WBB: Empire 8

[7express]

Yikes!  Outside of Union (who just had their 7 game winning streak snapped Friday) that non E8 schedule is bad.  Would've liked their chances more had they been able to defeat New Paltz (currently unbeaten lost by 5), St. Lawrence (8-3 lost by 7) andMary Washington (non region 9-5 lost by 6).  As it stands now even 1 win over Ithaca may not even be enough.  Let's say they split with Ithaca, and win all their other regular season games that leaves them 22-4.  A gaudy record, yes but who they have beaten??  Union may not be very good when the seasons ends (just lost at home to a 4-8 team and in LL play still have William Smith (8-4), St. Lawrence (8-3) and Vassar (8-2) to play twice).  Of all the other teams on the list St. Joes is likely the only one to finish above .500, but that's mainly because they play in a USCAA conference, so most of their games are againbst non D-3 opponents.  Think Oneonta maight turn it around too and at least get it close.
But anyways to make a long story short can you really select a team that theoritcally could only have 1 win at seasons end against an above .500 team when there's going to be a lot of teams in contention from the Great Lakes, West and Northeast at seasons end??

[Bombers798891]

Yikes!  Outside of Union (who just had their 7 game winning streak snapped Friday) that non E8 schedule is bad.  Would've liked their chances more had they been able to defeat New Paltz (currently unbeaten lost by 5), St. Lawrence (8-3 lost by 7) andMary Washington (non region 9-5 lost by 6).  As it stands now even 1 win over Ithaca may not even be enough.  Let's say they split with Ithaca, and win all their other regular season games that leaves them 22-4.  A gaudy record, yes but who they have beaten??  Union may not be very good when the seasons ends (just lost at home to a 4-8 team and in LL play still have William Smith (8-4), St. Lawrence (8-3) and Vassar (8-2) to play twice).  Of all the other teams on the list St. Joes is likely the only one to finish above .500, but that's mainly because they play in a USCAA conference, so most of their games are againbst non D-3 opponents.  Think Oneonta maight turn it around too and at least get it close.
But anyways to make a long story short can you really select a team that theoritcally could only have 1 win at seasons end against an above .500 team when there's going to be a lot of teams in contention from the Great Lakes, West and Northeast at seasons end??

Yeah that would be tough....I mean, I think 22-5 (assuming an E8 finals loss to Ithaca) would be able to get them in, but that's as far as I'd comfortably go.

Stevens has played a rough schedule, but they've probably lost their five best OOC games, all but one by double digits. I'd like them more if they hadn't lost to Utica, whose best conference win was against Sage (Who lost to Elmira by 12).

[Roundball999]

Yikes!  Outside of Union (who just had their 7 game winning streak snapped Friday) that non E8 schedule is bad.  Would've liked their chances more had they been able to defeat New Paltz (currently unbeaten lost by 5), St. Lawrence (8-3 lost by 7) andMary Washington (non region 9-5 lost by 6).  As it stands now even 1 win over Ithaca may not even be enough.  Let's say they split with Ithaca, and win all their other regular season games that leaves them 22-4.  A gaudy record, yes but who they have beaten??  Union may not be very good when the seasons ends (just lost at home to a 4-8 team and in LL play still have William Smith (8-4), St. Lawrence (8-3) and Vassar (8-2) to play twice).  Of all the other teams on the list St. Joes is likely the only one to finish above .500, but that's mainly because they play in a USCAA conference, so most of their games are againbst non D-3 opponents.  Think Oneonta maight turn it around too and at least get it close.
But anyways to make a long story short can you really select a team that theoritcally could only have 1 win at seasons end against an above .500 team when there's going to be a lot of teams in contention from the Great Lakes, West and Northeast at seasons end??

Yeah that would be tough....I mean, I think 22-5 (assuming an E8 finals loss to Ithaca) would be able to get them in, but that's as far as I'd comfortably go.

Hard to tell, D3 selection system is crazy sometimes.  Hope finished 22-5 last year including a win over Ithaca, lost to top 5 Calvin in the league tournament final, and didn't get a bid.  But there were a bunch of strong teams in the Great Lakes region last year, that didn't help.

[Bombers798891]

Bombers put together an insane second half and blow out William Smith 69-38. Ithaca outscores WS 38-11 in the second half, and holds them scoreless the final seven and a half minutes. Seven Bombers score at least 7 points. Ithaca continues to roll

[Bombers798891]

Man, Ithaca plays some disgusting defense. Allowing 46 PPG coming in, they only allow 29 to Elmira in another easy win.

[Bombers798891]

Bombers top Hartwick 53-45 and it looks like the E8 champ will be decided on Feb. 8 when Ithaca travels to the Wick. Fisher is making a strong run, having won four in a row overall. Stevens I just don't get. They lose by two to Hartwick, but then by 37 to Ithaca? And then they squeak by Elmira?

[7express]

Not only could that matchup Feb 8 decide the conference, it could potentially decide a pool C spot as well, only time will tell.

[Bombers798891]

Man, the E8 turned into an absolute disaster this season. Everyone but Ithaca and Hartwick is just mediocre. Nazareth is 8-14 overall and they can still make the conference tournament. Yes, a Nazareth team that has won three games by more than three points all season can still qualify for the postseason.

