D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

[USee]

Bleed,

Part of the issue is you have to put someone at 5. Who is below them that you would put there? That's and issue for the fan poll as well as the d3.com voters I suspect. Remember this is a poll for this year and while it's a reasonable argument to look at history, this isn't a fan poll for the top 5 programs or a top 25 for playoff success, its a top 25 for teams on the field this year. It's one reason I don't stray into the top 25 poll, I don't feel I can do enough work to get a good feel for all those teams.

[bleedpurple]

Bleed,

Part of the issue is you have to put someone at 5. Who is below them that you would put there? That's and issue for the fan poll as well as the d3.com voters I suspect. Remember this is a poll for this year and while it's a reasonable argument to look at history, this isn't a fan poll for the top 5 programs or a top 25 for playoff success, its a top 25 for teams on the field this year. It's one reason I don't stray into the top 25 poll, I don't feel I can do enough work to get a good feel for all those teams.

I think the issues you raise are what have really caught my interest in how polls shake out. Poll dynamics are intriguing. For example, even though the poll has Frostburg at 5, only 2 of 9 voters had them that high and no one had them any higher.

Very true that this is a poll of this year...sort of. While it isn't (and shouldn't be) a poll of "programs", "this year" doesn't seem to be a complete vacuum, either. If it were, I doubt victories over Stevenson, TCNJ, and Rowan would propel anyone to the Top 5. With a lack of data and a desire not to drag too much of previous years' results into the equation, if I were a voter, I think I would revert to the simple subjective test: who I think would win if two teams played. I think Wesley, Hardin Simmons, Whitewater, and St. John's would all beat Frosty. I think Oshkosh, John Carroll, and Wheaton would all beat Frosty as well, but they all have a loss, so that has to limit their ceiling.  So I think I would slot Frostburg at 9th and try to decide between this poll's current 6-9 as the 5-8 teams.

I'm not at all complaining about the Frostburg at 5. It was just odd to me, seeing that ranking in two different polls and not really seeing the resume' to back it up (in my opinion) and exacerbated by blowouts in each of the last three years.

[Pat Coleman]

Bleed,

Part of the issue is you have to put someone at 5. Who is below them that you would put there? That's and issue for the fan poll as well as the d3.com voters I suspect. Remember this is a poll for this year and while it's a reasonable argument to look at history, this isn't a fan poll for the top 5 programs or a top 25 for playoff success, its a top 25 for teams on the field this year. It's one reason I don't stray into the top 25 poll, I don't feel I can do enough work to get a good feel for all those teams.

I think the issues you raise are what have really caught my interest in how polls shake out. Poll dynamics are intriguing. For example, even though the poll has Frostburg at 5, only 2 of 9 voters had them that high and no one had them any higher.

Very true that this is a poll of this year...sort of. While it isn't (and shouldn't be) a poll of "programs", "this year" doesn't seem to be a complete vacuum, either. If it were, I doubt victories over Stevenson, TCNJ, and Rowan would propel anyone to the Top 5. With a lack of data and a desire not to drag too much of previous years' results into the equation, if I were a voter, I think I would revert to the simple subjective test: who I think would win if two teams played. I think Wesley, Hardin Simmons, Whitewater, and St. John's would all beat Frosty. I think Oshkosh, John Carroll, and Wheaton would all beat Frosty as well, but they all have a loss, so that has to limit their ceiling.  So I think I would slot Frostburg at 9th and try to decide between this poll's current 6-9 as the 5-8 teams.

I'm not at all complaining about the Frostburg at 5. It was just odd to me, seeing that ranking in two different polls and not really seeing the resume' to back it up (in my opinion) and exacerbated by blowouts in each of the last three years.

If getting blown out by Mount Union was a disqualifier for the No. 5 spot, we'd have a hard time filling that position.

[bleedpurple]

Bleed,

Part of the issue is you have to put someone at 5. Who is below them that you would put there? That's and issue for the fan poll as well as the d3.com voters I suspect. Remember this is a poll for this year and while it's a reasonable argument to look at history, this isn't a fan poll for the top 5 programs or a top 25 for playoff success, its a top 25 for teams on the field this year. It's one reason I don't stray into the top 25 poll, I don't feel I can do enough work to get a good feel for all those teams.

I think the issues you raise are what have really caught my interest in how polls shake out. Poll dynamics are intriguing. For example, even though the poll has Frostburg at 5, only 2 of 9 voters had them that high and no one had them any higher.

