FB: Region 4 fan poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Needed something to do for the next couple days around here... I know Wally is the prognosticator of all things postseason related, but I thought I'd throw in my thoughts about how the double secret probation final regional rankings might look in the North. I should point out that a) I'm not nearly as proficient in NCAA thinking as Wally is and b) I absolutely hate the SoS number in football because there's not nearly enough data points for it to be of any use (just compare #17 Framingham St and #153 Mount Union and tell me Framingham has played such an incredibly stronger schedule than Mount Union )

To start let's assume NCC, Witt, IWU, Wabash, Wheaton, Franklin, and Heidelberg all win (which obviously isn't a guarantee but is the most likely outcome).
I don't see any of them changing spots over each other except that I think Heidelberg edges ahead of Franklin. Not sure how they ended up tied this week.

If Hope wins I think they stay where they are, if they lose... I think Albion will just slip in at 10th.

Now the biggie... if Mount wins they obviously stay #1 but I don't think JC drops too far. Witt would pass them and I think IWU does too. They'd be 1-1 vs RRO compared to IWU going 2-1 (as long as Hope wins). But they'd stay ahead of 0-1 Wabash.
If John Carroll wins... I think by the slimmest of margins NCC would stay ahead and take #1 with John Carroll 2nd... both 2-0 vs RRO... similar SoS... but based on where the RRO will be ranked I give that slight edge to NCC. Mount meanwhile falls down to the IWU area... both would be 2-1 vs RRO but at the moment IWU has the edge in that dreaded SoS number.

1) Mount Union/North Central
2) North Central/John Carroll
3) Wittenberg
4) Illinois Wesleyan
5) Mount Union vs John Carroll loser
6) Wabash
7) Wheaton
8) Hope/Heidelberg
9) Heidelberg/Franklin
10) Franklin/Albion

So after all that thought... I'm not sure why I did it And because I did it, someone will lose that shouldn't (please don't do that again Franklin) and render it all moot. That or I'll have made such a glaring error or omission that Wally will chastise me for daring to step into his realm Maybe I should just go to sleep and stop trying to think at 4:30am

[wally_wabash]

It's not out of the question that NCC could be #1 if JCU wins.  I would favor JCU to go ahead and slip into #1 if they beat Mount Union.  They'd be 2-0 against RRO as NCC is and one of those two for JCU is Mount Union.  Hard to get a better pelt than that on the wall. 

If JCU loses, then they probably slip behind IWU but only if Hope wins the MIAA.  If Hope loses and slips out of the rankings, then IWU loses a feather in their cap (which is their only real advantage over the Streaks) and if my quick estimation is close, JCU is going to hop IWU in SOS on Saturday. 

I should probably make a quick note on SOS...as you've pointed out, it's really not as simple as just doing the math and ranking the teams.  The NCAA's SOS calculation is a really rudimentary way of trying to measure how good the teams you played are (OWP) and how good the teams they played are (OOWP).  It's a decent enough tool, but it definitely shouldn't be used without further examination.  My rule of thumb is that schedule strengths aren't really THAT much different until you get around a 0.050 difference.  To give you an idea of the slice of D3 that is included there, if you take the 0.050 window around 0.500, you get 75 teams (1/3 of the playoff eligible D3 universe) bookended by Oberlin on the high end and Mount Union on the low end.  So when I see SOS's separated by 0.010 or 0.020 I generally pretty much count them as being the same.  I try not to get too caught up in the numerical rankings (those differences can be deceptively large) and look at the actual SOS result itself. 

Now, if the North RAC wanted to play the game, they could slip Wooster into the final rankings and give Wabash an RRO win.  Just saying.  The East is doing it.  IWU doesn't really need the extra RRO win.  Come on, RAC,  do the region a solid.  Wooster is the 10th best team in the region.  I promise.  They are.   

I'm already a nervous wreck over this bubble thing.  Going to be a rough few days here. 

[smedindy]

Thing is that Brockport definitely could claim to be the 10th best East team. Their Massey rating is 37th. Their three losses are by a combined 12 points, including an OT loss to Alfred and a close loss to Rowan, and they pounded Lycoming into the dust.

So the East may be 'gaming' it a bit, but not in a truly underhanded way.

[smedindy]

In Massey, Mt. Union's SOS is 106th and Framingham's is 159th. Framingham scheduled smart by playing Endicott and Rowan in non-conference, and their league held its own in non-conference but that's usually the weakest area of D3.

