FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

49 points per game (5th nationally) isn't enough?  Tough room...

You are seriously going to argue that because Wabash beat Allegheny and Hanover by 60+ their offense can beat good teams? It may be true but having just witnessed a team that lead their league in offense on the back of 60 pt wins to horrific teams, only to struggle to score against a top 20 defense I am pretty comfortable in my assessment. I also have the benefit of having seen Wabash live and in person. You will argue its at a scrimmage, but my observations from that day have been largely true for both of the teams that day, and that is also what informs my viewpoint. I have seen every team on this list at least 2x this year (live and online).

If Wabash puts 45+ pts on Witt while holding them to less than 2 scores, I will get on the BashWagon. Until then, call me optimisticly pessimistic.

[ADL70]

49 points per game (5th nationally) isn't enough?  Tough room...

"good teams"?  But they can only play the teams on their schedule.

Here are the best five results in the region through EIGHT weeks of the season:
Mount Union defeats Franklin 30-27
Franklin loses to Mount Union 27-30
Franklin loses to Butler 28-31
IWU defeats Wheaton 30-19
Olivet defeats Adrian 21-17

80 percent of the season is over and three of the best five results in the region involve one team, two of them are losses that are more impressive than anything anybody else has done in victory, and another result involves teams that aren't even ranked in the NRFP. 

So no, Wabash hasn't played or beaten teams that are particularly good.  Neither has anybody else.

But Usee's post was he was concerned if Wabash's O could beat good team's with their O.  Three of the team's he ranks above Wabash are in your list of teams that have played a good opponent, and JCU, NCC, and Heidi all have higher total offense than Wabash (although JCU is a virtual tie), JCU and NCC trail in ppg, but I will acknowledge it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.  And he adds that 5-8 are interchangeable.  So it's his ranking of NCC above 5-8 that you would seem to have issue with and though not "in region" he makes a good point of the quality of the win over UWSP.

Part of this written before USee's latest posts.

But I repeat it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.

And there's been posts from Wabash faithful questioning QB play, if I'm not mistaken.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

49 points per game (5th nationally) isn't enough?  Tough room...

"good teams"?  But they can only play the teams on their schedule.

Here are the best five results in the region through EIGHT weeks of the season:
Mount Union defeats Franklin 30-27
Franklin loses to Mount Union 27-30
Franklin loses to Butler 28-31
IWU defeats Wheaton 30-19
Olivet defeats Adrian 21-17

80 percent of the season is over and three of the best five results in the region involve one team, two of them are losses that are more impressive than anything anybody else has done in victory, and another result involves teams that aren't even ranked in the NRFP. 

So no, Wabash hasn't played or beaten teams that are particularly good.  Neither has anybody else.

But Usee's post was he was concerned if Wabash's O could beat good team's with their O.  Three of the team's he ranks above Wabash are in your list of teams that have played a good opponent, and JCU, NCC, and Heidi all have higher total offense than Wabash (although JCU is a virtual tie), JCU and NCC trail in ppg, but I will acknowledge it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.  And he adds that 5-8 are interchangeable.  So it's his ranking of NCC above 5-8 that you would seem to have issue with and though not "in region" he makes a good point of the quality of the win over UWSP.

Part of this written before USee's latest posts.

But I repeat it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs

also hard to compare when there are teams in the North Region scoring a lot of points and the third/fourth string plays the entire fourth quarter and the starters arent even in the second half. 

[wally_wabash]

Crap.  I keep forgetting about that practice in August after about a week and a half of camp.  Relevant. 

49 points per game (5th nationally) isn't enough?  Tough room...

"good teams"?  But they can only play the teams on their schedule.

Here are the best five results in the region through EIGHT weeks of the season:
Mount Union defeats Franklin 30-27
Franklin loses to Mount Union 27-30
Franklin loses to Butler 28-31
IWU defeats Wheaton 30-19
Olivet defeats Adrian 21-17

80 percent of the season is over and three of the best five results in the region involve one team, two of them are losses that are more impressive than anything anybody else has done in victory, and another result involves teams that aren't even ranked in the NRFP. 

