D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

                2017 Week 1 TOP 25 FAN POLL

#        School                Pts   Prev 
1)   Mary Hardin-Baylor (8)    247     1
2)   Mount Union (1)           241     2
3)   UW-Oshkosh                226     4
4)   St Thomas (1)             223     5
5)   Wheaton                   207     6
6)   North Central             196     7
7)   Linfield                  187     8
8)   St John's                 181    11
9)   Hardin-Simmons            151    12
10)   John Carroll              148     9
11)   Delaware Valley           133    19
12)   Illinois Wesleyan         128    NR
13)   UW-Whitewater             122     3
14)   Frostburg St              120    16
15)   Johns Hopkins             103    13
16)   UW-Platteville            102    14
17)   Wittenberg                 86    17
18)   Thomas More                78    20
19)   Wesley                     64    10
20)   Case Western Reserve       59    21
21)   Washington & Jefferson     47   T23
22)   Whitworth                  41    NR
23)   Alfred                     35    22
24)   Redlands                   31    NR
25)   Brockport                  25    NR

Dropped Out: Hobart, Stevenson, St John Fisher, Muhlenberg

Also Receiving Votes: Muhlenberg (23), Denison (13), Dubuque (8), Heidelberg (8), Concordia-Moorhead (6), Hobart (3), Wabash (3), Albright (2), Monmouth (2), Franklin (1)

Voters: 02 Warhawk, D3MAFAN, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HansenRatings, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, Scots13, and smedindy

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   Mary Hardin-Baylor    247    ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  2,  3)
  2)   Mount Union           241    ( 1,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2)
  3)   UW-Oshkosh            226    ( 3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4,  4,  5)
  4)   St Thomas             223    ( 1,  3,  3,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  6)
  5)   Wheaton               207    ( 4,  4,  5,  5,  5,  5,  5,  6,  7,  7)
  6)   North Central         196    ( 5,  5,  6,  6,  6,  6,  7,  7,  8,  8)
  7)   Linfield              187    ( 5,  6,  6,  7,  7,  7,  7,  8,  9, 11)
  8)   St John's             181    ( 5,  7,  7,  8,  8,  8,  9,  9,  9,  9)
  9)   Hardin-Simmons        151    ( 8,  9,  9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 13, 15, 15)
10)   John Carroll          148    ( 6,  8,  9,  9, 10, 11, 14, 14, 15, 16)
11)   Delaware Valley       133    (11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 14, 17, 18)
12)   Illinois Wesleyan     128    ( 6, 12, 12, 13, 13, 14, 15, 15, 16, 16)
13)   UW-Whitewater         122    ( 9, 10, 10, 10, 14, 14, 16, 17, 18, 20)
14)   Frostburg St          120    ( 8, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 17, 19, 22)
15)   Johns Hopkins         103    (12, 13, 13, 13, 16, 16, 17, 17, 18, 22)
16)   UW-Platteville        102    ( 8, 11, 12, 12, 15, 17, 17, 19, 21, --)
17)   Wittenberg             86    (13, 14, 14, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 22, --)
18)   Thomas More            78    (12, 12, 15, 16, 16, 18, 19, 23, 25, --)
19)   Wesley                 64    (13, 15, 18, 18, 21, 21, 21, 22, 22, 25)
20)   Case Western Reserve   59    (10, 17, 18, 19, 19, 23, 23, 23, 23, --)
21)   Wash & Jeff            47    (14, 17, 19, 19, 20, 22, 24, --, --, --)
22)   Whitworth              41    (15, 19, 19, 22, 23, 23, 23, 24, 25, --)
23)   Alfred                 35    (20, 20, 20, 20, 21, 22, 24, --, --, --)
24)   Redlands               31    (18, 20, 21, 21, 21, 25, 25, --, --, --)
25)   Brockport              25    (19, 21, 22, 24, 24, 24, 25, 25, 25, --)

26)   Muhlenberg             23    (16, 20, 22, 24, 25)
27)   Denison                13    (13)
T28)   Dubuque                 8    (20, 24)
T28)   Heidelberg              8    (18)
30)   Concordia Moorhead      6    (20)
T31)   Hobart                  3    (23)
T31)   Wabash                  3    (23)
T33)   Albright                2    (24)
T33)   Monmouth                2    (24)
35)   Franklin                1    (25)

[HansenRatings]

I went from the only voter ranking IWU to one of the voters giving them their worst ranking. Interesting...

