D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[smedindy]

WOW, D3 football.com has TLU at what would be 26th. AFCA has them at 20th and they do not get a single vote in the top 36 of the Top 25 fan Poll.

Well, they didn't get a single Top 25 vote. I'm sure many of us would have had them in the top 30. I always have them hovering around...

I gave a lot of love to Oshkosh, after a reboot, and I still have Muhlenberg in my Top 25.

[02 Warhawk]

WOW, D3 football.com has TLU at what would be 26th. AFCA has them at 20th and they do not get a single vote in the top 36 of the Top 25 fan Poll.

They got destroyed by the only good team they've played. Heidelberg is in the same category for me...huge losses to JCU and UMU but with no wins impressing me.

[Tekken]

WOW, D3 football.com has TLU at what would be 26th. AFCA has them at 20th and they do not get a single vote in the top 36 of the Top 25 fan Poll.

This baffles me as well.  Somebody is obviously wrong, whether it be the pollsters or the fan poll.  That discrepancy is too large.  Or, I guess it could theoretically be that all of the fan poll members have them ranked 26th as well, garnering them 0 counting points. 

It becomes even more interesting when you look at the first week's regional rankings from the south.  The fans poll very cleanly follows the top 4 (UMHB, Wesley, John Hopkins, W&J), then the large TLU discrepancy (tied 5th in regional rankings along with Centre), followed by another clean comparison to the regional rankings with 5 - 7 (Centre, Muhlenburg, Thomas More) all receiving multiple fan votes.

I wonder exactly where the differing interpretation is on the data/results that makes these gaps so wide?

[ExTartanPlayer]

hey FCG, 

Is it the same ballot  That has uww at 2, and Mtu at 4, and Heidi at 14 by any chance?     care to  (spline)  lucy?

I doubt that's all the same ballot.  The person voting Heidelberg at 14 (I know who it is from a prior conversation) is going to be someone that thinks the OAC's top two are light-years ahead of the rest of the country.

I'm a firm believer that the polls should represent the opinions of the individual voters themselves - i.e. I respect that someone sticks for what they believe without voting because of how they think others will vote in the poll.  With that said, I still think Heidelberg at #14 is a loony vote.  I can excuse a blowout loss to one of the nation's ruling class (Mount, UWW, UMHB, Wesley), but...well, John Carroll's ranking may or may not be legitimate; I think JCU is a very good team that might be one of the nation's top 10, but I also think they're being over-ranked because they've been crushing everyone in an unusually bad OAC (remember, they did this last year, and then they lost at home against a two-loss Pool C team in the first round of the playoffs).  We don't know for sure that JCU is a top-10 team nationally just yet, and Heidelberg got curb-stomped by them, too, not just by Mount.

[desertcat1]

must be the buckeye boys ? maybe?   

Is this thing a secret ballot?  you can post mine,  i would like to see the others ... 

[Tekken]

They got destroyed by the only good team they've played.

I can excuse a blowout loss to one of the nation's ruling class (Mount, UWW, UMHB, Wesley)

Shows just how nuanced and fickle this situation is.

[ExTartanPlayer]

WOW, D3 football.com has TLU at what would be 26th. AFCA has them at 20th and they do not get a single vote in the top 36 of the Top 25 fan Poll.

They got destroyed by the only good team they've played. Heidelberg is in the same category for me...huge losses to JCU and UMU but with no wins impressing me.

This.  It's one thing to get blown out by a good team, but they gave up 72 points at home and if you look at their wins, they give up a crapload of points in all of them.  This isn't some team that has eight blowout wins and one bad loss; they beat 3-6 Trinity by seven, 4-5 ETBU by six, and they've given up a lot of points in almost every game, against opponents of varying quality.  Their only impressive win came in week 2 against Hardin-Simmons.  Where's the evidence they can stop anyone with a decent offense? 

I think a lot of people get a little too defensive about their own teams when lobbying for Top 25 votes, which is understandable.  Everyone wants to think that their team is the fringe-second-level-powerhouse.  But if you got totally blown out by the best team you played, you'd better have a few positive scalps to earn a spot here.  Either a string of blowout wins against lesser opposition, or at least one or two high-quality wins to show you can step up against someone that can hit back. 

It's hard to get into the top 25 with so many teams, which is what I think people don't always get.  A lack of top 25 votes doesn't mean that your team gets zero respect.  The top 25 are the top 10% of teams in Division III. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

They got destroyed by the only good team they've played.

I can excuse a blowout loss to one of the nation's ruling class (Mount, UWW, UMHB, Wesley)

Shows just how nuanced and fickle this situation is.

Indeed.  There are blowout losses, and then there is what TLU did against UMHB.

Berg was down 23-7 at half against JCU and 27-10 against Mount.  The final scores (43-16 and 58-17) were blowouts, but they traded a punch or two.

TLU was down 45-6 by halftime. 

I hate parsing apart the levels of blowout just by margin of victory, but it's pretty obvious which of those games was more competitive.

[desertcat1]

hey FCG, 

Is it the same ballot  That has uww at 2, and Mtu at 4, and Heidi at 14 by any chance?     care to  (spline)  lucy?

I doubt that's all the same ballot.  The person voting Heidelberg at 14 (I know who it is from a prior conversation) is going to be someone that thinks the OAC's top two are light-years ahead of the rest of the country.

