FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

26 year old TE Trey McJunkin is, unfortunately, out for the year after injuring his knee against Carroll. They (and NCC) both have a lot of superseniors. Wheaton's defense has 11 seniors and I believe all but 2 of them are 5th or 6th year seniors. Wheaton's Offense has 7 of 11 seniors and 5 of those are either 5th or 6th year guys I think.

[HOPEful]

North Central has flaws....

There are a couple teams in the top tier that have that profile. I think NCC is the strong favorite, but they aren't unbeatable.

I was definitely being facetious with the comment that NC lacks flaws 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The ballots are finally all in.

Week 9

[wally_wabash]

Almost consensus! Amazing. 

[Dr. Acula]

I'll raise my hand as column 1 as the only OAC (and Mount) pollster.  I watched the entire ONU game and felt anything other than dropping Mount to 3 was disingenuous on my part.  Injuries and good ONU game plan be damned, that's a team that lost to Cap the week before.  I expect more from Mount.  Sure the OAC is a tough slate, but not that tough IMO.  ONU lost to Musky earlier also.  Maybe I'm too hard but I'd take Wheaton on a neutral field over Mount right now so I voted accordingly.

[Li'l Giant]

I think this might be the first time that I've ever had my ballot be the same as the final result

[HOPEful]

I'll raise my hand as column 1 as the only OAC (and Mount) pollster.  I watched the entire ONU game and felt anything other than dropping Mount to 3 was disingenuous on my part.  Injuries and good ONU game plan be damned, that's a team that lost to Cap the week before.  I expect more from Mount.  Sure the OAC is a tough slate, but not that tough IMO.  ONU lost to Musky earlier also.  Maybe I'm too hard but I'd take Wheaton on a neutral field over Mount right now so I voted accordingly.

As one would have guessed, I am the other pollster to drop Mount to 3. You hit on the head my reasoning. Right now, I'd take Wheaton on a neutral field.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

If JCU beats BW next week, it probably keeps both of them out of the playoffs right?

[HOPEful]

If JCU beats BW next week, it probably keeps both of them out of the playoffs right?

Yes. But to be brutally honest, I think both are out regardless. Even if Baldwin Wallace wins out, I don't see them getting in. With only five pool C bids, odds are...

1. Goes to the WIAC #2.
2. Goes to Hardin Simmons.
3-5 will go to some order of Randolph Macon, Wheaton, Whitworth, or John Hopkins. If Bethel were to beat St. John's in the MIAC Championship, they'd take one of these. If a bunch of dominos fall, I think Washington and Jefferson comes off the table before BW. And I could see a two loss Oshkosh team coming off before them too.

I just don't see any scenario in which Baldwin Wallace is selected.

[HOPEful]

With Whitworth losing, I will amend my no chance scenario to a slim chance...

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I think Baldwin Wallace has a better chance of being selected than Wheaton right now. My five picks as of now are La Crosse, LL #2 (Ithaca or Union), Birmingham-Southern, Baldwin Wallace, Hardin-Simmons.

Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1) plus BW should have their SoS increase while Wheaton will decrease next week. Not having a 3rd CCIW team ranked plus that sub-.500 SoS is going to cost Wheaton which sucks because they should definitely be in.

[HOPEful]

I think Baldwin Wallace has a better chance of being selected than Wheaton right now. My five picks as of now are La Crosse, LL #2 (Ithaca or Union), Birmingham-Southern, Baldwin Wallace, Hardin-Simmons.

Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1) plus BW should have their SoS increase while Wheaton will decrease next week. Not having a 3rd CCIW team ranked plus that sub-.500 SoS is going to cost Wheaton which sucks because they should definitely be in.

On paper, I agree. But I just don't think the committee will keep them out. If they're going on just the computer data, then why even have a committee in the first place. I still think Wheaton gets in.

[WRMUalum13]

I think Baldwin Wallace has a better chance of being selected than Wheaton right now. My five picks as of now are La Crosse, LL #2 (Ithaca or Union), Birmingham-Southern, Baldwin Wallace, Hardin-Simmons.

Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1) plus BW should have their SoS increase while Wheaton will decrease next week. Not having a 3rd CCIW team ranked plus that sub-.500 SoS is going to cost Wheaton which sucks because they should definitely be in.

How do they stack up against regionally ranked opponents?
On paper, I agree. But I just don't think the committee will keep them out. If they're going on just the computer data, then why even have a committee in the first place. I still think Wheaton gets in.

[USee]

due to severe underperformance in a down year in the CCIW, the Thunder will have only the game against North Central as an RRO result most likely.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

How do they stack up against regionally ranked opponents?

The numbers after a team are D3 record, Strength of Schedule, and vs Regionally Ranked Opponents. So Wheaton is 8-1, have a SoS of .495, and are 0-1 vRRO.

The order I have teams being selected...
Round 1: La Crosse (6-1, .608, 1-1)
Round 2: Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) (the LL is still completely undecided. If RPI beats Union and Ithaca beats Cortland, Ithaca is one loss pool C, if Union beats RPI then Ithaca is pool A and Union would be one loss pool C. If RPI wins and Ithaca loses that opens up a pool C bid)
Round 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1)
Round 4: Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1)
Round 5: Hardin-Simmons (7-1, .528, 0-1)

Left at the table would be
Region 1: Salve Regina (8-2, .492, 1-1)
Region 2: Union (8-1, .530, 0-1) (Union would have a 2nd loss if Ithaca was in pool C... if they win Ithaca wouldn't take a pool C above but Union would probably be picked there instead with a RRO win and SoS boost) or Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1)
Region 4: Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2)
Region 5: Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1)
Region 6: Bethel (8-1, .541, 0-1) (would pick up a 2nd loss to St John's to be pool C) or Oshkosh (5-2, .587, 0-2)

While I think Wheaton should definitely be in, who are you kicking out to fit them? The only one I selected without a RRO win was Hardin-Simmons... who have a better SoS, and their only loss was also to a region #1 by a closer amount than Wheaton.

Imagine if Bethel beats St John's (9-0, .615, 2-0) and knocks the Johnnies into pool C... they'd be first off the board and move the bubble line up a spot.

On paper, I agree. But I just don't think the committee will keep them out. If they're going on just the computer data, then why even have a committee in the first place. I still think Wheaton gets in.

Even going just on the computer data, someone has to determine how the different data line up with each other. A computer can't really compare (8-2, .600, 0-2) vs (9-1, .540, 0-1) vs (9-1, .485, 1-0). That's what the committee is for.
We could go the other way and say if the committee isn't going to use the criteria, why have the criteria in the first place? Then we'd just let the committee pick whoever they felt like as FBS does for their "playoff". I don't think that's much better.