My best guess how the tournament shakes out:

Ithaca 23-2 (13-1): They've already beaten both Houghton and Utica by 20 on the road. I doubt things will change much in these two in Ithaca. Naz could be playing for their postseason lives, but I think they lose to Fisher, meaning they'll be playing out the string.

Hartwick: 19-6 (11-3): I think they beat Fisher and Alfred to finish strong. Could 20-7 get them a Pool C bid?

Utica: 13-12 (8-6): Provided the Pioneers handle their business against Elmira, they're looking at the #3 spot, and a rematch with a Hartwick team they've already beaten

That leaves the last spot to Fisher or Stevens. I think Fisher beats Naz and loses to the Wick, putting them at 7-6. Stevens will beat Alfred to go to 7-6, setting up a win and get in game between the Ducks and the Cardinals on the 16th in Fisher. The first game went to overtime before Stevens pulled away.

How big of a game is this? Consider Ithaca's results against the two squads:

Fisher: W 48-43 (OT), L 59-63
Stevens: W 92-55, W 55-48

No question who the Bombers would rather face.

I think the Cardinals—who have been playing better—take it at home and get the last spot

[7express]

Hartwick: 19-6 (11-3): I think they beat Fisher and Alfred to finish strong. Could 20-7 get them a Pool C bid?
-----------------------------------------

With their schedule and the conference not likely.  Its good they play in the East though so it's possible.  If they were a couple hundred miles to the East and played in VT or MA instead of NY they'd have no chance. I mean in the East outside of the big 3 of Ithaca, Rochester & New Paltz what else is there?? Oswego state was 4th, but they've dropped 3 of 4 to fall out.  Geneseo was 5th.  They have a nice win over William Smith a blowout of New Paltz, but that's about it.  They have a game tomorrow against 18-2 Keuka, but really does an 18-2 team out of the NEAC maybe the worst conference in division 3 help you at all in the SOS??  St. Lawrence (6th) has lost 2 of 4 to blow their lead in the LL.  Hartwick (8th) since they lost to Ithaca twice have to win the E-8 tournament to get in.  Vassar (7th) i actually think has the most to gain.   They've won 6 in a row, are 19-4 overall (no quality wins however), but they finish the season with 2 road games: Friday @ Skidmore (12-10) a team that pounded them at home last month and Saturday @ Union (13-9). 
I think its safe to assume New Paltz, Rochester & Ithaca are locks.  I think those are going to be the only 3 East teams in the field, but if Rochester were to win @ Emory and snag the UAA automatic bid it could potentially open a 4th spot in the East, but that's probably going to Geneseo or Vassar, imo.

[Bombers798891]

Yeah not a surprise. Just an awful couple of years for the E8.

It's tough to gauge IC. They've got the narrow road win over Rochester, and a tough loss on the road to the Atlantic #3, but that record still has a lot of help from the conference.

[Bombers798891]

Bombers win 64-54 in a game that was not as close as the score would indicate. Ithaca led by 15 at the half and by 21 with 9:25 to go. Fisher never gets closer than 8.

[Bombers798891]

Unreal...the Bombers turn in a defensive performance that tops anything they've thrown out this year and beat Hartwick 47-29. Up 18-16 at the break, Ithaca hold Hartwick to 7 points over the next 16 minutes. The Hawks shoot 12-of-48 from the floor, and Ithaca rolls.

The Bombers just play suffocating defense, and it's clear no one in the E8 can match them. Ithaca gets a school record 25th win

[7express]

I think its pretty safe to say Ithaca is going to be the only E8 team represented in the big tournament.  Will be very interesting to see who they go up against, there's a bunch of teams I'd like to see them play which could turen out to be potential great matchups (Bridgewater state, USM, New Paltz, Montclair or Vassar).

Edit: You can scratch Vassar off that list, had no idea they lost in the semi's.  I doubt they get in now.

[7express]

Ithaca up to Maine to face Colby-Sawyer USM (host) and Smith is the other matchup.

Don't know much about Colby-Sawyer except I think they've lost once since December 8 I think and that was the last day of the regular season.   USM will be a bit of a bigger problem.  1 loss on the year, went through a pretty good LEC conference at 13-1 (5 of the 8 teams finished above .500), undefeated at home in the Hill gymnasium in Gorham and get an awfully lot of favorable whistles and calls up there so don't be surprised if Ithaca is on the short end of the stick, it's happened to Western Connecticut all too often.  As for the team itself go pretty good (10+), but not as good as the starters.  Spread the floor extremely well all 5 on the court can score from everywhere.  Not very tall, but they box out and play extremely good defense.  Should be a fun matchup next Sat if it does indeed happen.

[Bombers798891]

I'm a tad skeptical of the favorable whistles argument, only because their free throw disparity on the season (+13) and foul call disparity (+10) are pretty much normal, especially when you consider winning teams will often get fouled at the end of regulation. I'm not saying you're wrong (you've probably seen them more than me) but it doesn't seem to be borne out in a way that really impacts the scoreboard. In fact, last year, they shot 64 FEWER free throws, and were called for 48 more fouls. Maybe it's a home/road thing that I'm not going to break down, but I don't see a giant disparity looming

Honestly, Ithaca's a mystery to me. The conference's weakness gives me no idea how great IC is on a national scale, and this is a team that probably could be 27-0 right now. I think they have the depth to win, but who knows?