I'm a firm believer that the polls should represent the opinions of the individual voters themselves - i.e. I respect that someone sticks for what they believe without voting because of how they think others will vote in the poll. With that said, I still think Heidelberg at #14 is a loony vote.  I can excuse a blowout loss to one of the nation's ruling class (Mount, UWW, UMHB, Wesley), but...well, John Carroll's ranking may or may not be legitimate; I think JCU is a very good team that might be one of the nation's top 10, but I also think they're being over-ranked because they've been crushing everyone in an unusually bad OAC (remember, they did this last year, and then they lost at home against a two-loss Pool C team in the first round of the playoffs).  We don't know for sure that JCU is a top-10 team nationally just yet, and Heidelberg got curb-stomped by them, too, not just by Mount.

I agree but , being the ONLY one who thinks that put them way out in left field sometime  smoking with willie. .  been there done that.

[desertcat1]

WOW, D3 football.com has TLU at what would be 26th. AFCA has them at 20th and they do not get a single vote in the top 36 of the Top 25 fan Poll.

They got destroyed by the only good team they've played. Heidelberg is in the same category for me...huge losses to JCU and UMU but with no wins impressing me.

This.  It's one thing to get blown out by a good team, but they gave up 72 points at home and if you look at their wins, they give up a crapload of points in all of them.  This isn't some team that has eight blowout wins and one bad loss; they beat 3-6 Trinity by seven, 4-5 ETBU by six, and they've given up a lot of points in almost every game, against opponents of varying quality.  Their only impressive win came in week 2 against Hardin-Simmons.  Where's the evidence they can stop anyone with a decent offense? 

I think a lot of people get a little too defensive about their own teams when lobbying for Top 25 votes, which is understandable.  Everyone wants to think that their team is the fringe-second-level-powerhouse.  But if you got totally blown out by the best team you played, you'd better have a few positive scalps to earn a spot here.  Either a string of blowout wins against lesser opposition, or at least one or two high-quality wins to show you can step up against someone that can hit back. 

It's hard to get into the top 25 with so many teams, which is what I think people don't always get.  A lack of top 25 votes doesn't mean that your team gets zero respect.  The top 25 are the top 10% of teams in Division III.

[/b]


again i agree ..   With all the evidence you have listed..  good work ..
I   Was thinking  he/she would want to justify the action that's all.  But i understand in this matter  they can't ... (Just  a homer )

[wcrosby]

Wow, tough crowd.  Take the new guy.  Who cares if it's 11.

Consistency cares. An MIT grad would know about making sure measurable data is observed in a consistent manner.  But we welcome him for next year for sure!

I respect your opinion.  Plus, I haven't watched enough of the midwest teams yet.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

must be the buckeye boys ? maybe?   

Is this thing a secret ballot?  you can post mine,  i would like to see the others ... 

I do my best not to reveal how anyone voted, but individuals are free to reveal their ballots if they choose.

The votes that stand out the most to me are
1) Heidelberg... which has already been discussed
2) Pac Lutheran... I'd like to hear the explanation from that voter about that one in comparison to the other west coast teams like Chapman and Pacific.
3) UW-Platteville off of a ballot

There were 2 voters who had the same 25 teams as the final poll. Usually ballots average 2 or 3 in the ORV.

[D3AlumniParent]

They got destroyed by the only good team they've played.

I can excuse a blowout loss to one of the nation's ruling class (Mount, UWW, UMHB, Wesley)

Shows just how nuanced and fickle this situation is.

To be honest, I don't think there's much nuance or fickleness at all. There is general consistency with how TLU is ranked everywhere except the Regional Advisory Committee. And why might the committee's general opinion of TLU be a little higher than the others?

Just as any parent sees their children at their greatest potential and in the best light, so too a coach is fond of the team that he put together and leads. TLU's head coach, Danny Padron, is one of the 8 members of the RAC. As is the HC Loren Dawson of conference mate Austin, last week's opponent. See page 11 of the following:

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamps_DIII_Football_2014_Revised2.pdf

Coach Dawson is also co-chair of the RAC and is therefore one of the 8 members of the National Committee that will select the tournament teams. (pg 10)

Based on this information, the fallout will be very interesting were TLU to be included over an undefeated team, and possibly because their victories were over 4-5 & 3-6 teams rather than 2-7 & 1-8 teams (SOS).

[RLW]

My observation stirred up a lot of interest. I agree/understand that TLU has made its bed and must now sleep in it. As another observation TLU was listed as 74th in Kickoff so to be where they are now in any of the polls/rankings they have come along ways. I think the team and coaches have done very well. I thank everyone for their TLU well wishes and compliments.

[desertcat1]

must be the buckeye boys ? maybe?   

Is this thing a secret ballot?  you can post mine,  i would like to see the others ... 

I do my best not to reveal how anyone voted, but individuals are free to reveal their ballots if they choose.

The votes that stand out the most to me are
1) Heidelberg... which has already been discussed
2) Pac Lutheran... I'd like to hear the explanation from that voter about that one in comparison to the other west coast teams like Chapman and Pacific.
3) UW-Platteville off of a ballot

There were 2 voters who had the same 25 teams as the final poll. Usually ballots average 2 or 3 in the ORV.

Surprise, surprise. it's not me this time.

i made my picks at 11/09/14...  at 7:44a.m.   
uww, mt u, UMHB,wart, wesley,Jc, Hobart,J hop, Linfield, St John,Witt, wheat, widen, beth, wabash,w& J,uwp,del val,Ncc, Chapman,centre,st tom, Con More, pacific, Tom More...      have at it boys .   Although i do think PLU is a better team than the others .. inside info...