D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

I'd be hard pressed to drop uww all that much but I would be inclined to place uwo a single spot ahead of them as they did beat them head to head. It would be easier to do so if uwo was undefeated.

I'd expect the Top 10 to be:

Muc
Linfield
Mhb
Wesley
Wartburg
Wheaton
Uwo
Uww
St Thomas
Wabash
It sounds like this year's Wabash team may be a stronger than usual NCAC team although we won't know until Round 2 of the playoffs.

Wartburg doesn't seem to operating at the level I expected... Yet...

North Central needs to be ranked much higher than 17 considering both who they lost to and the manner of each loss. I'd put them at 11 followed by St Johns then UWP.

St Thomas may be a Top 5 team as I hate to drop the MIAC leader all that far. It will be interesting to see sos and regional rankings when they come out as the MIAC currently has five teams with at most two losses (Bethels losses to CM and Wartburg). That is one tough conference and not E8 tough but rather legitimate playoff contending tough.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Lol. You're going to give North Central so much credit for 2 good losses that you'll rank them AHEAD of the UWP team that beat them?

I agree that NCC deserves a high rabking, and probably just behind UWP, but this "they played a tough schedule, let's cut them some slack" stuff has reached a critical mass when we rank them ahead of a team that gave them one of this losses.

[02 Warhawk]

If you don't flip flop St. Thomas and Wartburg after today, you're doing it wrong.

I have no plans to... but that's because I had St Thomas 6th and Wartburg 10th on my ballot

I had Wartburg 8 and UST 9, but, yes, they will get flipped - though BOTH may get jumped by UW-Oshkosh.  I've got some serious investigating/thinking to do!

Like, how far to drop the defending national champions?  (H-t-h is obviously a PRIME consideration, but UWO will NOT go above UWW on my ballot - a 3-point loss on the road is NOT decisive, and UWW's NAIA WIN was to a higher ranked team than UWO's loss.)  At the moment, I'm thinking UWW goes 4th (behind UMU, Linfield, and UMHB), but that may change as the hours pass.

To me it's a no brainer. UWW is going to struggle this year against any team that resembles a good defense. For that reason I have them 9th with UWO 8th. I'll have a tough time listening to any reasoning why UWO shouldn't be ahead of UWW. It doesn't more definitive than a head to head match up on who's better.

If UWO had a "decisive" win against UWW, then you're talking UWO as a top tier team this year (with UWW a good 3 or 4 spots behind them).

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

2015 WEEK 6 TOP 25 FAN POLL

Rank         Team                   Points    Prev
1)   Mount Union (5)      196     2
2)   Linfield (3)         195     3
3)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   183     4
4)   Wesley               171     5
T5)   UW-Oshkosh           157    13
T5)   Wheaton              157     6
7)   UW-Whitewater        152     1
8)   Wabash               151     8
9)   St Thomas            146     9
10)   Wartburg             129     7
11)   Johns Hopkins        118    10
12)   Thomas More          115    11
13)   UW-Platteville        99    12
14)   St John's             93    14
15)   Hardin-Simmons        79    17
16)   North Central         76    16
17)   Wash & Jeff           65    18
18)   Concordia-Moorhead    50    20
19)   Illinois Wesleyan     39    NR
20)   Salisbury             28    NR
21)   Albright              26    22
22)   Texas Lutheran        23   T25
23)   Whitworth             21    23
24)   John Carroll          20   T25
25)   DePauw                19    NR

Dropped Out: Rowan, Cortland St, Wittenberg, and Chicago

Also Receiving Votes: Bethel (14),  Rowan (13), Ithaca (11), Washington & Lee (10), Gustavus Adolphus (9), Western New England (7), Gettysburg (6), Albion (5), Ohio Northern (5), Cortland St (4), Berry (3), St Lawrence (2), Wittenberg (2), St Norbert (1)

Voters: 02 Warhawk, D3MAFAN-MG, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, and thewaterboy

