FB: Region 4 fan poll

[smedindy]

And you keep digging on Hanover.  Hanover, and you'll love this, but Hanover is as good or better than half (or maybe more?) of the CCIW.  Carthage, Elmhurst, Millikin?  Those are bad, bad, awful teams.  North Park, while a fun story this year, is improved but not particularly good either.  Augustana seems to be maybe a touch better than those, but they did just lose to North Park.  So would any of those teams losing to Hanover be any kind of surprise?  It would not.  It would not be any surprise whatsoever as long as you have the discipline to examine the teams involved and not let yourself be biased by what leagues those teams play in.  So yes, Wabash beat up on Hanover.  North Central and IWU and Wheaton are beating up on a whole league full of Hanovers.  Stones and glass houses with the throwing and all of that.  And yes, Wabash isn't beating anybody all that good either.  But lets just apply our logic points evenly and to everybody.

Wally? Really?

#162 Hanover?

Augustana beat MSJ who beat Hanover.
Elmhurst hasn't been totally poleaxed in any game, unlike Hanover.
Carthage laid waste to Lakeland, and aside from North Central hasn't been totally blown out.

That trio is probably better than Wooster or Denison. Augie, for sure. I'd say they're better than Hanover.



They're not THAT far apart (Carthage 137, Elmhurst 138)

[wally_wabash]

162 per Massey and Massey is going to dump on any and all HCAC teams because they don't win their non league games.  What did they win? One game this year?  Earlham over Kenyon I think was the only one. 

The Augustana-MSJ-Hanover linkage is fair.   

But beyond that, no, I don't believe those teams (Carthage, Millikin, Elmhust, North Park) are demonstrably better than Hanover.  Hanover is going to wind up 5-5.  I don't think the bottom half of the CCIW would have done much better against the same schedule.  Maybe they could scratch out an extra win somewhere (maybe MSJ or RHIT), but that's about it.  One whole win worth of difference. 

[smedindy]

Certainly, the CCIW teams aren't losing to the bad teams in the HCAC, so there's a line between 'terrible' for the CCIW and TERRIBLE, which is a lot of the HCAC below the Hanover line.

Face it, there are some surprisingly ridiculously bad teams this year and that makes it hard to see where other teams line up before it's go time.

[USee]

Wally,

You highlight all the hard parts about ranking teams and I agree. You are going to champion your team and I get it. You minimize my view point in the process and argue your team is better. I say there is ZERO evidence 5-8 are better than each other, so swap em around if you want. the good news is your "next level" defense and 60+ point vs Hanover offense will have their day in court. If you want to crown them now, go for it. Based on what I have seen so far, Wabash isn't better than the teams I have ranked ahead of them. Sorry if that hurts your feelings. I will be the first one here to say I am wrong when the data shows it. You aren't changing my opinion because "..you just told me".

And some of those teams above you are going to be playing some tougher games than Wabash will before the playoffs start. That's because they play in conferences with tougher opponents. You don't like that either. Sorry. It's a fact. Doesn't mean Wabash won't kick their proverbial tail when they get there chance in November, but it's part of how we rank em today.

And yes, your offfense failed to score a single point against Wheaton in a scrimmage in August despite getting the ball 6x inside the Wheaton 50. Wheaton scored 3pts against your defense during that same stretch. What I saw that day, I have seen pretty consitently 2 months later from both teams. Call it irrelevant if you want, I call it data.

Wabash is 5th in the country in offense? Are you kidding me? I must have it all wrong!

See, that's the thing is that you don't get it. I champion my team on Saturdays and in the NCAC forum, but I do my level best to check that business at the NRFP door and approach this with observation, objectivity, and fairness.  I'm not doing this because it's an extra avenue for me to root for Wabash...I've got plenty of that elsewhere.  I'd be doing this poll a disservice if I just voted for "my team", results and stats and facts be damned. 

So, yes, I reject the idea that a team that scores 49 ppg through seven games has a deficient offense.  Not because that team is Wabash and I really really like them, but because that logic doesn't hold water.  We have a large enough sample size to say pretty definitively that yes, Wabash's offense can score points.  Or if the logic does hold water, then we have to have the same questions and concerns about Heidelberg and North Central and John Carroll and Wittenberg and on and on. 

