MBB: Northwest Conference

[UPSoundLogs]

Good call Gil.

I agree that LC will need some help to get the number 1 seed, but they are on a serious roll right now.  I think they have a great chance at being the most dangerous team in the league at the end of the year, especailly if UPS doesn't pick it up pretty soon. 

And you're right, the NWC really shot itself in the foot in terms of trying to get two bids for the tourney.  Looks like the conference playoff champ will be the only one going. 

[bearcatsfan3]

WU looked very good against both UPS and PLU this weekend...maybe its a bit too late, but their ability to play at different tempos and with different lineups has been a big plus factor in their recent 3-game winning streak...

Now, with LC and GF's upsets, they are still two games out of the playoffs, but with games at Pacific and at LC this weekend, they can get themselves firmly back in the race...

With WU's erickson, Whitworth's Jones, GF's Heu-Weller, and now Foster, the NWC is missing some primetime players from some teams...

[pineconefan]

I have to concur with everyone else about the weekend - very interesting results.  A couple of observations -

Someone might argue that the UPS "slump" actually goes back four games, rather than just the last two.  Logs, you mentioned you didn't think the team looked sharp in either of the wins at home the previous weekend.  The challenge ahead for the Loggers is they still have to play both Whitworth and L&C within the last six games.

Whitworth's lack of outside shooting really hurt on Saturday.  With B. Williams getting in early foul trouble, the only real outside threat was Young, and you can always cover one outside guy.  They need Jones back.  If he is able to get back in the lineup by the Tacoma weekend, I think the Pirates will win out.

I think L&C is a year away from being the real favorite.  They are a soph/junior dominated team and whatever happens this year will just be a stepping stone for next year.  Glad to see Gaillard still has the fire.

Congrats to Willamette on getting things going.  I am sure the Bearcats felt like they "owed" one to UPS after letting the Tacoma match up get away late in regulation.  They will be a factor down the stretch, but two games will be tough to make up for third place. 

Any team at .500 or better in the league still has a shot, however, so things are going to be really fun down the stretch.  Only Linfield and Whitman figure to just play out the string at this point (but credit Linfield - which looks like its still trying to get better).

[TeeDub]

The challenge ahead for the Loggers is they still have to play both Whitworth and L&C within the last six games.

Not to mention an up-and-coming Pacific squad who handed UPS and L&C early conference losses this year...

[wildcat11]

The challenge ahead for the Loggers is they still have to play both Whitworth and L&C within the last six games.

Not to mention an up-and-coming Pacific squad who handed UPS and L&C early conference losses this year...

Speaking of Pacific...what is up with their bleachers that look like they are about 15 feet too short?  It just looks like a weird empty gap between the sideline and seats.  Are they planning on trenching out a moat?

[bucs77]

just a thought on two teams from the nwc making the tourney...  I think there is still a fairly decent chance of that: 
If WW rolls off their last 6, then loses in the nwc championship game they will be sitting at 23-3.
I don't think that you can keep that team out of the tournament.

Also if WW wins 5 of their last 6 in league and ups wins 7 of 7 then WW wins the 2nd third place game to play ups for the championship, I think both teams get in regardless of the winner.  UPS would be at 21-4 before the championship game and WW would be at 23-3 before the game.  Definately bubble for UPS especially, but I think they would have a shot.

[Gregory Sager]

just a thought on two teams from the nwc making the tourney...  I think there is still a fairly decent chance of that: 
If WW rolls off their last 6, then loses in the nwc championship game they will be sitting at 23-3.
I don't think that you can keep that team out of the tournament.

Also if WW wins 5 of their last 6 in league and ups wins 7 of 7 then WW wins the 2nd third place game to play ups for the championship, I think both teams get in regardless of the winner.  UPS would be at 21-4 before the championship game and WW would be at 23-3 before the game.  Definately bubble for UPS especially, but I think they would have a shot.

Overall records are meaningless as far as the D3 tourney selection committee is concerned, bucs77. There are five primary criteria that the committee considers when doling out the Pool C berths on Selection Sunday:

* regional winning percentage
* Quality of Wins Index
* W-L record vs. regionally ranked teams
* head-to-head record vs. other regionally ranked teams
* record vs. common opponents with other regionally ranked teams

I'm not going to calculate the QOWIs for Whitworth, Puget Sound, and Lewis & Clark, although you can do that yourselves if you like. The only one of the five primary criteria that can be readily distinguished is regional winning percentage. Whitworth's regional record is 14-2, which makes the Pirates' regional winning percentage .875. Puget Sound is currently 11-3 in regional play, which puts the Loggers at a .786 winning clip. L&C is 8-4, so the Pioneers stand at .667.

Last season, the lowest regional winning percentage among Pool C teams belonged to Illinois Wesleyan, which was .714 in regional play. Consider that your baseline in terms of where your respective teams need to be in order to get considered for an at-large berth should they fail to win the NWC tourney and get the league's Pool A bid. There are four other criteria to be considered, of course, but regional winning percentage is certainly as important, if not more important, than those other four.

In other words, right now both Whitworth and Puget Sound appear to be in good shape for NCAA tourney berths should either team fail to win the NWC's automatic bid. That's contingent, of course, upon maintaining their respective winning paces over the last six or seven games of the regular season.

