FB: Region 4 fan poll

[TitanPride]

For those scoring the regional rankings at home, here is an update of last week's snapshot of relevant teams:

Team, overall record, in-region record, losses, signifigant wins, SOS ranking, OWP (OWP rank, OOWP, NCAA aggregate). 

Albion  6-2  6-2  Losses to (Wheaton, Central), Win (Olivet) 95    5000 (104) .5424 0.514 
Hope 7-2 7-2  Losses to (IWU, Adrian), Wins (Olivet)  104  4762 (135) .5692 0.507 
Olivet 6-2  6-2 Losses to (Hope, Albion)  186     .3966 (207) .5400 0.444   
Wabash 8-0 8-0  145  .4643 (152) .5068 0.478 
Wittenberg  7-1  7-0 Loss to (Butler*)  102    .5102 (97) .5078 0.509 
Franklin 6-2 6-1  Losses to (Butler*, Mount Union),  157  .4898 (121) .4352 0.472 
IWU  7-1 7-1 Wins (Wheaton, Hope), Loss (North Central)  101  .4737 (137) .5815 0.510 
North Central 8-0 8-0 Win (IWU)  153  4151 (187) .5914 0.474 
Wheaton  7-1 7-1 Loss to (IWU), Wins (Albion)  65     .5455 (68) .5147 0.535
Concordia 6-2 6-2 Losses to (Augsburg, Trine), Wins (Benedictine)  209   4038 (203) .4604 0.423   
Benedictine 6-2 6-2 Losses to (Wheaton, Concordia), 175     .4286 (177) .5146 0.457
Heidelberg 7-1 7-1 Loss to (Mount Union)  219  .3091 (230) .5995 0.406 
John Carroll 8-0 8-0 Wins (St. Norbert)  172    .4182 (182) .5525 0.463   
Mount Union  8-0 8-0 Wins (Franklin, Heidelberg)  165    .4259 (179) .5535 0.468
Greenville 9-0 9-0  Win (Eureka)  224     3509 (225) .4858 0.396 

I've dropped the three loss teams from the list. 

My revised guesses for this week's North region rankings:

1. Mount Union  (wins against RRO Franklin, Heidelberg)
2. North Central  (quality win against RRO IWU, better SOS than John Carroll)
3. Wabash   (Wabash's SOS edges John Carroll, could easly see 3 and 4 flipped, Witt: will post more on NCAC page).
4.  John Carroll  (Witt has better SOS, but 1 non D3 loss)
5.  Wittenberg  (see my post on NCAC page)
6.  Greenville (Wally convinced me they belong higher, even with a lousy SOS.)
7.  Illinois Wesleyan (tempted to rank them lower than Franklin b/c of NCC game, but strong SOS keems them here)
8  Wheaton (loss to IWU, who lost to NCC pushed them low, but killer SOS keeps them here
9.  Franklin (played UMU closer than Heidelberg, better SOS than the princes, but 2 losses still hurts - will move up as the herd thins above)
10.  Heidelberg  (low SOS, but can still pick up good claim to move way up the list with a win this weekend)

Nice work.  One note, according to the podcast today, Greenville is a West Region team.  Also listed here:  http://d3football.com/teams/west.  So you can slide someone else in. 

[wabndy]

Nice work.  One note, according to the podcast today, Greenville is a West Region team.  Also listed here:  http://d3football.com/teams/west.  So you can slide someone else in.

Thanks - hadn't had a chance to listen yet.  Thanks Wally . . .

I do think that you'll find Greenville ranked higher than 10th.  I would guess that Greenville lands behind the winner of UMU/Heidelberg, John Carroll, Wabash, winner of NCC/IWU, and I think Franklin. 

With that change, I'd then say:
6. IWU
7. Wheaton
8. Franklin
9. Heidelberg
10. Albion (of the two loss teams, they have a slightly stronger SOS than Hope, a win over Olivet, and signifigantly stronger SOS than Benedictine or Concordia).

[wally_wabash]

Greenville being a West region team is new since I talked about them last week.  They were definitely listed on the North Region page last week...unless I have completely lost my mind, which isn't out of the question. 

And now I need to find a new team to vote for...