And you keep digging on Hanover.  Hanover, and you'll love this, but Hanover is as good or better than half (or maybe more?) of the CCIW.  Carthage, Elmhurst, Millikin?  Those are bad, bad, awful teams.  North Park, while a fun story this year, is improved but not particularly good either.  Augustana seems to be maybe a touch better than those, but they did just lose to North Park.  So would any of those teams losing to Hanover be any kind of surprise?  It would not.  It would not be any surprise whatsoever as long as you have the discipline to examine the teams involved and not let yourself be biased by what leagues those teams play in.  So yes, Wabash beat up on Hanover.  North Central and IWU and Wheaton are beating up on a whole league full of Hanovers.  Stones and glass houses with the throwing and all of that.  And yes, Wabash isn't beating anybody all that good either.  But lets just apply our logic points evenly and to everybody.

No, I definitely get it. I should have said you have a Wabash "bias" vs. "champion". That isn't a rooting interest per se, as I believe you try your hardest to put your interests aside. The problem is, that's simply not possible. See, your measuring stick is Wabash because that's the team you see all the time, just like mine is Wheaton. If you rooted for Randolph Macon but lived in C'ville and watched the LG's every Saturday, that might be different. But you simply have more data on your team than you do on any other team so your observations are by definition skewed.

If we were all really honest, we would not be able to vote in this poll for the team we root for. Let's do that and see where the data leads us shall we?

[USee]

162 per Massey and Massey is going to dump on any and all HCAC teams because they don't win their non league games.  What did they win? One game this year?  Earlham over Kenyon I think was the only one. 

The Augustana-MSJ-Hanover linkage is fair.   

But beyond that, no, I don't believe those teams (Carthage, Millikin, Elmhust, North Park) are demonstrably better than Hanover.  Hanover is going to wind up 5-5.  I don't think the bottom half of the CCIW would have done much better against the same schedule.  Maybe they could scratch out an extra win somewhere (maybe MSJ or RHIT), but that's about it.  One whole win worth of difference.

My point RE: Hanover, wasn't to say they are better or worse than those teams in the CCIW. I think what your sensing, and I agree with, is that the CCIW overall is down this year. Heck, Hanover may finish 4th in the CCIW this year if they played that schedule. I don't know. My point was I don't put much weight into Wabash's 49pt average when it is against the likes of Hanover and Allegheny. Same way I didn't think Wheaton was as good on offense as their 69-0 win against Albion (who is 5-2 and probably better than Hanover). My hunch about Wheaton was manifest last Saturday when they could only muster 267 yds of offense and 19 pts against a good IWU team. They failed to score 2x when they had the ball inside the 5 yd line. So in my rankings, and based on the data I have, I haircut Wabash's offense. I don't do that with their defense. I saw that defense and, despite the fact they are destroying bad teams, I think this defense will hold up against better competition. Not so sure about the LG's offense, even with the current production. I could be wrong, but that's my current thinking until I see more data. Witt game will be a reasonable test but ultimately we won't know until the playoffs, where I am pretty sure Wabash won't be scoring 60 pts very often, but I bet their defense holds some good teams well below their averages.

[Mr. Ypsi]

USee, disagree on poll voting.

As you know, I run the d3fanpoll for basketball.  I find that voters fairly consistently vote their own team lowest among the voters (or nearly so).  I have fairly often been among the lowest voters for IWU in the NRFP (AND the fan basketball poll, for that matter).  I see your point (the reason judges are supposed to recuse themselves), but if entirely true, why didn't you give IWU a higher vote in the NRFP?!

[smedindy]

USee, disagree on poll voting.

As you know, I run the d3fanpoll for basketball.  I find that voters fairly consistently vote their own team lowest among the voters (or nearly so).  I have fairly often been among the lowest voters for IWU in the NRFP (AND the fan basketball poll, for that matter).  I see your point (the reason judges are supposed to recuse themselves), but if entirely true, why didn't you give IWU a higher vote in the NRFP?!

