D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[smedindy]

Still doesn't mean that #6 in the North is the #13th best team, even if everyone has unanimity on those teams. It's looking at a micro-set versus the full universe

[Tekken]

One or the other is wrong, by virtue of them being different.  Unless the views aren't different (another possibility, I originally acknowledged).  Your personal ranking backs up this stance.  By the way it works, we will likely never know which diverging view is most correct.  Also, by no means take my response as belittling or insulting your efforts.  The two views of TLU's merit are indeed, mutually exclusive, so they can not both be right.  There are far too many teams and far too many comparisons between them, for anyone to be right, anyhow.  I appreciate your efforts and the time and energy that go behind them, but I genuinely was trying to rectify the difference in positions (if there is actually one), given the same set of data, to gain insight as to why the fan poll is so vastly different to the top 25 and regional rankings in this one particular area.  By contrast, they are actually very similar in regards to all the other top south teams.  I really don't have a forum to garner the other side's position.  I also understand there are only ten of you, but I lean on that striking similarity between the other 7 teams to conclude this is not a difference simply based on sample size. The responses, however, I feel were completely copout in nature; collectively speaking out of both sides of your mouth.  Talking points are preached when convenient, but dismissed when they fly in the face of your (I use this pronoun generically) given logic.

From my vantage, much of this debate comes down to philosophy.  You say you think Centre and Muhlenberg are better.  Why?  Centre has beaten two teams with a winning record, zero regionally ranked.  Their strength of schedule is decidedly lower.  Muhlenberg has beaten one team with a winning record, zero regionally ranked.  Their strength of schedule is also decidedly lower.  TLU has beaten three teams with winning record, one regionally ranked, with a decidedly higher strength of schedule.  Do Centre and Muhlenberg get the nod simply because they don't have a blowout loss to one of the four super elites?  Is their lack of schedule rewarded?  If so, so be it.  That is a concrete objective reason, open to interpretation by differing philosophies.  Or, perhaps there is another entirely different reason.  I have my own personal reasoning for where I believe TLU should stand, but it is based on objective reasoning. 

The prevailing thought to answer the original question, however, was to defensively attack with cries of homerism and/or corruption, or cherry pick a margin of victory defense when it suits your (again, generic) current opinion, but goes against everything else that has ever been used in these forums to defend margin of victory and results against the "super elites".

[D3AlumniParent]

I think some of you are a little defensive about your prognostications.  Please reread my post.  I stated that somebody is obviously wrong, be it the polls/regional rankings or the fan poll here.  I never even hinted at which one of those it might be.  To try and determine that, I inquired as to where the difference in interpretation might be to help explain the large disparity.  I am able to tease out some of your opinions through your defense, but I find it interesting how contradictory  some of the responses are.  As I read it, the two driving points that have been made here are 1. the blowout loss to UMHB and 2. the slanted (bordering on collusive) view of the regional ranking committee.

Yet I've also read here on multiple occasions that margin of victory really is irrelevant once you get past 40 or so, especially against the "super elite".  Backups are in on both sides, yada yada yada.  I apologize, but I don't really feel like quoting the many times this has been stated.  Likewise, the regional rankings are dismissed based on subjectiveness in one breath, but their rigidity and the objectivity of strength of schedule are praised in the next breath.  If these are indeed the two reasons you hang your hat on, so be it.  That answers the question I asked, where is the difference in interpretation of the stats/results.  As I have stated earlier, the whimsical nature of these defenses in particular, just show how thin a line there is between being able to objectively differentiate teams 18 - 40.  That may come across attacking in nature, but if you could remove yourself from the parent role of your child poll, and look at the information from an objective standpoint, everything above stated is, indeed, the truth.

I'd like to make sure there are no misunderstandings from my earlier post regarding the makeup of the RAC. Since that was my only post, there couldn't have been any contradictions on my part. I agree that, at some point, you must disregard extremely large margins of victory. So stop at the half- 45-6 after 2 quarters. Still not so good.

TLU's SOS is impressive. And were you comparing two teams, each with one defeat, then SOS would likely carry more weight. But that's absolutely not the case.

