FB: Region 4 fan poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I'm having a terrible time trying to figure things out at the bottom this week... can we have a Top 8 poll instead? Going to have to sleep on it a day or two

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm more inclined to think Wheaton had a bad week against Albion now than Albion has broken into the same level as the CCIW and the OAC second tier.

Reportedly, Albion has NO even halfway competent #2 qb.  I let them stay #9 (down from #5) on my ballot this week, but if their first guy doesn't return, it looks like they are toast.

Two weeks from now is make-or-break for two undefeated (but untested) teams who would be 11th and 12th on my ballot: Elmhurst vs. NCC and CMU vs. Wabash.

[ADL70]

I'm more inclined to think Wheaton had a bad week against Albion now than Albion has broken into the same level as the CCIW and the OAC second tier.

Reportedly, Albion has NO even halfway competent #2 qb.  I let them stay #9 (down from #5) on my ballot this week, but if their first guy doesn't return, it looks like they are toast.

Two weeks from now is make-or-break for two undefeated (but untested) teams who would be 11th and 12th on my ballot: Elmhurst vs. NCC and CMU vs. Wabash.

I believe CMU is South Region.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'm more inclined to think Wheaton had a bad week against Albion now than Albion has broken into the same level as the CCIW and the OAC second tier.

Reportedly, Albion has NO even halfway competent #2 qb.  I let them stay #9 (down from #5) on my ballot this week, but if their first guy doesn't return, it looks like they are toast.

Two weeks from now is make-or-break for two undefeated (but untested) teams who would be 11th and 12th on my ballot: Elmhurst vs. NCC and CMU vs. Wabash.

I believe CMU is South Region.

Yes, CMU is in the South Region, although I guess we can make our own rules for the Regional Fan polls, right?   

It's kinda tough to figure out where CMU would fit in the South Region poll these days because we don't play many games vs. South teams any more.  We used to, but since the NCAC agreement, we play more North teams, so I spend a lot more time reading this board than the South boards.

An unrelated hypothetical question to pose for our voters (wally, I suspect you'll have an interesting opinion here): what do you do with UWW and Buffalo State if you're a top 25 voter?  Obviously the D3football poll is already up and their voters have spoken.  I'm just curious for your thoughts.

On one hand, Buff State is 2-1 with a head to head win AT Wisconsin-Whitewater (who is currently 1-1).  Strictly by letter of this season's accomplishments, Buff State should be ranked higher, no?

This follows wally's theory of "not ignoring results that have actually happened on the field" (especially considering that Buff State DID really outplay UWW defensively, it wasn't a fluky win thanks to seven turnovers or two special-teams TD's or something like that).

On the other hand...UWW is a Purple Power with seven straight title-game appearances and three straight titles.  Buff State is a 5-5 team moving from the NJAC to the Empire 8 that's already lost to a decent-but-not-great Brockport State team.  How do we reconcile this?

I understand that this is a virtually unprecedented situation and it's hard to imagine ranking UWW anywhere below the top 10, much as it's difficult to rank a Buffalo State team with virtually ZERO history of winning anywhere above the bottom half of the poll.

Discuss.

[wally_wabash]

An unrelated hypothetical question to pose for our voters (wally, I suspect you'll have an interesting opinion here): what do you do with UWW and Buffalo State if you're a top 25 voter?  Obviously the D3football poll is already up and their voters have spoken.  I'm just curious for your thoughts.

On one hand, Buff State is 2-1 with a head to head win AT Wisconsin-Whitewater (who is currently 1-1).  Strictly by letter of this season's accomplishments, Buff State should be ranked higher, no?

This follows wally's theory of "not ignoring results that have actually happened on the field" (especially considering that Buff State DID really outplay UWW defensively, it wasn't a fluky win thanks to seven turnovers or two special-teams TD's or something like that).

On the other hand...UWW is a Purple Power with seven straight title-game appearances and three straight titles.  Buff State is a 5-5 team moving from the NJAC to the Empire 8 that's already lost to a decent-but-not-great Brockport State team.  How do we reconcile this?

