D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[pg04]

I think where the D3football.com voters have them, at #6, is probably where I'd have them. Linfield, UWW, and UWO had the more impressive body of work, which has been described here numerous times.

I can't stand that body of work statement, hopefully yours doesn't involve game control and ESPN FPI metrics...

I really shouldn't use the phrase "body of work" because of the negative connotations from the neverending analysis of the FBS playoffs.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Still one ballot waiting to be sent... if any of you see 02 around today be sure to nag to get that ballot in I've sent multiple reminders over the past several days and I will be posting the final standings within 24 hours if I do not hear anything.

Some previews while you wait... top 2 are unanimous selections... 34 teams have been on a ballot and all have received at least 3 total points... 17 teams appear on all 7 ballots I've received... as of right now 4 teams have moved into the top 25

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Nothing from 02 today so here is the final poll of the year


2015 FINAL TOP 25 FAN POLL

Rank         Team                    Points    Prev
  1)   Mount Union (7)      175    T1
  2)   St Thomas            168     4
  3)   Linfield             157    T1
  4)   UW-Whitewater        152     5
  5)   Wesley               141    11
  6)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   140    10
  7)   UW-Oshkosh           135     3
  8)   Wabash               127     7
  9)   Wheaton              117     6
10)   Thomas More          115     9
11)   St John's            104    12
12)   Johns Hopkins        101     8
13)   Hardin-Simmons        94    13
14)   UW-Platteville        82    14
15)   North Central         64    16
16)   Cortland St           53    NR
17)   Texas Lutheran        47    19
18)   Washington & Lee      43    15
19)   Albright              34    17
20)   Wartburg              31    20
T21)   Dubuque               28    18
T21)   Huntingdon            28    NR
T23)   John Carroll          26    NR
T23)   Whitworth             26    22
25)   Ohio Northern         20    NR

Dropped Out: Salisbury, Guilford, Wittenberg, and St Norbert

Also Receiving Votes: Framingham St (14), Washington & Jefferson (13), Wittenberg (13), Salisbury (6), St Lawrence (6), Guilford (5), Amherst (4), Albion (3), St Norbert (3)

Voters: D3MAFAN-MG, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, and thewaterboy

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   Mount Union          175    C    ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1)
  2)   St Thomas            168    F    ( 2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2)
  3)   Linfield             157   SF    ( 3,  3,  3,  3,  4,  4,  5)
  4)   UW-Whitewater        152   SF    ( 3,  3,  4,  4,  4,  5,  7)
  5)   Wesley               141   QF    ( 3,  4,  5,  6,  6,  7, 10)
  6)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   140   QF    ( 5,  5,  5,  6,  6,  7,  8)
  7)   UW-Oshkosh           135   QF    ( 4,  5,  6,  6,  8,  9,  9)
  8)   Wabash               127   QF    ( 6,  7,  7,  8,  8,  9, 10)
  9)   Wheaton              117   R2    ( 7,  7,  8,  8, 10, 11, 12)
10)   Thomas More          115   R2    ( 8,  8,  9, 10, 10, 11, 11)
11)   St John's            104   R2    ( 8, 10, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12)
12)   Johns Hopkins        101   R2    (10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 13, 14)
13)   Hardin-Simmons        94   R1    ( 9, 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 15)
14)   UW-Platteville        82   NP    (13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 16)
15)   North Central         64   NP    (13, 15, 15, 16, 16, 17, --)
16)   Cortland St           53   R2    (15, 15, 15, 17, 21, 23, 23)
17)   Texas Lutheran        47   NP    (14, 17, 18, 19, 20, 23, 24)
18)   Wash & Lee            43   R1    (17, 17, 18, 20, 21, 21, 25)
19)   Albright              34   R2    (16, 16, 19, 21, 24, --, --)
20)   Wartburg              31   NP    (16, 18, 21, 21, 24, 25, --)
T21)   Dubuque               28   R1    (19, 19, 20, 20, 24, --, --)
T21)   Huntingdon            28   R2    (18, 19, 20, 22, 23, --, --)
T23)   John Carroll          26   NP    (16, 18, 22, 24, 25, 25, --)
T23)   Whitworth             26   R1    (18, 18, 19, 23, --, --, --)
25)   Ohio Northern         20   R2    (19, 20, 21, 24, --, --, --)

26)   Framingham St         14   R1    (14, 24)
T27)   Wash & Jeff           13   NP    (17, 22)
T27)   Wittenberg            13   NP    (17, 22)
T29)   Salisbury              6   R1    (22, 25, 25)
T29)   St Lawrence            6   R1    (20)
31)   Guilford               5   NP    (22, 25)
32)   Amherst                4   NP    (22)
T33)   Albion                 3   R1    (23)
T33)   St Norbert             3   R1    (23)

[smedindy]

If you'll have me, I'll jump in next year again. My project at work has been delayed due to a vendor issue - but I think it SHOULD be wrapped up by July...

[Mr. Ypsi]

If you'll have me, I'll jump in next year again. My project at work has been delayed due to a vendor issue - but I think it SHOULD be wrapped up by July...

Hey, if they allow me to vote year after year, why wouldn't they take you?!

