FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

fair enough, I agree those teams are all pretty close. I am not so sure BW and IWU aren't in the same boat with those teams. I would also say I think most of those teams would have shut out Hanover and Albion and a middle road WIAC team was likely the best opponent of the group. More data will certainly help. thanks again.

One thing that I think plays into the way I rank teams that maybe doesn't happen so much with other voters is that I care not one whit what league some team comes from.  You don't get juice in my poll by beating a WIAC team.  You do get juice by beating a good team that happens to play in the WIAC.  Same goes for the OAC or the CCIW or the MIAC or the NWC.  Teams aren't good simply because they've got membership in one conference or another.  Franklin's league stinks like a foot.  Franklin is really, really good.  They'd be really good in whatever league they might play in.  The CCIW is really good...but Millikin is still a bad team.  They'd be bad in any league they might play in.  More to the immediate point is that I don't think LaCrosse is very good.  I know they beat NCC last year but that was more weird than it was anything else. 

And I do agree that every team on this top 10 would handle Hanover.  Not all of them would limit Hanover to 45 yards of offense and turn them over 8 times.  2.5 efficiency rating.  1-12 on 3rd down.  5 total first downs.  The sort of video game defensive stats that just don't happen too often outside of Alliance.

I hear you but you can't honestly think LAX and Hanover are the same type of win? They are not. Benedictine, Hanover, Albion and Alma may all be miserable teams but Lacrosse would beat hem all by multiple TDs don't you think? And I think the IWU and Wheaton defenses were pretty dominant in their games.  Did you look at those stats?

No, they are not.  And if NCC beat UW-LaCrosse 69-0 your point would stand.

But Wabash beat Hanover 69-0 and NCC beat UW-LaCrosse 41-24. 

This isn't to say Wabash is better than NCC just because they won 69-0, but we're dealing with imperfect data here.  Ultimately you have to make a call.  The teams played opponents of a different caliber.  One team absolutely whacked a pretty bad opponent, the other posted a solid victory over a middle-of-the-road opponent.

I think that's probably right. Just so we all admit we are slight homers for our own teams/conferences...that's a natural bias and understood. for example I am pretty good at justifying how Wheaton is better than NCC on the CCIW board and Wally says 6 teams are all interchangeable but he puts his team first among the 6. 

[smedindy]

I didn't change a thing.

[wally_wabash]

I think that's probably right. Just so we all admit we are slight homers for our own teams/conferences...that's a natural bias and understood. for example I am pretty good at justifying how Wheaton is better than NCC on the CCIW board and Wally says 6 teams are all interchangeable but he puts his team first among the 6. 

To be fair, I didn't start with Wabash in front of the rest of that pack.  I was persuaded to rethink those positions after seeing how good Wabash's defense played.  It was some next level stuff there. 

Do I think LaCrosse is better than Hanover?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hang 69 on Hanover if they really wanted to?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hold Hanover to 45 yards, one snap beyond the 50 yard line, and turn them over 8 times?  I do not.  And that's the difference this week.  It may change next week. 

[USee]

I think that's probably right. Just so we all admit we are slight homers for our own teams/conferences...that's a natural bias and understood. for example I am pretty good at justifying how Wheaton is better than NCC on the CCIW board and Wally says 6 teams are all interchangeable but he puts his team first among the 6. 

To be fair, I didn't start with Wabash in front of the rest of that pack.  I was persuaded to rethink those positions after seeing how good Wabash's defense played.  It was some next level stuff there. 

Do I think LaCrosse is better than Hanover?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hang 69 on Hanover if they really wanted to?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hold Hanover to 45 yards, one snap beyond the 50 yard line, and turn them over 8 times?  I do not.  And that's the difference this week.  It may change next week.

Did you watch any of those teams the way you watched your own? You did not.  The question I have about Wabash is the offense.  They could not score against Wheaton with great field position.  I don't think they would put 42 on lacrosse.

[wally_wabash]

I think that's probably right. Just so we all admit we are slight homers for our own teams/conferences...that's a natural bias and understood. for example I am pretty good at justifying how Wheaton is better than NCC on the CCIW board and Wally says 6 teams are all interchangeable but he puts his team first among the 6. 

To be fair, I didn't start with Wabash in front of the rest of that pack.  I was persuaded to rethink those positions after seeing how good Wabash's defense played.  It was some next level stuff there. 

Do I think LaCrosse is better than Hanover?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hang 69 on Hanover if they really wanted to?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hold Hanover to 45 yards, one snap beyond the 50 yard line, and turn them over 8 times?  I do not.  And that's the difference this week.  It may change next week.

Did you watch any of those teams the way you watched your own? You did not.  The question I have about Wabash is the offense.  They could not score against Wheaton with great field position.  I don't think they would put 42 on lacrosse.

I would have questions about how relevant a team's performance in a scrimmage after one week of camp is, but we've all got to use our data in our own way. 

And you don't need to score 42 when your defense gives up zero.   

[DPU3619]

The points are all correct.  I'm not too sure what I've done with the listing of the votes.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The points are all correct.  I'm not too sure what I've done with the listing of the votes.

You have 8 8th place votes and only 6 9th place votes.  I have, obviously, no clue which one is wrong.

[USee]

I think that's probably right. Just so we all admit we are slight homers for our own teams/conferences...that's a natural bias and understood. for example I am pretty good at justifying how Wheaton is better than NCC on the CCIW board and Wally says 6 teams are all interchangeable but he puts his team first among the 6. 

To be fair, I didn't start with Wabash in front of the rest of that pack.  I was persuaded to rethink those positions after seeing how good Wabash's defense played.  It was some next level stuff there. 