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   Mount Union          196  ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  2,  2,  3)
  2)   Linfield             195  ( 1,  1,  1,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2)
  3)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   183  ( 2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4,  4)
  4)   Wesley               171  ( 3,  4,  4,  4,  5,  5,  6,  6)
T5)   UW-Oshkosh           157  ( 4,  5,  5,  6,  6,  8,  8,  9)
T5)   Wheaton              157  ( 3,  5,  5,  7,  7,  7,  8,  9)
  7)   UW-Whitewater        152  ( 4,  5,  6,  6,  7,  7,  9, 12)
  8)   Wabash               151  ( 5,  6,  7,  7,  8,  8,  8,  8)
  9)   St Thomas            146  ( 4,  6,  7,  8,  9,  9,  9, 10)
10)   Wartburg             129  ( 9,  9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11)
11)   Johns Hopkins        118  (11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12)
12)   Thomas More          115  (10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14)
13)   UW-Platteville        99  (13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 16)
14)   St John's             93  (12, 13, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16)
15)   Hardin-Simmons        79  (13, 14, 15, 16, 16, 17, 17, 21)
16)   North Central         76  (14, 14, 14, 15, 16, 16, 17, --)
17)   Wash & Jeff           65  (13, 16, 16, 17, 18, 18, 19, --)
18)   Concordia-Moorhead    50  (17, 17, 18, 18, 19, 20, 23, --)
19)   Illinois Wesleyan     39  (18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 24)
20)   Salisbury             28  (18, 20, 21, 21, 24, 24, --, --)
21)   Albright              26  (15, 17, 20, --, --, --, --, --)
22)   Texas Lutheran        23  (15, 19, 23, 24, --, --, --, --)
23)   Whitworth             21  (17, 18, 22, --, --, --, --, --)
24)   John Carroll          20  (18, 19, 22, 25, --, --, --, --)
25)   DePauw                19  (22, 22, 22, 22, 23, --, --, --)

26)   Bethel                14  (19, 20, 25)
27)   Rowan                 13  (20, 23, 24, 25, 25)
28)   Ithaca                11  (20, 21)
29)   Wash & Lee            10  (21, 23, 24)
30)   Gustavus Adolphus      9  (19, 25, 25)
31)   W New England          7  (19)
32)   Gettysburg             6  (20)
T33)   Albion                 5  (21)
T33)   Ohio Northern          5  (21)
35)   Cortland St            4  (23, 25)
36)   Berry                  3  (23)
T37)   St Lawrence            2  (24)
T37)   Wittenberg             2  (24)
39)   St Norbert             1  (25)

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

My bad.. I should have put them in this order.. UWP, North Central, St Johns... North Central is a couple of plays away from being undefeated with 2 great wins over Wesley and UWP but they didn't get it done.  What is sad is that if they lose to Wheaton they won't make the playoffs even though they will be a top 20 team while the UMAC gets an auto bid (along with a bunch of other terrible conferences)...

Interesting how my Top 10 more closely aligns with the D3 Top 25 versus the fan poll...  Seems to be a lot of fan bias in the fan poll versus what is reality on the field

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

My bad.. I should have put them in this order.. UWP, North Central, St Johns... North Central is a couple of plays away from being undefeated with 2 great wins over Wesley and UWP but they didn't get it done.  What is sad is that if they lose to Wheaton they won't make the playoffs even though they will be a top 20 team while the UMAC gets an auto bid (along with a bunch of other terrible conferences)...

Interesting how my Top 10 more closely aligns with the D3 Top 25 versus the fan poll...  Seems to be a lot of fan bias in the fan poll versus what is reality on the field

[wally_wabash]

My bad.. I should have put them in this order.. UWP, North Central, St Johns... North Central is a couple of plays away from being undefeated with 2 great wins over Wesley and UWP but they didn't get it done.  What is sad is that if they lose to Wheaton they won't make the playoffs even though they will be a top 20 team while the UMAC gets an auto bid (along with a bunch of other terrible conferences)...

Interesting how my Top 10 more closely aligns with the D3 Top 25 versus the fan poll...  Seems to be a lot of fan bias in the fan poll versus what is reality on the field

The two polls have the same 10 teams in basically the same order?  I don't understand. 

Not sure why the diss on the UMAC.  Any UMAC team could have lost to Wesley and/or Platteville and still qualified for the tournament by winning their league- the same as North Central.  What's not the same is that none of the teams in the UMAC could have lost those games and still be ranked in the top 20 nationally or be ranked in the top 10 in their region.  So let's not cry for North Central.  They get a pass for a lot of losing that 98% of the division wouldn't ever get. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

What is sad is that if they lose to Wheaton they won't make the playoffs even though they will be a top 20 team while the UMAC gets an auto bid (along with a bunch of other terrible conferences)...

