MBB: Northwest Conference

[LogShow]

WW does need to get by CMS first...really looking forward to listening to the game tomorrow!

[bbaddict]

Assuming that Whitworth gets past CMS on Thursday, I pick Whitworth over UPS, simply because in the NWC playoffs, it's Whitworth 2-0 and UPS 1-1.   Also if you look at the scores, it's Whitworth PF164/PA146 and UPS PF166/PA164.   Defense will win the game.  Whitworth has adjusted their defense since the regular season.  I think UPS peaked early and Whitworth is just getting started.

[nwhoops1903]

It is my understanding that any player who gets a vote gets included in the HM section.  So how Montgomery got 0 is sad.  Truth is that big Nate most likely wasn't the game breaker in conference games in the eyes of the other coaches that he has been in playoffs.  I found it interesting that no player from PLU was named and they were a better team than last year. 


WW might be on the rise but no way would I say UPS is declining.  They are too solid, too mature, too good.  WW is what has been said already, FAMILIAR.  UPS doesn't have anything that WW hasn't seen from them.  The same is true the other way and so Hayford and Lunt prepare for these games with a long list.  Who wins Sat is talk for Friday...I am just looking forward to the rematch with CMS Thursday for now.

[TryMeTeam]

No player made it from PLU because their best player got suspended and was therefore left out of consideration.  And being a bottom team, you just don't earn the respect of an all-conference team.  Howe dropped from first team to honorable mention for that reason.  And Fox was lucky to get one in, and IMO it was the wrong one.

UPS peaked early the last two years and faded, but not this year.  They are on a mission and their only blip was last Saturday.  They won't blip again.  I agree that they will have trouble with the the other bigger teams they will face down the line, but I don't think they will in the rematch with WW.  But it will be interesting!  Looking forward to both games this week.

[Buc Up]

I pick UPS again if the match up is with WW because I gotta believe the officiating will be on more of an even keel from both sides' perspectives and the obvious advantages of being home, etc.

UPS4Life,  What do you mean that the officiating with be on more of an even keel?  Do you mean that UPS will have about 10-15 more fouls called on them because of their "hands on defense" and then it will be even?  Or do you mean that you think the fouls should be even or actually more fouls called on Whitworth?  The fact that you even bring up the refs and a possibility that UPS LOST the game is crazy!!!  The advantage for UPS is that they are playing at home and are very good at the style of basketball that they play.

However, I bet that nothing is changing the in game plan for UPS.  What could they change?  On defense, they pick up full court, put their hands all over the person who is dribbling the basketball and jump the passing lanes.  They give up 2 on 1 and 3 on 2 fast breaks and open three pointers.  They are good at it, but nothing changes.  On offense, they spread the court, drive and dish.  They are very good at shooting three pointers and finishing around the basket.  They thrive on turnovers by the other team and momentum.  They make the game, a game of runs.

Whitworth will actually game plan and adjust.  They will try and expose weakness and take advantage of their own strengths.  Lunt's game planning is done during the recruiting process and through being a good motivator.  As far as in game adjustments and game planning, there is none!  They play the same style against every opponent.  Sure he has tweaked things a little since Bridgeland, but what you see with UPS is what you get.  That is not to take anything away from them because they are very good at what they do.

Do not think it is a fluke that UPS happens to shoot poorly in games against Whitworth since they are traditionally at the top or near the top of the nation in defensive field goal percentage.  However, if UPS is shooting contested shots well, they will be very tough to beat.  Unlike UPS, Whitworth does not get out of position often on defense.  They make proper rotations and contest shots.  When the shot goes up, they find a man to block out.  Jurich and Montgomery (worst snub in NWC history to not even get one vote and receive honorable mention) are susceptible to foul trouble against a team like UPS who gets into the lane as they are the defenders of the basket.  They way Kraul and Foster crash the boards also draws fouls on opponents big men.

Hayford will have an excellent game plan and if the Pirates shoot well, they have a very good chance to win.  Of course, Whitworth has a touch matchup with Claremont to get through first and I can guarantee they are not overlooking them.  Whitworth had been on the road around 15 days in a row when the lost at Claremont and did not play well at all against them.   I predict Whitworth by an easy 12-15 with them pulling away at the end.

Montgomery 31-14 in the first round of the conference tourney against Linfield's good big men and 18-18 against Kraul and Foster in the game that got them into the tourney.  Not to mention some very good performances over the course of the year.  My prediction for the player of the year for next year. 

[UPS4Life]

By an even keel I meant that I'm predicting both sides will happier with the officiating than last time.  You can read whatever you want into that comment.  Call me crazy, but if Whitworth and Montgomery are so amazing, I don't see why they didn't go undefeated in regular season play.

As much as UPS thrives on turnovers, they also thrive on tiring the other team out and simply having more energy than them at the end of the game.  A lot of energy is expended just getting the ball over mid court.  This was evident in the last game against Lewis and Clark, down by double digits they had to run the clock to get a rest.  This was not the case against Whitworth on Saturday, UPS looked tired and made a number of poor plays as a result.

[bbaddict]

Lewis and Clark was playing with a reduced roster, due to injuries and just not having a very large team to start with.  That's not a problem for Whitworth or UPS.  Actually, I didn't think UPS looked tired at all.  They played well & they played hard, but Whitworth played better and won the game.  I think they can do it again, but first they have to beat CMS.

[P4L]

IF....(and I say IF because I do not want to jinx it and I know CMS is a very good basketball team) there is another match-up between UPS and WW there will be one key to the game in my opinion.

