FB: Region 4 fan poll

[smedindy]

I would not put Redlands ahead of North Central.

NC is #8 in Massey (non-NESCAC filtered)
Redlands is #19 in Massey (non-NESCAC filtered)

Redlands had a few games where they hung on for dear life. I think a team that's better than North Central should have easily beaten Oxy, Chapman, CMS and Whitworth.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

H2H is just one factor in deciding who I'd rank ahead. When the H2H is a 1 point game, that is pretty even to me and isn't compelling enough evidence to simply vote Wabash ahead of NCC. Had Wabash won more convincingly then they probably would be unanimously ahead of NCC. So you have to look at the rest of the body of work.

The best teams Wabash beat were NCC, Illinois College, and Witt... they had a weak schedule (and being a Franklin fan I understand about conference play causing a weak schedule). I don't know if there's particular reasons for their non-conference games of @Chicago, Kenyon, Washington, and @Depauw (obviously Depauw is a rivalry) but it didn't help them out any.

North Central lost 1st week of the season by 6 @ Redlands. They beat Dubuque, Wheaton, @ IWU, and NAIA Bethel. A much more difficult schedule. Their non-conference was @Redlands, NAIA Bethel, and Olivet.

If everyone had the same opinion there'd be no point in the poll, we'd simply have a single person list the order

[Mr. Ypsi]

H2H is just one factor in deciding who I'd rank ahead. When the H2H is a 1 point game, that is pretty even to me and isn't compelling enough evidence to simply vote Wabash ahead of NCC. Had Wabash won more convincingly then they probably would be unanimously ahead of NCC. So you have to look at the rest of the body of work.

The best teams Wabash beat were NCC, Illinois College, and Witt... they had a weak schedule (and being a Franklin fan I understand about conference play causing a weak schedule). I don't know if there's particular reasons for their non-conference games of @Chicago, Kenyon, Washington, and @Depauw (obviously Depauw is a rivalry) but it didn't help them out any.

North Central lost 1st week of the season by 6 @ Redlands. They beat Dubuque, Wheaton, @ IWU, and NAIA Bethel. A much more difficult schedule. Their non-conference was @Redlands, NAIA Bethel, and Olivet.

If everyone had the same opinion there'd be no point in the poll, we'd simply have a single person list the order

Thanks, Griz.  As anyone who read the Top 25 discussion would know, I already said if Wabash had won by a bigger margin (or had won in Naperville), the discussion would never have happened.

wally_wabash, I respect you too much to let your 'straw-man' arguments slide - you know damn well that my position was not based solely on 'the CCIW is better' or the anguish of Krause.  I have given plenty of credit to Franklin (and previously Trine) whose conferences are probably even weaker than the NCAC (and reluctantly gave credit to Monmouth, who ousted my Titans, even though the MWC is probably weaker yet).  I credit Wabash with the win; I just happen to think that if they played ten times, NCC wins 6+ of them.

bashbro, I have already said I thought that was a hugely gutsy call to go for two.  Can YOU take off your scarlet-tinted glasses long enough to admit that a deflected pass reception is one helluva lucky break to win the game?

[ExTartanPlayer]

"If everyone had the same opinion there'd be no point in the poll, we'd simply have a single person list the order."

Agreed.  If the biggest problem is that a single voter in this poll elected to keep NCC ahead of Wabash when the game was a) at Wabash, b) decided by a single point, and c) required a substantial comeback...then I think we're doing OK.  Much better than the circus in Division I coaches' poll (when some votes have CLEARLY self-serving motives, like Nick Saban mysteriously ranking Oklahoma State FIFTH on his ballot).

Yes, IMHO, I would still rank Wabash ahead because I place a high value on head-to-head results.  But I don't think it's a great travesty that some voters kept NCC ahead, especially with the logic that's used here.  A one-point win at home that required a 21-point comeback and a (whether you guys will admit it or not) fluky two-point conversion isn't exactly CONCLUSIVE evidence that Wabash is a better team than NCC.

Does that take away from Wabash's accomplishment?  Not at all!  It's just a friggin' fan poll.

[formerd3db]

ExTartanPlayer:
Indeed, that is not surprising at all as Nick Saban has always been self-centered his entire career.  He is "mode operendi" - what's best for Nick Saban comes first.

