

Tier 1:
UWW
UMU
MHB
Welsey
Linfield

Tier 2:
NCC - could almost be considered Tier 1, if it wasn't for this year.
Top MIAC school - depending on the year. St. John's had their run, then St. Thomas, now it seems Bethel is the king of the MIAC.
Wabash - quietly a consistent top 10 team.

Outside Wabash, it may be a stretch for some schools. Hobart can be considered, Thomas More maybe....

**Edit**
You can almost make the argument:

Tier 1:
UWW
UMU

Tier 2:
MHB
Welsey
Linfield

Tier 3...etc...

[smedindy]

I'd say that the 'next level' may be more conference related at times since.

CCIW Winner - Wheaton or North Central
NCAC Winner - Wabash or Wittenberg
MIAC Winner
MAC Winner - Widener, Del Val, maybe Lycoming if they rise up
OAC Runner - Up
WIAC Runner - Up
E8 Winner

Then Hobart, Johns Hopkins (their conferences aren't deep) - that's the second tier. Many times these teams will run into a Purple and get derailed in the quarterfinals or Round of 16 but they're still second tier.

The ODAC beat up on each other too much for consistent ranking. Franklin's taken a step back or they could have been on the cusp.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Long but relevant post of mine on this topic earlier this season...obviously we know more about 2014 now (so St. Thomas and North Central might be dinged a little lower than I have them ranked here, etc), but I think some of the stats I dug up re: who made the final 8 and final 4 over the last 4-5 seasons help make the case for the respective tiers.  I am comfortable with UMU/UWW as Tier 1, UMHB as Tier 1.5, Wesley/Linfield as Tier 2, and then some assortment of Bethel, St. Thomas, North Central, St. John Fisher, Hobart, Wabash, Wheaton, and Wartburg (this list could go on) depending on how this postseason shakes out.  I think it's important to consider these tiers as more of a "program over the last five seasons" thing than a snap of who the best team is TODAY - i.e. Wartburg is probably better than St. Thomas right now, but UST's last five seasons kick the crap out of Wartburg's last five seasons overall, so it's not just a cut-and-dry Top 25 for the 2014 season.

Tier 1: UMU, UWW, UMHB*

UMU and UWW require no explanation. 

UMHB is interesting because they haven't actually beaten either of UWW or UMU recently (since 2004, anyway) and you could argue they should be a notch below...but given that their past 2 semifinal games have been 1) led UMU in the fourth quarter in 2012 and 2) lost by a point to UWW in 2013 (when that UWW team annihilated Mount in the Stagg), I'm comfortable putting them here, especially once we start looking at the Tier 2 candidates.  You'll see their name pop up on some fun lists.

Tier 2: Linfield, Wesley, NCC

Linfield has been eliminated by a host of different postseason opponents (I was a little surprised to see how many different teams have knocked them out of the playoffs; it's not always one of those Tier 1 teams).  If they were only losing to UWW and UMHB, that'd be a little different.  But St. Thomas, Wesley, and UW-Oshkosh have all eliminated Linfield in recent playoff seasons...and yet, Linfield is one of only four teams to make the final eight in both 2012 and 2013 (Mount, UMHB, and Wesley being the others).  Gotta be here.

Wesley has had a very high ceiling but also seems to have a low floor; they're capable of raising their game to give Mount or UMHB a scare, but they can lose to Rowan (2013) or Kean (2011) in years when neither of those teams ran the table in the NJAC (which raises an interesting point of its own: is Wesley going to miss the playoffs once in a while in the NJAC?).  But if I try to talk myself out of them...extending the point above about Linfield: here's the list of teams that have been in the final eight for each of the last four seasons: Mount Union, UMHB, and Wesley.  Gotta be here.

NCC, like Wesley, has dropped a regular-season game here and there (UW-LaCrosse to open 2012 season, Redlands to open 2011 regular season) but still was in the semifinals last year (losing by a point vs. Mount) and has been in the elite eight twice in the last four years.

