FB: Region 4 fan poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I think you may have omitted the wrong team. There's a 9th place vote missing rather than a 10th place vote and I'm thinking you probably meant to omit Carnegie Mellon's 10th place vote.

[DPU3619]

I think you may have omitted the wrong team. There's a 9th place vote missing rather than a 10th place vote and I'm thinking you probably meant to omit Carnegie Mellon's 10th place vote.

We're both right.  The 10 was for Coe.  The 9 was for Carnegie Mellon.  I took them both out.  I forgot CMU wasn't in the North.  I was sure Coe wasn't.  Problem solved.

[wally_wabash]

I only made one change this week.  B-W out of my #10 spot, Otterbein in.  Barring a win against Mount Union down the road, I think I'm probably done with Baldwin-Wallace. 

There was some opportunity to shuffle things around.  Do I hit Wittenberg (#3) because they didn't lay waste to CWRU?  Do I flip IWU (#4) and NCC (#5) because of their MOV's this week?  Do I ding Allegheny (#7) for a ho-hummer against Oberlin?  Do I bump Wabash (#8) for a stellar game against CMU? 

Ultimately, I decided to let things sit for a week.  Witt's playing a non-league road game the week before their biggest game of the year.  Close game excused.  NCC closed the gap on IWU for me, but they've still got that pesky loss hanging around.  IWU gets a reprieve and we should get a good comparison for these two with NCC playing at Millikin this weekend.  Allegheny was almost guaranteed to have an exhale game (almost exhaled a bit too much though...39 scoreless minutes against Oberlin is not so good).  Wabash made a good case to move up, but for right now I think they still have to be behind Allegheny.   

My radar teams are basically the same as last week.  Franklin and OWU are just waiting for enough teams to lose (although they both did get leaped by Otterbein for me...Otterbein has the better result).  I'm also still watching Concordia-Chicago and Elmhurst and Millikin.

Through five weeks, I've pretty much stuck to the eye test and h2h results where appropriate.  After this week, everybody will be halfway through the season and I'll start taking a closer look at some other things like schedule strength and results against common opponents and factoring those things in as well.  Might cause a bit of a shakeup in my ballot next week. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Fear not - I have escaped North Dakota!  And just in time ... after two glorious weeks in the Black Hills and Teddy Roosevelt NP (sunny and 70s and 80s every day), we left Medora ND Tuesday morning; Wednesday night they got heavy snow!

I know the scores from last week, but little else.  I'll try to catch up this weekend, and WILL submit a ballot.  (Don't put too much stock in IWU's narrow escape from Millikin - that game is usually weird.  In 2009, IWU beat both NCC and Wheaton, plus Wabash in the tourney, but lost their only regular-season game, AT HOME, to 3-4 Millikin.  To underscore the weirdness, Millikin played NCC, IWU, and Wheaton in consecutive games - they lost to NCC and Wheaton by a combined 99-7! )

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I've submitted my ballot... it was quite difficult after the top 3.
I still don't see where all this Heidelberg love is coming from. I did move them up a spot to 7th this week but only because of two teams losing. Their opponents are a combined 3-23 this season.
Also Franklin is almost back on my ballot. I've got them up to 11th.

[DPU3619]

Here's the North Region Fan Poll for this week.  We're not getting any closer to a consensus.  5 different teams get a 2nd place vote.  We had a 9th place vote for a team not in the North.  It has been omitted.


1. Mount Union           80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. North Central          60 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6)
T3. Illinois Wesleyan    54 pts (2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6)
T3. Wheaton              54 pts (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 8)
5. Heidelberg              49 pts (2, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 7)
6. Wabash                 48 pts (4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6)
7. Otterbein               34 pts (2, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 8, 10)
8. Franklin                  22 pts (5, 7, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, -)
9. Wittenberg             20 pts (7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, -, -)
10. Concordia (Ill.)       6 pts  (9, 9, 10, 10, -, -, -, -)

ARV
Baldwin-Wallace           3 pts (9, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Elmhurst                     2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Wesleyan             2 pts (10, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                         1 pt (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)       

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by Wes Anderson, wally_wabash, smedindy, ADL70, Mr. Ypsi, FCGrizzlesGrad, newcardfan, and short.

