Pool C

[Mr. Ypsi]

As I see it, there are only 3 logical possibilities (since we all 'know' that Mount and UWW will ultimately get #1s )

a.  Wesley 'east', UMHB 'south', UMU ''north', :UWW 'west'.
b.  UMU 'east, Wesley 'south', NCC, 'north', UWW 'west'
c.  UMU 'east', Wesley 'south', UWW 'north', St. Thomas 'west'

Based on past years (they could have 'always' moved Wesley 'east') and the SoS of UMHB (and geography), I'll regard option A as the most unlikely.

That seems to leave it as a head-to-head battle - who is more worthy of the 4th #1 - NCC or the Tommies?

As a CCIW partisan, I (of course) will take NCC.  

Comments?
.

[d-train]

Comments?

I'd vote for option C...which is really the only connection I 'see' to Pool C?

[Mr. Ypsi]

I've been trying to sort out St. Thomas and NCC by the criteria, but it is tough!

St. Thomas has already finished their season (though opponents still have a week to go); NCC finishes the season against 2-7 North Park, so SoS will take a hit.  Right now, NCC leads in SoS by .561 to .538 - they should retain a very slight lead, but nothing crucial.

Against regionally-ranked opponents, they are each 1-0 (NCC downed Wheaton; the Tommies downed Bethel).  It might be huge if either St. John's (doubtful) or IWU (better chance) slipped into the regional rankings.

They have no common opponents, though UWEC is a 'second-hand' common opponent.  While NCC beat UWEC 20-6, UWEC beat SJU by 3, while STU only beat SJU by 1.  That's a definite stretch of the criteria, but, hey, I'm not finding much here to go on!

Overall, from what I can find, NCC is probably the slight favorite, but only slight.

Possibly the bigger factor would be NOT moving UWW retains more of the 'regional' emphasis!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Comments?

I'd vote for option C...which is really the only connection I 'see' to Pool C?

Good point.  Since it seems unlikely we will soon see a #1 seed who is not undefeated, this was NOT a pool C topic.  But we don't yet have a thread for playoffs in general (or #1 seeds in particular), and I dislike opening new threads with so many already going, so I thought this might be the place to catch interested posters.

[d-train]

Good point.  Since it seems unlikely we will soon see a #1 seed who is not undefeated, this was NOT a pool C topic.  But we don't yet have a thread for playoffs in general (or #1 seeds in particular), and I dislike opening new threads with so many already going, so I thought this might be the place to catch interested posters.

Just giving you a hard time.     

I'd say your instincts are correct.  It'll be option B or C above.  Moving Mt. East makes a lot of sense.  But moving UWW doesn't add much (if any) benefit - considering the near toss-up between NCC and St. T.  I think there are exactly eight traditional 'West' teams in the field this year, with little reason to get 'creative'.

[Ralph Turner]

How does the committee handle a real Top 6 for four regions?

A strong NCC may keep UWW out of the north.

The other question will be where the Pool C bids are given.  If there are 2 Pool C bids given to the West and to the North, then there may be the need to move MUC to the East to help with the bracketing.  DPU and Thomas More also are geographically proximate to the North Region.  They probably need to the "kept" in the South Region.

I really have no idea how the brackets will shape up.

I just won't bet against 2 Top 10 teams from Texas being paired in the first round.

[Mr. Ypsi]

How does the committee handle a real Top 6 for four regions?

A strong NCC may keep UWW out of the north.

The two times that UWW was transplanted to the 'north', they won the Stagg!  We thought losing Mt. Union was a 'gift' - some gift!   (In 2008, UMU went 'east', but UWW did not come 'north'; Wheaton won the 'north', UMU won the Stagg.)

So Mt. Union might be hoping UWW stays in the 'west' also - they've never won the Stagg from there!

[Not that any of the 32 teams have thrown in the towel just yet. ]

[Frank Rossi]

St. Thomas has already finished their season (though opponents still have a week to go); NCC finishes the season against 2-7 North Park, so SoS will take a hit.  Right now, NCC leads in SoS by .561 to .538 - they should retain a very slight lead, but nothing crucial.

By my quick math, the SoS will take an extreme hit because of the playing of a .222 team.  It drops the OWP by at least .031 -- take 2/3 of that drop for about .021.  The OOWP currently drops, too by about .002 points.  1/3 of that is about .001.  So, other opponents' play Saturday could easily wipe out ANY SoS advantage.

[d-train]

So Mt. Union might be hoping UWW stays in the 'west' also - they've never won the Stagg from there!

Maybe...but Linfield, Pacific Lutheran, and St. John's have. 

[02 Warhawk]

So Mt. Union might be hoping UWW stays in the 'west' also - they've never won the Stagg from there!

Maybe...but Linfield, Pacific Lutheran, and St. John's have. 

I'm kind of hoping UWW lands in the West. I want UWW to avoid NCC as long as possible. I wouldn't mind forcing Linfield to travel all the way to Wisconsin again.

[MonroviaCat]

So Mt. Union might be hoping UWW stays in the 'west' also - they've never won the Stagg from there!

Maybe...but Linfield, Pacific Lutheran, and St. John's have. 

I'm kind of hoping UWW lands in the West. I want UWW to avoid NCC as long as possible. I wouldn't mind forcing Linfield to travel all the way to Wisconsin again.

Seems like Linfeld and UWW make it interesting whether it's in Oregon or Wisconsin...though the outcome never seems right to me

[criswyly]

This could be the year Linfield does a number on UWW.  We know it's possible....most teams can only hope it's possible.

[K-Mack]

Ralph,
Going into this weeks games, how do you see the Pool C bids?

I have been on the road.  When I settle down, I will check out K-Mack's ATN!

I think that we get only 1 Pool C bid in the South if HSU goes 9-1.

Sorry. I had to cut it off last week before I could finish the Pool C stuff, and I thought the discussion was lively enough that you didn't need me anyway.

This week I'll (almost) definitely do it because I think it is necessary to have that road map going into Saturday.

[K-Mack]

Comments?

I'd vote for option C...which is really the only connection I 'see' to Pool C?

Good point.  Since it seems unlikely we will soon see a #1 seed who is not undefeated, this was NOT a pool C topic.  But we don't yet have a thread for playoffs in general (or #1 seeds in particular), and I dislike opening new threads with so many already going, so I thought this might be the place to catch interested posters.

You got me.

And your point about Wesley is right on; that has been on the table before (but not always; remember the year Wesley got a 7 seed and was sent to Muhl in Round 1?) and has not happened.

I thought St. Lawrence would be a distance anchor, but it appears they are just less than 500 miles from both Mount Union and Wesley. And I guess even if Maine Maritime is in, they just go to NJAC champ. Especially if it's Cortland?

I'm just rambling off top.

[K-Mack]

Pool C is so strong this year that two teams who are undefeated right now (Wittenberg and Trine) still need to win to preserve their playoff hopes.

Without a major wave of losses, neither has a shot in Pool C as currently constituted.