FB: Region 4 fan poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

2021 Week 4 North Region Fan Poll

https://imgur.com/a/UuSewZB

[HOPEful]

1. I don't know how anyone can argue for ranking Mount ahead of North Central right now.

2. I don't know how one voter can rank John Carroll 8th but Aurora 4th... feels like if you punish John Carroll for competitive losses to W&J and Mount, you'd punish Aurora more for losing to St. Johns and getting crushed by North Central. I can understand being high or low on both teams based on how to feel about those 2 loses... It just feel like if you're going to be high on Aurora, you should be even higher on John Carroll.

[Dr. Acula]

As the lone Mount voter I will disclose that it was not me who voted Mount #1.  I'd be more inclined to vote them #3 than #1 given what I've watched of their games to date.

I was relieved to see the 9-10 spots kind of spread out with a big drop off from 8 in terms of points.  I had a hard time with those last couple spots.  I watched the majority of OWU's games against Otterbein and Allegheny.  They aren't good.  I think those two opponents were both bad teams this year and those games seemed fairly evenly matched.  I should have maybe put Denison in that spot on my ballot because I think they're better than OWU.  There's always next week.

[HOPEful]

As the lone Mount voter I will disclose that it was not me who voted Mount #1.  I'd be more inclined to vote them #3 than #1 given what I've watched of their games to date.

I was relieved to see the 9-10 spots kind of spread out with a big drop off from 8 in terms of points.  I had a hard time with those last couple spots.  I watched the majority of OWU's games against Otterbein and Allegheny.  They aren't good.  I think those two opponents were both bad teams this year and those games seemed fairly evenly matched.  I should have maybe put Denison in that spot on my ballot because I think they're better than OWU.  There's always next week.

Agreed on both accounts. My critique was not meant as an indictment on Mount, but that I don't believe that any team can do more than North Central has done to firmly place themselves as #1, both regionally and nationally. They are the reigning champions, absolutely demolished a ranked Aurora team, and beat a Wheaton team that might just be worthy of the #2 ranking nationally, at their place...

I am much more open to the argument that Mount should be ranked #2 in the nation than I am to #1 in the region. To me, North Central is the clear #1 team in the country currently, and the debate starts at 2-5 over where MHB, WW, Mount, and Wheaton should be placed.

[wally_wabash]

2. I don't know how one voter can rank John Carroll 8th but Aurora 4th... feels like if you punish John Carroll for competitive losses to W&J and Mount, you'd punish Aurora more for losing to St. Johns and getting crushed by North Central. I can understand being high or low on both teams based on how to feel about those 2 loses... It just feel like if you're going to be high on Aurora, you should be even higher on John Carroll.

It's me.  I've been off of JCU really since they got pantsed by Randolph Macon in the tournament a few years ago.  Have they beaten anybody that's really good since 2016? 

I do think Aurora being one yard and a tremendous defensive play away from winning at St. John's is a better result than JCU not giving up 45 to Mount Union.  I understand the POV that it was "competitive" but from what I saw of UMU/JCU, UMU was always under control even if the scoreboard didn't light up- and maybe that informs us more about Mount Union than it does John Carroll. 

Maybe I'm too harsh on JCU and too forgiving on Aurora, but really what my ballot indicates is that there are three national championship contenders in this region and then there is a massive (and I mean massive) separation, and then you can cover the next 12 or so teams with a postage stamp because they're all kind of interchangeably ok.  There's more space on my ballot here between 3 and 4 than there is from 4 to like the next 10-12 teams I considered. 

[HOPEful]

This is why I asked. Great answer that I fully accept. Thanks Wally!

2. I don't know how one voter can rank John Carroll 8th but Aurora 4th... feels like if you punish John Carroll for competitive losses to W&J and Mount, you'd punish Aurora more for losing to St. Johns and getting crushed by North Central. I can understand being high or low on both teams based on how to feel about those 2 loses... It just feel like if you're going to be high on Aurora, you should be even higher on John Carroll.

It's me.  I've been off of JCU really since they got pantsed by Randolph Macon in the tournament a few years ago.  Have they beaten anybody that's really good since 2016? 

I do think Aurora being one yard and a tremendous defensive play away from winning at St. John's is a better result than JCU not giving up 45 to Mount Union.  I understand the POV that it was "competitive" but from what I saw of UMU/JCU, UMU was always under control even if the scoreboard didn't light up- and maybe that informs us more about Mount Union than it does John Carroll. 

Maybe I'm too harsh on JCU and too forgiving on Aurora, but really what my ballot indicates is that there are three national championship contenders in this region and then there is a massive (and I mean massive) separation, and then you can cover the next 12 or so teams with a postage stamp because they're all kind of interchangeably ok.  There's more space on my ballot here between 3 and 4 than there is from 4 to like the next 10-12 teams I considered.

[Dr. Acula]

2. I don't know how one voter can rank John Carroll 8th but Aurora 4th... feels like if you punish John Carroll for competitive losses to W&J and Mount, you'd punish Aurora more for losing to St. Johns and getting crushed by North Central. I can understand being high or low on both teams based on how to feel about those 2 loses... It just feel like if you're going to be high on Aurora, you should be even higher on John Carroll.