Very true that this is a poll of this year...sort of. While it isn't (and shouldn't be) a poll of "programs", "this year" doesn't seem to be a complete vacuum, either. If it were, I doubt victories over Stevenson, TCNJ, and Rowan would propel anyone to the Top 5. With a lack of data and a desire not to drag too much of previous years' results into the equation, if I were a voter, I think I would revert to the simple subjective test: who I think would win if two teams played. I think Wesley, Hardin Simmons, Whitewater, and St. John's would all beat Frosty. I think Oshkosh, John Carroll, and Wheaton would all beat Frosty as well, but they all have a loss, so that has to limit their ceiling.  So I think I would slot Frostburg at 9th and try to decide between this poll's current 6-9 as the 5-8 teams.

I'm not at all complaining about the Frostburg at 5. It was just odd to me, seeing that ranking in two different polls and not really seeing the resume' to back it up (in my opinion) and exacerbated by blowouts in each of the last three years.

If getting blown out by Mount Union was a disqualifier for the No. 5 spot, we'd have a hard time filling that position.

True enough, but getting blown out by 30 plus by someone three years in a row, two of them by a decidedly non-Mount team, might be.  Or alternatively, if 30 point plus losses to Wesley are "forgivable" maybe the Wolverines deserve to be there. Either way, I'm not complaining. I'm more interested in discussing to further see the different ways teams are viewed and ranked. The data I am using are from past seasons, so I know there are probably issues with that as well. With Frostburg, I'm trying to see what transpired to launch them from 10ish to 5. They lost two games last year, including yielding the 70 to Mount.  They lost to Wesley by 36 in 2016 and didn't even make the playoffs. And now they are 5th. They did rock Wittenberg and W&J in the playoffs last year. They also beat a 7-4 Salisbury team by a TD last year. Maybe the state of D-III football right now is that is enough to be #5 in this moment of time. I know it's all moot because everything gets sorted out on the field. Just interesting conversation.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Bleed,

Part of the issue is you have to put someone at 5. Who is below them that you would put there? That's and issue for the fan poll as well as the d3.com voters I suspect. Remember this is a poll for this year and while it's a reasonable argument to look at history, this isn't a fan poll for the top 5 programs or a top 25 for playoff success, its a top 25 for teams on the field this year. It's one reason I don't stray into the top 25 poll, I don't feel I can do enough work to get a good feel for all those teams.

I think the issues you raise are what have really caught my interest in how polls shake out. Poll dynamics are intriguing. For example, even though the poll has Frostburg at 5, only 2 of 9 voters had them that high and no one had them any higher.

Very true that this is a poll of this year...sort of. While it isn't (and shouldn't be) a poll of "programs", "this year" doesn't seem to be a complete vacuum, either. If it were, I doubt victories over Stevenson, TCNJ, and Rowan would propel anyone to the Top 5. With a lack of data and a desire not to drag too much of previous years' results into the equation, if I were a voter, I think I would revert to the simple subjective test: who I think would win if two teams played. I think Wesley, Hardin Simmons, Whitewater, and St. John's would all beat Frosty. I think Oshkosh, John Carroll, and Wheaton would all beat Frosty as well, but they all have a loss, so that has to limit their ceiling.  So I think I would slot Frostburg at 9th and try to decide between this poll's current 6-9 as the 5-8 teams.

I'm not at all complaining about the Frostburg at 5. It was just odd to me, seeing that ranking in two different polls and not really seeing the resume' to back it up (in my opinion) and exacerbated by blowouts in each of the last three years.

If getting blown out by Mount Union was a disqualifier for the No. 5 spot, we'd have a hard time filling that position.

True enough, but getting blown out by 30 plus by someone three years in a row, two of them by a decidedly non-Mount team, might be.  Or alternatively, if 30 point plus losses to Wesley are "forgivable" maybe the Wolverines deserve to be there. Either way, I'm not complaining. I'm more interested in discussing to further see the different ways teams are viewed and ranked. The data I am using are from past seasons, so I know there are probably issues with that as well. With Frostburg, I'm trying to see what transpired to launch them from 10ish to 5. They lost two games last year, including yielding the 70 to Mount.  They lost to Wesley by 36 in 2016 and didn't even make the playoffs. And now they are 5th. They did rock Wittenberg and W&J in the playoffs last year. They also beat a 7-4 Salisbury team by a TD last year. Maybe the state of D-III football right now is that is enough to be #5 in this moment of time. I know it's all moot because everything gets sorted out on the field. Just interesting conversation.