I expect that we'll have plenty of time to debate this in a few weeks if that actually happens, but I think it's probably worth getting this out there now:

If North Central does lose to Wheaton, beat Illinois Wesleyan, and finish 7-3 they will not make the playoffs.  Are they a top 20 team?  Yes, almost certainly, but there's also this: they will have played three games against teams who are in the field / on the bubble (Platteville is not a playoff lock right now, and they just gasped their way past a Stevens Point team that gave up 65 points to MIAA leader Albion, who plays in one of the leagues you're ****ting on with this nonsense) and lost all three of them.  I am sympathetic to teams that play difficult schedule, but viewed another way they would be 0-3 (if we give them credit for Illinois Wesleyan being a bubble-type playoff team, 1-3) against playoff-esque teams.

In a tournament where the ultimate goal is determination of a national champion, doesn't that pass for sufficient evidence that North Central is not the nation's best team?  How many chances does a team get?  If North Central loses by a point to Wesley in the playoffs, do they get to ask the officials to line up and keep playing because, gosh-darn-it, they were so close?  Those three losses  (still hypothetical in Wheaton's case) would have come against very, very good teams but probably not the #1, 2, and 3 teams in the nation.  Let's suppose for the moment that Wesley is in fact #4, Wheaton #7, and UW-Platteville #13.  Where do we draw the line?

In a humorous bit of reverse psychology, North Central scheduling and losing those 2 games has won them plenty of supporters that cannot wait to declare how unfair it is that they'll be left out of the playoffs, before that's even finalized.  Welp, folks, they had a chance to win'em all (and still have the chance to win their way in via a league championship).  What makes the D3 football season great, to me, is that (theoretically) when the season kicks off, every single team has a path to the playoffs.  North Central still has that path available to them.  Maybe if they want to win the national championship so badly, we should ask them to win their league title first?  Seems pretty reasonable, no?

I understand "They're only a couple of plays from being 4-0" argument, but folks, that's why we keep score and declare the team who has more points at the end of the game the winner.  Taking this to its logical conclusion, every team that loses a close game can petition for special consideration because, darn it folks, they almost won!  Hold on, I'm going to call the NCAA and ask if they can retroactively put Wartburg back into the 2014 playoffs because they were just one play away from beating Whitewater.  Oh, that's not how it works?

You can certainly use their late leads as evidence that they belong in the discussion with the nation's top teams, but still, they lost the games.  How would you feel, if you were Wheaton, if you played your balls off to beat North Central for the league title (and deal them a third loss), then had to play them again in the second round?  Would it sit very well that your conference rival, who lost three games and who you beat for the league title, gets another crack at you?  This whole argument devalues the battle for conference championships (everyone's automatic, no-questions-asked path into the tournament) and the regular season as a whole.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

My bad.. I should have put them in this order.. UWP, North Central, St Johns... North Central is a couple of plays away from being undefeated with 2 great wins over Wesley and UWP but they didn't get it done.  What is sad is that if they lose to Wheaton they won't make the playoffs even though they will be a top 20 team while the UMAC gets an auto bid (along with a bunch of other terrible conferences)...

Interesting how my Top 10 more closely aligns with the D3 Top 25 versus the fan poll...  Seems to be a lot of fan bias in the fan poll versus what is reality on the field

The two polls have the same 10 teams in basically the same order?  I don't understand. 

Not sure why the diss on the UMAC.  Any UMAC team could have lost to Wesley and/or Platteville and still qualified for the tournament by winning their league- the same as North Central.  What's not the same is that none of the teams in the UMAC could have lost those games and still be ranked in the top 20 nationally or be ranked in the top 10 in their region.  So let's not cry for North Central.  They get a pass for a lot of losing that 98% of the division wouldn't ever get. 

98% of the division wouldn't have had the results that North Central had. Losing those games by 60 isn't the same as losing by 1 and in OT. If St Scholastica had those same results they'd find a spot on my ballot.
Should North Central play Maranatha Baptist and Earlham instead of Wesley and Platteville? I'd rather teams play a tougher schedule and prove their abilities than play cupcakes like they do in D1 just to protect their record.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

I've always been in favor of playoff eligibility being a combination of National/Regional Rankings plus conference performance.  Simply winning a conference shouldn't equate to an automatic bid to the playoffs.  I'd rather a team have to be ranked in the Top 25 to have the conference championship criteria matter. 