Besides TLU's SOS is being propped up by UMHB's 9 victories. If you remove those from the equation, a quick calculation changes the SOS to a more pedestrian .48. Not sure the committee will take it this far, but why should a team get credit for a scheduling a tough game that was lost? It's been mentioned in these forums numerous times before: "it's who you beat, not who you lose to."

I also can't rationalize a win over a RR#10 (Hardin-Simmons) who likely isn't any better than Centre-foe Rhodes (and who may not even remain at #10 after what should be a competitive game vs Louisiana College this week.) But remember, it is the RAC that provides the regional rankings that determine RR wins.    So I'm not so sure we'll be seeing Rhodes hit the list next week

So after discovering the South RAC's 8 members included a bubble team's HC, the HC from one of the other 3 teams in the conference and, incidentally, Louisiana College's HC (all 3 teams play each other), it made a lot more sense. 

Politics, like other things in life, happens. Make no mistake about it. This is Texas, you know. 

[smedindy]

First, I don't like the NCAA's SOS calculations. And regional rankings are NCAA playoff selection criteria, not Top 25 voting criteria. I don't even pay attention to those.

Muhlenberg's Massey ranking is superior to TLU's and their Massey SOS IS higher and that's an objective data set and algorithm based on MOV (which definitely has a diminishing returns, so mega blowouts are rather muted).  Muhlenberg popped on the radar when they gave Johns Hopkins a game. They probably would be higher in my eyes had they not had a close win over Susquehanna, which I think was a hangover game. Then again, JHU also had a close one to Susquehanna, go figure.

In Massey's algorithm Muhlenberg is a better team and has played a tougher schedule.

As for Centre, their Massey SOS turned out lower, but it's not like they scheduled hacks and frauds. We've discussed that before somewhere else. Centre's problem is that four of their opponents (Hanover, W&L, Wash U and Millsaps) decided to have a collective stink this year. B-Southern is also not good compared to their past. Yes, Centre didn't play someone of UMHB's caliper, but they're 9-0 and I gotta give them some credit for that.

What's really sticking with me with TLU is their games before and after UMHB. I thought they should have been better against ETBU, Trinity and Austin. Wins all, yes, and I can excuse a close game against a lesser light, but those three give me pause.

Also, they are NOT mutually exclusive views when you look at the ENTIRE universe of D3. Rating someone 24th or 25th best, or 27th or 28th best, is a marginal difference. It's entirely plausible that given 15 other voters TLU gets some votes. I'm surprised no one on Pat's panel voted for Oshkosh, but I'm not having a hissy fit about it, calling them wrong, questioning their motives or logic.

Please understand that regional rankings ARE NOT CONGRUENT to any Top 25 rankings. Never have been. Dismiss them for anything but playoff discussions. They have guidelines that they have to follow.

[smedindy]

We will never really see who is 'right' or not, anyway. Not all Top 25 teams will make the playoffs. If TLU does I'd bet they're on the road to Belton, again, because the NCAA is O'Bannoned. Meanwhile, if Centre makes it there are several teams that they can play within 500 miles.

[Tekken]

Smed-

Now you're answering my questions and proving your mettle.  I'll let your work of a validated defense for Muhlenberg negate the petty hissy fit comment at the end.  Where have I ever claimed anything, much less cried about it?  That's the type of attack I was alluding to when I claimed defensiveness about your (again collective, just assume this from here on out, unfair as it probably is) fan rankings.

Don't go and undermine your work of making a case for Muhlenberg by trying to make a case for Centre.  I'm not accusing them of scheduling hacks, just seeing it as you put it, as it is.  They played multiple teams that happen to be bad this year, and beat them.  TLU has played teams that have been better this year, and beat them.  Had TLU scheduled any of Centre's opponents this year, there is a very good liklihood they would also be 9-0, with a better Massey ranking, which you are hanging your hat on.  So we're right back to you ranking them higher as a reward for not scheduling UMHB.  Fair enough.  My philosophy differs in this case.

As for the mutually exclusiveness, they are by the original premise Ralph brought up (TLU not being one of the top 36 teams).  From the get go I acknowledged that might not actually be the case, however, if every fan voter in actuality had them right outside their top 25.  Again, your personal ranking validates this second premise.  Other responses, as I have expanded upon, did not.




