FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Pat Coleman]

Indeed, we are bound by the collective will of the Top 25 voters for the first 25 spots. Otherwise you would expect to see a ranking of Elmhurst more in line with their predicted finish.

[wally_wabash]

From there it's a big drop to the next North team (Adrian at #51, John Carroll at #53, Augustana at #55).  Ohio Wesleyan is ranked 70th, #14 among North teams, which might sound unduly low but I'm OK with it, that sounds about right until we see that OWU this year is just as good as OWU last year.

As we're alluding to in the Heidl conversation, I think recent history has to be considered in projections because there's relatively little information to go on, and OWU has only one good season to their credit.  Another 9-win season is certainly possible, but so is a bit of regression to the mean.  OWU finished 9-1, but they only beat three teams that finished the year with a winning record (and none of those - Case, CMU, Kenyon - is going to be confused with the '85 Bears).  OWU was 4-0 in one-score games last year and that some of those came against mediocre competition; they could be a very similar team this year and end up 6-4 or 7-3 (although I think they will be clearly favored against everyone but Wabash and Witt).  Winning 8 games seems likely; winning 9 will require a team not only "equal" to last year's team, but most likely, a BETTER team.

Oh, and anyone that hasn't bought Kickoff yet....GET IT.  It's a treasure trove of information about every team.

Some OWU reaction...

- There are not 69 teams better than Ohio Wesleyan.  I know things get really blurry and you're trying to numerically order a lot of sameness after the first 40 or so, but I really think OWU is good enough to win a playoff game should they qualify (which obviously requires beating Wabash or Witt or both...and assumes the requisite confidence boost that would come from said results). 

- OWU did play some lesser teams close early on last year, but I think we need to keep in mind where they were coming from...many years of really poor results.  Crawl, walk, then run as my man Clay Davis says.  Last year, especially early on, was about just learning how to close out games with a lead.  They did that.  Then they showed that they could get down, not panic, and come back and win if they needed to (CMU...that was an impressive 4th quarter there for a lot of reasons).  They managed to get to 9-1 all while still trying to figure it all out.  Pretty heady stuff. 

- It's probably time for a little season-after truth serum on their game against Wabash last year, which was the marquee game for them.  Yes, they got shut out.  They also moved the ball up and down the field pretty much at will.  They hadn't figured out the red zone yet and it bit them last year.  Three times into the red zone and they got nothing, including getting stuffed on 4th and G on the 1 on the opening drive of the game.  How different is that game if OWU marches down 80 yards like it was 7 on 7 and scores right off the bat?  Probably a lot.  Conversely, Wabash scored all 4 TDs from outside the red zone, three of those were 65+ yard plays.  So if there was ever a 28-0 result that maybe wasn't all that representative of how far apart two teams were, it was that one. 

- I think OWU is going to lose their games at Wabash and Witt, but they are going to be great games, especially that game against Witt (I don't think either defense is going to fare well that day).  I think they are going to hammer the rest of their schedule.  That offense is going to be a nightmare to handle for NCAC teams.

[Pat Coleman]

I guess we'll see -- those are the things we were looking at, which you describe. Close wins against not-impressive teams, did not play Wittenberg, shut out by Wabash. They were 9-1 because of their schedule and if they'd played Wittenberg instead of any of their non-conference games they'd have been 8-2. But I think we all know all of that.

[wally_wabash]

That was the biggest thing we missed out on last year in the unbalanced schedule was an OWU/Witt game.  I think you would have favored Witt there certainly, but I think the Bishops could have scored 3-4 TDs on Witt's defense.  OWU's defense was good last year...whether they could have won I think depends on if they had  gone up against first half Witt which had offense in fits and starts or second half Witt which really got into a groove on offense.  Would have been a fascinating game.  I think we'll get a lot of points out that game this year.  It's my second-most anticpiated NCAC game this year after Wabash/Witt. 

[Bishopleftiesdad]

From there it's a big drop to the next North team (Adrian at #51, John Carroll at #53, Augustana at #55).  Ohio Wesleyan is ranked 70th, #14 among North teams, which might sound unduly low but I'm OK with it, that sounds about right until we see that OWU this year is just as good as OWU last year.

As we're alluding to in the Heidl conversation, I think recent history has to be considered in projections because there's relatively little information to go on, and OWU has only one good season to their credit.  Another 9-win season is certainly possible, but so is a bit of regression to the mean.  OWU finished 9-1, but they only beat three teams that finished the year with a winning record (and none of those - Case, CMU, Kenyon - is going to be confused with the '85 Bears).  OWU was 4-0 in one-score games last year and that some of those came against mediocre competition; they could be a very similar team this year and end up 6-4 or 7-3 (although I think they will be clearly favored against everyone but Wabash and Witt).  Winning 8 games seems likely; winning 9 will require a team not only "equal" to last year's team, but most likely, a BETTER team.