So no, Wabash hasn't played or beaten teams that are particularly good.  Neither has anybody else.

But Usee's post was he was concerned if Wabash's O could beat good team's with their O.  Three of the team's he ranks above Wabash are in your list of teams that have played a good opponent, and JCU, NCC, and Heidi all have higher total offense than Wabash (although JCU is a virtual tie), JCU and NCC trail in ppg, but I will acknowledge it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.  And he adds that 5-8 are interchangeable.  So it's his ranking of NCC above 5-8 that you would seem to have issue with and though not "in region" he makes a good point of the quality of the win over UWSP.

Part of this written before USee's latest posts.

But I repeat it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.

And there's been posts from Wabash faithful questioning QB play, if I'm not mistaken.

Wabash's QB play is good, not great.  It's fine.  Some Wabash faithful are overly picky about that sort of thing and don't seem to be fully on board with what this offense does and asks of its QB.  Is Wabash going to ride the right arm of their quarterback to a win anytime soon?  Nope.  Is that strategy going to be in any game plan?  Nope.  In short...totally overblown.

It's dirty little secret time...North Central has played one of the weakest schedules in the country through 8 weeks.  It's true.  Hold your nose and look it up.  With nothing but WIAC and CCIW teams on the schedule, North Central has managed to play seven games and not play one good team.  Not one.  Here again we're getting too wrapped up in all of the conference rep BS.  Just because you slap a "UW" in front of a school's name doesn't make them good at football.  LaCrosse, Stout?  These are not good teams.  Not at all.  Stevens Point is ok, but they lost to LaCrosse who I just told you isn't very good.  They did play Platteville close, but look at Platteville's scores (against a worse schedule than North Central even)...I'm pretty sure that the Pioneers are about to get smacked around pretty hard down the stretch here.  But even then, you're playing the "they beat somebody who gave somebody else a decent game" card which is really starting to reach. 

And we can pick apart Heidelberg's schedule the same way.  And Wittenberg (but, Butler...I know...how did that go again?).  And John Carroll (unless all of a sudden we are going to respect the MWC...didn't think so).  Mount Union hasn't played anybody except for Franklin and vice versa. 

If we want to discount Wabash's offense and their ppg and whatever else because you don't like their opponents, that's fine.  I just want to raise awareness that nobody else in the region has exactly been crushing it against any kind of murderer's row either.  In fact, amongst the teams listed in the NRFP, Wabash's schedule hasn't been all that bad.  Bad?  Yes.  But better than most of the teams on this list. 

[NCF]

Crap.  I keep forgetting about that practice in August after about a week and a half of camp.  Relevant. 

49 points per game (5th nationally) isn't enough?  Tough room...

"good teams"?  But they can only play the teams on their schedule.

Here are the best five results in the region through EIGHT weeks of the season:
Mount Union defeats Franklin 30-27
Franklin loses to Mount Union 27-30
Franklin loses to Butler 28-31
IWU defeats Wheaton 30-19
Olivet defeats Adrian 21-17

80 percent of the season is over and three of the best five results in the region involve one team, two of them are losses that are more impressive than anything anybody else has done in victory, and another result involves teams that aren't even ranked in the NRFP. 

So no, Wabash hasn't played or beaten teams that are particularly good.  Neither has anybody else.

But Usee's post was he was concerned if Wabash's O could beat good team's with their O.  Three of the team's he ranks above Wabash are in your list of teams that have played a good opponent, and JCU, NCC, and Heidi all have higher total offense than Wabash (although JCU is a virtual tie), JCU and NCC trail in ppg, but I will acknowledge it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.  And he adds that 5-8 are interchangeable.  So it's his ranking of NCC above 5-8 that you would seem to have issue with and though not "in region" he makes a good point of the quality of the win over UWSP.

Part of this written before USee's latest posts.

But I repeat it's difficult to compare blow-outs to blow-outs.

And there's been posts from Wabash faithful questioning QB play, if I'm not mistaken.

