D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[BashDad]

#13 Wabash - Head to head Wabash is going to lose to 1-8 and most likely 9 and 10 (going on historical playoff results for their conference at 20-19... the last 5 years has seen some significant point spread losses in the playoffs)

Y'all are being nice. This is dumb. Watch a game.

These would be my current spreads for Wabash against the Top 10.

-13.5 v UWW
-10.5 v UMU
-12.5 v Linfield
-4.5 v UMHB
+2.5 v Wesley
-2.5 v Wheaton
+3.5 v Wartburg
+3.5 v St. Thomas
+13.5 v John Hopkins

[wally_wabash]

#1 UWW Until proven otherwise
#2 MUC Wish they would have tougher playoff games prior to the semi's or finals (excluding conference rematches where teams know each other)
#3/4/5/6 Linfield/UMHB/Wesley/MIAC winner/leader
#7 CCIW winner/leader which is Wheaton
#8 Wartburg
#9 WIAC #2 or MIAC #2
#10 WIAC #2 or MIAC #2
#11 WIAC # 3 or MIAC #3
#12 MIAC #3
#13 Wabash - Head to head Wabash is going to lose to 1-8 and most likely 9 and 10 (going on historical playoff results for their conference at 20-19... the last 5 years has seen some significant point spread losses in the playoffs)

I think this is kind of lazy.  Why is any random CCIW winner just automatically #7?  You're evaluating leagues and not teams.

Just as lazy to call Wheaton a random CCIW winner isn't it?

Not my words.  If I'm reading WWW's process properly, he's saying any CCIW winner/leader is the 7th best team in D3.  Could be Wheaton (it is at the moment) or it could be any other CCIW team.  The main qualifier is that the team comes from the CCIW, which I think does a disservice to any good team from a league that we generally view as lesser than the CCIW. 

[USee]

I understand that.  But your word is "random" not his.  And your use of that word presupposes that it could be Carthage and it would still be #7.  That presumption is your interpretation (which may be accurate) may not be true and  I didn't read it that way.  I read it as Wheaton is the CCIW leader at 7.  If it was Millikin it may have been #10.  I don't think #7 is coincidental with the CCIW leader/Wheaton's actual national rank this year.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Wally is correct.  Until proven otherwise I don't feel that the NCAC champion is a Top 10 caliber team based on playoff results over the last 5 years.  (rankings are from final Top 25 poll)
2010 - Wittenburg beats #8 ONU then loses to #3 North Central 28-9
2011 - Wabash beats #UR Illinois College, beats #8 North Central, Loses to #2 MUC 20-8
2012 - Wittenberg beats #19 Heidelberg, loses to #9 Hobart 35-10 who loses to #3 St Thomas 47-7
2013 - Wittenberg beats #UR Lebanon Valley then loses to #2 MUCH 56-21
2014 - Wittenberg loses to #14 W&J who loses to #2 MUC 67-0
2014 - Wabash beats #UR Franklin then loses to #1 UWW 38-14

I see 1 very good win (2011 vs North Central).  1 very good loss 2011 vs MUC.  And a bunch of bad to very bad losses (especially when I consider what happened in the next rounds to teams that beat NCAC teams... )

Based on these results I'd say that the NCAC champion is normally the 3rd best team in either the WIAC or the MIAC. 

The CCIW has shown much better in the playoffs over the past 5 years with deep runs by North Central. 

Until the NCAC shows it in the playoffs they wouldn't get my vote to be in the Top 10 as they haven't proven that they are good enough year in year out.

[wally_wabash]

How did all of those runners up and third place teams from your favorite leagues do?  Are they doing better than an NCAC champion?

[D3MAFAN]

Wally is correct.  Until proven otherwise I don't feel that the NCAC champion is a Top 10 caliber team based on playoff results over the last 5 years.  (rankings are from final Top 25 poll)
2010 - Wittenburg beats #8 ONU then loses to #3 North Central 28-9
2011 - Wabash beats #UR Illinois College, beats #8 North Central, Loses to #2 MUC 20-8
2012 - Wittenberg beats #19 Heidelberg, loses to #9 Hobart 35-10 who loses to #3 St Thomas 47-7
2013 - Wittenberg beats #UR Lebanon Valley then loses to #2 MUCH 56-21
2014 - Wittenberg loses to #14 W&J who loses to #2 MUC 67-0
2014 - Wabash beats #UR Franklin then loses to #1 UWW 38-14

I see 1 very good win (2011 vs North Central).  1 very good loss 2011 vs MUC.  And a bunch of bad to very bad losses (especially when I consider what happened in the next rounds to teams that beat NCAC teams... )

Based on these results I'd say that the NCAC champion is normally the 3rd best team in either the WIAC or the MIAC. 

The CCIW has shown much better in the playoffs over the past 5 years with deep runs by North Central. 

Until the NCAC shows it in the playoffs they wouldn't get my vote to be in the Top 10 as they haven't proven that they are good enough year in year out.

How would you rank them in the NWC?

[02 Warhawk]

#13 Wabash - Head to head Wabash is going to lose to 1-8 and most likely 9 and 10 (going on historical playoff results for their conference at 20-19... the last 5 years has seen some significant point spread losses in the playoffs)

Y'all are being nice. This is dumb. Watch a game.

These would be my current spreads for Wabash against the Top 10.

-13.5 v UWW
-10.5 v UMU
-12.5 v Linfield
-4.5 v UMHB
+2.5 v Wesley
-2.5 v Wheaton
+3.5 v Wartburg
+3.5 v St. Thomas
+13.5 v John Hopkins

r

I'm curious what a knowledgeable D3 fan - who didn't have a horse in this race - would set these lines at on a neutral field?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

#13 Wabash - Head to head Wabash is going to lose to 1-8 and most likely 9 and 10 (going on historical playoff results for their conference at 20-19... the last 5 years has seen some significant point spread losses in the playoffs)

Y'all are being nice. This is dumb. Watch a game.