Oh, and anyone that hasn't bought Kickoff yet....GET IT.  It's a treasure trove of information about every team.

Some OWU reaction...

- There are not 69 teams better than Ohio Wesleyan.  I know things get really blurry and you're trying to numerically order a lot of sameness after the first 40 or so, but I really think OWU is good enough to win a playoff game should they qualify (which obviously requires beating Wabash or Witt or both...and assumes the requisite confidence boost that would come from said results). 

- OWU did play some lesser teams close early on last year, but I think we need to keep in mind where they were coming from...many years of really poor results.  Crawl, walk, then run as my man Clay Davis says.  Last year, especially early on, was about just learning how to close out games with a lead.  They did that.  Then they showed that they could get down, not panic, and come back and win if they needed to (CMU...that was an impressive 4th quarter there for a lot of reasons).  They managed to get to 9-1 all while still trying to figure it all out.  Pretty heady stuff. 

- It's probably time for a little season-after truth serum on their game against Wabash last year, which was the marquee game for them.  Yes, they got shut out.  They also moved the ball up and down the field pretty much at will.  They hadn't figured out the red zone yet and it bit them last year.  Three times into the red zone and they got nothing, including getting stuffed on 4th and G on the 1 on the opening drive of the game.  How different is that game if OWU marches down 80 yards like it was 7 on 7 and scores right off the bat?  Probably a lot.  Conversely, Wabash scored all 4 TDs from outside the red zone, three of those were 65+ yard plays.  So if there was ever a 28-0 result that maybe wasn't all that representative of how far apart two teams were, it was that one. 

- I think OWU is going to lose their games at Wabash and Witt, but they are going to be great games, especially that game against Witt (I don't think either defense is going to fare well that day).  I think they are going to hammer the rest of their schedule.  That offense is going to be a nightmare to handle for NCAC teams.

Great and well thought out post Wally +1. I appreciate the props to OWU. As much as I would have liked them ranked higher than 70 I do not have a problem with it especially for Pre-Season. OWU has a large class this year, and hopefully will progress. Do I think they will beat Wabash or Witt? No. Do I think they can beat Wabash and Witt? Yes. Theseason will play out and we will see. They may be a better team this year but it may not show up in the record.

[ExTartanPlayer]

wally,

I do think it's possible OWU is better than the 70th-best team in Division III, but I'm okay with ranking them at #70 in Kickoff.  It's fair to make the counterargument that they were learning to win early last season and arguably played their best ball down the stretch...but I still think ranking them in the top 50 to start the season just feels like it'd be a big overreaction to one good season.

To be honest, I'm even more miffed by CMU's #132 preseason ranking.  I concede that the UAA was fairly middling last season and that we faded a bit, but that still seems low for a quality team returning an excellent fourth-year starter at QB, two good deep threats at WR, and an experienced offensive line.

With all of that said...a broad point is our general tendency to overrate teams that we're familiar with or use a few results from a narrow perspective (for example, the case that OWU might be a legitimate threat to Wittenberg/Wabash, so they should be ranked closer to Wittenberg/Wabash than they are), forgetting that there are similar teams from other regions that we just don't know as much about.

For another good example, look no further than #71 Waynesburg, who also went 9-1 last year but lost to a slightly bigger fish from their conference.  The PAC is a similarly middling conference to the NCAC. 

I think OWU is better than Waynesburg, yes.  But my point is that it's easy to think OWU should be ranked right behind Wabash and Witt, but the gap in between is filled with a bunch of similarly promising teams, some of whom were better than OWU in recent history and might be primed for a rebound, others of which are "on the rise" - who knows.

[wally_wabash]

I think OWU's position in the ORV category in the preseason top 25 is probably a more fair assessment of where they fit in the big picture.  Ultimately, we won't know unless OWU wins the league and sets off into the tests of the playoffs.  Certainly, you don't get to have just one good year and have everybody leap onto the bandwagon with both feet.  In the polling and ranking business, you earn your spot with year-over-year consistency. 