UPS shoots 48% from 3 in the first match-up: UPS wins by 12
UPS shoots 44% from 3 in the second match-up: UPS wins by 10
UPS shoots 27% from 3 in the third match-up: UPS loses by 10 in OT.

If WW can get out on shooters (which is VERY difficult to do against UPS) or UPS simply has an off shooting night and comes in below 30-35% from 3 I think WW has another great chance to win.

If UPS shoots near 50% from 3 it will be all but over for WW.
   

[bbaddict]

That's my point, P4L, the reason that those shooting stats changed as they did, is because the Whitworth coaches made adjustments and created defensive problems for UPS, thus the change in shooting stats.  Did anyone else see the front page article on D3Hoops naming Whitworth as a possible Cinderella team in their bracket?  That's what I've been saying.   UPS should be cheering for CMS, because I don't think they want to face Whitworth again.

[LogShow]

Maybe it was the defensive adjustments, maybe it was the hard mattress, or maybe it was the...well I won't go there, but everyone that has seen wedding crashers knows how that line ends.  UPS just needed to recharge their batteries. 

Sure WW played good D.  But UPS also missed a lot of good open looks from 3 and some lay-ups inside that they probably should have made.  But they didn't so hats off to WW for a good win.  As a logger fan I am not rooting for WW to lose or win...it shouldn't really matter.  You play who you play.  WW definately knows us better, but I am not worried or scared to play them.  UPS might have been dragging a bit last game, they hadn't lost since early December...its easy to get complacent.  Better then instead of in the NCAA.  I am willing to bet that UPS comes out with tons of energy and something to proove on Sat...I wouldn't want to be the first team to play them after a loss.

[P4L]

That's my point, P4L, the reason that those shooting stats changed as they did, is because the Whitworth coaches made adjustments and created defensive problems for UPS, thus the change in shooting stats.  Did anyone else see the front page article on D3Hoops naming Whitworth as a possible Cinderella team in their bracket?  That's what I've been saying.   UPS should be cheering for CMS, because I don't think they want to face Whitworth again.

We are on the same page here bbaddict.  Much of it was due to defensive pressure by WW and a good job at it.  My only observation after looking at the stats was that out of TO differential, rebounding, etc... the stat which I could look at during the end of the game and know for sure who won is the UPS 3 point percentage.  Its as simple as this:

IF UPS 3pt %: 48%-up, THEN UPS will win

IF UPS 3pt %: 40%-47%, THEN UPS will likely win but the game will be close

IF UPS 3pt %: 30%-39%, THEN WW will likely win but the game will be close

IF UPS 3pt %: Below 30%, THEN WW will win

[bbaddict]

Wow, I'm  impressed P4L, with your analytical proficiency!!

Logs, I just think Whitworth HAS the firepower to win -- whether they use it or not.

And, that wasn't the first game that I saw UPS really have to work.  In the game at Willamette, they only won by 1 point.  And it was a hard, fought battle.  Once again, it wasn't a bad night for UPS -- WU just played really great D.   That was a tough loss!

BearcatPress -- what's your update on the coaching situation?  Rumor has it that Ione is the one.  Any rumors about the Women's head coaching position?

[P4L]

Wow, I'm  impressed P4L, with your analytical proficiency!!

Logs, I just think Whitworth HAS the firepower to win -- whether they use it or not.

And, that wasn't the first game that I saw UPS really have to work.  In the game at Willamette, they only won by 1 point.  And it was a hard, fought battle.  Once again, it wasn't a bad night for UPS -- WU just played really great D.   That was a tough loss!

BearcatPress -- what's your update on the coaching situation?  Rumor has it that Ione is the one.  Any rumors about the Women's head coaching position?

What can I say?  Basketball is a numbers game 

[UPS4Life]

Seen every single home game for UPS this season and one away, they did not play well last Saturday.  They missed some open threes (as well as plenty of contested ones), they had some very painful lay ups roll off, especially near the end, and I saw Antwan make at least one if not more passes that I've never seen him make before, they were just awful, easily intercepted and they looked like the result of a tired, frustrated, and losing team.  I'm not saying WW didn't play great defense, but I definitely attest to a drop in the level of play I've see from the Loggers all season.  Not to mention Nakamura was hitting every 3, very impressive.

I'm rooting for Claremont because I'm just wanting a new match up, I don't think anyone in their right mind would think UPS is afraid to play Whitworth again.

[TeeDub]

That's my point, P4L, the reason that those shooting stats changed as they did, is because the Whitworth coaches made adjustments and created defensive problems for UPS, thus the change in shooting stats.  Did anyone else see the front page article on D3Hoops naming Whitworth as a possible Cinderella team in their bracket?  That's what I've been saying.   UPS should be cheering for CMS, because I don't think they want to face Whitworth again.

We are on the same page here bbaddict.  Much of it was due to defensive pressure by WW and a good job at it.  My only observation after looking at the stats was that out of TO differential, rebounding, etc... the stat which I could look at during the end of the game and know for sure who won is the UPS 3 point percentage.  Its as simple as this:

IF UPS 3pt %: 48%-up, THEN UPS will win

IF UPS 3pt %: 40%-47%, THEN UPS will likely win but the game will be close

IF UPS 3pt %: 30%-39%, THEN WW will likely win but the game will be close

IF UPS 3pt %: Below 30%, THEN WW will win

IF UPS scores more than WW, THEN UPS will win

IF UPS scores less than WW, THEN WW will win