[ExTartanPlayer]

Greenville being a West region team is new since I talked about them last week.  They were definitely listed on the North Region page last week...unless I have completely lost my mind, which isn't out of the question. 

And now I need to find a new team to vote for...

No, you haven't lost your mind.  I remember looking and noting that St. Scholastica was the only UMAC team listed in the West, while the rest of the UMAC was listed in the North.  Now the entire UMAC is listed in the West.  May have been overlooked and corrected when the new page was rolled out?  I haven't listened to the podcast yet so IDK if this was just recently explained why the UMAC is now entirely listed in the West.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

For those scoring the regional rankings at home, here is an update of last week's snapshot of relevant teams:

Team, overall record, in-region record, losses, signifigant wins, SOS ranking, OWP (OWP rank, OOWP, NCAA aggregate). 

Albion  6-2  6-2  Losses to (Wheaton, Central), Win (Olivet) 95    5000 (104) .5424 0.514 
Hope 7-2 7-2  Losses to (IWU, Adrian), Wins (Olivet)  104  4762 (135) .5692 0.507 
Olivet 6-2  6-2 Losses to (Hope, Albion)  186     .3966 (207) .5400 0.444   
Wabash 8-0 8-0  145  .4643 (152) .5068 0.478 
Wittenberg  7-1  7-0 Loss to (Butler*)  102    .5102 (97) .5078 0.509 
Franklin 6-2 6-1  Losses to (Butler*, Mount Union),  157  .4898 (121) .4352 0.472 
IWU  7-1 7-1 Wins (Wheaton, Hope), Loss (North Central)  101  .4737 (137) .5815 0.510 
North Central 8-0 8-0 Win (IWU)  153  4151 (187) .5914 0.474 
Wheaton  7-1 7-1 Loss to (IWU), Wins (Albion)  65     .5455 (68) .5147 0.535
Concordia 6-2 6-2 Losses to (Augsburg, Trine), Wins (Benedictine)  209   4038 (203) .4604 0.423   
Benedictine 6-2 6-2 Losses to (Wheaton, Concordia), 175     .4286 (177) .5146 0.457
Heidelberg 7-1 7-1 Loss to (Mount Union)  219  .3091 (230) .5995 0.406 
John Carroll 8-0 8-0 Wins (St. Norbert)  172    .4182 (182) .5525 0.463   
Mount Union  8-0 8-0 Wins (Franklin, Heidelberg)  165    .4259 (179) .5535 0.468
Greenville 9-0 9-0  Win (Eureka)  224     3509 (225) .4858 0.396 

I've dropped the three loss teams from the list. 

My revised guesses for this week's North region rankings:

1. Mount Union  (wins against RRO Franklin, Heidelberg)
2. North Central  (quality win against RRO IWU, better SOS than John Carroll)
3. Wabash   (Wabash's SOS edges John Carroll, could easly see 3 and 4 flipped, Witt: will post more on NCAC page).
4.  John Carroll  (Witt has better SOS, but 1 non D3 loss)
5.  Wittenberg  (see my post on NCAC page)
6.  Greenville (Wally convinced me they belong higher, even with a lousy SOS.)
7.  Illinois Wesleyan (tempted to rank them lower than Franklin b/c of NCC game, but strong SOS keems them here)
8  Wheaton (loss to IWU, who lost to NCC pushed them low, but killer SOS keeps them here
9.  Franklin (played UMU closer than Heidelberg, better SOS than the princes, but 2 losses still hurts - will move up as the herd thins above)
10.  Heidelberg  (low SOS, but can still pick up good claim to move way up the list with a win this weekend)

Nice work.  One note, according to the podcast today, Greenville is a West Region team.  Also listed here:  http://d3football.com/teams/west.  So you can slide someone else in.

solid work etc.  however it exposes the flaws in the entire NCAA ranking system based on limited comparitive metrics and raw numbers.  Anyone that truly thinks that Franklin is fairly seeded as the 9th best team in the North Region is kidding themselves.  The GRIZ will move up based on upcoming games (assuming Bash wins and UMU and NCC hold serve).  Hopefully FC will not be punished for scheduling up versus scheduling themselves to a better seed. 

[smedindy]

Remember, only one Griz loss counts, the Butler game never happened in the eyes of the NCAA.