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I went from the only voter ranking IWU to one of the voters giving them their worst ranking. Interesting...

You might want to check your ballot again

[HansenRatings]

I went from the only voter ranking IWU to one of the voters giving them their worst ranking. Interesting...

You might want to check your ballot again

I know my model had them in the Top 25 preseason, must have decided to take them off so I could sneak Wartburg in.

[Ralph Turner]

I am very much an outlier for most of teams, including being the only person not voting UMHB as #1 (very surprising to me, honestly), and being the only vote for about 4 of the teams receiving votes.

Do you vote strictly on your algorithm? Just curious. I've played around with one when I had more free time (a/k/a a boring job in the past) but never voted based on it.

It definitely influences my thinking, but I vote based on my own opinions (but I'm pretty unlikely to vote a team into my Top 25 if the algorithm has them around 50 or 75, like Western New England right now)

Hansen Ratings,

(Just getting caught up on some of the other boards...)

As for your being an outlier on 4 single vote teams, I can imagine that the confidence interval or standard deviation of your system will permit some of those outliers.
Having a #24 or even a #22 as single outlier may not be that unusual that far down the ballot.

My question to you about the rankings relates to your algorithm that may overvalue a team to receive a #14, #15, #18 or #19 vote.

I can imagine UW-Lacrosse being buoyed by its presence in the WIAC, but might one of your votes be Denison?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Just waiting on one more ballot. If it's in (which I think it will be) I'll try to get the poll up late tonight

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

One ballot missing this week... hopefully they'll be back next week as I already know one person will be gone


                2017 Week 2 TOP 25 FAN POLL

  #        School                Pts   Prev
  1)   Mary Hardin-Baylor (8)    224     1
  2)   Mount Union (1)           216     2
  3)   UW-Oshkosh                207     3
  4)   Wheaton                   196     5
  5)   North Central             185     6
  6)   St John's                 173     8
  7)   Linfield                  171     7
  8)   Hardin-Simmons            156     9
  9)   John Carroll              154    10
T10)   Delaware Valley           123    11
T10)   Frostburg St              123    14
12)   Illinois Wesleyan         112    12
13)   UW-Platteville            108    16
14)   St Thomas                 104     4
15)   Johns Hopkins              94    15
16)   Wittenberg                 85    17
17)   Case Western Reserve       67    20
18)   Brockport                  59    25
T19)   Concordia-Moorhead         55    NR
T19)   Wesley                     55    19
T19)   Whitworth                  55    22
22)   Alfred                     52    23
23)   Wash & Jeff                47    21
24)   UW-Stout                   33    NR
25)   Redlands                   26    24

Dropped Out: UW-Whitewater and Thomas More

Also Receiving Votes: Denison (13), Albright (12), Muhlenberg (8), Hobart (3), Wabash (3), Dubuque (2), Framingham St (2), Thomas More (1), UW-Whitewater (1)

Voters: 02 Warhawk, D3MAFAN, desertcat1, FCGrizzliesGrad, HSCTiger74, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, Scots13, and smedindy