I think you are looking to far in the past, I have seen the worst of Frostburg State and now the good. In year's past, this would have been Salisbury Poll position after coming off a tremendous playoff run, except Frostburg hasn't loss that early season game. I do believe some programs have higher ceilings than others, however current data and last year's most recent data, I believe this Frostburg team is really good, we will have more clarity after this weekend, but a poll position of 5 is not really that much to argue about these days. I do believe the NJAC top can compete in any conference, not saying they would all go undefeated, but they would be respectable. However, saying that this Frostburg team loss to Wesley by such and such amount two year's ago, I knew with the new coaching staff and the young guys that were being recruited a few year's back, they were going to surpass us in a year, which they did. Not saying they are on the Mount Union and/or championship Whitewater team Salisbury faced in the past, but they earned there respect the last few year's and are currently trending up. I think these are the up year's for them. We won't know if it is sustainable due their departure to D2.

[Pat Coleman]

Them at 5 is more about North Central losing and Linfield losing earlier. Frostburg started the season at 8 -- high, for sure, but not unreasonable considering last season's finish.

[bleedpurple]

Them at 5 is more about North Central losing and Linfield losing earlier. Frostburg started the season at 8 -- high, for sure, but not unreasonable considering last season's finish.

That's a great point. It is hard to argue about an opening 8 seed for someone who made it to the quarters the previous year. And with the North Central, Linfield, (and probably UW-0) losses, it makes sense. And no one could expect them to do more than what they've done against their opponents this year.  You can only beat the team that lines up across from you.  And they have done that convincingly.

[smedindy]

This week's going to be revelatory...I hope!

[bleedpurple]

Well, hard to argue with being 5 now, when you just beat number 6!  I guess I just had to wait until Saturday to find out why Frostburg was 5th!  If nothing else, it's a lot easier to feel better about them at 5 with a "signature" type win.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I kept Frostburg at 6th, dropping Wesley from 5th to 7th.  UWW jumped from 9th to 5th on my ballot.  To shut out UWO is eerily reminiscent of the Stagg Bowl Warhawks of old!  I also moved UMHB ahead of UMU for the first time this season; I'm not certain even the Raiders could have shut-out HSU!

[02 Warhawk]

I kept Frostburg at 6th, dropping Wesley from 5th to 7th.  UWW jumped from 9th to 5th on my ballot.  To shut out UWO is eerily reminiscent of the Stagg Bowl Warhawks of old!  I also moved UMHB ahead of UMU for the first time this season; I'm not certain even the Raiders could have shut-out HSU!

I moved UWW from 9 to 7, mostly because Wesley and Hardin-Simmons lost in front of them in my poll. UWW does have a Stagg Bowl quality defense, but their offense isn't quite at the same level which is why they aren't in my top 5. I have St. John's #4, right behind UST #3. I guess I'll see this weekend if St. John's can keep up with UST, making my #4 ranking of them seem ahead of the curve. 

I tossed around the idea last week of putting Wabash in at #25, but I thought to myself I'll wait and see how they do against a pretty good Denison team. I think I made the right choice leaving them off.

I think I'm the only one on the Monmouth bandwagon, having them at #23. Their only loss was to Wheaton, which isn't too bad considering NCC was also blown out by Wheaton. That was followed up by a (semi-)solid win vs. Wartburg. After that Monmouth has gone of win their next three games by a combined total of 141-0. They haven't given up a point in over a month now.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'd be happy to join the Monmouth bandwagon, but the three teams they beat 141-0 are teams any good team should shutout.  And they won't face any decent competition until the MWC title game.  They should get to 8-1 and probably still won't be on my ballot.

And I have a bias towards Monmouth.  I have a niece who is both physically and mentally challenged.  She is in an assisted living apartment in Monmouth, and her caretakers are mostly Monmouth students and/or Monmouth affiliated.  The only season since the 2000s started that IWU beat both Wheaton and NCC in the same year, the Alex Tanney-led Scots beat us in the first round of the playoffs.  So I would love to vote for them, but they've got to beat someone! 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Everyone actually submitted their ballots in a timely manner. Good work everyone