Wabash's QB play is good, not great.  It's fine.  Some Wabash faithful are overly picky about that sort of thing and don't seem to be fully on board with what this offense does and asks of its QB.  Is Wabash going to ride the right arm of their quarterback to a win anytime soon?  Nope.  Is that strategy going to be in any game plan?  Nope.  In short...totally overblown.

It's dirty little secret time...North Central has played one of the weakest schedules in the country through 8 weeks.  It's true.  Hold your nose and look it up.  With nothing but WIAC and CCIW teams on the schedule, North Central has managed to play seven games and not play one good team.  Not one.  Here again we're getting too wrapped up in all of the conference rep BS.  Just because you slap a "UW" in front of a school's name doesn't make them good at football.  LaCrosse, Stout?  These are not good teams.  Not at all.  Stevens Point is ok, but they lost to LaCrosse who I just told you isn't very good.  They did play Platteville close, but look at Platteville's scores (against a worse schedule than North Central even)...I'm pretty sure that the Pioneers are about to get smacked around pretty hard down the stretch here.  But even then, you're playing the "they beat somebody who gave somebody else a decent game" card which is really starting to reach. 

And we can pick apart Heidelberg's schedule the same way.  And Wittenberg (but, Butler...I know...how did that go again?).  And John Carroll (unless all of a sudden we are going to respect the MWC...didn't think so).  Mount Union hasn't played anybody except for Franklin and vice versa. 

If we want to discount Wabash's offense and their ppg and whatever else because you don't like their opponents, that's fine.  I just want to raise awareness that nobody else in the region has exactly been crushing it against any kind of murderer's row either.  In fact, amongst the teams listed in the NRFP, Wabash's schedule hasn't been all that bad.  Bad?  Yes.  But better than most of the teams on this list.

Unfortunately, I would have to agree with you on this.

[USee]

Wally,

You highlight all the hard parts about ranking teams and I agree. You are going to champion your team and I get it. You minimize my view point in the process and argue your team is better. I say there is ZERO evidence 5-8 are better than each other, so swap em around if you want. the good news is your "next level" defense and 60+ point vs Hanover offense will have their day in court. If you want to crown them now, go for it. Based on what I have seen so far, Wabash isn't better than the teams I have ranked ahead of them. Sorry if that hurts your feelings. I will be the first one here to say I am wrong when the data shows it. You aren't changing my opinion because "..you just told me".

And some of those teams above you are going to be playing some tougher games than Wabash will before the playoffs start. That's because they play in conferences with tougher opponents. You don't like that either. Sorry. It's a fact. Doesn't mean Wabash won't kick their proverbial tail when they get there chance in November, but it's part of how we rank em today.

And yes, your offfense failed to score a single point against Wheaton in a scrimmage in August despite getting the ball 6x inside the Wheaton 50. Wheaton scored 3pts against your defense during that same stretch. What I saw that day, I have seen pretty consitently 2 months later from both teams. Call it irrelevant if you want, I call it data.

Wabash is 5th in the country in offense? Are you kidding me? I must have it all wrong!

[smedindy]

Massey SOS Ratings:

North Central - 42 (A lot revolves around the heavy WIAC schedule and the teams that played Dubuque that beat Coe...interconnectivity)
Wheaton - 65 (Helped by IWU)
Franklin - 74 (Thanks to Mt. Union & Butler)
Illinois Wesleyan - 87 (Helped by Wheaton)
Mt. Union - 110 (thanks to Franklin)
John Carroll - 127 (St. Norbert)
Wittenberg - 135 (Butler is the only reason this is up there)
Heidelberg - 181
Wabash - 207

In this context - the 'bad' teams some teams have played are a lot better than the 'bad' teams the NCAC and OAC palled around with. Allegheny's only ranked ahead of MacMurray and Maranatha Baptist, fer cry-ay-ay. The third ranked team in the NCAC is Wooster at 144. Hanover's at 162 so they didn't help Wabash at. all. in the SOS game. I thought it would be Denison, but losing to a team that got blitzed by Manchester and then only beat Anderson by one will get you seriously downgraded.

