D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[smedindy]

It becomes even more interesting when you look at the first week's regional rankings from the south.  The fans poll very cleanly follows the top 4 (UMHB, Wesley, John Hopkins, W&J), then the large TLU discrepancy (tied 5th in regional rankings along with Centre), followed by another clean comparison to the regional rankings with 5 - 7 (Centre, Muhlenburg, Thomas More) all receiving multiple fan votes.

I wonder exactly where the differing interpretation is on the data/results that makes these gaps so wide?

The regional rankings at time are based on some semi-rigid criteria (regional record, D3 record, SOS). The other polls can be more liberal with their interpretations.

[smedindy]

I think JCU is a very good team that might be one of the nation's top 10, but I also think they're being over-ranked because they've been crushing everyone in an unusually bad OAC (remember, they did this last year, and then they lost at home against a two-loss Pool C team in the first round of the playoffs).  We don't know for sure that JCU is a top-10 team nationally just yet, and Heidelberg got curb-stomped by them, too, not just by Mount.

Last year is not this year. I think this year's JCU team is better, and I'll duck now in order not to restart THAT argument.

[smedindy]

Although i do think PLU is a better team than the others .. inside info...

PLU had a funny way of showing they were better, you know, by losing to Pacific and all 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think JCU is a very good team that might be one of the nation's top 10, but I also think they're being over-ranked because they've been crushing everyone in an unusually bad OAC (remember, they did this last year, and then they lost at home against a two-loss Pool C team in the first round of the playoffs).  We don't know for sure that JCU is a top-10 team nationally just yet, and Heidelberg got curb-stomped by them, too, not just by Mount.

Last year is not this year. I think this year's JCU team is better, and I'll duck now in order not to restart THAT argument.

Oh, sure, I know.  But I am saying that last year we went into the playoffs thinking JCU was all that and a bag of potato chips...and they lost at home in Round 1.  Therefore, we do not yet know that JCU is anything more than a very good #2 in the OAC.  If they'd won a couple playoff games last year, I might be willing to buy into the notion that they're a superpower that blows everyone off the field, and thus even top 25 teams can be forgiven a lopsided loss to them.

But, keeping Heidelberg ranked (14th!!!!) because they lost to two really good teams only makes much sense if we're really sure that those two teams are, like, #2 and #5 in the nation.  Are we really sure that John Carroll is #5 in the nation?  Right now they're ranked up there because most everyone else that would have been a contender for that spot has lost and JCU has remained undefeated.  The same was true last year.  Believe me, I would love to see JCU make a playoff run, but until I actually see that happen, I'll hold off on forgiving Heidelberg a blowout loss to them.

[smedindy]

If you must know, I may have anti-homered Wabash. That stretch of the ballot was tough for me.,

[smedindy]

ETP -

I'm not that 'Berg voter! I have them 8th in the North behind Franklin!

I have JCU 6th now. I think they're not as good as Wartburg but better than the other undefeated teams aside from THE power four.

[02 Warhawk]

If Mount ends up destroying JCU, then TLU will have a very similar resume to the Streaks:

1. One loss
2. Losing big to a top ranked team
3. Looking good against (at best) average competition
4. Zero wins against current top 25 teams

Not sure if I have a point, but it's interesting considering where both teams sit in the rankings. Of course that'll change if a blowout occurs in Aliance Saturday.

[smedindy]

Warhawk,

I do think that JCU's wins over Heidelberg, BW, and ONU (even Otterbein) outweigh TLU's wins over Hardin-Simmons, ETBU, and Austin (or Louisiana College). With so little common data and just one non-conference game in the OAC, it's hard to get a full picture, Massey has Heidelberg and Hardin Simmons in the same neighborhoods rankings wise.

Mind you, I don't mean to pile on TLU, I love that they're a new name making noise in the South these last two years, and I hope they keep it up!

[Mr. Ypsi]

ETP -

I'm not that 'Berg voter! I have them 8th in the North behind Franklin!

I have JCU 6th now. I think they're not as good as Wartburg but better than the other undefeated teams aside from THE power four.

I AM the #14 Heidi voter.  I agree that they have no quality wins, and two (fairly conclusive) losses, but if losing decisively to UMU and JCU is disqualifying, I fear we would have a top 12 instead of a top 25.  I put them #14 for the simple reason that I suspect (can't prove, obviously) that they would beat everyone I ranked below them.  (BTW, I have UMU and JCU as #3 and #6.)

And that is all the justification I can give for my vote.  (In the North I had Heidi 7th, Franklin 8th.)

[02 Warhawk]

ETP -

I'm not that 'Berg voter! I have them 8th in the North behind Franklin!

I have JCU 6th now. I think they're not as good as Wartburg but better than the other undefeated teams aside from THE power four.

I AM the #14 Heidi voter.  I agree that they have no quality wins, and two (fairly conclusive) losses, but if losing decisively to UMU and JCU is disqualifying, I fear we would have a top 12 instead of a top 25.  I put them #14 for the simple reason that I suspect (can't prove, obviously) that they would beat everyone I ranked below them.  (BTW, I have UMU and JCU as #3 and #6.)

And that is all the justification I can give for my vote.  (In the North I had Heidi 7th, Franklin 8th.)

So do you have the same six teams above Heidi in your top 25 poll, as you do in your North poll?