D3parent-

I can follow most of your logic, I just find issue with your politics statement.  I can see on the surface how this looks, but the defense AGAINST the regional rankings is that they are so rigid based on criteria.  You're wanting it both ways by claiming subjectivity here.  I agree, this picture gets cleared up with the result of HSU/LC.  If HSU takes care of LC, would that then change your stance?  Or do you just fall back on the same defense, now using LC's coach to validate HSU as well as TLU?

[Tekken]

By the way it works, we will likely never know which diverging view is most correct. 

We will never really see who is 'right' or not, anyway.

Turns out we agree, after all.


And until HSU, Trinity, LC, or another ASC/SCAC team pick up the banner to give this region 3 playoff teams, that will unfortunately be true for the forseeable future.

[smedindy]

Smed-

Now you're answering my questions and proving your mettle.  I'll let your work of a validated defense for Muhlenberg negate the petty hissy fit comment at the end.  Where have I ever claimed anything, much less cried about it?  That's the type of attack I was alluding to when I claimed defensiveness about your (again collective, just assume this from here on out, unfair as it probably is) fan rankings.

It smacked of a hissy fit, "WHY ISN'T MYYYYYY TEAM RANKED BY 10 RANDOM D3 FANS???"

I see it with some Wabash fans, "D3 Footballand the NCAA disrespect us." No, they don't. I have to tell some Wabash fans to stop whining. The NCAA hates all teams equally. D3 Football pays a lot of attention to Wabash - unlike say Beloit or Benedictine or Bates.

If you would have not stated we were WRONG in our rankings I probably wouldn't have used that phrase. WRONG is the most incorrect phrase in the world when discussing something like this, especially when it's been acknowledged that TLU is in the neighborhood. It's not like we're raking Buena Vista over TLU or anything.

[smedindy]

Don't go and undermine your work of making a case for Muhlenberg by trying to make a case for Centre.  I'm not accusing them of scheduling hacks, just seeing it as you put it, as it is.  They played multiple teams that happen to be bad this year, and beat them.  TLU has played teams that have been better this year, and beat them.  Had TLU scheduled any of Centre's opponents this year, there is a very good liklihood they would also be 9-0, with a better Massey ranking, which you are hanging your hat on.  So we're right back to you ranking them higher as a reward for not scheduling UMHB.  Fair enough.  My philosophy differs in this case.

No, that IS NOT the case. I am NOT ranking them higher because of not scheduling UMHB. How did you ever infer that? You're reading what you want to read into it. That's NOT my reasoning for Centre's ranking. Washington & Jefferson didn't schedule UMHB, Wesley or Mt. Union, and they're even higher....

I just said they didn't play someone of UMHB's caliper. That's true, but it's not why I ranked Centre higher.

Centre's Massey ratings are worse than TLU. But I don't use Massey as my be-all, else I would just copy it. Remove UMHB from TLU's schedule and their Massey SOS rating goes down for sure. I don't know about their overall power ranking. I think Centre's is diminished by their game with W&L. But that's just one data point.

The games BEFORE and AFTER the UMHB are the games giving me pause. It's the entire universe, NOT just the drubbing. I have to weigh THE ENTIRE BODY OF WORK of TLU against not only Centre, but Chapman, North Central, St. Thomas, Concorida-Moorhead, Oshkosh, Pacific, et. al.

[Tekken]

Assumption.  I'd suggest you go back and read again. 

For what it's worth, against your assumption I actually think, if they are not actually ranked correctly (20 - 26), TLU is if anything over ranked in the regional rankings and top 25 polls/fan polls.  Keep on shouting homerism though, the hills will listen.  But again, I have objective reasons for my thoughts.  My rationale does not include two sided defenses about strength of schedule and margin of defeat against UMHB.  That result, especially, is irrelevant to anyone ranked outside the top 15 or so.  My reasoning is actually similar to yours.  Having seen every game in person, their offense after the UMHB beatdown is not the same offense it was before the beat down.  Their defense has always been suspect, but in actuality is a relative strength of theirs at this point in the season.  Their offense was always what made them a possible top 15 - 25 team, however, it definitively has not been that over the last 1/4 of their season.  I still consider their ETBU result a point of strength.  They won that game in the manner that would validate a top 25 ranking based on their team identity.  Outscore 'em.