This is such an odd duck year with back loaded schedules and teams cratering left and right. I think most all of the "bad" WIAC teams could stomp Hanover.

[USee]

I would have ranked NCC in the 5-8 bucket but in my opinion, having seen them play and knowing their personel, combined with a decent win against UWSP, I see separation.

I would absolutely love to rank NCC 10th or worse, believe me, but I just don't think that's appropriate from my view.

[USee]

Massey SOS Ratings:

North Central - 42 (A lot revolves around the heavy WIAC schedule and the teams that played Dubuque that beat Coe...interconnectivity)
Wheaton - 65 (Helped by IWU)
Franklin - 74 (Thanks to Mt. Union & Butler)
Illinois Wesleyan - 87 (Helped by Wheaton)
Mt. Union - 110 (thanks to Franklin)
John Carroll - 127 (St. Norbert)
Wittenberg - 135 (Butler is the only reason this is up there)
Heidelberg - 181
Wabash - 207

In this context - the 'bad' teams some teams have played are a lot better than the 'bad' teams the NCAC and OAC palled around with. Allegheny's only ranked ahead of MacMurray and Maranatha Baptist, fer cry-ay-ay. The third ranked team in the NCAC is Wooster at 144. Hanover's at 162 so they didn't help Wabash at. all. in the SOS game.

This is such an odd duck year with back loaded schedules and teams cratering left and right. I think most all of the "bad" WIAC teams could stomp Hanover.

more data to consider. As a side note Massey had Wheaton beating IWU 28-21.

[smedindy]

Massey SOS Ratings:

North Central - 42 (A lot revolves around the heavy WIAC schedule and the teams that played Dubuque that beat Coe...interconnectivity)
Wheaton - 65 (Helped by IWU)
Franklin - 74 (Thanks to Mt. Union & Butler)
Illinois Wesleyan - 87 (Helped by Wheaton)
Mt. Union - 110 (thanks to Franklin)
John Carroll - 127 (St. Norbert)
Wittenberg - 135 (Butler is the only reason this is up there)
Heidelberg - 181
Wabash - 207

In this context - the 'bad' teams some teams have played are a lot better than the 'bad' teams the NCAC and OAC palled around with. Allegheny's only ranked ahead of MacMurray and Maranatha Baptist, fer cry-ay-ay. The third ranked team in the NCAC is Wooster at 144. Hanover's at 162 so they didn't help Wabash at. all. in the SOS game.

This is such an odd duck year with back loaded schedules and teams cratering left and right. I think most all of the "bad" WIAC teams could stomp Hanover.

more data to consider. As a side note Massey had Wheaton beating IWU 28-21.

In their prediction?  Massey now sees IWU losing to North Central 31-24.

For you playing the futures game, it pegs the score at Wabash 35, Witt 30.

[USee]

Yes, last week prior to the game.

Bash has Witt in C'ville this year? I would like to see the offense that could score 30 on the L'Giants at home. That doesn't pass my sniff test, but then again, that was August after a week of practice so probably irrelevant.

[wabndy]

I'm interested to see how the first regional ranking break out.  Here is (most of) the relevant data for the North region (d3fb.com lists the UMAC in the north region - but i see in past years st. scholastica was seeded in the west regional rankings - what gives? - i've added them here below).  Here are the signifigant two loss or better teams in the region.  I've only listed signifigant wins (mostly wins against someone else on the list).

Team, overall record, in-region record, losses, signifigant wins, SOS ranking, OWP (OWP rank, OOWP, NCAA aggregate). 