[wally_wabash]

solid work etc.  however it exposes the flaws in the entire NCAA ranking system based on limited comparitive metrics and raw numbers.  Anyone that truly thinks that Franklin is fairly seeded as the 9th best team in the North Region is kidding themselves.  The GRIZ will move up based on upcoming games (assuming Bash wins and UMU and NCC hold serve).  Hopefully FC will not be punished for scheduling up versus scheduling themselves to a better seed.

I like where your head is at, GB.  Keep that up. 

I'm not totally sure where to expect Franklin to land in Wendesday's RRs, but I have a hard time believing that after the attrition coming in the next two weeks that Franklin won't be the top single-loss team on the board.  Whether that gets them a home game or not, I don't know.  That all depends on how much weight the Butler game gets.  Undefeated teams that are in Franklin's travel zone would be Mount Union (doubtful to see a rematch there plus I think Mount Union is going to be in an easterly influenced quadrant), North Central, Wabash, Whitewater, Illinois College.  If you see all of those teams in the same quadrant, Franklin may not get to host a first round game.  Will be interesting to see how the RAC treats Franklin and those two close losses. 

[GRIZ_BACKER]

solid work etc.  however it exposes the flaws in the entire NCAA ranking system based on limited comparitive metrics and raw numbers.  Anyone that truly thinks that Franklin is fairly seeded as the 9th best team in the North Region is kidding themselves.  The GRIZ will move up based on upcoming games (assuming Bash wins and UMU and NCC hold serve).  Hopefully FC will not be punished for scheduling up versus scheduling themselves to a better seed.

I like where your head is at, GB.  Keep that up. 

I'm not totally sure where to expect Franklin to land in Wendesday's RRs, but I have a hard time believing that after the attrition coming in the next two weeks that Franklin won't be the top single-loss team on the board.  Whether that gets them a home game or not, I don't know.  That all depends on how much weight the Butler game gets.  Undefeated teams that are in Franklin's travel zone would be Mount Union (doubtful to see a rematch there plus I think Mount Union is going to be in an easterly influenced quadrant), North Central, Wabash, Whitewater, Illinois College.  If you see all of those teams in the same quadrant, Franklin may not get to host a first round game.  Will be interesting to see how the RAC treats Franklin and those two close losses.

If I had to bet my house in Vegas I say the Griz end up 4th and will host the OAC/CCIW second place.  Or get to play at an Illinois College (FC will pound them just like they did Adrian last year) and get the second round "death sentence". (assumption that NCC, Bash, and Whitewater are 10-0 and UMU goes East). 

If Witt wins instead, The GRIZ could be a 3.  The problem with the entire seeding is that the selection folks are not as familiar with the teams and pure numbers play a more significant role.  Regardless of whether Butler counts it really should.  Both FC and Witt get no love for scheduling a difficult opponent. 

[smedindy]

I disagree on scheduling Butler. The criteria is known, and perhaps there was no other attractive game that week, but it does nothing for Franklin and Witt and does nothing for their SOS or their conferences SOS.

Most of my wrath is at Witt for that - because that was their only at-large bite.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I disagree on scheduling Butler. The criteria is known, and perhaps there was no other attractive game that week, but it does nothing for Franklin and Witt and does nothing for their SOS or their conferences SOS.

Most of my wrath is at Witt for that - because that was their only at-large bite.

Bottom line, FC needs to find a way to get teams like Witt, Bash, etc on the schedule versus 1AA etc.  I agree.  Scheduling Mount and Whitewater is one thing but they need to find a solid D3 for the seocnd non conference.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Greenville being a West region team is new since I talked about them last week.  They were definitely listed on the North Region page last week...unless I have completely lost my mind, which isn't out of the question. 

And now I need to find a new team to vote for...

No, you haven't lost your mind.  I remember looking and noting that St. Scholastica was the only UMAC team listed in the West, while the rest of the UMAC was listed in the North.  Now the entire UMAC is listed in the West.  May have been overlooked and corrected when the new page was rolled out?  I haven't listened to the podcast yet so IDK if this was just recently explained why the UMAC is now entirely listed in the West.

I only remember seeing 3 teams from the UMAC in the North... Eureka, Greenville and MacMurray since they were all in Illinois... I still see the other two listed on the North page as well as Westminster?