[wally_wabash]

H2H is just one factor in deciding who I'd rank ahead. When the H2H is a 1 point game, that is pretty even to me and isn't compelling enough evidence to simply vote Wabash ahead of NCC. Had Wabash won more convincingly then they probably would be unanimously ahead of NCC. So you have to look at the rest of the body of work.

The best teams Wabash beat were NCC, Illinois College, and Witt... they had a weak schedule (and being a Franklin fan I understand about conference play causing a weak schedule). I don't know if there's particular reasons for their non-conference games of @Chicago, Kenyon, Washington, and @Depauw (obviously Depauw is a rivalry) but it didn't help them out any.

North Central lost 1st week of the season by 6 @ Redlands. They beat Dubuque, Wheaton, @ IWU, and NAIA Bethel. A much more difficult schedule. Their non-conference was @Redlands, NAIA Bethel, and Olivet.

If everyone had the same opinion there'd be no point in the poll, we'd simply have a single person list the order

Thanks, Griz.  As anyone who read the Top 25 discussion would know, I already said if Wabash had won by a bigger margin (or had won in Naperville), the discussion would never have happened.

wally_wabash, I respect you too much to let your 'straw-man' arguments slide - you know damn well that my position was not based solely on 'the CCIW is better' or the anguish of Krause.  I have given plenty of credit to Franklin (and previously Trine) whose conferences are probably even weaker than the NCAC (and reluctantly gave credit to Monmouth, who ousted my Titans, even though the MWC is probably weaker yet).  I credit Wabash with the win; I just happen to think that if they played ten times, NCC wins 6+ of them.

The ol' "body of work" clause.  If you're going to say "body of work" then you can't ignore the losses.  Are they not part of that "body of work"?  I've read every if this and but that about those results against Redlands and Wabash...at the end of the day they lost and that has to matter.  Maybe North Central underachieved (or maybe that's just what North Central really was this year), but the losses have to matter, fellas.  They just have to. 

I just can't understand how you can rationalize away two losses, one of which is a h2h loss to the team they are being directly compared to.  Where did North Central build up all of this benefit of the doubt capital that they get a free pass for losing to the two best teams they played this year? 

[smedindy]

Wally, they DO matter. But you look at Redlands, and that loss doesn't happen in week 5. NC was much more impressive than Redlands after that game.

So why don't you just do rankings as standings, then?

[SUADC]

H2H is just one factor in deciding who I'd rank ahead. When the H2H is a 1 point game, that is pretty even to me and isn't compelling enough evidence to simply vote Wabash ahead of NCC. Had Wabash won more convincingly then they probably would be unanimously ahead of NCC. So you have to look at the rest of the body of work.

The best teams Wabash beat were NCC, Illinois College, and Witt... they had a weak schedule (and being a Franklin fan I understand about conference play causing a weak schedule). I don't know if there's particular reasons for their non-conference games of @Chicago, Kenyon, Washington, and @Depauw (obviously Depauw is a rivalry) but it didn't help them out any.

North Central lost 1st week of the season by 6 @ Redlands. They beat Dubuque, Wheaton, @ IWU, and NAIA Bethel. A much more difficult schedule. Their non-conference was @Redlands, NAIA Bethel, and Olivet.

If everyone had the same opinion there'd be no point in the poll, we'd simply have a single person list the order

Thanks, Griz.  As anyone who read the Top 25 discussion would know, I already said if Wabash had won by a bigger margin (or had won in Naperville), the discussion would never have happened.

wally_wabash, I respect you too much to let your 'straw-man' arguments slide - you know damn well that my position was not based solely on 'the CCIW is better' or the anguish of Krause.  I have given plenty of credit to Franklin (and previously Trine) whose conferences are probably even weaker than the NCAC (and reluctantly gave credit to Monmouth, who ousted my Titans, even though the MWC is probably weaker yet).  I credit Wabash with the win; I just happen to think that if they played ten times, NCC wins 6+ of them.

The ol' "body of work" clause.  If you're going to say "body of work" then you can't ignore the losses.  Are they not part of that "body of work"?  I've read every if this and but that about those results against Redlands and Wabash...at the end of the day they lost and that has to matter.  Maybe North Central underachieved (or maybe that's just what North Central really was this year), but the losses have to matter, fellas.  They just have to. 

I just can't understand how you can rationalize away two losses, one of which is a h2h loss to the team they are being directly compared to.  Where did North Central build up all of this benefit of the doubt capital that they get a free pass for losing to the two best teams they played this year?