But even given that stance, I still can't understand the rationale that gives the stark edge to Centre, both in the top 25 and fan polls.  In essence, both teams have beaten who they were supposed to beat, with TLU having done so against better competition.  Either you are awarding Centre for not playing anyone, or you are punishing TLU for taking on UMHB.  Unless there is another explanation?

[Tekken]

Somebody is obviously wrong, whether it be the pollsters or the fan poll.  That discrepancy is too large.  Or, I guess it could theoretically be that all of the fan poll members have them ranked 26th as well, garnering them 0 counting points. 

It becomes even more interesting when you look at the first week's regional rankings from the south.  The fans poll very cleanly follows the top 4 (UMHB, Wesley, John Hopkins, W&J), then the large TLU discrepancy (tied 5th in regional rankings along with Centre), followed by another clean comparison to the regional rankings with 5 - 7 (Centre, Muhlenburg, Thomas More) all receiving multiple fan votes.

I wonder exactly where the differing interpretation is on the data/results that makes these gaps so wide?

Oy vey.

[smedindy]

You don't call a group of people wrong when questioning their opnions about the team you root for and escape homerism. You can't. You won't. Also, you were stating the RRs and the NCAA SOS and wondering about OUR poll, compared to the RRs. Two different animals.

I don't think TLU's competition is vastly superior to Centre's, outside of UMHB. So both of your assumptions on ,y ranking of Centre are incorrect. UMHB skews the SOS calculation so much. But how different are Austin and Wash U? It's not like TLU has played a Empire 8 or WIAC schedule.

I am not rewarding Centre for not playing anyone. I avoid that. Normally, a 9-0 team would be near the top 10 to 15. W&J is barely there. Centre's way down there, considering they are 9-0. Carroll was never in the mix even by being undefeated. There's no way I'm voting for Macalester, even as I applaud them for 9-1.

The whapping UMHB gave TLU is contextual to their results against LC and HSU. LC gave them a game after the first quarter. HSU had a halftime lead. TLU was never there. That gives me a bit of a pause. Then the Austin and Trinity games happened. Then you look at ETBU, and you wonder...

Again, for the billionth time. THE GAPS AREN'T WIDE. 26th or 27th best versus 22nd or 23rd? MINUTE.

[RLW]

It is my firm belief that if two people disagree on a subject, it will never be resolved by exchanging post/emails. Sitting behind a computer screen in the privacy of you home/office will never come to an agreement. Go sit face to face discuss the issue calmly to come to an conclusion/resolution. Before you take offense to this, I will admit this is only my opinion.

[smedindy]

But then the concept of message boards goes asunder...we may as well close this up...

[Tekken]

We could go in circles forever.  Yes HSU had a halftime lead on UMHB.  They must be really good.  TLU handled HSU.  And?

Somebody is obviously wrong, whether it be the pollsters or the fan poll.  That discrepancy is too large.  Or, I guess it could theoretically be that all of the fan poll members have them ranked 26th as well, garnering them 0 counting points. 

It becomes even more interesting when you look at the first week's regional rankings from the south.  The fans poll very cleanly follows the top 4 (UMHB, Wesley, John Hopkins, W&J), then the large TLU discrepancy (tied 5th in regional rankings along with Centre), followed by another clean comparison to the regional rankings with 5 - 7 (Centre, Muhlenburg, Thomas More) all receiving multiple fan votes.


I wonder exactly where the differing interpretation is on the data/results that makes these gaps so wide?

I'll leave it at this, because you're obviously entrenched into to your defensiveness.  I don't know how to point it out any clearer than this.  Bolded acknowledgement.  Bolded acknowledgment.  Bolded neutral question.  Get over yourself.  The actuality at this point is you look at my screenname and assume homerism instead of objectively answering the question, whether it be from historical perspective a la Wabash or an internal doubt of your own due diligence to properly rank them.