Do I think LaCrosse is better than Hanover?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hang 69 on Hanover if they really wanted to?  I do.  Do I think North Central could hold Hanover to 45 yards, one snap beyond the 50 yard line, and turn them over 8 times?  I do not.  And that's the difference this week.  It may change next week.

Did you watch any of those teams the way you watched your own? You did not.  The question I have about Wabash is the offense.  They could not score against Wheaton with great field position.  I don't think they would put 42 on lacrosse.

I would have questions about how relevant a team's performance in a scrimmage after one week of camp is, but we've all got to use our data in our own way. 

And you don't need to score 42 when your defense gives up zero.   

Of course.  Congratulations for shutting down Hanover.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wally, IWU also yielded only 5 first downs (ZERO in the second half), though the defense did give up 100 yards and 3 points (occurring when the offense gave up a turnover already in FG range).   We'll need to arrange a Wabash/IWU game to settle this (or at least a Hanover/Alma game).   (Actually, I did have Wabash 4 slots ahead of IWU, despite my green blood. )

Saturday's game was bizarre: anyone watching only the first half would not have IWU in the top 30 of the region; anyone watching only the second half would have them in the top 4!   (I had them 8th, which was down a slot from last week.)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The points are all correct.  I'm not too sure what I've done with the listing of the votes.

You have 8 8th place votes and only 6 9th place votes.  I have, obviously, no clue which one is wrong.

I count 7 9th place votes. I think there was simply an extra 8th listed for OWU that should have been a blank. John Carroll received votes from 3 people so there should be 3 blanks in the top 10 and there are just two.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Wally, IWU also yielded only 5 first downs (ZERO in the second half), though the defense did give up 100 yards and 3 points...

OK.  Then refer to the part where IWU had a donut on the scoreboard at halftime while Wabash had 38.

Look, guys, we're working with imperfect data.  Trying to make sense of "which team's blowout of a lesser opponent in their only game" merits the highest ranking is tough; you're going to have to make some judgement calls.  I'm fine with someone putting Wabash or Wheaton on top of this heap because they absolutely bushwhacked their lesser opponents; I'm also fine with taking NC under the "they beat a half-respectable opponent" clause.  That's fine.  But you have to take into account ALL the factors; not solely MOV or quality of opponent.  Referring to my earlier point, if one of these factors were equal while the other was clearly favoring one team, then you have a sturdier case.  But there's no way to know right now whether a 69-0 win over Hanover is more impressive than a 41-24 win over UW-LaCrosse.

Is LaCrosse the best opponent any of the teams in this discussion played?  Certainly.  But they also lost 35-24 to Dubuque in Week 1 (and scored a TD with 14 seconds left to close that final margin; it was 21-3 Dubuque at halftime and 35-17 with two minutes to go).  Dubuque was a middle of the pack IIAC team last year.  So UW-L is probably better than Hanover and Benedictine, but let's not give that too much weight.

[USee]

Wally, IWU also yielded only 5 first downs (ZERO in the second half), though the defense did give up 100 yards and 3 points...

OK.  Then refer to the part where IWU had a donut on the scoreboard at halftime while Wabash had 38.

Look, guys, we're working with imperfect data.  Trying to make sense of "which team's blowout of a lesser opponent in their only game" merits the highest ranking is tough; you're going to have to make some judgement calls.  I'm fine with someone putting Wabash or Wheaton on top of this heap because they absolutely bushwhacked their lesser opponents; I'm also fine with taking NC under the "they beat a half-respectable opponent" clause.  That's fine.  But you have to take into account ALL the factors; not solely MOV or quality of opponent.  Referring to my earlier point, if one of these factors were equal while the other was clearly favoring one team, then you have a sturdier case.  But there's no way to know right now whether a 69-0 win over Hanover is more impressive than a 41-24 win over UW-LaCrosse.

Is LaCrosse the best opponent any of the teams in this discussion played?  Certainly.  But they also lost 35-24 to Dubuque in Week 1 (and scored a TD with 14 seconds left to close that final margin; it was 21-3 Dubuque at halftime and 35-17 with two minutes to go).  Dubuque was a middle of the pack IIAC team last year.  So UW-L is probably better than Hanover and Benedictine, but let's not give that too much weight.

I agree completely. Imperfect data, low number of data points. My main point was that we at least intellectually admit we are all a little bit homers. Wally says #3-8 are interchangeable and then rationalizes why his team is the top of that heap because their defense dominated a horrific Hanover team. Subsequently dismissing any other data as "just one week of practice". That's inconsistent.

[wally_wabash]

[smedindy]

This will all sort itself out soon enough...

[Li'l Giant]

I would have joined this conversation sooner but I had an 18 hour, 750 mile day yesterday, followed by a 12 hour deadline day today. Finally able to crack open a cold one and catch up.

Anyway, I felt no compelling reason to change anything on my ballot for this week. Thus, I'm higher on Franklin (my #2), Heidelberg (my #4) and Witt (my #5) than the overall poll and lower on Wabash (my #6) and Wheaton (my #7). I had IWU at #10 last week and this.

I was certainly impressed at the Wabash shellacking of Hanover but still not compelled to rearrange the deck chairs just yet.

Like Smed says, it will sort out. I think having Mount #1, then NCC/Franklin 2-3 and then the current 3-10 in any order is defensible at this point.

EDIT:

I just noticed the +/- karma rankings. Kind of interesting. I guess if I have a better +/- than Manu Ginobili in the Finals I'm doing okay.