I have to agree with you in regards to standings and counting h2h losses does matter. As far as rankings, anyone can rank teams. Where teams rank today, I see it from 1-10 like this:

T1 UW-W
T1 MUC
3   Wesley
4   UMHB
5   Wabash
T6   St. Thomas
T6   Salisbury
8   Linfield
9   North Central (Ill.)
10 Kean

Again, this is MY opinion of the rankings.

[smedindy]

So Wally would you rank Iowa State ahead of Oklahoma State? Losses matter, you know! 

[wally_wabash]

Wally, they DO matter. But you look at Redlands, and that loss doesn't happen in week 5. NC was much more impressive than Redlands after that game.

How do you know Redlands wouldn't beat North Central in week 5 or week 8 or whenever?  You're just guessing.  We know, with absolute certainty, that when North Central and Redlands played, Redlands won.  No ifs, no buts.  Redlands won. 

So Wally would you rank Iowa State ahead of Oklahoma State? Losses matter, you know! 

Of course not.  That's a silly proposition.  You're talking about a 6-6 team compared with an 11-1 team.  There really is no comparison.  6-6 did beat 11-1, but there is plenty of evidence available that tells you Iowa State need not be ranked anywhere near Oklahoma State.  In this case, we're talking about a 12-1 team against a 10-2 team where 12-1 bet 10-2.  Where is the hard evidence that says 10-2 should be ranked higher than the 12-1 team that they lost to?  It just isn't there.  There aren't bad losses by the 12-1 team.  There really aren't a dearth of good/great wins or even one ginormous win by the 10-2 team that trumps not only the h2h loss, but the second loss as well. 

[smedindy]

We know Redlands won, yes. But you're also just guessing that it proves Redlands is the better team hands down. It does not. There were many factors involved - week 1 on the road on a long road trip being the keys.

I take that game into consideration, but I take other factors into consideration.

[wally_wabash]

We know Redlands won, yes. But you're also just guessing that it proves Redlands is the better team hands down. It does not. There were many factors involved - week 1 on the road on a long road trip being the keys.

I take that game into consideration, but I take other factors into consideration.

I guess I just don't understand the excuse making for North Central which has been going on, literally, all season.  It was a long road trip.  It was a lucky deflection.  When does it stop and when is North Central accountable for not taking care of their business?  This team was annointed as the team that was going to crash the purple party based on three good quarters agasnst Whitewater...last year.  I'm not sure what that has to do with 2011 rankings and why, no matter who they lose to or how many times they lose, it's just accepted that North Central is #2.  The pieces just don't fit. 

[smedindy]

I think you're getting way too defensive. I'm not talking about the Wabash game. I have Wabash over NC. I am saying that even though Redlands beat NC - NC to me is the better team. Period. The factors are my logical reasons on why I don't make the head-to-head the be all and end all. That is not an excuse.

Besides, you open yourself up to the A beat B who beat C who beat A by rigidly and blindly going HTH.

[wally_wabash]

I think you're getting way too defensive. I'm not talking about the Wabash game. I have Wabash over NC. I am saying that even though Redlands beat NC - NC to me is the better team. Period. The factors are my logical reasons on why I don't make the head-to-head the be all and end all. That is not an excuse.

Besides, you open yourself up to the A beat B who beat C who beat A by rigidly and blindly going HTH.

I'm just trying to understand why a h2h result can be traded for a giant sack of subjectivity and speculation.  The things that actually happened ought to carry more weight that the things we think should have or would have or could have happened.  I happen to think that North Central is really, really, really good.  I mean really good.  I know that in 2011, Wabash was better.  I know because I watched them play and Wabash won.  Maybe on a different day, North Central wins.  Maybe at home, North Central wins.  Maybe.  Wabash has nothing else in their "body of work" that is so awful that it makes sense to ignore that result.  Next year we can (and probably will) go right back to just assuming that North Central or whoever the flavor of the month in the CCIW is is just automatically better than the best NCAC team, but for right now in 2011, we know with zero uncertainty who was better. 

[emma17]

I don't have an opinion as to who should be ranked higher between NCC and Wabash, but in the game of Horse where one must "call their shot", the two point conversion would not have counted. 

Does that make Wabash "better" than NCC?  Tough call.

Conversely, the NCC coaching staff did not seem to either have an answer for defending the pass or failed to take the threat serious enough to do something about it.  The Wabash staff won that battle and maybe they are the "better" that results in the higher ranking.