FB: Region 4 fan poll

[HOPEful]

I'm the contrarian this week. I flopped back to Hope 2 and DePauw 3. I just think they remind me a lot of last year DePauw and Alma. As for the seven spot, I game my vote to BW. Holding a two score lead over John Carroll at halftime impressed me in a spot no one really had yet...

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

I'm the contrarian this week. I flopped back to Hope 2 and DePauw 3. I just think they remind me a lot of last year DePauw and Alma. As for the seven spot, I game my vote to BW. Holding a two score lead over John Carroll at halftime impressed me in a spot no one really had yet...

I don't remember why specifically, but I remember the D3 Experts talking about how NPI doesn't work well for football because the small sample size of games.  I think the "Right" 40 teams will get into the playoffs, but the actual ranking probably doesn't reflect the real strengths of each team.

I haven't watched it yet, but this podcast may explain the issues:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94_NTM2k1nc

[HOPEful]

According to the current NPI ranking, the Region 4 order is DePauw, Hope, Mount Union, Marietta, Adrian, Alma, John Carroll, Albion, Wabash, Mount St Joseph in the top 10.

Hope's next two are Adrian and Albion. Mount still has Marietta. Let's say both teams win out. Is it possible a potential playoff game between the two would be in Holland and not Alliance?!

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

According to the current NPI ranking, the Region 4 order is DePauw, Hope, Mount Union, Marietta, Adrian, Alma, John Carroll, Albion, Wabash, Mount St Joseph in the top 10.

Hope's next two are Adrian and Albion. Mount still has Marietta. Let's say both teams win out. Is it possible a potential playoff game between the two would be in Holland and not Alliance?!

Follow Logan Hanson on X.  His latest projection has Mount Union with the #6 Seed and Hope at #11.

[wally_wabash]

I'm the contrarian this week. I flopped back to Hope 2 and DePauw 3. I just think they remind me a lot of last year DePauw and Alma. As for the seven spot, I game my vote to BW. Holding a two score lead over John Carroll at halftime impressed me in a spot no one really had yet...

I don't remember why specifically, but I remember the D3 Experts talking about how NPI doesn't work well for football because the small sample size of games.  I think the "Right" 40 teams will get into the playoffs, but the actual ranking probably doesn't reflect the real strengths of each team.

I haven't watched it yet, but this podcast may explain the issues:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94_NTM2k1nc

That episode of the Datacast is required viewing for anybody who has a passing interest in this stuff.  They really break it down very well, including sharing an example of how, in this version of NPI, losing to the best team in the division (by any margin) is worse than beating the worst team in the division (by any margin)...but also how beating the worst team in the division isn't particularly helpful, which I think is an important and overlooked note in all of the hand-wringing over NPI. 

Totally agree that NPI isn't perfect and I think they need to do better with the win%/SOS ratio (though no algorithm that completely ignores MOV is going to be very good), but in the end it'll get more or less the right 40.  The bigger shock to the system (IMO) will be the seeding situation.  For instance, UMU at a #6 seed, is likely to play on the road in the QF if the top seeds hold.  I think in Logan's most recent mock bracket, Mount Union would travel to Salisbury for a QF game, which is a thing that would almost never have happened previously. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Week 8

Rank	Team	Points	Prev	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Mount Union (7-0)	49	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	DePauw (7-0)	40	2	2	2	2	4	2	2	2
3	Hope (7-0)	35	3	3	3	4	2	3	3	3
4	Marietta (7-0)	30	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4
5	John Carroll (5-2)	20	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5
6	Alma (5-2)	13	6	6	7	6	6	7	5	6
7	Wabash (6-1)	9	7	7	6	7	7	6	7	7

Voters: #1OacFan, FCGG, HOPEful, Kira & Jaxon's Dad, Li'l Giant, smedindy, wally_wabash

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

My vote matches the Poll.  No results last week to shake much up.

This week's meaningful games:

MIAA
Albion at Hope

OAC
Nothing of note (Mount Union, JCU and Marietta should all cruise)

NCAC
Dennison at Wabash

HCAC
Mt. St. Joseph Off

[HOPEful]

I'm still the outlier in column 4. I debated long and hard putting Marietta at 2, not 3. That beat down of BW was impressive. I decided they'll have their chance to move up the last two games of the season.

The most points Hope has given up this season is 18 against Kalamazoo (and that was after going up 35-3 and treating the rest of the game like a scrimmage)... When splitting hairs trying to decide who should be ranked higher between Marietta, Hope, and DePauw, I really start splitting hairs. Berry lost again and Denison dropping 34 on DePauw both make me lean Hope. If Hope struggles against Albion or DePauw blows Wabash out of the water, I'll surely flop again. I'm slightly surprised I'm the only one that's voting Hope and now Marietta ahead of DePauw. Perhaps and orange and blue tinted glasses are distorting things for me.

[wally_wabash]

DePauw shutting out Berry on the road and Hope dismantling Alma, also on the road, are both way more impressive wins than anything Marietta has done to date.  Which is not to say that Marietta couldn't be better than those two, but the other two have an actual result that makes me take notice.  Marietta gets their chance in a couple of weeks. 

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Current NPI Data

7.  Hope
8.  DePauw
11. Mount Union
15. Marietta
51. Wabash
56. Alma
57. Albion
64. John Carroll
75. Mt. St. Joseph
79. Adrian

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Only received 6 ballots this week. Every single voter had the exact same ballot as last week. At least we finally have a game between two teams in the rankings.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Updated NPI Data

6.  Mount Union
7.  Hope
12. DePauw
27. Marietta
30. Wabash
45. Alma
50. John Carroll
62. Albion
75. Mt. St. Joseph
91. Adrian

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Week 10

Rank	Team	Points	Prev	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Mount Union (9-0)	49	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	DePauw (9-0)	41	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2
3	Hope (9-0)	35	3	4	3	2	3	3	3	3
4	Marietta (8-1)	29	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4
5	John Carroll (7-2)	21	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
6	Wabash (8-1)	12	7	6	6	7	6	6	7	6
7	Alma (7-2)	8	6	-	7	6	7	7	6	7
ORV	Baldwin Wallace (6-3)	1		7

Voters: #1OacFan, FCGG, HOPEful, Kira & Jaxon's Dad, Li'l Giant, smedindy, wally_wabash

[Captainred81]

This is it right here.  Except for the BW receiving votes, this is it.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Do we have a final regular season poll?