[wally_wabash]

Thing is that Brockport definitely could claim to be the 10th best East team. Their Massey rating is 37th. Their three losses are by a combined 12 points, including an OT loss to Alfred and a close loss to Rowan, and they pounded Lycoming into the dust.

So the East may be 'gaming' it a bit, but not in a truly underhanded way.

No, they could be.  Keith pinpointed them as a possible 10th team in the pre-rankings primer yesterday.  But why 6-3 Brockport and not 6-3 Widener.  Or Lycoming.  Or Albright.  Or Delaware Valley.  Or 6-2 Western Connecticut.  Or Endicott.  I'm not saying there is anything underhanded going on, just interesting that of all of the available choices, the one with the biggest possible positive domino effect is the one they chose.  Just interesting is all. 

[wally_wabash]

My end of regular season ballot:

1- Mount Union
2- North Central
3- Witt
4- John Carroll
5- IWU
6- Wabash
7- Franklin
8- Albion
9- Concordia (Wis)
10- Hope

With only ten spots for the entire region, you're not gonna get three from the same conference. 

[ADL70]

With only ten spots for the entire region, you're not gonna get three from the same conference.

+K

[USee]

My end of regular season ballot:

1- Mount Union
2- North Central
3- Witt
4- John Carroll
5- IWU
6- Wabash
7- Franklin
8- Albion
9- Concordia (Wis)
10- Hope

With only ten spots for the entire region, you're not gonna get three from the same conference.

Well that's rational. You could be on the national selection committee with that line of thinking.

[USee]

Ok, I'll admit.  I was offline for a couple days and hadn't read the complete nonsense from the interview with chairman Stupid.  I read this first and thought Wally had sprung a leak.  Now, after reading enough to become physically ill, I get it.  Very funny.  Very, very funny actually.  Well played W2

[DPU3619]

Sorry for the delay, gang. Here's the Final Regular Season North Region Fan Poll.  One more when Mount Union is the only one left (or something strange happens.)

1.   Mount Union           80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2.   North Central         71 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3)
3.   John Carroll            62 pts (2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4)
4.   Wittenberg             59 pts (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4)
5.   Illinois Wesleyan    47 pts (5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6)
6.   Wabash                  35 pts (6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7)
7.   Franklin                   32 pts (5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9)
8.   Heidelberg              23 pts (6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9)
9.   Wheaton                21 pts (6, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 10)
10. Albion                     10 pts (8, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10)

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, NCF, wally_wabash, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, USee, and myself.

[DPU3619]

If you folks wouldn't mind sending me your end of the year ballots, I'd like to get the poll up soonish before we put this season to bed.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

So when is the final poll going to be up?

[DPU3619]

I was waiting on one more, but I'll go ahead with what we have. I'll have it tonight.

[DPU3619]

Here it is - the season ending North Region Fan Poll

1. Mount Union             79 pts  (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2)
2. North Central            73 pts  (1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2)   
3. Wittenberg                63 pts  (3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4)
4. John Carroll               49 pts (3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7)
5. Franklin                    42 pts (4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 9)
6. Illinois Wesleyan        40 pts (4, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8)
7. Wabash                     36 pts (5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8)
8. Wheaton                   27 pts (5, 5, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9)
9. Heidelberg                 23 pts (6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9)
10. Albion                       7 pts  (10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, -)

ARV Hope                       1 pts  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)


The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, NCF, wally_wabash, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, USee, and myself.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Might as well get my ballot out of the way so everyone knows where all the odd votes came from

1. Mount Union             79 pts  (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2)
2. North Central            73 pts  (1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2)   
3. Wittenberg                63 pts  (3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4)
4. John Carroll               49 pts (3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7)
5. Franklin                    42 pts (4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 9)
6. Illinois Wesleyan        40 pts (4, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8)
7. Wabash                     36 pts (5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8)
8. Wheaton                   27 pts (5, 5, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9)
9. Heidelberg                 23 pts (6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9)
10. Albion                       7 pts  (10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, -)

ARV Hope                       1 pts  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

Already had the discussion about Mount-NCC on the Top 25 board. I know a lot of people are all about H2H results but a one point win in no way says better team to me. And looking at all the other results from this season, NCC is more impressive to me than Mount was.