Albion  5-2  5-2  Losses to (Wheaton, Central), 132 .4419 (159) .5667 0.484 
Adrian 6-2  6-2  Losses to (Pacific, Olivet), Wins (Hope) 115  .4694 (131) .5593 0.499
Hope 6-2  6-2  Losses to (IWU, Adrian), Wins (Olivet)  80 .5000 (103) .5710 0.524 
Olivet 6-1  6-1 Loss to (Hope), Wins (Adiran)  197 .3556 (209) .5678 0.426 
Wabash 7-0 7-0  129 .4773 (126) .5032 0.486 
Wittenberg  6-1  6-0 (Loss to Butler*)  96  .5135 (94) .5019 0.510 
Franklin 5-2 5-1  (Losses to Butler*, Mount Union), win (MSJ)  141   .5278 (81) .3865 0.481 
MSJ 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Augustana, Franklin),  210  .3810 (203) .4610 0.408 
IWU  7-0 7-0 Wins (Wheaton, Hope)  131  .4091 (183) .6355 0.485 
North Central 7-0 7-0 Wins (UW-Stevens Point)  201 .3077 (226) .6556 0.424 
Wheaton  6-1 6-1 Loss to (IWU), Wins (Albion)  39    .6098 (38) .5000 0.573 
Concordia 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Augsburg, Trine), Wins (Benedictine)  161  .4615 (142) .4585 0.460 
Benedictine 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Wheaton, Concordia), 138  .4524 (151) .5395 0.481 
Heidelberg 7-0 7-0   230  .1905 (231) .6553 0.345 
John Carroll 7-0 7-0 Wins (St. Norbert)  106  .4634 (135) .5839 0.504 
Mount Union  7-0 7-0 Wins (Franklin)  202 .3250 (221) .6179 0.423 
Chicago 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Rhodes, Pacific)   152  .4390 (169) .5190 0.466 
Greenville 8-0 8-0   213  .3636 (207) .4857 0.404 
St. Scholastica 7-1 7-1 (loss to Whitworth)  200 .4000 (192) .4744 0.425 

Here is my guesstimate at the North Region 10

1. Mount Union (objective criteria be darned - I credit the committee for traditionally calling a spade a spade)
2. John Carroll (better SOS than WAB, IWU, H'burg ,win agains presumptive RRO St. Norbert)
3. Illinois Wesleyan (SOS a toss-up with WAB, win against presumptive RRO Wheaton)
4.  Wabash (better SOS than NC, have to believe that the committee won't completely ignore Witt's D1 loss)
5.  North Central (would have been helped if WW-SP lost fewer games and ended up in west region rankings, ditto on Witt's loss)
6.  Wittenberg  (to be honest, I think 4-7 is a crap shoot, could be in any order, Witt can't slide that far)
7.  Heidelberg  (this low solely based on atrocius (thus far) SOS, which will improve, if they can slay some dragons)
8.  Franklin (gets on the board.  Don't think they can be ranked higher with 2 losses plus 1 in region loss - even against UMU - against so many unbeaten teams.  They will move up once the three week bloodbath commences).
9. Wheaton (toss up with Franklin on final ranking, killer SOS keeps them on the board)
10.  Greenville  (poor SOS - might get thrown a bone and ranked due to clean sheet thus far, if they actually are in region)
---
There's my $0.02,  Wally - you do a better job of this than anybody - what have i missed?

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

You highlight all the hard parts about ranking teams and I agree. You are going to champion your team and I get it. You minimize my view point in the process and argue your team is better. I say there is ZERO evidence 5-8 are better than each other, so swap em around if you want. the good news is your "next level" defense and 60+ point vs Hanover offense will have their day in court. If you want to crown them now, go for it. Based on what I have seen so far, Wabash isn't better than the teams I have ranked ahead of them. Sorry if that hurts your feelings. I will be the first one here to say I am wrong when the data shows it. You aren't changing my opinion because "..you just told me".

And some of those teams above you are going to be playing some tougher games than Wabash will before the playoffs start. That's because they play in conferences with tougher opponents. You don't like that either. Sorry. It's a fact. Doesn't mean Wabash won't kick their proverbial tail when they get there chance in November, but it's part of how we rank em today.

And yes, your offfense failed to score a single point against Wheaton in a scrimmage in August despite getting the ball 6x inside the Wheaton 50. Wheaton scored 3pts against your defense during that same stretch. What I saw that day, I have seen pretty consitently 2 months later from both teams. Call it irrelevant if you want, I call it data.