2018 WEEK 6 TOP 25 FAN POLL

Rank	Team	Points	Prev
1)	Mount Union (6)	222	1
2)	Mary Hardin-Baylor (3)	219	2
3)	St Thomas	204	3
4)	Brockport	198	4
5)	Frostburg St	182	5
6)	St John's	179	7
7)	UW-Whitewater	178	T8
8)	Wesley	154	6
9)	John Carroll	145	12
10)	Wash & Jeff	137	11
11)	Hardin-Simmons	128	T8
12)	Wheaton	106	13
13)	Wittenberg	101	14
T14)	Illinois Wesleyan	91	15
T14)	UW-Oshkosh	91	10
16)	Berry	83	T16
17)	North Central	82	T16
18)	Whitworth	80	20
19)	Trine	74	19
20)	RPI	50	T21
T21)	Case Western Reserve	43	T16
T21)	Muhlenberg	43	23
23)	Delaware Valley	37	T21
24)	Central	19	NR
25)	Salisbury	18	NR

Dropped Out: #24 Ithaca, #25 Wabash

Also Receiving Votes: Linfield 13, UW-Platteville 12, Johns Hopkins 9, Montclair St 6, Thomas More 6, Marietta 4, UW-La Crosse 4, Monmouth 3, Randolph-Macon 3, Millikin 1

Voters: 02 Warhawk, bluestreak66, desertcat1, FCGG, MANDGSU, Mr. Ypsi, NCF, Oline89, and smedindy

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

  1)   Mount Union          222     ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  2,  2,  2)
  2)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   219     ( 1,  1,  1,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2,  2)
  3)   St Thomas            204     ( 3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  3,  4,  5)
  4)   Brockport            198     ( 3,  3,  4,  4,  4,  4,  4,  5,  5)
  5)   Frostburg St         182     ( 5,  5,  5,  6,  6,  6,  6,  6,  7)
  6)   St John's            179     ( 4,  5,  6,  6,  6,  6,  7,  7,  8)
  7)   UW-Whitewater        178     ( 4,  4,  5,  5,  7,  7,  7,  8,  9)
  8)   Wesley               154     ( 7,  7,  8,  8,  8,  9, 10, 10, 13)
  9)   John Carroll         145     ( 7,  8,  8,  9,  9,  9, 10, 11, 18)
10)   Wash & Jeff          137     ( 8,  9, 10, 10, 11, 11, 12, 13, 13)
11)   Hardin-Simmons       128     ( 8,  9,  9, 10, 10, 11, 12, 16, 21)
12)   Wheaton              106     (11, 12, 12, 12, 14, 14, 14, 15, 24)
13)   Wittenberg           101     (10, 11, 12, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, --)
T14)   Illinois Wesleyan     91     ( 9, 13, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 20, 20)
T14)   UW-Oshkosh            91     (11, 11, 12, 13, 16, 16, 18, 20, --)
16)   Berry                 83     (11, 13, 15, 15, 16, 18, 18, 21, 24)
17)   North Central         82     (14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 16, 18, 19, --)
18)   Whitworth             80     (10, 13, 16, 17, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22)
19)   Trine                 74     (14, 15, 16, 17, 17, 18, 20, 20, 23)
20)   RPI                   50     (14, 17, 20, 20, 21, 21, 22, 24, 25)
T21)   Case Western Reserve  43     (12, 17, 19, 19, 21, 25, --, --, --)
T21)   Muhlenberg            43     (16, 17, 19, 22, 22, 23, 23, 24, 25)
23)   Delaware Valley       37     (13, 18, 19, 22, 22, 25, --, --, --)
24)   Central               19     (19, 19, 21, --, --, --, --, --, --)
25)   Salisbury             18     (19, 21, 23, 23, --, --, --, --, --)

26)   Linfield              13     (21, 23, 23, 24)
27)   UW-Platteville        12     (15, 25)
28)   Johns Hopkins          9     (22, 22, 25)
T29)   Montclair St           6     (20)
T29)   Thomas More            6     (24, 24, 25, 25)
T31)   Marietta               4     (22)
T31)   UW-La Crosse           4     (24, 24)
T33)   Monmouth               3     (23)
T33)   Randolph-Macon         3     (23)
35)   Millikin               1     (25)

[02 Warhawk]

I'd be happy to join the Monmouth bandwagon, but the three teams they beat 141-0 are teams any good team should shutout.  And they won't face any decent competition until the MWC title game.  They should get to 8-1 and probably still won't be on my ballot.

And I have a bias towards Monmouth.  I have a niece who is both physically and mentally challenged.  She is in an assisted living apartment in Monmouth, and her caretakers are mostly Monmouth students and/or Monmouth affiliated.  The only season since the 2000s started that IWU beat both Wheaton and NCC in the same year, the Alex Tanney-led Scots beat us in the first round of the playoffs.  So I would love to vote for them, but they've got to beat someone!

Same could be said about Oshkosh and NCC.   

I get what you're saying though, no worries.