As for my dissing on the UMAC, I'll refer to the preseason rankings where not a single UMAC team was ranked in the top 150... St Scholastica @ #164 was first and the rest were 184, 200, 226, 230, 239, 241, 243, 244 for an average ranking of 220.  And the winner of that conference gets a bid to be crushed in the first round by the MIAC or WIAC winner.  It would be one thing if a conference was working to get better each year which might be the case with the UMAC and St Scholastica specifically as the score last year was 35-10 against St. Johns.  But repeated year after year playoff futility (defined as ending your season by being beaten by a significant margin with zero chance of being competitive) shouldn't be rewarded with a ribbon.

However, more on point to North Central.  They play in a very difficult conference (as defined by having at least 3 if not 4 playoff caliber programs).  Why they decided to schedule non conference games against Wesley and a top tier WIAC team is a good question?  I'd expect that they have the same challenge as other top national programs in finding games.  They shouldn't be penalized for scheduling and losing tough out of conference games.  Otherwise there is little incentive to do so... however, no one else will play them.. so what are they to do? ... I know... win their conference...

That argument simply gets old when so many teams are not deserving of a playoff bid.  But, we need to be fair to everyone and give them their participation trophy.

As for Wheaton having to play North Central in the 2nd round... There are very few easy games in the West past the first round.  Would they rather play the MIAC or Linfield or the WIAC?

[wally_wabash]

However, more on point to North Central.  They play in a very difficult conference (as defined by having at least 3 if not 4 playoff caliber programs).  Why they decided to schedule non conference games against Wesley and a top tier WIAC team is a good question?  I'd expect that they have the same challenge as other top national programs in finding games.  They shouldn't be penalized for scheduling and losing tough out of conference games.  Otherwise there is little incentive to do so... however, no one else will play them.. so what are they to do? ... I know... win their conference...

What are they to do?  Closing out the 4th quarter in games that matter would be a good start. 

[smedindy]

Again, the ethos and mission of D3 is inclusion. The UMAC is an example of that and I embrace it.  I'd rather see the UMAC in instead of a 3-loss third place team. The end result will be exactly the same.

[Bombers798891]

I've always been in favor of playoff eligibility being a combination of National/Regional Rankings plus conference performance.  Simply winning a conference shouldn't equate to an automatic bid to the playoffs.  I'd rather a team have to be ranked in the Top 25 to have the conference championship criteria matter. 

However, more on point to North Central.  They play in a very difficult conference (as defined by having at least 3 if not 4 playoff caliber programs).  Why they decided to schedule non conference games against Wesley and a top tier WIAC team is a good question?  I'd expect that they have the same challenge as other top national programs in finding games.  They shouldn't be penalized for scheduling and losing tough out of conference games.  Otherwise there is little incentive to do so... however, no one else will play them.. so what are they to do? ... I know... win their conference...

1. I completely agree with this first paragraph. There's a middle ground between awarding conference winners and giving teams proper credit for the relative strengths/weaknesses of said conferences.

2. But the bolded part I disagree with. We have to punish losses—it's the degree to which we punish them that can differ. You don't just get a game where if you win, it's this huge boost, but if you lose, it's irrelevant. Obviously, we don't punish a loss to Wesley as much as we would one to a mediocre team, but the idea that any school just gets a free pass for their tough OOC scheduling is ridiculous.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

I agree, arguing over losses is difficult.  What the AQ system sets up is virtually ZERO incentive for teams to schedule difficult non-conference games.  Teams that are in bad (meaning non-competitive in the playoffs) AQ conferences don't need to schedule up.  Teams that are in tough conferences - of which there are only a handful that are difficult in conference and relevant by Round 3 of the playoffs - can easily get themselves outside the 32 team bracket with a single non-conference loss.

North Central would have been better off to schedule 2 easy out of conference teams.  That way if they stumbled in the CCIW they'd be 9-1 and most likely still receive a spot in the playoffs.  But, I bet no one took their phone calls except for other top tier programs.  They had no option but to schedule easily loseable games.

Let's say that they turn out to be 7-3 with close losses to Wesley, UWP, and Wheaton.  They'd be a better team than 14-16 of the teams in the playoffs.  But because they had the guts to schedule tough games they are on the outside looking in.

Meanwhile, a bunch of teams get AQ's and are blasted in rounds 1 & 2.  Their only qualification for being included in the playoffs was that they won an easy conference... Yay!