I understand that this is a virtually unprecedented situation and it's hard to imagine ranking UWW anywhere below the top 10, much as it's difficult to rank a Buffalo State team with virtually ZERO history of winning anywhere above the bottom half of the poll.

Discuss.

The situation is virtually unprecedented here.  The last time a #1 team lost in the regular season was Mount Union in 2005.  And that was to a league rival (ONU) who was a known quantity and had a good team (ONU was preseason #5 in 2005, and was #20 at the time of that win...side note: ONU did not make the playoffs that year...probably should have.  The top of the OAC was nasty that year...back to the post).  This Buffalo State situation is different.  Buffalo State has been down for a lot of years now.  They had to bus 11 hours to the game.  They don't have familiarity with Whitewater.  And then they blew up everything we thought we knew about Buffalo State and UW-Whitewater. 

The real question here is how much of this does a voter pawn off as a fluke (a stance that you all know I abhor), and how much of this does a voter view as Whitewater being a team that lost a ton of star players and not near the juggernaut that they have been through the Beaver/Coppage/Blanchard years, Buffalo State being better than you thought, and then how do you mesh the two.  Clearly, the voters aren't buying Buffalo State.  If Whitewater can lose at home to an unranked, unvoted for team and only fall down to #7, then Buffalo State deserves to be a lot higher than they are.  Personally, I absolutely would rank Buffalo State ahead of Whitewater (which I realize brings Brockport into a tertiary converstion, but that just goes to show how entangled these ballots can get). 

Today, Buffalo State > UWW.  That's real.  That result will get some more flesh and context as these two teams play through their demanding conference schedules.  Whitewater may not be close to the team that they have been.  If so, we'll see it in WIAC play and then maybe the Buff State results makes a little more sense.  Or maybe Buff State runs wild through the E8 and the result makes more sense that way.  Or maybe UWW tramples the WIAC and Buff State goes 4-3 in the E8 and we'll wind up just shrugging off that result.  Basically, we need more data to adequately process that result.  Like I said, I would rank Buffalo State ahead of Whitewater today.  But this is such an odd occurrance in the d3football.com top 25 polling era that there probably isn't a right or wrong way to handle it.  As much as going 45-0 in 2009-2011 shouldn't matter in a 2012 season poll, I'm not sure voters can just ignore that, which, more than anything else, is why I think UWW didn't get crushed in the poll. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

OOPS!  I initially knew CMU was not North Region, because I used the North Region team list in first setting up my 'watch list'.  But they are continually playing NR teams (between the NCAC agreement and the rest of the UAA), and I just eventually added them when they got to 3-0!

I have now scratched them back off the list!

I have replaced CMU with OWU and Millikin, two teams who have been too weak lately to originally bother with, but who are both 2-0 but still untested.

[HSCTiger74]

OOPS!  I initially knew CMU was not North Region, because I used the North Region team list in first setting up my 'watch list'.  But they are continually playing NR teams (between the NCAC agreement and the rest of the UAA), and I just eventually added them when they got to 3-0!

I have now scratched them back off the list!

Maybe the powers-that-be will handle CMU like they did Salisbury and switch their regions now that their scheduling has changed. I do know that for a time, after joining the E8 but before they were switched, the Gulls were getting votes in the fan polls for both the South and East Regions. 

[wesleydad]

Extartan, I was wondering the same thing on another site, not much talk, so I will come over here since it seems that some might chime in.  My wondering was how does the UWW loss compare to the Wesley loss as far as the polls go.  UWW ends up 4 and Wesley ends up 6, a 3 position drop for both.  I am fine with Wesley dropping to wherever as long as they remain ahead of Salisbury who they defeated.  I think it is obvious that it would be hard to jump Buff St. ahead of UWW just from sheer prior positions, but should UWW remain that high if it is about this year?  In the end I agree, it will play out in the next couple of weeks.  I also agree that Brockport has to enter the discussion as a team that should be ranked higher since they dominated the game with Buff St.  Brockport will get its due or disappear in the next couple of weeks as they play Kean and Rowan on the road.  Win both and they have to be top 10.