I also disagree. I don't have Wabash as high as others and always evaluate them fairly based on the data at hand.

[USee]

Guys, you should bottle your secret sauce and sell it. You would make billions. There is a reason the law system has strict rules about conflicts of interest and even our own RAC members have to recuse themselves when discussing their own teams. Most conferences coaches can't vote for their own team in preseason ballots or for their own players in all conference voting. It's because we all have a built in bias. You can say you try to be objective and discount your own team all you want, but I am not buying it and no one outside this room would buy it either. When you vote for your own team you cannot be objective. That's not my idea, its pretty well accepted outside of here.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Guys, you should bottle your secret sauce and sell it. You would make billions. There is a reason the law system has strict rules about conflicts of interest and even our own RAC members have to recuse themselves when discussing their own teams. Most conferences coaches can't vote for their own team in preseason ballots or for their own players in all conference voting. It's because we all have a built in bias. You can say you try to be objective and discount your own team all you want, but I am not buying it and no one outside this room would buy it either. When you vote for your own team you cannot be objective. That's not my idea, its pretty well accepted outside of here.

Oh, I fully understand (and accept) your point in general.  But the clear evidence for voters in the bball fan poll is that voters strive so hard to NOT be a 'homer', they end up being harder on their own team than other voters are.

[sigma one]

I don/t know how you guys will want to factor this in.  I offer it so that both sides can keep this offense/defense discussion about Wabash going.  The Wabash defense/special teams have scored at least one TD in 6 of the 7 games.  They have 10 TDs total.  Add the PATs and this totals 70 points.  That's 20% of the Wabash total points for the season.
      I've seen all of Wabash's games.  I'm estimating that the first-team offense has played around three-fourths of the total minutes.  The Wabash defense has probably played about 80% of the total minutes.  Reduced minutes for first teams is typical in blowouts of the kind Wabash has created.  Other superior teams are in the same ballpark. 
     I will say this:  Coach Raeburn is generous in two ways.  He rewards his backups by getting them into games as early as possible.  We've seen the starters out in mid/late 3rd quarters in several games when Wabash was in the high 30s or low 40s on points.  The defense may get one or two more series than the offense.  There's a reason Wabash retains so many senior players year in and year out.
     I am prepared to argue that the Wabash offense, sometimes questioned (sometimes by me), is actually better than what many want to admit.  And so is the Wabash defense, if that's possible to imagine.  We have not seen the best from either of them, even though the defense is easier to credit.  Whether the offense or the defense will produce against better competition--well, I hope we get to see that past the end of the regular season.
     A note on Hanover.  The engine of their offense, a fine QB, was injured in the first game and sat out for several weeks.  Without him, the offense was anemic and the defense had to spend way too much time on the field.  I'm not saying Hanover is a better than average team.  Even with him they are pretty average.  Without him they were without hope.  He's been back and Hanover is playing better.  This is just one caution about only looking at scores without considering circumstances.
     As to the Wheaton scrimmage:  Wabash's QB was in his first intercollegiate game.  Holmes, a returning 1000+yard rusher did not play.  He took an early hit and was seated the rest of the day--coaching decision.  Raeburn approaches a scrimmage in a very different way than a lost of coaches.  We've seen this year after year.  Yes, Wabash struggled offensively.  But you can't take that scrimmage of evidence of anything about this Wabash team.  Agree with this or not, that's OK.     

[smedindy]

Guys, you should bottle your secret sauce and sell it. You would make billions. There is a reason the law system has strict rules about conflicts of interest and even our own RAC members have to recuse themselves when discussing their own teams. Most conferences coaches can't vote for their own team in preseason ballots or for their own players in all conference voting. It's because we all have a built in bias. You can say you try to be objective and discount your own team all you want, but I am not buying it and no one outside this room would buy it either. When you vote for your own team you cannot be objective. That's not my idea, its pretty well accepted outside of here.

I'm pretty miffed and offended that you're not taking our word for what we do - the process we go through. That's questioning our integrity - not cool. You're also questioning the integrity of Pat's polling group - since they can and do vote for the schools they coach or cover.

