FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

No. It's not like I'm discounting Olivet all together. I just think there are 10 better teams, at least.

You get to believe whatever you want on here. It's like Wally Wonka's Chocolate factory

[wally_wabash]

Today's results:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0 def. Muskingum 44-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0 def. Carthage 34-21
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1 def. Augustana 37-14
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1 def. Otterbein 49-6
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1 def. Adrian 44-37
6   Denison   7-1   7-1 lost vs. #10 Wabash 14-22
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1 def. Kenyon 64-17
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2 def. Anderson 55-34
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2 BYE
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1 def. #6 Denison 22-14

[thunderdog]

Today's results:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0 def. Muskingum 44-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0 def. Carthage 34-21
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1 def. Augustana 37-14
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1 def. Otterbein 49-6
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1 def. Adrian 44-37
6   Denison   7-1   7-1 lost vs. #10 Wabash 14-22
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1 def. Kenyon 64-17
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2 def. Anderson 55-34
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2 BYE
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1 def. #6 Denison 22-14

Given Denison's loss to Wabash, is it fair to assume they fall out of the NCAA North Regional ranking completely? Who's the most likely to slide into the #10 spot? I predict IWU.

[wally_wabash]

Today's results:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0 def. Muskingum 44-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0 def. Carthage 34-21
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1 def. Augustana 37-14
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1 def. Otterbein 49-6
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1 def. Adrian 44-37
6   Denison   7-1   7-1 lost vs. #10 Wabash 14-22
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1 def. Kenyon 64-17
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2 def. Anderson 55-34
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2 BYE
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1 def. #6 Denison 22-14

Given Denison's loss to Wabash, is it fair to assume they fall out of the NCAA North Regional ranking completely? Who's the most likely to slide into the #10 spot? I predict IWU.

That's what I've pondering this evening.  I don't know if Denison will drop all the way out.  The likely suspects to replace them would be IWU, Bluffton, Hope, Lakeland, Benedictine, or DePauw. 

Bluffton and Lakeland have rotten SOS and/or three losses and no RRO wins, so let's take them out. 
Hope and Benedictine actually have nice SOS numbers, but they have three losses and are 0-2 vs. RROs. 
DePauw lost h2h to Denison, has a bad common opponent result (Witt) with Denison, so they're probably not going to pass Denison either. 

So that leaves IWU.  IWU has a 0.517 SOS compared to Denison's 0.502.  A difference, but not immense.  IWU is 0-2 vs. RROs, Denison is 1-1.  And, for whatever it's worth, IWU is 6-2 (0.750 win%) and Denison is 7-2 (0.778 win%).  I think Denison stays ranked and IWU stays the first team out. 

[thunderdog]

Today's results:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0 def. Muskingum 44-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0 def. Carthage 34-21
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1 def. Augustana 37-14
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1 def. Otterbein 49-6
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1 def. Adrian 44-37
6   Denison   7-1   7-1 lost vs. #10 Wabash 14-22
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1 def. Kenyon 64-17
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2 def. Anderson 55-34
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2 BYE
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1 def. #6 Denison 22-14

Given Denison's loss to Wabash, is it fair to assume they fall out of the NCAA North Regional ranking completely? Who's the most likely to slide into the #10 spot? I predict IWU.

That's what I've pondering this evening.  I don't know if Denison will drop all the way out.  The likely suspects to replace them would be IWU, Bluffton, Hope, Lakeland, Benedictine, or DePauw. 

Bluffton and Lakeland have rotten SOS and/or three losses and no RRO wins, so let's take them out. 
Hope and Benedictine actually have nice SOS numbers, but they have three losses and are 0-2 vs. RROs. 
DePauw lost h2h to Denison, has a bad common opponent result (Witt) with Denison, so they're probably not going to pass Denison either. 

So that leaves IWU.  IWU has a 0.517 SOS compared to Denison's 0.502.  A difference, but not immense.  IWU is 0-2 vs. RROs, Denison is 1-1.  And, for whatever it's worth, IWU is 6-2 (0.750 win%) and Denison is 7-2 (0.778 win%).  I think Denison stays ranked and IWU stays the first team out.

Nice analysis Wally. I think you're right. Denison win over RRO Witt will probably keep them in the #10 spot ahead of IWU.

I'm still trying to figure out why a win over a RRO is weighted so much more than a "bad" loss. It seems like it should be:

big win > bad loss

but really, it's:

big win >>> bad loss

and that doesn't really make sense to me. Yes, I'd take a big win over bad loss, but just slightly so...

