FB: Region 4 fan poll

smedindy · October 17, 2014, 02:39:41 PM

So if Bethel beats Chicago, say 28-21, you're STILL going to drop Chicago? Heck, if they stay within 7-10 points of Bethel up there I'd maybe raise their ranking.

smedindy · October 17, 2014, 02:47:05 PM

In thinking about rankings when a team faces someone out of their weight class, especially if it's a non-conference non-traditional opponent, on the road, I wouldn't penalize them for keeping it within expectations or bettering expectations while losing.

Massey has Bethel winning by 25 in his prediction algorithm. That may be a bit high, but there's not a lot of commonality in their universes (in ANY aspect, but the academic and institutional differences between Bethel and UC could probably be a weighty tome...so I'll keep this to their football universes). Objectively, Bethel's at least a two-three TD favorite, at home. If UC keeps it within those boundaries, good on them...

Most every team in the North would be underdogs at Bethel. Mt. Union wouldn't be. But even Wabash, JCU or North Central may be underdogs AT Bethel. If not, then a pick 'em or a spread within a couple of points. Yes, they lost to Wartburg to kick off the year, but Wartburg may have one of THOSE teams, which in a crowded West may end against a Purple (like it does here, alas...) and Bethel's hasn't let down since then.

FCGrizzliesGrad · October 17, 2014, 02:54:24 PM

Quote from: smedindy on October 17, 2014, 02:39:41 PM
So if Bethel beats Chicago, say 28-21, you're STILL going to drop Chicago? Heck, if they stay within 7-10 points of Bethel up there I'd maybe raise their ranking.

I've never said I was definitely dropping them. Just that another loss by a team in the lower rungs of the poll could create yet another shakeup and that it's a perfect time to go back and reevaluate their season.

USee · October 17, 2014, 03:00:14 PM

Smed,

Not sure if you were talking to me or that wabashing FCGriz dude but Chicago stays in poll no matter the result. I compare it to the beat down Mt Union puts on every OAC and undefeated #2 each year. They typically drop 3-4 spots in the top 25 or about 10-20%. That makes Chicago go from 7-9 in my poll.

As far as favorites @Bethel, NCC played in Arden Hills in the playoffs last year and put a 41-17 physical pounding on the undefeated Royals so I don't think I would be giving the Cardinals points in a rematch.

smedindy · October 17, 2014, 03:38:44 PM

I wasn't talking to you. USee.

But this isn't last year's NC team. Last year's NC team shoulda coulda woulda beaten Mt. Union. I don't think this year's can.

USee · October 17, 2014, 03:42:49 PM

Quote from: smedindy on October 17, 2014, 03:38:44 PM
I wasn't talking to you. USee.

But this isn't last year's NC team. Last year's NC team shoulda coulda woulda beaten Mt. Union. I don't think this year's can.

We aren't talking about Mt Union. You were talking about Bethel and NCC getting points. You really think Bethel is 24 pts better vs NCC than they were last year? And Mt Union isn't the same team either. Not sure if they are better or worse. Haven't played anybody yet.

smedindy · October 17, 2014, 03:52:29 PM

No, I didn't say NC was 24 points better. Did you read my post? I was talking about UC being that big of an underdog, not North Central.

QuoteMost every team in the North would be underdogs at Bethel. Mt. Union wouldn't be. But even Wabash, JCU or North Central may be underdogs AT Bethel. If not, then a pick 'em or a spread within a couple of points

USee · October 17, 2014, 05:08:25 PM

Quote from: smedindy on October 17, 2014, 03:52:29 PM
No, I didn't say NC was 24 points better. Did you read my post? I was talking about UC being that big of an underdog, not North Central.

QuoteMost every team in the North would be underdogs at Bethel. Mt. Union wouldn't be. But even Wabash, JCU or North Central may be underdogs AT Bethel. If not, then a pick 'em or a spread within a couple of points

The bold part is what I read. Am I missing something or did you say North Central would be an underdog AT Bethel? I just don't think I can agree that a team that won 41-17 last year would be an underdog with 15 of the same starters this year.

Did you say something different?

smedindy · October 17, 2014, 08:22:24 PM

Yes, I do. I guess the pollsters would too.

USee · October 17, 2014, 09:30:54 PM

Quote from: smedindy on October 17, 2014, 08:22:24 PM
Yes, I do. I guess the pollsters would too.

Those would be the same pollsters that ranked them 5th and 6th in the final poll last year? The same pollsters who have Bethel at 12, NCC at 13 and UWSP (undefeated w a win over NCC) at 14? Got it. Makes a lot of sense.

I don't know what logical argument there is that makes Bethel a favorite over NCC in any location.

smedindy · October 18, 2014, 02:03:04 AM

Your argument says maybe that North Central should be LOWER than 13.

Last year is last year by the way - this is this year.

USee · October 18, 2014, 09:17:13 AM

Quote from: smedindy on October 18, 2014, 02:03:04 AM
Your argument says maybe that North Central should be LOWER than 13.

Last year is last year by the way - this is this year.

Your assumption is that the pollsters are right. My argument simply highlights the inefficiency of data from a poll.

Last week is last week too. Do we totally ignore that? And if Last year was Last year why did you say

Quote from: smedindy on October 17, 2014, 03:38:44 PM

But this isn't last year's NC team. Last year's NC team shoulda coulda woulda beaten Mt. Union. I don't think this year's can.

The reality is this years team is different but results from less than a year ago when 2/3 of the players are the same people are not irrelevant. They are also not an absolute predictor of outcomes either but the data informs us. Otherwise on what basis are we ranking anybody? How do we know Mt Union is any good when they haven't played anybody yet? Does it have nothing to do with the fact they have won every league game since before SpongeBob Squarepants was born? Saying Last year is last year is a copout.

How many points are you giving me to take NCC @Bethel?

USee · October 18, 2014, 12:45:26 PM

Big game in Cincinnati today with Franklin @Mt St Joes. I have been high on MSJ all season and have thought they can beat Franklin. They have a good defense and running game I'll be interested to see if it matches up with Franklin.

FCGrizzliesGrad · October 18, 2014, 04:50:57 PM

Can we just cut this down to a Top 6 poll?
#7 Heidelberg lost, #8 Chicago is losing, #9 DePauw lost, #10 Mount St Joseph lost, #T12 Illinois Wesleyan I think is losing, #T12 Trine lost
Earlham nearly won today... maybe they could sneak in at 10th

wally_wabash · October 18, 2014, 05:31:47 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 18, 2014, 04:50:57 PM
Can we just cut this down to a Top 6 poll?
#7 Heidelberg lost, #8 Chicago is losing, #9 DePauw lost, #10 Mount St Joseph lost, #T12 Illinois Wesleyan I think is losing, #T12 Trine lost
Earlham nearly won today... maybe they could sneak in at 10th

IWU lost 7-2 to Augustana. Brutal. This is also the last time in 2014 that I'l mention IWU in this space.