It's me.  I've been off of JCU really since they got pantsed by Randolph Macon in the tournament a few years ago.  Have they beaten anybody that's really good since 2016? 

I do think Aurora being one yard and a tremendous defensive play away from winning at St. John's is a better result than JCU not giving up 45 to Mount Union.  I understand the POV that it was "competitive" but from what I saw of UMU/JCU, UMU was always under control even if the scoreboard didn't light up- and maybe that informs us more about Mount Union than it does John Carroll. 

Maybe I'm too harsh on JCU and too forgiving on Aurora, but really what my ballot indicates is that there are three national championship contenders in this region and then there is a massive (and I mean massive) separation, and then you can cover the next 12 or so teams with a postage stamp because they're all kind of interchangeably ok.  There's more space on my ballot here between 3 and 4 than there is from 4 to like the next 10-12 teams I considered.

This is so true.  The drop off after the top 3 is as big as I can recall.  And from 4 on down there really wouldn't be any team in there that would surprise me beating any other team ranked above them (aside from OWU as I mentioned earlier).  This week Berg is 9 and JCU 4.  It wouldn't surprise me if Berg beat JCU.  I don't think they will, but if they did I wouldn't even give it a second thought.  I wish I could say that's because the region is that deep with quality teams, but...

[HOPEful]

This is so true.  The drop off after the top 3 is as big as I can recall.  And from 4 on down there really wouldn't be any team in there that would surprise me beating any other team ranked above them (aside from OWU as I mentioned earlier).  This week Berg is 9 and JCU 4.  It wouldn't surprise me if Berg beat JCU.  I don't think they will, but if they did I wouldn't even give it a second thought.  I wish I could say that's because the region is that deep with quality teams, but...

I too agree. Although you could argue the dropoff isn't any bigger than it's ever been, it's just from 3 to 4 instead of from Mount to 2.

I think what I'm guilty of attempting to do is find that "next tier" of teams... teams that are well below the top 3 but a step above the rest of the pack. John Carroll and Aurora feel closer to that place for me... still, it would be nice to see them win a close one to a superior opponent vs. keeping it close but ultimately losing.

[wally_wabash]

When I'm reaching around for that next tier of teams below the national title contenders, I'm hunting for teams that I think can win a playoff game or two.  The region usually has a handful of those. Two have graduated to the upper tier and that thins the next tier herd a little- but even after that, is there one team below the top three the NRFP that you trust to win a playoff game?  I'm not sure the region has that right now, and that's a pretty new development. 

[D3fanboy]

When I'm reaching around for that next tier of teams below the national title contenders, I'm hunting for teams that I think can win a playoff game or two.  The region usually has a handful of those. Two have graduated to the upper tier and that thins the next tier herd a little- but even after that, is there one team below the top three the NRFP that you trust to win a playoff game?  I'm not sure the region has that right now, and that's a pretty new development.

JCU, the greatest 1-2 team of all time, probably beats an east coast/midwest conference champ.  BW is the better of the two other OAC teams, but BW will BW and lose to Musky or ONU.  If BW plays to their potential, they can win a 1st rd game and be right there in the 2nd rd game

[HOPEful]

JCU, the greatest 1-2 team of all time, probably beats an east coast/midwest conference champ.  BW is the better of the two other OAC teams, but BW will BW and lose to Musky or ONU.  If BW plays to their potential, they can win a 1st rd game and be right there in the 2nd rd game

This is so dependent on the draw to me... The Ohio teams have the geographic advantage of potentially getting a Randolph Macon or Muhlenberg vs. the rest of the region, that are much more likely to be sent to the slaughter in Naperville, Alliance, Wheaton, or Whitewater. Even the teams that have been "lucking out" and getting sent to Iowa to play Central or Wartburg haven't really had success. So again, my next tier still looks like Aurora and John Carroll, because they've been right there against teams like St. Johns and Washington and Jefferson both this year and in the playoffs recently (Aurora in 2019 and JC in 2018 and the deep run in 2016 isn't THAT far off past)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

2021 Week 5 North Region Fan Poll

https://imgur.com/a/UuSewZB

[Captain_Joe08]

Still now used to having nearly a half dozen ORV's nearly halfway through the season. But the results for most have been semi-murky. I had to resist dropping Wabash further that 8 after needing OT to win.

[HOPEful]

Still now used to having nearly a half dozen ORV's nearly halfway through the season. But the results for most have been semi-murky. I had to resist dropping Wabash further that 8 after needing OT to win.

I dropped them to 9. Usually, I'm more of the mindset of gearing towards resume vs. "the eye test"... but after the top 4, with the exception of a couple head-to-head results and close loses to elite teams, there are no clear differentiating wins/loses to go by resume alone. So my rankings lean towards, who do I think right now would beat who on a neutral site...

By that metric, I'm willing to elevate John Carroll and Aurora higher than their records would indicate.

[Whitecarrera]

I've got to admit, I'm a little surprised by the sentiment for Aurora.
They lost to a good team, they lost BIG to North Central, and they've run up the score on three bad teams.
The rest of their schedule is filled with average teams.
They should walk through their generally weak conference and go to the playoffs, but that's about it.

And also (admittedly, I'm still trying to figure out the new regional structures), but isn't Aurora along with the NACC in Region 5?