[wally_wabash]

Today's results:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0 def. Muskingum 44-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0 def. Carthage 34-21
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1 def. Augustana 37-14
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1 def. Otterbein 49-6
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1 def. Adrian 44-37
6   Denison   7-1   7-1 lost vs. #10 Wabash 14-22
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1 def. Kenyon 64-17
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2 def. Anderson 55-34
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2 BYE
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1 def. #6 Denison 22-14

Given Denison's loss to Wabash, is it fair to assume they fall out of the NCAA North Regional ranking completely? Who's the most likely to slide into the #10 spot? I predict IWU.

That's what I've pondering this evening.  I don't know if Denison will drop all the way out.  The likely suspects to replace them would be IWU, Bluffton, Hope, Lakeland, Benedictine, or DePauw. 

Bluffton and Lakeland have rotten SOS and/or three losses and no RRO wins, so let's take them out. 
Hope and Benedictine actually have nice SOS numbers, but they have three losses and are 0-2 vs. RROs. 
DePauw lost h2h to Denison, has a bad common opponent result (Witt) with Denison, so they're probably not going to pass Denison either. 

So that leaves IWU.  IWU has a 0.517 SOS compared to Denison's 0.502.  A difference, but not immense.  IWU is 0-2 vs. RROs, Denison is 1-1.  And, for whatever it's worth, IWU is 6-2 (0.750 win%) and Denison is 7-2 (0.778 win%).  I think Denison stays ranked and IWU stays the first team out.

Nice analysis Wally. I think you're right. Denison win over RRO Witt will probably keep them in the #10 spot ahead of IWU.

I'm still trying to figure out why a win over a RRO is weighted so much more than a "bad" loss. It seems like it should be:

big win > bad loss

but really, it's:

big win >>> bad loss

and that doesn't really make sense to me. Yes, I'd take a big win over bad loss, but just slightly so...

I actually think it's the opposite.  I think teams get hammered way harder for a "bad" loss than they get credit for a "good" win.  And to me, that's an error.  When we're talking about teams in the at-large pool, we know they can lose.  They're in the at-large pool because they lost.  I want to know who you can beat.  I think invitation to the tournament ought to come along with some kind of demonstration that you can beat a tournament team.  That distinction isn't always available, but when it is and we can know that a team has beaten a tournament team, that should count for so much more than whatever hypothetical results we can cook up in our head. 

And I would also say that RRO wins get more weight (if they actually do, which I'm not convinced of), it's because the criteria very specifically say look at those results against ranked opponents.  They are highlighted for a reason. 

[Dr. Acula]

I did some shuffling in the bottom half this week thanks to Denison losing.  My top six remained as is from last week.  JCU has the most to gain or lose this week in terms of movement on my ballot.

[wally_wabash]

The poll results I know you've all been waiting for tonight...the Week 10 NRFP:



The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF,  smedindy, USee, and wally wabash.

[Dr. Acula]

I'm column 5 AKA "Mr. Franklin".  I just noticed that I had the Griz higher than anyone else.  I continue to put a lot of weight in the TMC win.  It's arguably the best win in the region other than NCC over Wheaton.

I left Denison in at 10 this week mainly because I just don't think there is much difference between Denison, Witt and Wabash.  I've watched all 3 of those games and those teams felt very comparable to me.  That makes me believe DU is one of the 10 best teams in the region.  Couple that with Witt being a better win than anything IWU gives me and I chose to keep IWU in the on deck circle.  I can see that one either way though.  It really depends on if you're a "who you beat" guy or a "who you lost to" guy, IMO.

[wally_wabash]

11/9 NCAA Rankings:

NORTH   
1 Mount Union 9-0 9-0
2 North Central (Illinois) 7-0 9-0
3 Wheaton (Illinois) 8-1 8-1
4 John Carroll 8-1 8-1
5 Olivet 8-1 8-1
6 Wittenberg 8-1 8-1
7 Wabash 8-1 8-1
8 Rose-Hulman 7-2 7-2
9 Franklin 7-1 7-2
10 Illinois Wesleyan 6-2 6-2

This has kind of played out exactly as we thought, with the IWU or Denison question at the end answered in the favor of IWU.  Honestly, I don't get it.  I don't think IWU has any particular criteria-based reasons to be ranked ahead of Denison, but the move is hardly surprising. 

