FB: Region 4 fan poll

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's the Pre-Season North Region Fan Poll:

1.  Mount Union         80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2.  North Central        70 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3)
T3. John Carroll         54 pts (2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6)
T3. Wabash               54 pts (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 7)
5.  Wittenberg           41 pts (3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 8, 9, -)
6.  Wheaton              39 pts (5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 8)
T7. Franklin               35 pts (4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9)
T7. Heidelberg           35 pts (3, 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9)
9.   Illinois Wesleyan  15 pts (7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, -, -)
10. Wooster                7 pts (8, 10, 10, 10, 10, -, -)

ARV:
Albion                         4 pts (9, 10, 10, -, -, -, -, -)
Mount St. Joseph         4 pts  (7, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Olivet                          1 pt  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Adrian                         1 pt  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, USee, Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, wally_wabash, and myself.

Since we're talking about what stands out... who had MSJ at 7th? I didn't even have them on my watch list which had about 6 extra teams on it... then again I didn't have Wooster on it either so

[DPU3619]

I'm the 4 for Franklin. I'm always that guy with them, though. I must be the President of the Mike Leonard Fan Club.

[USee]

I voted MT SJ. They have 18 returning starters and the best backfield combo in their league. I think Franklin is vulnerable with 11 returning starters (9 offense and 2 defense) and two tough games @IWU and v UWW. MSJ gets Franklin at home and outside of that, @Hanover looks like their only real test. I like them at 8-2 and challenging for the AQ. But its preseason so I could be completely wrong. They host Augie in week 1 so will adjust as needed.

[USee]

my ballot for the week is in.

[DPU3619]

Waiting on one more.

[BashDad]

I voted MT SJ. They have 18 returning starters and the best backfield combo in their league. I think Franklin is vulnerable with 11 returning starters (9 offense and 2 defense) and two tough games @IWU and v UWW. MSJ gets Franklin at home and outside of that, @Hanover looks like their only real test. I like them at 8-2 and challenging for the AQ. But its preseason so I could be completely wrong. They host Augie in week 1 so will adjust as needed.

Catching up over here -- found this interesting. You seem to be suggesting that a team's ability to win against its schedule is as relevant as its ability to hypothetically win against the teams you're also ranking.  True? 

[USee]

I voted MT SJ. They have 18 returning starters and the best backfield combo in their league. I think Franklin is vulnerable with 11 returning starters (9 offense and 2 defense) and two tough games @IWU and v UWW. MSJ gets Franklin at home and outside of that, @Hanover looks like their only real test. I like them at 8-2 and challenging for the AQ. But its preseason so I could be completely wrong. They host Augie in week 1 so will adjust as needed.

Catching up over here -- found this interesting. You seem to be suggesting that a team's ability to win against its schedule is as relevant as its ability to hypothetically win against the teams you're also ranking.  True?

Definitely not. I am just making the case that if they are as good as Franklin this year (and Franklin may not be as good as years past) then they are in my North top ten. One of the primary evaluation tools we have for a team is how they do against its schedule. Before the playoffs, its all speculation beyond that. If they prove they belong in the top ten, then yes, that means I think they can beat most of those below them.

[BashDad]

Right, but forecasting how team x will fare against their scheduled opponents--and using that forecast to qualify that team against another--seems beside the point to me. A poll is different from a playoff projection. But maybe I'm just confused.

[USee]

Right, but forecasting how team x will fare against their scheduled opponents--and using that forecast to qualify that team against another--seems beside the point to me. A poll is different from a playoff projection. But maybe I'm just confused.

Maybe I am confused. How would you do it? To be clear, I am certainly not implying that if Mt St Joe's wins the HCAC they should be ranked #1 in the North Region poll. I made a case for why they are in my top ten. They subsequently just pounded Augie, who was picked to finish #4 in the CCIW, right behind IWU so I don't think its completely out of the question.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Right, but forecasting how team x will fare against their scheduled opponents--and using that forecast to qualify that team against another--seems beside the point to me. A poll is different from a playoff projection. But maybe I'm just confused.

Maybe I am confused. How would you do it? To be clear, I am certainly not implying that if Mt St Joe's wins the HCAC they should be ranked #1 in the North Region poll. I made a case for why they are in my top ten. They subsequently just pounded Augie, who was picked to finish #4 in the CCIW, right behind IWU so I don't think its completely out of the question.

I don't think he's arguing with the fact that MSJ may be rank-worthy; I think what he's saying is that the caliber of the team should determine the ranking, not just the likelihood of winning all of their games.  Using an extreme example: now that they won their OOC opener, St. Scholastica is likely to run the table in the UMAC and finish 10-0 if the past is any indication.  St. John's will have a significantly harder path to 10-0 through the MIAC.  Deciding to rank St. Scholastica ahead of St. John's because I think that CSS has a better chance of going undefeated is a flawed premise.  I should be ranking CSS over St. John's because I think they're a better team, not because I think they have a better chance to go undefeated.