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   224    ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  2)
  2)   Mount Union          216    ( 1,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  3)
  3)   UW-Oshkosh           207    ( 2,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4)
  4)   Wheaton              196    ( 3,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  5,  6)
  5)   North Central        185    ( 4,  5,  5,  5,  5,  5,  6,  7,  7)
  6)   St John's            173    ( 4,  6,  6,  6,  7,  8,  8,  8,  8)
  7)   Linfield             171    ( 5,  6,  6,  6,  6,  7,  8,  8, 11)
  8)   Hardin-Simmons       156    ( 7,  7,  7,  9,  9,  9,  9, 10, 11)
  9)   John Carroll         154    ( 5,  7,  8,  8,  8,  9, 10, 10, 15)
T10)   Delaware Valley      123    ( 9, 10, 11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 17)
T10)   Frostburg St         123    ( 7,  9, 10, 11, 11, 12, 15, 16, 20)
12)   Illinois Wesleyan    112    ( 5, 11, 12, 14, 14, 15, 15, 16, 20)
13)   UW-Platteville       108    ( 9, 10, 12, 13, 13, 13, 16, 18, 22)
14)   St Thomas            104    (10, 10, 11, 14, 14, 14, 16, 17, 24)
15)   Johns Hopkins         94    (11, 12, 13, 13, 15, 17, 17, 19, 23)
16)   Wittenberg            85    (12, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 22, --)
17)   Case Western Reserve  67    ( 9, 16, 17, 19, 19, 19, 20, 22, --)
18)   Brockport             59    (14, 14, 15, 18, 21, 22, 22, 24, 25)
T19)   Concordia-Moorhead    55    (16, 17, 17, 18, 19, 21, 23, 23, 25)
T19)   Wesley                55    (12, 14, 15, 20, 20, 22, 25, 25, --)
T19)   Whitworth             55    (10, 16, 19, 21, 21, 22, 23, 23, 24)
22)   Alfred                52    (15, 18, 18, 19, 20, 20, 20, --, --)
23)   Wash & Jeff           47    (13, 17, 18, 20, 21, 21, 25, --, --)
24)   UW-Stout              33    (16, 18, 21, 23, 24, 24, 24, 25, --)
25)   Redlands              26    (19, 19, 21, 22, 23, --, --, --, --)

26)   Denison               13    (13)
27)   Albright              12    (18, 22)
28)   Muhlenberg             8    (21, 24, 25)
T29)   Hobart                 3    (23)
T29)   Wabash                 3    (23)
T31)   Dubuque                2    (24)
T31)   Framingham St          2    (24)
T33)   Thomas More            1    (25)
T33)   UW-Whitewater          1    (25)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I'm interested to hear why there's such a gap between Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead. They've played the same 2 teams and won by almost identical amounts. IWU was a bit better against Nebraska Wesleyan before late scores evened those results up while the Whitewater games were pretty similar. I had IWU 16 and Moorhead 17 on my ballot

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm interested to hear why there's such a gap between Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead. They've played the same 2 teams and won by almost identical amounts. IWU was a bit better against Nebraska Wesleyan before late scores evened those results up while the Whitewater games were pretty similar. I had IWU 16 and Moorhead 17 on my ballot

Good question.   In my case it was largely an omission that I was too tired to go back and correct.  Neither Moorhead or Stout had even been on my radar before Saturday.  I knew they needed to go in, but never found a spot for them until the very end (hence, 24 and 25).  I lowered IWU one slot (13 to 14), but agree with you that there really is no justification for that large a gap. 

Aside from adding Stout and Moorhead, my only major changes in what was a fairly quiet week was dropping both UWW and Thomas More, and sharply raising Brockport and Whitworth (who in retrospect I think I greatly undervalued last week).

[USee]

I'm interested to hear why there's such a gap between Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead. They've played the same 2 teams and won by almost identical amounts. IWU was a bit better against Nebraska Wesleyan before late scores evened those results up while the Whitewater games were pretty similar. I had IWU 16 and Moorhead 17 on my ballot

Good question.   In my case it was largely an omission that I was too tired to go back and correct.  Neither Moorhead or Stout had even been on my radar before Saturday.  I knew they needed to go in, but never found a spot for them until the very end (hence, 24 and 25).  I lowered IWU one slot (13 to 14), but agree with you that there really is no justification for that large a gap. 

Aside from adding Stout and Moorhead, my only major changes in what was a fairly quiet week was dropping both UWW and Thomas More, and sharply raising Brockport and Whitworth (who in retrospect I think I greatly undervalued last week).

Well someone ranked IWU 5 while either not ranking or putting UWW 25.  There is not that big a spread between those two teams.  It was a 1 score game that went down to the last minute.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm interested to hear why there's such a gap between Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead. They've played the same 2 teams and won by almost identical amounts. IWU was a bit better against Nebraska Wesleyan before late scores evened those results up while the Whitewater games were pretty similar. I had IWU 16 and Moorhead 17 on my ballot

Good question.   In my case it was largely an omission that I was too tired to go back and correct.  Neither Moorhead or Stout had even been on my radar before Saturday.  I knew they needed to go in, but never found a spot for them until the very end (hence, 24 and 25).  I lowered IWU one slot (13 to 14), but agree with you that there really is no justification for that large a gap. 