[ADL70]

OOPS!  I initially knew CMU was not North Region, because I used the North Region team list in first setting up my 'watch list'.  But they are continually playing NR teams (between the NCAC agreement and the rest of the UAA), and I just eventually added them when they got to 3-0!

I have now scratched them back off the list!

Maybe the powers-that-be will handle CMU like they did Salisbury and switch their regions now that their scheduling has changed. I do know that for a time, after joining the E8 but before they were switched, the Gulls were getting votes in the fan polls for both the South and East Regions.

This is the last year of the NCAC-UAA agreement.  I suspect next year you will see more games against South teams.  Then in 2014 the will be playing in a South conference, the PAC.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The situation is virtually unprecedented here.  The last time a #1 team lost in the regular season was Mount Union in 2005.  And that was to a league rival (ONU) who was a known quantity and had a good team (ONU was preseason #5 in 2005, and was #20 at the time of that win...side note: ONU did not make the playoffs that year...probably should have.  The top of the OAC was nasty that year...back to the post). 

Agreed - I was only a sophomore that year, but followed the national Division III scene and I knew that Ohio Northern was a solid program and was very tough that year.  It was shocking that they beat Mount Union, but in my mind this is FAR more surprising.

Re: the top of the OAC that season - although they do only play one nonconference game each, it's worth noting that the OAC lost a total of one nonconference game that year (then-bottom-dweller Heidelberg, who went 0-10) - every other team, top to bottom, won every nonconference game they played.  Their second playoff entry, Capital, won two playoff games before falling 34-31 in a rematch with Mount Union.  Wow.

This Buffalo State situation is different.  Buffalo State has been down for a lot of years now.  They had to bus 11 hours to the game.  They don't have familiarity with Whitewater.  And then they blew up everything we thought we knew about Buffalo State and UW-Whitewater.   

Agreed again.

Personally, I absolutely would rank Buffalo State ahead of Whitewater (which I realize brings Brockport into a tertiary converstion, but that just goes to show how entangled these ballots can get). 

Today, Buffalo State > UWW.  That's real.  That result will get some more flesh and context as these two teams play through their demanding conference schedules. 

Bingo.  In my mind, today Buff State has to be ranked ahead of UWW.  Whether you rank them #5 and #6 or #22 and #23, they just have to be FOR NOW.  As you enumerate later in your post, if UWW runs over their next few WIAC opponents, they'll have their chance to climb back up in the polls.  Same applies to Buff State in the opposite direction - if they lose a couple of E8 games, they'll fall behind UWW because we'll have some data to show that the results may have been a fluke.  It will all come out right in the end.

[wally_wabash]

Re: the top of the OAC that season - although they do only play one nonconference game each, it's worth noting that the OAC lost a total of one nonconference game that year (then-bottom-dweller Heidelberg, who went 0-10) - every other team, top to bottom, won every nonconference game they played.  Their second playoff entry, Capital, won two playoff games before falling 34-31 in a rematch with Mount Union.  Wow.

We needn't talk about Capital and the 2005 playoffs any further.  Thanks.   

[smedindy]

I disagree with the knee-jerk reaction to a potential fluke result, but the data will wash in the end. I just want to see it before I adjust my notions.

[New Tradition]

Re: the top of the OAC that season - although they do only play one nonconference game each, it's worth noting that the OAC lost a total of one nonconference game that year (then-bottom-dweller Heidelberg, who went 0-10) - every other team, top to bottom, won every nonconference game they played.  Their second playoff entry, Capital, won two playoff games before falling 34-31 in a rematch with Mount Union.  Wow.

We needn't talk about Capital and the 2005 playoffs any further.  Thanks.   

For once I concur with Wally.

[wally_wabash]

I'm really excited to see what we did with this this week.  On the edge of my seat here.

[Raider 68]

I think NC is better than Witt. I think NC lost because of the trip and it was just 'one of those things'. Heck, Mt. Union lost once in the regular season at some point in the somewhat recent past. At least I can remember it....

Smedindy,

Mount Union lost to Ohio Northern 21-14 in 2005 and has not lost a regular season game since!