The other teams who might have an argument about their exclusion from this tier:

St. Thomas almost definitely should be, but some recency bias (UST going 8-2 last year with a two-point loss to St. John's costing them a potential Pool C berth) has made us forget that UST was in the Stagg in 2012, semifinals in 2011, final 8 in 2010, final 8 in 2009.  Probably a mistake to omit them from the original list when you look at that four year stretch of postseason that no one save Mount, UWW, and UMHB can really match.

Bethel (also on that very short list of teams that have made the elite eight twice in the last four years) beat UST last year and is a program with plenty of postseason history to its credit.

St. John Fisher also has two final-8 appearances in the last four years...but both came in seasons where they lost two regular-season games, and they missed the playoffs in the other two seasons.  Linfield, Wesley, and NCC all have made each of the last four years, and UST's miss last year is countered by their superior body of work from 2009-2012 (which is better than anything the rest of Tier 2 offers, really).  It can be argued that the Empire 8's difficulty is a factor here that some of the other Tier 1 and Tier 2 teams do not have to contend with, but I think UMU and UWW are so superior that doesn't really matter because they'd still win the E8. 

I happen to agree with jknezek that I group the teams into tiers based on multiple seasons' worth of work, not just where they are in one season (i.e. I think St. Thomas belongs in this discussion of the top ten or so "programs" in the nation even if they weren't one of the 10 best teams last year, same with UWW in 2012, etc).  If you look at other teams floating around the 6-15 spots of the current poll, none can really be argued as belonging in "Tier 2" because they haven't been at that level long enough or consistently enough.   UW-Platteville's playoff win last year was their first in this site's timeline.  Wartburg's playoff win last year was their first since 2008.

To recap:

Tier 1: UMU, UWW, UMHB
Tier 2: Linfield, Wesley, NCC, St. Thomas
Tier 3: Bethel, St. John Fisher, Hobart...a few others, no doubt, not listing them all here because it's hard to say exactly where we draw the line (you can make a case for teams like Wabash, Wheaton, and several others, and then of course UWP, Wartburg, and a few other teams "on the rise" could nose their way into this discussion with 1-2 more good years)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

2014 WEEK 8 TOP 25 FAN POLL

Rank         Team                     Points    Prev
  1)   UW-Whitewater (10)    250     1
T2)   Mary Hardin-Baylor    234    T2
T2)   Mount Union           234    T2
  4)   Wesley                219     4
  5)   Linfield              211     5
  6)   Wartburg              197     6
  7)   John Carroll          185     7
  8)   Wabash                179     8
  9)   Hobart                166     9
10)   Johns Hopkins         153    10
11)   Bethel                148    11
12)   St John Fisher        132    14
13)   Wheaton               120    16
14)   UW Platteville        116    13
15)   Wittenberg            115    15
16)   Widener                83    17
17)   Wash & Jeff            79    18
18)   UW-Stevens Point       72    21
19)   St John's              69    19
20)   Concordia-Moorhead     63    20
21)   Delaware Valley        59   T23
22)   Hampden-Sydney         50   T23
23)   North Central          45    12
24)   Chapman                27    25
25)   Centre                 13    NR

Dropped Out: St Thomas

Also Receiving Votes: Heidelberg (10), Pacific Lutheran (7), St Thomas (5), Carroll (3), Thomas More (3), Muhlenberg (2), Montclair St (1)

Voters: 02 Warhawk, D3MAFAN-MG, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, smedindy, thewaterboy, and Upstate