[David Collinge]

Pac. Lutheran led UPS by 15 with 6:42 left, but over the next 4:30 the Loggers have forced six turnovers and have gone on a 15-1 run.  They now trail by just 1 with 2:19 left.

UPDATE:  0:54 left, PLU calls timeout clinging to a one point lead, 86-85.
UPDATE:  Brooks misses a jumper, UPS rebounds, DeLong scores to put the Loggers up for the first time in the 2nd half, 0:18 left.
UPDATE: McDaniels misses, Dressler rebounds but has it stolen by UPS' Williams, who gets a timeout (presumably to avoid a tieup or out of bounds call) with 0:02 left and UPS up one.
UPDATE: Brooks fouls on the imbounds play, DeLong converts the free throws, and UPS salvages their season with a great comeback, 89-86.  UPS finishes the game on a 23-5 run.

[UPSoundLogs]

WOW, the Loggers are really living life on the edge right now.  I'm certainly happy for the bounce back win last night, but it shouldn't take last minute heroics to win...AT HOME...TO PLU(4-7 in conference)!!!  Being down by 15 in the second half and needing a 23-5 run in the last six minutes is not a good thing.  On the bright side, It's great that they had it in them to make a succesful comeback, but I can guarantee nobody on the team was real happy about that performance.

Right now the Loggers are barely keeping their heads above water in the race for another NWC championship, they really need to step it up if they expect to have a shot at the tourney.   From the numbers, it looks like offensive production is not a problem, however the D needs to pick it up in a big way.

It looks like Krauel, Marsh, and Foster(good to see he's back!) all had nice games against PLU.  They still have a great record for being such a young team and they have plenty of talent to make some noise late in the season.  I'm confident that they will still be able to pull off a NWC title.  To start with, they have a great oppurtunity to avenge a loss this weekend.  Pacific is coming to town, I'm sure the Logs will be ready to go.  Should be a great game and I'm looking forward to watching!!!   

[NWCer]

UPSoundlogs, gutsy for your boys to find a way to pull it out, and you're right, they are living on the edge, and they can't be happy.  A win is a win - and it's important they got it, but looking at their last 5 games, squeakers at home against LC and Linfield, 2 road losses, and another squeaker at home against PLU, it's safe to say they are not "playing well". 

Is something goin' on within the squad? 

Has there been any word on Lunt and his "interim" status? 

Like it was posted earlier, there's no need for them to push the panic button, but the concerned buttom should be mashed on right about now.

Never thought I'd be saying this in Lowery's second year, but my Boxers have a shot at the season sweep this weekend.  Won't be able to make it up Sounds, but give us a good eyewitness report.  I will be at the Pacific/Willamette game, both sitting at 5-5 the loser can kiss any run at the tourney away, the winner still has an outside shot.  Should be an entertaining 3 weekends!

[UPSoundLogs]

NWCer-  I'll try to give a decent eyewitness report for you. 8)

As for Lunt's interim positive...

In my opinion they should do everything they can to keep him around.  He has had some really big shoes to fill with this years UPS squad.  Over the last few years the Loggers have pretty much dominated the NWC as well as made it deep into the tourney, including the elite 8 last year.  In losing a head coach AND graduating 4 key seniors last year, Lunt has been stuck with a "rebuilding" year at UPS.  So far he has managed a great record and is seated at 2nd in the conference with a team that doesn't have a senior and starts mostly sophmores.  By UPS standards, I would consider it a down year, but under the circumstances they have had great success and should have a very succesful future with the players they have.  Lunt has had great experience with past UPS squads, knows his players well, and knows what it takes to win not only a NWC championship, but take a shot at the National championship as well.  I think he has a bright future as the head coach for the Loggers. 

[NWCer]

Good points Logs,

Success does breed crazy expectations, although I wouldn't call UPS's season a "rebuilding" year, they were still picked to finish 1st, and they may start mostly sophomores, but they're VERY GOOD ONES.  Whoever gets that job should be in a good position, would any other NWC people agree that the infrastructure that is at UPS makes that the "best job" in the conference?  (along with Whitworth, maybe Linfield and Willamette, I don't know, any thoughts?)

Let me know what you think of my Boxers Logs.

[UPSoundLogs]

NWCer

I just meant "rebuilding" as compared to the last few years.  UPS had only lost 4 NWC games in the last 3 years, and always had a solid senior class to rely on.  This year they have already lost three and their main players are very young.  I agree with you that it isn't a true rebuilding year though...I was just trying to make a point. 

[NWCer]

I knew you were just making a point Logs, just messin' with you

Just funny to see the "rebuilding" word next to a team that's been ranked all year.  They're good, but as you mentioned, not the "UPS good" of the last 3 seasons, although they're still in good shape to get another title.

A different subject, didn't Linfield used to be a year in and year out solid team.  What has happened to their program   Not bustin' chops, just an honest question.

[pennstlbu]

I just realized this, but UPS now owns a 33 game conference winning streak at home. Their last loss at home against a NWC foe was during the 2002-03 season against Lewis & Clark. That's a pretty impressive streak. Hopefully, I didn't jinx the team though.