Polls are a different thing than the voting you're talking about - there's nothing that disqualifies someone from voting in a poll no matter what it is. Conflict of interest? In this poll? In the Fan Poll? In the overall Top 25? Right...sure.

[sigma one]

A few more numbers.  Wabash has scored a TOTAL of 44 points in the fourth quarter this year--of 346 total points (just under 13%).  In six of seven games, Wabash has scored, in the 4th, 7, 6, 3, 7, 7, 14, 0.
     The Wabash defense has given up a TOTAL of 17 first-half points, never more than 7 in a single game.  That's two TDs and a FG! They have 4 first-half shutouts.
     Wabash has scored 222 points in quarters 1 and 2--an average of 31.7 points/game.  The defense/special teams' contribution in the first half is 5TDs.  The offense:  23 TDs and 7 FGs. 
      Let's not think that the Wabash offense is incapable of scoring. 
      Other ranked teams I expect have similar numbers.  But those 4th-quarter points say a lot about how Wabash plays the game.
     

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

As has been said... the group that's voting here do their best to be as unbiased as possible and often means being a bit biased in the opposite direction. You can look back in this season's votes and see I was the lowest voter for Franklin most weeks. Ultimately the NRFP, the Fan Top 25 Poll, the d3football.com poll have no bearing on any postseason status, it's just for fun and discussion. The folks that do have say in the postseason do recuse themselves from discussions about their respective teams... unlike D1 where the story has been Florida St not voting themself #1 in the "coaches" poll which is 1/3 of the B(C)S forumla.

[USee]

Guys, you should bottle your secret sauce and sell it. You would make billions. There is a reason the law system has strict rules about conflicts of interest and even our own RAC members have to recuse themselves when discussing their own teams. Most conferences coaches can't vote for their own team in preseason ballots or for their own players in all conference voting. It's because we all have a built in bias. You can say you try to be objective and discount your own team all you want, but I am not buying it and no one outside this room would buy it either. When you vote for your own team you cannot be objective. That's not my idea, its pretty well accepted outside of here.

I'm pretty miffed and offended that you're not taking our word for what we do - the process we go through. That's questioning our integrity - not cool. You're also questioning the integrity of Pat's polling group - since they can and do vote for the schools they coach or cover.

Polls are a different thing than the voting you're talking about - there's nothing that disqualifies someone from voting in a poll no matter what it is. Conflict of interest? In this poll? In the Fan Poll? In the overall Top 25? Right...sure.

Offended? integrity?  what are you smoking? I din't say there was anything wrong with having a bias, but you somehow think that you don't factor it in? That's just not intellectually honest. Even if you vote your team artificially low, that's still an effect of bias. Doesn't mean its right or wrong but not admitting it exists doesn't make it go away. that's ridiculous.you guys aren't above the law. Come on man. Seriously Smed? Wow. 

[Li'l Giant]

Okay, so we're talking about bias. I'm gonna give a bit of what I go through when I pick a jury regarding bias.

Bias is okay. It just means that we prefer one thing over another. The example I use is pizza. I prefer sausage pizza. My wife hates Italian sausage. She's biased against sausage pizza.

Or let's talk trucks; this being Texas. I prefer Ford trucks. My brother, he's a Chevy truck man. He's biased against Ford trucks.

It's a preference. It doesn't mean anything about which pizza or truck is better. You're damn right I'm biased in favor of Wabash. Does my bias, intentional or otherwise, have an influence on where I vote them? Probably. I've had them at #4 the last 4 weeks. One could have them ranked as low as 8 and still not be "wrong". So why do I have them at #4? I could articulate lots of reasons. But could it be bias? Sure?

Look at it this way: Would any of you non-Wabash folks voting in this poll want me officiating a game between Wabash and your school? Bet you wouldn't.

I don't take offense to that bias issue. It just means I'm human. What matters most is that we admit that we have biases. Hiding them? Not cool. Be open about it. I'm a Wabash man and I voted them #4 the last 4 weeks. That is, as they say, what it is.