[bashbrother]

I disagree on scheduling Butler. The criteria is known, and perhaps there was no other attractive game that week, but it does nothing for Franklin and Witt and does nothing for their SOS or their conferences SOS.

Most of my wrath is at Witt for that - because that was their only at-large bite.

Bottom line, FC needs to find a way to get teams like Witt, Bash, etc on the schedule versus 1AA etc.  I agree.  Scheduling Mount and Whitewater is one thing but they need to find a solid D3 for the seocnd non conference.

I hope Wabash follows suit......  while the Hanover game wasn't the worst, it will surely not help them that much.  I would much rather see the Little Giants pick up an In-region... top half of their conference opponent for their non-conference game.     Next year and in 2015,  we open up with a good program,  in Hampden-Sydney College...although I believe it is out of region.    But it should help Wabash's overall strength of schedule a bit.?

[Dr. Acula]

One problem for FC is that the OAC and NCAC both only play 1 non-conference game now.  They'd have to play the bye week dance with them.  For instance, this year they could have played Mount 9/7 and BW 9/14.  I was going to say someone like TMC might be a good second option, but with the MSJ game locked in they only have 1 other OOC game as well. 

p.s. If there was a way to make Franklin/Wabash the opener every year that'd be awesome.

[wabndy]

I agree that Witt's scheduling of Butler as its sole non-conference game was not the best choice from a playoff perspective.  Knowing that you might need all the help you can get to convice voters to give you a Pool C bid if you don't get the AQ . . . I just don't see it.

I don't have nearly as much beef with Franklin going to D1.  Franklin's coach has long been quoted as wanting to give his players early experience with the best competition he can find.  I think that philosophy has helped make Franklin a much better football team.  Given the competition in the HCAC, Franklin knows that it 1) has to win it's AQ bid, and 2) if it doesn't, Pool C is not likely to come calling.  Franklin should feel pretty confident that it will run the table in the HCAC (you can think like that when you haven't lost a conference game since 2009).  If Franklin thinks that Butler is the best competition it can schedule for an open date, and it won't affect their conference standing, then I don't think they can be faulted for doing that.  What do they give up by scheduling a UMU/UWW and a D1 opponent?  At best, maybe a 3 or 4 seed in the final regional bracket had they just run the table on some less challenging opponents - which amounts to maybe one home playoff game.   I don't think its unreasonable to choose to put on the line vs getting your team ready for a long season.

For both teams, would Butler count as a "money game"?  Would there be a financial benefit to playing a D1 non-scholarship game?

[sigma one]

I've been down this road before here or on the NCAC board.  We all have to realize that is is not that easy to schedule out-of-conference games, particularly when there is only one game to be scheduled.  Coach A doesn't just call Coach B and say "let's play."  Many factors are involved.  Maybe they should not be, but they are.  We, as fans, want to see particular match ups, and for our own good reason in terms of the competition.  Schools often think differently.  Franklin's philosophy (however admirable or however foolish) is rare.
     My guess about Wittenberg and Butler playing this year (and next, by the way) is that Wittenberg might not have been able to get another CLOSE BY school to play them in that first game.  OAC teams have only that one non-conference date.  Other teams whose geography makes sense well might not have wanted to face the Old Tigers.  Well, you say, go East or West.  To where, exactly.?  Who would want to schedule them; maybe someone, maybe no one.  It's the same problem of their strength.  And that's not even taking into account an administration who might be saying hold down the expenses.  (I have no idea whether the Wittenberg administration is saying that, but I can imagine that lots of administrations do say that.)
     Wittenberg calls up Schools A through (pick a letter) and they all say no.  Butler's open, OK.  Or thinking about it the other way around, Butler has not always been as strong as they are now.  Butler might have called Witt a few years ago, when Witt was banging everyone around, seeking a game.  And Witt said yes.  Both think that they would get good competition and a win.
     Suffice to say, scheduling is more complicated than we perceive or want to imagine it is. 
     Not long ago, I said I would later say something about my dislike of Wabash v. Hampden-Sydney.  One thing I will say now is that I don't like the match because of its out-of-region status.  Another thing is that I don't believe the arrangement started with either head coach but was a product coming out of administrative discussion and decision-making at a much higher level.  (What did I just say about complexities.)