FB: Region 4 fan poll

[smedindy]

It's way too early to rely on Massey for anything, and this from a data and metrics geek. One game - no one is really connected and last year's results are still biased in there. Any results metrics like Massey or Sagarin would have too much variability baked in there and I'd suggest waiting until week 4 or 5 - when everyone's played four games and probably finished their non-conference slate.

[smedindy]

Also, a media guide 'returning starter' is a bit, well, um, loose with the definition at times.

If an OL or DL starts one or two games during the year, he probably is listed as a returning starter. Also, what do you do about receivers, backs and defenders who play on alternate series, or come in during 3rd down or in power situations? Starters? No. Experienced? Yep.

Many times, starters are given to the SID during the week by the coach, but the players who play the first offensive play are different and it's not changed in Stat Crew. You have to be vigilant to get this done properly. This happens when teams open in sets to take advantage of the other teams strengths or weaknesses.

[Gregory Sager]

^ This. Touches upon a number of pet peeves of mine.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I had Wabash even farther ahead of Witt than most (#3 Wabash vs. #8 Witt on my ballot), but have absolutely no problem with a ranking putting Witt ahead.  Good grief, we are 1 or sometimes 0 games into the season.  No one knows squat about the teams yet.  Give it some time - this weekend should help considerably with some of the matchups; the next few weeks even more.

[bashgiant]

Witt returned 12 starters... Wabash only a bit more at 14.

This isn't correct. Witt returns 7 starters from their game against Wabash. Wabash returns 15, plus Tyler Holmes and Mason Zurek.

I got those numbers from the Wittenberg season outlook and Wabash media guide respectively. Maybe Witt had some starters injured last season before they played Wabash that are now back. All I know is that if the numbers truly wrong, go blame whoever wrote the guides.

Anyways I think this discussion has about run it's course (at least for the middle of September anyways) but I have two final comments.
1) This isn't the first time a fan of a team has been unhappy with where I've ranked them. I recall a Heidelberg fan a couple seasons ago didn't like that I had them ranked 4th or 5th (coincidentally behind Witt) near the end of the season when all the other ballots had them 2nd and talked about how a game between them wouldn't be close and they'd shut their offense down... Heidelberg proceeded to give up 52 points to Witt in a first round loss. Not surprisingly he didn't have anything to say after that. Easy to have bravado beforehand. Not so easy to admit mistakes. Now if I still have Witt ranked higher before the Wabash game (which is no certainty) and Wabash wins easily... I'll admit I was wrong. Are you willing to do the same if Wabash goes down?

2) If you're unhappy with how I've ranked them, you may want to go yell at Massey. His ratings have Wabash even lower than I do at 6th behind NCC, Mount, JC, Heidi, and Witt.

Am I saying Witt would blow out Wabash if they played this weekend? Absolutely not. Would a Wabash win surprise me? Not at all. But if you asked me to make a bet straight up this instant I'd take Witt. Now if you gave me Wabash plus a few points... say 4 or so... I'd probably take them.

The good news is we have 2 more months to observe the two teams and adjust how we perceive them accordingly.

I would say you betting on Witt is a good sign for Wabash considering the bet you made last week Hampden-Sydney @ Wabash (-3.5). Just saying.

[ADL70]

Also, a media guide 'returning starter' is a bit, well, um, loose with the definition at times.

If an OL or DL starts one or two games during the year, he probably is listed as a returning starter. Also, what do you do about receivers, backs and defenders who play on alternate series, or come in during 3rd down or in power situations? Starters? No. Experienced? Yep.

Many times, starters are given to the SID during the week by the coach, but the players who play the first offensive play are different and it's not changed in Stat Crew. You have to be vigilant to get this done properly. This happens when teams open in sets to take advantage of the other teams strengths or weaknesses.

At CWRU to be considered a returning starter the player must have started the majority of games and the starters listed in the box score are those observed in on the first offensive play.

[smedindy]

Not everyone does that ADL, that's the point.

[USee]

Adam,

Augie is no longer a wing-T option team and hasn't been for a couple of head coaches now. They run a shotgun spread formation and throw it around quite a bit.

Don't know which Auggie team you've been watching but I coached at MSJ last year and they ran the triple and the wing t. I watched three quarters last Saturday at MSJ and they were still running it.

I am talking about the Augie team that is spelled with one "g" not two. The one I have seen play live for about 30 years. Which one are you talking about?  When Barnes was at the helm he changed the entire offense to a mulitple spread, shotgun offense and scrapped the wing-T. They ran that for a couple years and the Barnes left and they hired Cushman. He ran the spread and morphed back into an option scheme for the run game. In the last couple years they are running an option running offense out of the spread and a spread passing game,  but it is not the wing-T.