That makes the news for Wabash a tad bittersweet this week.  Denison is out when means zero RRO wins for Wabash.  The good news is they did jump  Franklin and are really in the best possible position entering Week 11.  A win this week coupled with a JCU loss (particularly if there is any kind of significant margin behind it) looks today like it will boost Wabash up into the on deck position in the at-large lineup.  Which means Wabash would at least get into the conversation.  Last week, getting into the conversation was off the table.  So there's hope.  We'll see how Week 11 plays out. 

[wally_wabash]

After considerable thought on this, I think there's only one clear answer as to how the North is ranking its teams and why.  And it's not in the criteria, which makes it suspect, iyam. 

Per the criteria, John Carroll really can't be ranked ahead of Olivet or Wittenberg.  Certainly Olivet.  You can also make criteria based arguments for the placement of Franklin ahead of John Carroll as well.  I've already outlined why I think Denison ought to be ranked ahead of Illinois Wesleyan.  So what's the missing piece?  It seems to me that this committee is really being punitive for teams that have lost to an unranked team- which very much is not a criteria. 

John Carroll's one loss is to a ranked team (Oshkosh).  Olivet doesn't have a loss to an unranked team, so this order still doesn't make any sense.  But let's move down the list..Olivet is higher than Witt who has lost to an unranked team (Denison).  Witt is higher than Wabash even though Wabash has not lost to an unranked team, the h2h matters more (as it should).  Franklin hasn't lost to an unranked team, but they did lose h2h to RHIT which kind of anchors them and that ranking order seems appropriate.  And then there's Illinois Wesleyan, being ranked ahead of Denison and DePauw (who I assume are lurking just below the cut line here).  IWU has not lost to an unranked team, Denison and DePauw both have (Denison to DePauw itself, DePauw to OWU), even though Denison has a legit RRO win and IWU does not. 

That's a longwinded way to say that this committee really seems laser focused on playing the "who did you lose to" game, which I think is so completely backwards.  But what can you do.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I'm curious how Wabash jumped Franklin... Franklin 1-1 RRO while Wabash 0-1... Franklin .499 SoS vs Wabash .450... Wabash 8-1 vs Franklin 7-1 (plus the Butler loss)
If they played today I'd pick Wabash to beat Franklin, but based on the criteria I don't see how they're ahead. Does a loss to Butler mean more than a RRO win and almost .05 SoS?

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm curious how Wabash jumped Franklin... Franklin 1-1 RRO while Wabash 0-1... Franklin .499 SoS vs Wabash .450... Wabash 8-1 vs Franklin 7-1 (plus the Butler loss)
If they played today I'd pick Wabash to beat Franklin, but based on the criteria I don't see how they're ahead. Does a loss to Butler mean more than a RRO win and almost .05 SoS?

You're right, of course, but I think Wally nailed it.  This RAC seems to feel that a bad loss trumps nearly anything else, and Franklin lost to RHIT (who lost to unspeakably bad teams ) while Wabash lost to Witt.

[wally_wabash]

It's a fair question, and I was surprised this week when Wabash jumped Franklin.  But I think this maybe makes a touch more sense than doubling down on JCU ahead of everybody else. 

Franklin lost to RHIT which kind of anchors them to RHIT.  And if that's the starting point and you're ranking Wabash vs. RHIT, RHIT has the bad losses, Wabash has the better win percentage...the SOS is still poor, but it's not hard to rank Wabash ahead of RHIT, and as a result ahead of Franklin.  Why that wasn't the case in the first rankings, I don't know.  But this kind of makes sense, if you're willing to accept that Franklin must be ranked behind RHIT (which is debatable...the NRFP certainly doesn't think Franklin has to be ranked behind RHIT). 

And that logic would also help explain the IWU/Denison position at the bottom of the rankings.  Denison with an equal record to DePauw probably has to get anchored behind DePauw.  And then if you're comparing IWU and DePauw, it's not a hard choice to place IWU in front. 

And all of that makes it really unclear what they'll do with JCU if they lose.  If they think JCU needs to be ranked ahead of Wittenberg, even with a second loss, then Wabash won't get in behind Wheaton in the on deck circle.  I'm not sure why that would happen, but I don't understand why JCU is ranked where they are to begin with. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I'd compare the Franklin/RHIT situation to Witt/Denison... Franklin and Witt have lost just once in D3 (to RHIT and Denison respectively) while Rose and Denison both have 2 losses (Rose to Illinois College and MSJ while Denison to Wabash and DePauw). Yet Rose is ranked 1 spot ahead of Franklin but Denison is at a minimum of 5 spots below Witt.