Wabash is 5th in the country in offense? Are you kidding me? I must have it all wrong!

See, that's the thing is that you don't get it.  I champion my team on Saturdays and in the NCAC forum, but I do my level best to check that business at the NRFP door and approach this with observation, objectivity, and fairness.  I'm not doing this because it's an extra avenue for me to root for Wabash...I've got plenty of that elsewhere.  I'd be doing this poll a disservice if I just voted for "my team", results and stats and facts be damned. 

So, yes, I reject the idea that a team that scores 49 ppg through seven games has a deficient offense.  Not because that team is Wabash and I really really like them, but because that logic doesn't hold water.  We have a large enough sample size to say pretty definitively that yes, Wabash's offense can score points.  Or if the logic does hold water, then we have to have the same questions and concerns about Heidelberg and North Central and John Carroll and Wittenberg and on and on. 

And you keep digging on Hanover.  Hanover, and you'll love this, but Hanover is as good or better than half (or maybe more?) of the CCIW.  Carthage, Elmhurst, Millikin?  Those are bad, bad, awful teams.  North Park, while a fun story this year, is improved but not particularly good either.  Augustana seems to be maybe a touch better than those, but they did just lose to North Park.  So would any of those teams losing to Hanover be any kind of surprise?  It would not.  It would not be any surprise whatsoever as long as you have the discipline to examine the teams involved and not let yourself be biased by what leagues those teams play in.  So yes, Wabash beat up on Hanover.  North Central and IWU and Wheaton are beating up on a whole league full of Hanovers.  Stones and glass houses with the throwing and all of that.  And yes, Wabash isn't beating anybody all that good either.  But lets just apply our logic points evenly and to everybody.   

[wally_wabash]

I'm interested to see how the first regional ranking break out.  Here is (most of) the relevant data for the North region (d3fb.com lists the UMAC in the north region - but i see in past years st. scholastica was seeded in the west regional rankings - what gives? - i've added them here below).  Here are the signifigant two loss or better teams in the region.  I've only listed signifigant wins (mostly wins against someone else on the list).

Team, overall record, in-region record, losses, signifigant wins, SOS ranking, OWP (OWP rank, OOWP, NCAA aggregate). 

Albion  5-2  5-2  Losses to (Wheaton, Central), 132 .4419 (159) .5667 0.484 
Adrian 6-2  6-2  Losses to (Pacific, Olivet), Wins (Hope) 115  .4694 (131) .5593 0.499
Hope 6-2  6-2  Losses to (IWU, Adrian), Wins (Olivet)  80 .5000 (103) .5710 0.524 
Olivet 6-1  6-1 Loss to (Hope), Wins (Adiran)  197 .3556 (209) .5678 0.426 
Wabash 7-0 7-0  129 .4773 (126) .5032 0.486 
Wittenberg  6-1  6-0 (Loss to Butler*)  96  .5135 (94) .5019 0.510 
Franklin 5-2 5-1  (Losses to Butler*, Mount Union), win (MSJ)  141   .5278 (81) .3865 0.481 
MSJ 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Augustana, Franklin),  210  .3810 (203) .4610 0.408 
IWU  7-0 7-0 Wins (Wheaton, Hope)  131  .4091 (183) .6355 0.485 
North Central 7-0 7-0 Wins (UW-Stevens Point)  201 .3077 (226) .6556 0.424 
Wheaton  6-1 6-1 Loss to (IWU), Wins (Albion)  39    .6098 (38) .5000 0.573 
Concordia 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Augsburg, Trine), Wins (Benedictine)  161  .4615 (142) .4585 0.460 
Benedictine 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Wheaton, Concordia), 138  .4524 (151) .5395 0.481 
Heidelberg 7-0 7-0   230  .1905 (231) .6553 0.345 
John Carroll 7-0 7-0 Wins (St. Norbert)  106  .4634 (135) .5839 0.504 
Mount Union  7-0 7-0 Wins (Franklin)  202 .3250 (221) .6179 0.423 
Chicago 5-2 5-2 Losses to (Rhodes, Pacific)   152  .4390 (169) .5190 0.466 
Wash U. 5-2 5-2 Losses  to (UW-Whitewater, Coe), Wins (Rhodes, Centre)  23  .6410 (24) .5057 0.596 
Greenville 8-0 8-0   213  .3636 (207) .4857 0.404 
St. Scholastica 7-1 7-1 (loss to Whitworth)  200 .4000 (192) .4744 0.425 