[thewaterboy]

Whats the rationale for putting Wesley at 10 on one voters poll? I had them at 4 on mine.

[wally_wabash]

Whats the rationale for putting Wesley at 10 on one voters poll? I had them at 4 on mine.

10 makes a lot more sense than 4, IMO. 

[jknezek]

Whats the rationale for putting Wesley at 10 on one voters poll? I had them at 4 on mine.

10 makes a lot more sense than 4, IMO.

Then you stand alone among voters. Since every other voter put Wesley within 3 spots of #4, while only 1 voter put Wesley within 3 spots of #10. Personally I don't get the reasoning for 10 either, as you'd need Wabash, Wheaton and TMC to jump Wesley. I just don't see that given two of the three were easily handled by teams that UMU easily handled. There just isn't cause to jump them above Wesley.

Not that Wesley's game against UMU was great, but at least in the second half there was a point where it looked like it could go their way. You just can't say that about UWW or STU, and those two easily handled Wabash and Wheaton.

Wesley's other loss isn't great, but it was to a playoff team and one that is RV in the final poll. They also do have a win at #12 JHU and at #16 NCC, plus RV Framingham.  Wabash's poll quality win is home against #10 TMC and RV Albion, so nothing more or less than comparable to what Wesley has. Wheaton's road win over NCC was one score, as was Wesley's.

Anyway, I think Wesley landed about where they should within a spot or two. I don't see anyone too out of place, though I think TLU is making a full calendar year living off their ridiculously disjointed playoff game against UMHB last year.

[wally_wabash]

Whats the rationale for putting Wesley at 10 on one voters poll? I had them at 4 on mine.

10 makes a lot more sense than 4, IMO.

Then you stand alone among voters. Since every other voter put Wesley within 3 spots of #4, while only 1 voter put Wesley within 3 spots of #10. Personally I don't get the reasoning for 10 either, as you'd need Wabash, Wheaton and TMC to jump Wesley. I just don't see that given two of the three were easily handled by teams that UMU easily handled. There just isn't cause to jump them above Wesley.

Definitely understand that I'm not in the majority Re: Wesley.  But when we started this whole crazy thing called the playoffs, Wesley was ranked behind Wabash, Wheaton, and TMC, so it was Wesley who jumped, not the others.  Why did Wesley jump?  Because of 56-35 vs. Mount Union?  I really can't believe the amount of credit that Wesley is getting from that result.  That's the part that doesn't make any sense to me.  I don't understand how giving up 50+ and losing by 3 TDs is a positive and I really don't understand how it is such a net positive, that it outweighs a bad loss (by top 10 standards), a season's worth of pretty average defensive play, and a couple of other dicey results tossed into their 2015 schedule.  I'm not saying I would have placed Wesley at #10, but I am saying that 10 is closer to what they earned than 4 and I don't think that's really a close call. 

Not that Wesley's game against UMU was great, but at least in the second half there was a point where it looked like it could go their way. You just can't say that about UWW or STU, and those two easily handled Wabash and Wheaton.

Hmm.  I think St. Thomas was much more in their game against Mount Union than Wesley ever was.  St. Thomas did lead in the second half for a hot minute.  Wesley spotted the Raiders 21 points (should have been 28) in the first quarter and were chasing the entire way.  At best it's a push, but personally I think it's a stretch to say Wesley was just as in it as St. Thomas was.  Either way, the ice starts to get really thin when you start talking about Team A was closer to Team B than Team C who really laid it on Team D so Team A > Team D.  That's not a real strong connection.  And amongst these teams, we have 10+ other games to look at and help guide us.  It's a point I've made elsewhere before, but we put way too much emphasis on a single playoff result in the final rankings almost to the point of completely ignoring the other three months of the season. 

Wesley's other loss isn't great, but it was to a playoff team and one that is RV in the final poll. They also do have a win at #12 JHU and at #16 NCC, plus RV Framingham.  Wabash's poll quality win is home against #10 TMC and RV Albion, so nothing more or less than comparable to what Wesley has. Wheaton's road win over NCC was one score, as was Wesley's.

Salisbury...meh.  They're ranked or receiving votes because they beat Wesley.  Nothing else.  So it's confirmation bias.  How much better is Salisbury than say Wittenberg or DePauw?  I'm not sure there's a huge difference.  But Wittenberg and DePauw don't show up in the poll and Salisbury does because NJAC > NCAC and the poll loves its confirmation bias. 

[jknezek]

STU was in the game in the second half a bit. I will say watching that game after the first half I never thought STU would win. There was a brief moment in Wesley's second half where I thought they could. They didn't, obviously, and it got farther out of hand, but it was there in my mind.

Regardless, STU is ahead of Wesley, as they should be. The question is why should Wabash be in front of Wesley? Because they beat TMC at home? Or because they played excellent defense against mediocre teams and then got throttled by an excellent team? Wabash was never in the game versus STU. How far up the standings do you want to be when you are losing a game by 5 TDs until the dogs are called off?

I'm more than willing to concede that Wabash had an excellent defense. I don't think their offense was all that great, but the defense was excellent. I'm also not going out on a limb to say Wesley had an excellent offense. I don't think their defense was all that great, but the offense was excellent.