I'm telling you. They lined up with wings,  orbited, and ran the hell out off the option. They may not be wing t all the time but they ran out of it frequently last year against us and this year.

Maybe, but do you have Witt ranked ahead of Wabash? 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Also, a media guide 'returning starter' is a bit, well, um, loose with the definition at times.

If an OL or DL starts one or two games during the year, he probably is listed as a returning starter. Also, what do you do about receivers, backs and defenders who play on alternate series, or come in during 3rd down or in power situations? Starters? No. Experienced? Yep.

Many times, starters are given to the SID during the week by the coach, but the players who play the first offensive play are different and it's not changed in Stat Crew. You have to be vigilant to get this done properly. This happens when teams open in sets to take advantage of the other teams strengths or weaknesses.

Man, I spend one day in a car and miss all of this.

First, excellent points here, smed. I've always tried to take a more qualitative approach than just a number of returning starters for the reasons you list here...what I really want to know is the number of returning "experienced guys" - if my team rotated two kids at right guard last season and the official "starter" graduated but another kid who played half the series over the course of a seaso returns, I like my chances lining that guy up at RG next year. Similarly, with skill guys, I want to see who got the ball in their hands some. If a guy caught 15 or 20 balls as the 3rd/4th WR, or got 50-60 rushing attempts over the course of a season, I like having that guy back whether we classify him a "returning starter" or not.

Second, I can't believe how much energy was spent arguing about Witt and Wabash yesterday. FCGrizzlies is not being THAT unreasonable, guys. Witt rolled y'all last year, at home, and while they may have lost an awful lot, they brought back enough to give Butle a much better run in game 1. That doesn't mean 2014 Witt is actually better than 2013 Witt (since 2014 Butler and 2013 Butler are two different teams), but I don't think we should be THAT dismissive of the possibility Witt could reload pretty rapidly.  You guys have seen this story before, you're all fans of a really good program: when you have a good coach and good system in place, you can take heavy graduation losses and keep a darned high level of performance year-to-year.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Hey, Wes, where's the poll??!!  I know that this week I'm not the hold-up.

[HCAlum86]

As an outside observer, the SCIAC is a quality conference. IMHO, its top level teams are better than the top level teams in the North Region of the other conferences with the exception of the OAC and the CCIW.

You forgot the Minnesota Conference as well. Other than that, you're just saying that the top level teams in the SCIAC are better than the teams in the North Region, with the convenient exception of the three sole conferences that have combined to give us essentially every national champion of the last two decades...

If that's what you're saying than I think that Belgium's military is better than the United States' when you exclude all of their tanks, inter-continental missiles, cruise missiles, drone capabilities, technological innovations, soldiers, guns, and ammo.

[Mr. Ypsi]

As an outside observer, the SCIAC is a quality conference. IMHO, its top level teams are better than the top level teams in the North Region of the other conferences with the exception of the OAC and the CCIW.

You forgot the Minnesota Conference as well. Other than that, you're just saying that the top level teams in the SCIAC are better than the teams in the North Region, with the convenient exception of the three sole conferences that have combined to give us essentially every national champion of the last two decades...

If that's what you're saying than I think that Belgium's military is better than the United States' when you exclude all of their tanks, inter-continental missiles, cruise missiles, drone capabilities, technological innovations, soldiers, guns, and ammo.

The MIAC is West region, not North.

But I think the NCAC is probably better than the SCIAC.

[smedindy]

The SCIAC is a pretty decent conference, though. Massey had them rated right above the NCAC in 2013. The issue is that the SCIAC's non-conference is pretty limited so they play a lot of NWC teams, and those teams ain't hay. Plus they have just a nine-game schedule and with Chapman, only two non-league games.

Cal Lutheran played Pacific Lutheran and Linfield last year. This year they swapped Willamette for Linfield, but the Bearcats aren't scrubs.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Hey, Wes, what's (or who's) the hold-up on the poll?

[DPU3619]

I was the hold up. Sorry gang. Had them since Tuesday. Just not enough hours in the day. Here's the Week 3 NRFP.

1.  Mount Union         80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2.  North Central        71 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3)
3.  Wabash                62 pts (2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5)
4.  John Carroll          56 pts (3, 3, 4, 4, 4 ,4, 5, 5)
5.  Wittenberg           47 pts (4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6)
6.  Heidelberg           36 pts (4, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8)
7.  Wheaton              35 pts (5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8)
8.  Illinois Wesleyan   29 pts (6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8)
9.  Adrian                  12 pts (9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, -)
10. Franklin                8 pts (9, 9, 9, 10, 10, -, -, -)

ARV
Ohio Northern              2 pts (10, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Mount St Joseph           1 pt  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Rose-Hulman                1 pt  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)


The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, USee, wally_wabash, Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, NCF, Li'l Giant, and myself.