Here is my guesstimate at the North Region 10

1. Mount Union (objective criteria be darned - I credit the committee for traditionally calling a spade a spade)
2. John Carroll (better SOS than WAB, IWU, H'burg ,win agains presumptive RRO St. Norbert)
3. Illinois Wesleyan (SOS a toss-up with WAB, win against presumptive RRO Wheaton)
4.  Wabash (better SOS than NC, have to believe that the committee won't completely ignore Witt's D1 loss)
5.  North Central (would have been helped if WW-SP lost fewer games and ended up in west region rankings, ditto on Witt's loss)
6.  Wittenberg  (to be honest, I think 4-7 is a crap shoot, could be in any order, Witt can't slide that far)
7.  Heidelberg  (this low solely based on atrocius (thus far) SOS, which will improve, if they can slay some dragons)
8.  Franklin (gets on the board.  Don't think they can be ranked higher with 2 losses plus 1 in region loss - even against UMU - against so many unbeaten teams.  They will move up once the three week bloodbath commences).
9. Wheaton (toss up with Franklin on final ranking, killer SOS keeps them on the board)
10.  Greenville  (poor SOS - might get thrown a bone and ranked due to clean sheet thus far, if they actually are in region)
---
There's my $0.02,  Wally - you do a better job of this than anybody - what have i missed?

I think you've got the 10 pegged unless something goofy happens like Witt losing to OWU or Greenville losing to Westminster this weekend.  I do think that you'll find Greenville ranked higher than 10th.  I would guess that Greenville lands behind the winner of UMU/Heidelberg, John Carroll, Wabash, winner of NCC/IWU, and I think Franklin.  I'm curious to see how the RAC treats Wittenberg (I kind of think it's tough to put Witt in front of Franklin, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility).  So, I think Greenville lands somewhere between 6 and 8 next week.  And then they'll move up based on other important h2hs that we have over the last two weeks.  They could have an outside shot at a first round home game** when all the dust settles. 

Just one other note...the Fightin' Carlsons of St. Scholastica are a West region team and WashU is South. 

**Edit: Should qualify that statement with a "if possible" because I don't know if Greenville plays in a facility that can host a championship event. 

[bashbrother]

Here is my guesstimate at the North Region 10

1. Mount Union (objective criteria be darned - I credit the committee for traditionally calling a spade a spade)
2. John Carroll (better SOS than WAB, IWU, H'burg ,win agains presumptive RRO St. Norbert)
3. Illinois Wesleyan (SOS a toss-up with WAB, win against presumptive RRO Wheaton)
4.  Wabash (better SOS than NC, have to believe that the committee won't completely ignore Witt's D1 loss)
5.  North Central (would have been helped if WW-SP lost fewer games and ended up in west region rankings, ditto on Witt's loss)
6.  Wittenberg  (to be honest, I think 4-7 is a crap shoot, could be in any order, Witt can't slide that far)
7.  Heidelberg  (this low solely based on atrocius (thus far) SOS, which will improve, if they can slay some dragons)
8.  Franklin (gets on the board.  Don't think they can be ranked higher with 2 losses plus 1 in region loss - even against UMU - against so many unbeaten teams.  They will move up once the three week bloodbath commences).
9. Wheaton (toss up with Franklin on final ranking, killer SOS keeps them on the board)
10.  Greenville  (poor SOS - might get thrown a bone and ranked due to clean sheet thus far, if they actually are in region)
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There's my $0.02,  Wally - you do a better job of this than anybody - what have i missed?

Great post.... that took some time.....  +1 for the effort!