[Tekken]

I think some of you are a little defensive about your prognostications.  Please reread my post.  I stated that somebody is obviously wrong, be it the polls/regional rankings or the fan poll here.  I never even hinted at which one of those it might be.  To try and determine that, I inquired as to where the difference in interpretation might be to help explain the large disparity.  I am able to tease out some of your opinions through your defense, but I find it interesting how contradictory some of the responses are.  As I read it, the two driving points that have been made here are 1. the blowout loss to UMHB and 2. the slanted (bordering on collusive) view of the regional ranking committee.

Yet I've also read here on multiple occasions that margin of victory really is irrelevant once you get past 40 or so, especially against the "super elite".  Backups are in on both sides, yada yada yada.  I apologize, but I don't really feel like quoting the many times this has been stated.  Likewise, the regional rankings are dismissed based on subjectiveness in one breath, but their rigidity and the objectivity of strength of schedule are praised in the next breath.  If these are indeed the two reasons you hang your hat on, so be it.  That answers the question I asked, where is the difference in interpretation of the stats/results.  As I have stated earlier, the whimsical nature of these defenses in particular, just show how thin a line there is between being able to objectively differentiate teams 18 - 40.  That may come across attacking in nature, but if you could remove yourself from the parent role of your child poll, and look at the information from an objective standpoint, everything above stated is, indeed, the truth.

[smedindy]

No one is wrong. We only have ten voters right now, not the number in Pat's poll. With more voters, you're going to have more teams in consideration, possibly. The Coaches' poil has been laughable at times in the past. If you want to join next year, I'm sure there's a spot available. We need more representation from other regions. I myself am bifurcated, with my College in the North and my residence in the West (though I'm either closest to PLU, Whitworth or Puget Sound. I haven't measured...)

I think we here are all looking objectively. Don't think we're not, please. And don't call someone WRONG when we care enough to consider all 200+ teams here That's insulting.

Regional rankings ARE a different beast. They have different criteria they must take into consideration and their rankings are not congruent to any Top 25. So you can't really compare them. There have been a lot of teams that are high in regional rankings and low or not even in the Top 25. Someone with time and not piles of reports to do tomorrow could check RRs vs Top 25s and see the disconnects.

The main issue with TLU when comparing regional rankings is the region they are in. Fifth in the south is nice, but fifth in the North was Wittenberg and fifth in the West was either Chapman (around TLU's neighborhood) or St. John's, which just beat Bethel. There's no rational way to put TLU in with Witt or St. John's, really.

I think Muhlenberg is better. I think Centre is better. I think Chapman is better. I think Ithaca is better. I think SJF is better. I think Bethel is better. I think North Central is better. I don't have St. Thomas in my Top 25, but I think they're better than TLU. Not by much, mind you. These are marginal differences. I think TLU is about the 27th best team in D3. That ain't hay.

[Mr. Ypsi]

ETP -

I'm not that 'Berg voter! I have them 8th in the North behind Franklin!

I have JCU 6th now. I think they're not as good as Wartburg but better than the other undefeated teams aside from THE power four.

I AM the #14 Heidi voter.  I agree that they have no quality wins, and two (fairly conclusive) losses, but if losing decisively to UMU and JCU is disqualifying, I fear we would have a top 12 instead of a top 25.  I put them #14 for the simple reason that I suspect (can't prove, obviously) that they would beat everyone I ranked below them.  (BTW, I have UMU and JCU as #3 and #6.)

And that is all the justification I can give for my vote.  (In the North I had Heidi 7th, Franklin 8th.)

So do you have the same six teams above Heidi in your top 25 poll, as you do in your North poll?

Yes.

[smedindy]

ETP -

I'm not that 'Berg voter! I have them 8th in the North behind Franklin!

I have JCU 6th now. I think they're not as good as Wartburg but better than the other undefeated teams aside from THE power four.

I AM the #14 Heidi voter.  I agree that they have no quality wins, and two (fairly conclusive) losses, but if losing decisively to UMU and JCU is disqualifying, I fear we would have a top 12 instead of a top 25.  I put them #14 for the simple reason that I suspect (can't prove, obviously) that they would beat everyone I ranked below them.  (BTW, I have UMU and JCU as #3 and #6.)

And that is all the justification I can give for my vote.  (In the North I had Heidi 7th, Franklin 8th.)

So do you have the same six teams above Heidi in your top 25 poll, as you do in your North poll?

Yes.

I admire your consistency, albiet one that seems a bit top-heavy. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

ETP -

I'm not that 'Berg voter! I have them 8th in the North behind Franklin!

I have JCU 6th now. I think they're not as good as Wartburg but better than the other undefeated teams aside from THE power four.

I AM the #14 Heidi voter.  I agree that they have no quality wins, and two (fairly conclusive) losses, but if losing decisively to UMU and JCU is disqualifying, I fear we would have a top 12 instead of a top 25.  I put them #14 for the simple reason that I suspect (can't prove, obviously) that they would beat everyone I ranked below them.  (BTW, I have UMU and JCU as #3 and #6.)

And that is all the justification I can give for my vote.  (In the North I had Heidi 7th, Franklin 8th.)

So do you have the same six teams above Heidi in your top 25 poll, as you do in your North poll?

Yes.

I admire your consistency, albiet one that seems a bit top-heavy. 

The top six in the North were unanimously top six.