[NCF]

Here's the North Region Fan Poll for this week.  We're not getting any closer to a consensus.  5 different teams get a 2nd place vote.  We had a 9th place vote for a team not in the North.  It has been omitted.


1. Mount Union           80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. North Central          60 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6)
T3. Illinois Wesleyan    54 pts (2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6)
T3. Wheaton              54 pts (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 8)
5. Heidelberg              49 pts (2, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 7)
6. Wabash                 48 pts (4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6)
7. Otterbein               34 pts (2, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 8, 10)
8. Franklin                  22 pts (5, 7, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, -)
9. Wittenberg             20 pts (7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, -, -)
10. Concordia (Ill.)       6 pts  (9, 9, 10, 10, -, -, -, -)

ARV
Baldwin-Wallace           3 pts (9, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Elmhurst                     2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Wesleyan             2 pts (10, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                         1 pt (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)       

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by Wes Anderson, wally_wabash, smedindy, ADL70, Mr. Ypsi, FCGrizzlesGrad, newcardfan, and short.

The CCIW begins to shape up next week when the three front runners finally begin play.

[Dr. Acula]

Here's the North Region Fan Poll for this week.  We're not getting any closer to a consensus.  5 different teams get a 2nd place vote.  We had a 9th place vote for a team not in the North.  It has been omitted.


1. Mount Union           80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. North Central          60 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6)
T3. Illinois Wesleyan    54 pts (2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6)
T3. Wheaton              54 pts (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 8)
5. Heidelberg              49 pts (2, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 7)
6. Wabash                 48 pts (4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6)
7. Otterbein               34 pts (2, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 8, 10)
8. Franklin                  22 pts (5, 7, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, -)
9. Wittenberg             20 pts (7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, -, -)
10. Concordia (Ill.)       6 pts  (9, 9, 10, 10, -, -, -, -)

ARV
Baldwin-Wallace           3 pts (9, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Elmhurst                     2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Wesleyan             2 pts (10, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                         1 pt (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)       

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by Wes Anderson, wally_wabash, smedindy, ADL70, Mr. Ypsi, FCGrizzlesGrad, newcardfan, and short.

The CCIW begins to shape up next week when the three front runners finally begin play.

And you'll get some OAC clarity this week with Ott playing at Berg.

[wally_wabash]

As promised, I started to take into account some additional factors like strength of schedule now that we're halfway through and those things have teeth.  I'm also looking a little more closely at quality wins since we're getting to a point where almost everybody has lost...we've seen that everybody can lose so I'm increasingly intererested in who you've actually beaten.  The lens change made a difference in my ballot this week. 

Mount Union is the exception to all of those principles.  I've been conditioned to believe that the win against Franklin is a quality win, but we won't really know until November.  UMU's SOS is also awful.  But they've won their games by a total score of 800-7 (unofficial) which is overwhelming evidence that they can be at the top of the rankings.  After UMU is where things shook up for me. 

Otterbein jumped from 10 to 2 this week.  They are undefeated and they have played a better schedule than the other undefeateds, namely Heidelberg who was #2 for me last week.  IWU slides up to 3,  Heidelberg down to 4.  I feel compelled to keep these undefeated teams from good leagues ahead of teams that have lost (and Concordia...sorry Cougs). 

Next we get into the 1-loss teams.  I have Wabash at 5, North Central at 6, Witt at 7, Wheaton at 8.  Wabash has a better win than North Central does and has played a slightly better schedule, per the math.  Neither Wheaton or Witt has a quality win, but Witt has a slightly better schedule so is ahead there for now. 

Then I went ahead and put Concordia-Chicago in at 9.  They have a really good SOS metric, and they now have a win of some note, having beat the team that just knocked off the favorite in the MWC. 

Franklin has re-entered at #10 for me.  It's tenuous.  Franklin needs to keep mashing people to stay in here because the math isn't favorable for them down the road. 

Just off the list and on the radar: B-W, OWU, Elmhurst, and Adrian.  Albion and Allegheny have drifted far away from the top 10. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Agreed re: CCIW and OAC clarity coming up soon. 