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   UW-Whitewater        250      ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1)
T2)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   234      ( 2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4)
T2)   Mount Union          234      ( 2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4)
  4)   Wesley               219      ( 3,  3,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  5,  5,  5)
  5)   Linfield             211      ( 4,  4,  4,  5,  5,  5,  5,  5,  6,  6)
  6)   Wartburg             197      ( 5,  5,  6,  6,  6,  6,  7,  7,  7,  8)
  7)   John Carroll         185      ( 6,  6,  7,  7,  7,  8,  8,  8,  9,  9)
  8)   Wabash               179      ( 6,  6,  7,  7,  8,  9,  9,  9, 10, 10)
  9)   Hobart               166      ( 7,  7,  8,  8,  9,  9,  9, 10, 13, 14)
10)   Johns Hopkins        153      ( 8,  8,  9, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 12, 17)
11)   Bethel               148      ( 8, 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13)
12)   St John Fisher       132      (11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 15, 15)
13)   Wheaton              120      ( 9, 10, 11, 14, 14, 15, 15, 16, 16, 20)
14)   UW Platteville       116      (11, 12, 12, 13, 14, 14, 15, 15, 17, 21)
15)   Wittenberg           115      (10, 10, 11, 13, 14, 14, 15, 16, 19, 23)
16)   Widener               83      (11, 15, 16, 16, 16, 19, 19, 20, 22, 23)
17)   Wash & Jeff           79      (14, 15, 16, 17, 17, 18, 18, 19, 21, --)
18)   UW-Stevens Point      72      (13, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 20, 20, 21, --)
19)   St John's             69      (16, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 20, 22, --)
20)   Concordia-Moorhead    63      (17, 17, 17, 19, 20, 21, 21, 21, 21, 23)
21)   Delaware Valley       59      (14, 18, 19, 19, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25)
22)   Hampden-Sydney        50      (14, 17, 18, 19, 22, 22, 22, 24, --, --)
23)   North Central         45      (13, 17, 20, 21, 22, 23, 23, 25, 25, --)
24)   Chapman               27      (20, 22, 22, 23, 23, 23, 24, 25, 25, --)
25)   Centre                13      (22, 23, 24, 24, 25, 25, --, --, --, --)

26)   Heidelberg            10      (16)
27)   Pacific Lutheran       7      (21, 24)
28)   St Thomas              5      (24, 24, 25)
T29)   Carroll                3      (24, 25)
T29)   Thomas More            3      (23)
31)   Muhlenberg             2      (24)
32)   Montclair St           1      (25)

[wally_wabash]

It blows me away that one voter thinks Heidelberg is the 16th best team in D3.  They aren't.  They'd fold like a freshly laundered shirt against any team in the top 25. 

[hazzben]

It blows me away that one voter thinks Heidelberg is the 16th best team in D3.  They aren't.  They'd fold like a freshly laundered shirt against any team in the top 25.

It blows me away that SJU is ahead of Concordia, and that someone has SJU outside their Top 25.

Then again, maybe the guy who has Heidelberg at 16 forgot to rank SJU 

Seriously though, thanks for doing this each week guys. Wish I had the time to do it this year.

[Mr. Ypsi]

It blows me away that one voter thinks Heidelberg is the 16th best team in D3.  They aren't.  They'd fold like a freshly laundered shirt against any team in the top 25.

It blows me away that SJU is ahead of Concordia, and that someone has SJU outside their Top 25.

Then again, maybe the guy who has Heidelberg at 16 forgot to rank SJU 

Seriously though, thanks for doing this each week guys. Wish I had the time to do it this year.

Nope.  I'm the guy with Heidi at #16; I had SJU at #18.

I don't know if Heidi is worthy of #16, but they are DESTROYING everyone who isn't JCU or UMU.

[USee]

It blows me away that one voter thinks Heidelberg is the 16th best team in D3.  They aren't.  They'd fold like a freshly laundered shirt against any team in the top 25.

It blows me away that SJU is ahead of Concordia, and that someone has SJU outside their Top 25.

Then again, maybe the guy who has Heidelberg at 16 forgot to rank SJU 

Seriously though, thanks for doing this each week guys. Wish I had the time to do it this year.

Nope.  I'm the guy with Heidi at #16; I had SJU at #18.

I don't know if Heidi is worthy of #16, but they are DESTROYING everyone who isn't JCU or UMU.

And getting DESTROYED by everyone who IS. That's the point.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Yeah, but there are a lot of teams in the top 25 who would be destroyed by UMU and JCU.

[hazzben]

Yeah, but there are a lot of teams in the top 25 who would be destroyed by UMU and JCU.

UMU, yes. JCU...well, that didn't play out last year in the playoffs.

[smedindy]

2014 JCU > 2013 JCU