These would be my current spreads for Wabash against the Top 10.

-13.5 v UWW
-10.5 v UMU
-12.5 v Linfield
-4.5 v UMHB
+2.5 v Wesley
-2.5 v Wheaton
+3.5 v Wartburg
+3.5 v St. Thomas
+13.5 v John Hopkins

r

I'm curious what a knowledgeable D3 fan - who didn't have a horse in this race - would set these lines at on a neutral field?

Wabash (+17.5) vs UWW
Wabash (+14.5) vs UMU
Wabash (+14.5)vs Linfield
Wabash (+14.5) vs UMHB
Wabash (+10.5) vs Wesley
Wabash (EVEN) vs Wheaton
Wabash (EVEN) vs Wartburg
Wabash (+6.5) vs St Thomas
Wabash vs Johns Hopkins (+3.5)
Wabash (EVEN) vs Thomas More

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

They would be a clear #2 in the NWC using my criteria of past performance. We will know much more about Linfield, Whitworth, and Pacific in two weeks. Pacific losing to Dubuesqe makes it tough for me to give them any national love especially considering they lost at home to a team that was pounded by two other good programs. I am still uncertain about Whitworth and will know more after the 17th when we play them. The NWC is down this year with PLU and Willamette being unusually bad so far this year.

A good question on how the number two teams from the MIAC and WIAC have done.  I will look into that more tomorrow. . The big challenge is that both are seeded in the West and you simply can't compare the East or North to the West in terms of strong teams in the playoffs. I'm basing that statement on final Top 25 rankings and cumulative score differential in the playoffs. I truly believe that if we had a playoff field seeded 1-32 based purely on how good a committee believes each team to be that the WIAC and MIAC would have a lot of first and second round victories.

[02 Warhawk]

#13 Wabash - Head to head Wabash is going to lose to 1-8 and most likely 9 and 10 (going on historical playoff results for their conference at 20-19... the last 5 years has seen some significant point spread losses in the playoffs)

Y'all are being nice. This is dumb. Watch a game.

These would be my current spreads for Wabash against the Top 10.

-13.5 v UWW
-10.5 v UMU
-12.5 v Linfield
-4.5 v UMHB
+2.5 v Wesley
-2.5 v Wheaton
+3.5 v Wartburg
+3.5 v St. Thomas
+13.5 v John Hopkins

r

I'm curious what a knowledgeable D3 fan - who didn't have a horse in this race - would set these lines at on a neutral field?

Wabash (+17.5) vs UWW
Wabash (+14.5) vs UMU
Wabash (+14.5)vs Linfield
Wabash (+14.5) vs UMHB
Wabash (+10.5) vs Wesley
Wabash (EVEN) vs Wheaton
Wabash (EVEN) vs Wartburg
Wabash (+6.5) vs St Thomas
Wabash vs Johns Hopkins (+3.5)
Wabash (EVEN) vs Thomas More

Ask and you shall receive

[jknezek]

As an outsider I'd offer some minor tweaks as I do think this Wabash team, this year only, is better than I've seen before:

Wabash (+14.5) vs UWW
Wabash (+10.5) vs UMU
Wabash (+10.5)vs Linfield
Wabash (+9.5) vs UMHB
Wabash (+4.5) vs Wesley
Wabash (EVEN) vs Wheaton
Wabash vs Wartburg (+3.5)
Wabash (+3.5) vs St Thomas
Wabash vs Johns Hopkins (+8.5)
Wabash vs Thomas More (+3.5)

[AO]

If you don't flip flop St. Thomas and Wartburg after today, you're doing it wrong.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

If you don't flip flop St. Thomas and Wartburg after today, you're doing it wrong.

I have no plans to... but that's because I had St Thomas 6th and Wartburg 10th on my ballot

[Mr. Ypsi]

If you don't flip flop St. Thomas and Wartburg after today, you're doing it wrong.

I have no plans to... but that's because I had St Thomas 6th and Wartburg 10th on my ballot

I had Wartburg 8 and UST 9, but, yes, they will get flipped - though BOTH may get jumped by UW-Oshkosh.  I've got some serious investigating/thinking to do!

Like, how far to drop the defending national champions?  (H-t-h is obviously a PRIME consideration, but UWO will NOT go above UWW on my ballot - a 3-point loss on the road is NOT decisive, and UWW's NAIA WIN was to a higher ranked team than UWO's loss.)  At the moment, I'm thinking UWW goes 4th (behind UMU, Linfield, and UMHB), but that may change as the hours pass.

[thewaterboy]

If you don't flip flop St. Thomas and Wartburg after today, you're doing it wrong.

I have no plans to... but that's because I had St Thomas 6th and Wartburg 10th on my ballot

I had Wartburg 8 and UST 9, but, yes, they will get flipped - though BOTH may get jumped by UW-Oshkosh.  I've got some serious investigating/thinking to do!

Like, how far to drop the defending national champions?  (H-t-h is obviously a PRIME consideration, but UWO will NOT go above UWW on my ballot - a 3-point loss on the road is NOT decisive, and UWW's NAIA WIN was to a higher ranked team than UWO's loss.)  At the moment, I'm thinking UWW goes 4th (behind UMU, Linfield, and UMHB), but that may change as the hours pass.

Still considering as well about UWW. Right now, I dont have them dropping past 5 or 6 at the most. And while their win over Morningside was good and against a #1 team, no one else has played them in D3. Since Morningside is NAIA, I have difficulty determining the overall quality of the win. If they were Division II or FCS this would be a little easier because I feel like the NAIA holds an extremely wide range of talent.