I'm surprised Baldwin-Wallace is still getting any votes, to be honest; they lost badly to the only really good team they played and have three one-score wins against teams in the bottom half of the OAC (although all were road games).  Although, now that I look at it, they'll probably float back up with a few winnable games in a row before ending with UMU and Heidelberg, and furthermore, it's hard for me to justify some of the ORV candidates as better than B-W:

Concordia-Chicago has a nice opening win over 5-1 Lake Forest, but other than that hasn't played anyone (and really won't for a while because the NATHC isn't that strong, Benedictine's win over Albion notwithstanding...while we're on that subject, who is still voting for 2-loss Albion at the bottom of the poll?  Albion has one quality win, but losses to 2-3 Benedictine and 4-2 Trine, neither of whom play in a particularly tough conference).

We'll figure out if Ohio Wesleyan belongs here on 10/20 and 10/27, respectively.  If they can win one of those games and show well in the other, they'll probably earn a lower-rung spot in the poll.

Also, just because I'm curious, is the hanging 9th place vote for CMU?  Even if we were in the North, I'm not sure we're THAT good, but I could see the confusion because we've played virtually all North teams this season.

All that stuff said, good stuff guys, thanks for providing discussion fodder!

[Mr. Ypsi]

My ballot for this week (I wouldn't do this if I were running the poll, but I seriously doubt I will contaminate anyone's ballot! ).

1. UMU (DUH!!)
2. NCC (to me, also duh!, but some disagree.  since the opening game hiccup, they have destroyed everyone, and, until proven otherwise, are still THE team in the CCIW)
3. IWU (since I bleed green, I have no issue with the voter who has them #2.   I would have an issue with anyone who votes them less than #3 or 4 this week!)
4. Heidi (a shutout of Ott clinches the spot)
5. Wabash (would they beat Heidi?  quite possibly, but Heidi is undefeated)
6. Witt (hard to separate them from Wabash)
7. Elmhurst (takes a big jump with defeat of Wheaton; ONLY loss is AT NCC)
8. Wheaton (my gut says they are top 5; the scoreboard says if they lose to IWU, they are history)
9. Franklin (lost the only two games that could have moved them way up)
10 OWU (STILL undefeated; STILL untested)

I REALLY wanted to include Adrian and CUC, but ran out of room.  And they (and Franklin) have nobody on their schedule to prove their worth, so only losses by others can move them up.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'll wait til the poll is posted, but I do believe he results from this weekend provide quite a bit of clarity.

How about Heidelberg? When I was playing, in the not-too-distant past, they didn't win a game for several seasons running. Now a top 25 team and (probably) the best OAC team whose name doesn't begin with Mount. Wow.

[NCF]

I'll wait til the poll is posted, but I do believe he results from this weekend provide quite a bit of clarity.

How about Heidelberg? When I was playing, in the not-too-distant past, they didn't win a game for several seasons running. Now a top 25 team and (probably) the best OAC team whose name doesn't begin with Mount. Wow.

Agree on some clarity, we'll see what happens with  a 2 loss Wheaton (I wouldn't have thought would happen before the played NC and IWU). Next week's game against IWU will be the one to watch.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I finally turned my ballot in. I always do my top 25 before the north and I was completely redoing my top 25. Only the top 4 north teams made my top 25.

Heidelberg is slowly creeping up... mostly because teams ahead keep losing. Until I see how they do their final 3 games I'm still a bit leery of jumping on the bandwagon. They have finally cracked my top 5 though.
I've finally slipped my Grizzlies back in at 10th but it was a mess trying to fill out the last 2 spots. Franklin, Ohio Wesleyan, Otterbein, and Wheaton were all in the discussion.

[NCF]

I finally turned my ballot in. I always do my top 25 before the north and I was completely redoing my top 25. Only the top 4 north teams made my top 25.

Heidelberg is slowly creeping up... mostly because teams ahead keep losing. Until I see how they do their final 3 games I'm still a bit leery of jumping on the bandwagon. They have finally cracked my top 5 though.
I've finally slipped my Grizzlies back in at 10th but it was a mess trying to fill out the last 2 spots. Franklin, Ohio Wesleyan, Otterbein, and Wheaton were all in the discussion.

The way this season is going, that could happen for a couple of weeks yet.