Aside from adding Stout and Moorhead, my only major changes in what was a fairly quiet week was dropping both UWW and Thomas More, and sharply raising Brockport and Whitworth (who in retrospect I think I greatly undervalued last week).

Well someone ranked IWU 5 while either not ranking or putting UWW 25.  There is not that big a spread between those two teams.  It was a 1 score game that went down to the last minute.

But there is now more info than JUST the h-t-h - IWU is 2-0; UWW is 0-2.  I certainly would not place IWU at #5.  (Now, IF they knock off NCC this Saturday, I may have to reconsider! )

[D3MAFAN]

I'm interested to hear why there's such a gap between Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead. They've played the same 2 teams and won by almost identical amounts. IWU was a bit better against Nebraska Wesleyan before late scores evened those results up while the Whitewater games were pretty similar. I had IWU 16 and Moorhead 17 on my ballot

Good question.   In my case it was largely an omission that I was too tired to go back and correct.  Neither Moorhead or Stout had even been on my radar before Saturday.  I knew they needed to go in, but never found a spot for them until the very end (hence, 24 and 25).  I lowered IWU one slot (13 to 14), but agree with you that there really is no justification for that large a gap. 

Aside from adding Stout and Moorhead, my only major changes in what was a fairly quiet week was dropping both UWW and Thomas More, and sharply raising Brockport and Whitworth (who in retrospect I think I greatly undervalued last week).

Well someone ranked IWU 5 while either not ranking or putting UWW 25.  There is not that big a spread between those two teams.  It was a 1 score game that went down to the last minute.

But there is now more info than JUST the h-t-h - IWU is 2-0; UWW is 0-2.  I certainly would not place IWU at #5.  (Now, IF they knock off NCC this Saturday, I may have to reconsider! )

I agree, if they knock off NCC, they will definitely crack the Top 10 if not the Top 5.

[USee]

I'm interested to hear why there's such a gap between Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead. They've played the same 2 teams and won by almost identical amounts. IWU was a bit better against Nebraska Wesleyan before late scores evened those results up while the Whitewater games were pretty similar. I had IWU 16 and Moorhead 17 on my ballot

Good question.   In my case it was largely an omission that I was too tired to go back and correct.  Neither Moorhead or Stout had even been on my radar before Saturday.  I knew they needed to go in, but never found a spot for them until the very end (hence, 24 and 25).  I lowered IWU one slot (13 to 14), but agree with you that there really is no justification for that large a gap. 

Aside from adding Stout and Moorhead, my only major changes in what was a fairly quiet week was dropping both UWW and Thomas More, and sharply raising Brockport and Whitworth (who in retrospect I think I greatly undervalued last week).

Well someone ranked IWU 5 while either not ranking or putting UWW 25.  There is not that big a spread between those two teams.  It was a 1 score game that went down to the last minute.

But there is now more info than JUST the h-t-h - IWU is 2-0; UWW is 0-2.  I certainly would not place IWU at #5.  (Now, IF they knock off NCC this Saturday, I may have to reconsider! )

Of course that's true and presumably their records are reflected in their rankings, certainly that's the case for UWW. Right now we don't know if IWU is much better than we thought and/or UWW is much worse, likely somewhere in between. IWU played Nebraska Wesleyan at home, which tells us nothing really. Having UWW unranked or ranked very low (23-25) makes sense. IWU, based on what we know, ranked in mid to low teens, seems right. #5? I don't see it. Another way to look at, based on current info, IWU won at home against two unranked teams and UWW lost by less than 1 score on the road to two ranked teams.

Wheaton (19 starters and 70 players on the roster from last year) and NCC (18 starters return) return mostly the same team that won @IWU last year. While I think IWU is definitely better than I thought this year, there is no evidence that tells me they are going to win on the road against those two teams when they didn't beat them at home last year. Now, that doesn't mean it won't happen, but it isn't rational to me to rank IWU ahead of either of those two (or in the top 5) because they beat a now unranked UWW team.