[wally_wabash]

I'm getting way ahead, but I'll be interested to see what folks do with Franklin next week. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm getting way ahead, but I'll be interested to see what folks do with Franklin next week.

Well, for THIS week, I'm the only one who kept Franklin in the poll.  (Preseason I had them #10; I dropped them to #17, raising IWU to #16, because losing by just one TD on a ranked opponent's field is no disgrace.  I was surprised that I was their sole votes.

Unless they are totally eviscerated by unanimous #1 UWW, I'll still have them on my ballot; but suspect I will continue to be their sole supporter unless they play a very close game (in which case they'll get support from several others) or actually pull the upset (in which case I'd imagine everyone will jump on the bandwagon.

OOPS - I just noticed I was on the North Region fan poll page!   For the North, I have IWU rising from 7 to 6, Franklin falling from 4 to 7.  But my comments on the UWW @ Franklin game still hold (except I doubt I'm the ONLY supporter of Franklin this week).

[USee]

Right, but forecasting how team x will fare against their scheduled opponents--and using that forecast to qualify that team against another--seems beside the point to me. A poll is different from a playoff projection. But maybe I'm just confused.

Maybe I am confused. How would you do it? To be clear, I am certainly not implying that if Mt St Joe's wins the HCAC they should be ranked #1 in the North Region poll. I made a case for why they are in my top ten. They subsequently just pounded Augie, who was picked to finish #4 in the CCIW, right behind IWU so I don't think its completely out of the question.

I don't think he's arguing with the fact that MSJ may be rank-worthy; I think what he's saying is that the caliber of the team should determine the ranking, not just the likelihood of winning all of their games.  Using an extreme example: now that they won their OOC opener, St. Scholastica is likely to run the table in the UMAC and finish 10-0 if the past is any indication.  St. John's will have a significantly harder path to 10-0 through the MIAC.  Deciding to rank St. Scholastica ahead of St. John's because I think that CSS has a better chance of going undefeated is a flawed premise.  I should be ranking CSS over St. John's because I think they're a better team, not because I think they have a better chance to go undefeated.

I completely agree with this.  Which is why I am confused w BashDads confusion! I am using the tools at my disposal to see where MT St Joe should be ranked and I have them at 7.  I think they are better than all the MIAA candidates and I think they will beat franklin, who I think will turn out to be a pretty good team, if not 7-3. 

[DPU3619]

NRFP Week 2

1. Mount Union         80 pts  (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. North Central        69 pts  (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3)
3. Wabash                63 pts  (2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5)
4. John Carroll          55 pts  (2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6)
5. Wittenberg           45 pts  (4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8)
6. Wheaton              40 pts  (5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7)
T7. Heidelberg          30 pts  (4, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9)
T7. Illinois Wesleyan 30 pts  (5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8)
9. Mount St Joseph    11 pts (7, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, -, -)
10. Franklin               9 pts  (7, 9, 10, 10, 10, -, -, -)


ARV
Adrian                       3 pts  (9, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Northern            2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Olivet                        2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                       1 pt   (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Usee, NCF, Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, wally_wabash, and myself.

[wally_wabash]

NRFP Week 2

1. Mount Union         80 pts  (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. North Central        69 pts  (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3)
3. Wabash                63 pts  (2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5)
4. John Carroll          55 pts  (2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6)
5. Wittenberg           45 pts  (4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8)
6. Wheaton              40 pts  (5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7)
T7. Heidelberg          30 pts  (4, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9)
T7. Illinois Wesleyan 30 pts  (5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8)
9. Mount St Joseph    11 pts (7, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, -, -)
10. Franklin               9 pts  (7, 9, 10, 10, 10, -, -, -)


ARV
Adrian                       3 pts  (9, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Northern            2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Olivet                        2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                       1 pt   (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Usee, NCF, Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, wally_wabash, and myself.

- I bumped Wabash up to #2 because, well, that was impressive.  Wabash now has the most impressive non-league pelt that anybody in the region is going to get (barring Franklin doing something wild on Saturday).  Wabash also got a bump because of the John Carroll situation addressed in a second.  Fair to North Central?  Perhaps not, but they get a chance to play this week while Wabash sits out, so they could make a case to jump back. 
- I moved John Carroll down from 2 because without Myers, they aren't part of a real conversation about being the second best team in the region. 
- I actually moved Witt up from 8 because I was pretty convinced that they'd catch a wicked beatdown and they far exceeded my expectation. 
- IWU and MSJ came in to my 10.  IWU for obvious reasons (pretty easy swap with the h2h result with Franklin) and MSJ was impressive. 
-Franklin and Wooster out for me.  I had considered keeping Franklin in the top 10, but they got shredded by a freshman making his first start (something that NEVER happens at IWU) and if that's the defense they'll be featuring, they aren't a top 10 team here.  Looking at Wooster's future schedule, they'll probably need a win over Wabash or Witt to get back on my list.