So given each had an excellent unit, Wesley lost to the champion by 21, and beat two top 20 opponents on the road, I like the way that stacks up against a team that got buried by a not quite touching distance runner up by 31 and beat one top 20 program at home, in overtime.

[USee]

Another data point in this discussion is the Wesley/Wheaton common opponent. Wheaton beat NCC 18-9 @ NCC and Wesley beat NCC 50-49 on the same field. It's not hard to see Wesley is closer to Wheaton, Wabash, TMC than it is to UMU/St Thomas. They had a seriously deficient defense that kept them from the top 4. I agree with Wally that Wesley is closer to 10 than they are to 4.

[jknezek]

Another data point in this discussion is the Wesley/Wheaton common opponent. Wheaton beat NCC 18-9 @ NCC and Wesley beat NCC 50-49 on the same field. It's not hard to see Wesley is closer to Wheaton, Wabash, TMC than it is to UMU/St Thomas. They had a seriously deficient defense that kept them from the top 4. I agree with Wally that Wesley is closer to 10 than they are to 4.

it was 17-9. So it was a 1 score game, as was Wesley's. It's just as easy to say Wheaton had a seriously deficient offense. To push Wesley down who do you want to move up? UWO or UMHB? I could see pushing UWO up, but UMHB also has that regular season loss and a loss to a team that couldn't stay within 2 TDs of the runner-up. I agree we are splitting hairs, but you've got to split them somewhere at this level.

I think Wesley had one of the best offenses in the country. NCC gave up 50 to Wesley, the next biggest was UWP at 35. Only Cortland put more points on Framingham St. They dropped 42 on JHU, no one else put more than 28. They put 35 on UMU. Only STU put up anything close to that.

I just have a hard time finding anyone else with a resume significantly better that falls behind Wesley.

[wally_wabash]

So given each had an excellent unit, Wesley lost to the champion by 21, and beat two top 20 opponents on the road, I like the way that stacks up against a team that got buried by a not quite touching distance runner up by 31 and beat one top 20 program at home, in overtime.

There's that extra degree of separation again.  That's just a really, really thin string of logic here that unfortunately gets way too much emphasis after the tournament.  We could deep dive into how Wabash's game vs. UST wasn't as bad as it looked (and I can do it with quasi-common opponents!) and how Wesley's game vs. UMU wasn't as good as it looked (and I'm still in shock that so many people believe that was at all good), but we don't need to do that.  There's an entire season's worth of games and data from which to draw conclusions about Wesley and Wabash and Thomas More and whoever else without having the whole thing hinge on the margin of victory in the Mount Union vs. St. Thomas game.  I mean seriously- say it out loud.  Wesley is better than Wabash because Mount Union beat St. Thomas by a lot.  It doesn't make any sense.  And I'm not here to shill for Wabash over Wesley (I believe they earned a higher ranking, but whatever).  That's not what I was getting at.  My point here was that Wesley didn't earn #4.  You can only get to that number by blocking out a lot of things that happened to Wesley in 2015.

[jknezek]

So given each had an excellent unit, Wesley lost to the champion by 21, and beat two top 20 opponents on the road, I like the way that stacks up against a team that got buried by a not quite touching distance runner up by 31 and beat one top 20 program at home, in overtime.

There's that extra degree of separation again.  That's just a really, really thin string of logic here that unfortunately gets way too much emphasis after the tournament.  We could deep dive into how Wabash's game vs. UST wasn't as bad as it looked (and I can do it with quasi-common opponents!) and how Wesley's game vs. UMU wasn't as good as it looked (and I'm still in shock that so many people believe that was at all good), but we don't need to do that.  There's an entire season's worth of games and data from which to draw conclusions about Wesley and Wabash and Thomas More and whoever else without having the whole thing hinge on the margin of victory in the Mount Union vs. St. Thomas game.  I mean seriously- say it out loud.  Wesley is better than Wabash because Mount Union beat St. Thomas by a lot.  It doesn't make any sense.  And I'm not here to shill for Wabash over Wesley (I believe they earned a higher ranking, but whatever).  That's not what I was getting at.  My point here was that Wesley didn't earn #4.  You can only get to that number by blocking out a lot of things that happened to Wesley in 2015.

Only a Wabash fan could say this. You had 73 yards of offense in the first half and 6 punts and were down 17-0. You averaged 12 yards per possession. Even still, I'll give you the defense held you in some hope despite giving up a 98 yard, 15 play drive, but any way you look at it, that first half was a dominating performance by STU. The second half started with a Wabash missed field goal, a fumble, then Wabash gave up onside kick recovery, and then two punts to close out the third quarter. So special teams failed twice, offense failed twice, and defense failed to stop STU (3 straight STU scoring drives). 38-0. Every facet of the game was beaten in those three quarters and the game was over before you got 130 yards of offense. It was every bit as bad as it looked.

As for the rest, yes and no. I like them better at 5 than at 4. I think UWO probably should move up a slot. But I can't really find a reason to push UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton or TMC ahead of Wesley. But it is all really thin comparisons at this point.