More OWU talk because I can't get enough...I'm pretty sure 2013's Wabash and Wittenberg are better than their 2012 teams.  I'm not sure I know the same thing about OWU.  I think OWU's offense will be better...well, mostly just the same but probably a little faster.  They're going to club most teams on their schedule with tempo.  Where I don't think OWU is as good or better is on defense.  They really, really got after the passer last year and they did it because Huddleston was a man mover on that line.  I don't know if they have a replacement...and as we know, if you can harass QBs by DL rush alone, your defense gets really really good.  There is a Mount Union transfer there now on that DL, but we'll have to see how that goes.  For every Tony Sutton/Brett Elliott type of transfer from higher divisions (or in this case the uppermost crust of D3), there are dozens and dozens and dozens that get your interest on the preseason roster and wind up being just another guy or you never hear their name again after the chatter about where this new guy came from.  So we'll see. 

[Bishopleftiesdad]

I am not going to worry about where OWU is ranked pre season Nationally. There first step is to play up to Witt and Wabash. When they start taking back the "ye old Skull" and beating Wabash, National rank means little in the pre-season, except for us to have something to talk about. That is what I want to see first. If they can start beating those teams, the National picture will take care of itself.

[sigma one]

I think the OWU defense might be better than has been speculated here.  It's true that they graduated an all-conference defensive end.  It's also true that Valentine, the other end, actually (barely) led the team in sacks.  That can happen when the focus is elsewhere, but he is still an all-conference possibility at d-end.  The OWU linebackers will will be strong, and three defensive backs return.
     Whether this all means anything v. Wabash and Witt, of course, we will have to see.  Still, I believe their defense will be a force all year. 
     The point about how Wabash scored at OWU last year has been made, as has the point about how OWU fizzzled in the red zone in that game.  I really thought the teams were closer to equal than the score indicated--but, hey, TDs are TDs and being shut out is being shut out.  In the end, Wabash beat them on their Homecoming, and it wasn't close on the scoreboard.
      I'm really interested in how the league, particularly some of the better teams, play OWU this year now that they have seen the offense. (I know you can argue the other side:  OWU has been in the offense for a year, so they should run it even better.)   Of course, with many teams it won't matter, but with Wabash, Witt, and maybe one or two more it might.  I believe that to win at Wabash and at Witt they need a more balanced approach. 
     Do any of us think, though, that they will not be better in the red zone this year, assuming they continue to get as many opportunities?  Having the top FG kicker in the NCAA is both a blessing and a curse. 
     

[wally_wabash]

Got my ballot in this week.  Really interested to see what the group does with the week 1 results.  Lot of different ways to interpret what went down on Saturday. 

[smedindy]

There was movement, and I had to boot Otterbein out. I ALMOST threw in Kenyon...

[Bishopleftiesdad]

I think the OWU defense might be better than has been speculated here.  It's true that they graduated an all-conference defensive end.  It's also true that Valentine, the other end, actually (barely) led the team in sacks.  That can happen when the focus is elsewhere, but he is still an all-conference possibility at d-end.  The OWU linebackers will will be strong, and three defensive backs return.
     Whether this all means anything v. Wabash and Witt, of course, we will have to see.  Still, I believe their defense will be a force all year. 
     The point about how Wabash scored at OWU last year has been made, as has the point about how OWU fizzzled in the red zone in that game.  I really thought the teams were closer to equal than the score indicated--but, hey, TDs are TDs and being shut out is being shut out.  In the end, Wabash beat them on their Homecoming, and it wasn't close on the scoreboard.
      I'm really interested in how the league, particularly some of the better teams, play OWU this year now that they have seen the offense. (I know you can argue the other side:  OWU has been in the offense for a year, so they should run it even better.)   Of course, with many teams it won't matter, but with Wabash, Witt, and maybe one or two more it might.  I believe that to win at Wabash and at Witt they need a more balanced approach. 
     Do any of us think, though, that they will not be better in the red zone this year, assuming they continue to get as many opportunities?  Having the top FG kicker in the NCAA is both a blessing and a curse. 
   

Valentine stats from Saturday.
5 Solo takles, 1 Asst, 3.5 tackles for a loss of 23 yards, 3 sacks for 21 yards.

[Li'l Giant]

There was movement, and I had to boot Otterbein out.

I did the same. But they were the only team that fell out of my ballot completely. The rest was just rearranging slots.

[wally_wabash]

Ott was outside of my 10 but on my watch list last week...obviously they didn't make my 10 this week.  Adrian was also on my watch list and it is hard to see a circumstance where they get back there.  You can't get rolled up at home by Pacific.  Pacific that traveled 2500 miles to get there.  I don't think there's anything left on their schedule that could get them back into top 10 consideration for me. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

No poll this week??

I got my ballot in.  (Pretty easy, since I also voted in the national poll, and had 9 North teams in my 25; just had to choose a 10th. )