FB: Region 4 fan poll

[wally_wabash]

Hey, look who showed up against Marietta- Cartel Brooks and his 249 yards.  Heidelberg is all glamour muscles, no core.  Not in my ten. 

[Pat Coleman]

I had similar thoughts in Triple Take. I am not in love with that turn of events.

[smedindy]

Of course, there has to be a team BETTER than them, or a few. None of the MIAA teams to me are. None of the HCAC teams are, really, except maybe Franklin. Not sold on MSJ.  None of the NCAC teams are, really. No one south of Wheaton / North Central in the CCIW.  They beat a good Otterbein team in the OAC. Chicago? Dunno.

So this may just be a absolutist way of thinking because a good team doesn't match up with better teams so you unfairly penalize them because they're not elite.

Massey has Heidelberg at 41 right now, and there's enough data where the ratings start to make sense. He has Wheaton at 42.

[Li'l Giant]

Hey, look who showed up against Marietta- Cartel Brooks and his 249 yards.  Heidelberg is all glamour muscles, no core.  Not in my ten.

Weren't in my top ten either.

[smedindy]

Massey ratings in the North (he's got the NESCAC in there, normalized to null football team across all divsions and not D-3, but you can see the relative ratings anyway); there's enough games and connectivity now that it makes sense. Results build on results so teams that beat other teams can be lower based on their other results and wins and losses.

6. Mt. Union (actually 5th before you go nuts because Amherst is in there- the four in front of them are very plausible).
14. John Carroll
16. Wabash
28. Wittenberg
30. North Central
41. Heidelberg
42. Wheaton (dinged for their non-conference and close wins to meh teams).
75. Otterbein
80. Ohio Northern
85. Chicago
97. Franklin
100. DPU
114. B-W
116. Hope
118. Wooster
119. Denison
124. Elmhurst
125. Ohio Wesleyan
132. Adrian
133. Augustana
139. MSJ
141. Hiram (I've never seen Hiram over 200 before...)
145. Albion
153. Illinois Wesleyan (thud...)
155. RHIT
159. Trine (surprising, I voted for them in my 10...but that Manchester loss does not look good in the algorithm).
160. Olivet
163. Concordia (WI)
170. Carthage
171. Marietta
174. Lakeland
175. Oberlin
176. Muskingum
177. Bluffton
179. Wisconsin Lutheran
182. Capital (Rocky Pentello ain't walkin' through that door...)
194. Manchester
196. Benedictine
204. Defiance
205. North Park
206. Kalamazoo
208. Allegheny
211. Millikin
219. Kenyon
220. Wilmington
222. Hanover
223. Anderson
232. Aurora
236. Concordia (IL)
237. Rockford
238. Earlham

Out of 245...

[smedindy]

I don't have 'Berg in my Posters Poll top 25, and they're one bad game from being out of this Top 10, but I don't think there are 10 teams better than them here.

[Li'l Giant]

I don't have 'Berg in my Posters Poll top 25, and they're one bad game from being out of this Top 10, but I don't think there are 10 teams better than them here.

But maybe that's the point. Because if they played a regionally ranked team that would be a big game and we know what they do in big games. Or rather, what they don't do.

[smedindy]

But regional rankings aren't necessarily congruent with the best teams in the region - if you recall when Concordia - Chicago was so highly ranked.

We are talking about a team that's only lost to playoff teams (counting this season if they win out and JCU and MTU both make it) in the past three seasons. It's not like they lost to someone inferior. Their last non-playoff loss was a 2011 loss to B-W, which was an upset loss by Capital from making the playoffs. If they go 8-2 again this season, I think they're definitely one of the best 10 teams in the region  - and better than probably all of the MIAA and HCAC.

[wally_wabash]

This would be a much easier conversation to have if every time we put an MIAA into the 10, they go out and get drilled by somebody out of the NACC (I prefer the NathCON, but sadly we seem to have left that behind).  Maybe we aren't paying enough attention to that league in this forum. 

I agree with LG there though; I've not seen any evidence that Heidelberg is actually better than Franklin or a MIAA champ or a runner up from the CCIW or NCAC.  While they have, for three years now, been demolishing the bad teams in their league (and Alma), they aren't beating anybody that I don't think could also be beaten by Franklin or an MIAA champ, etc.  I've just stopped being wowed by their margins against the dregs of the OAC when they totally no show against UMU and JCU. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

But regional rankings aren't necessarily congruent with the best teams in the region - if you recall when Concordia - Chicago was so highly ranked.

Are you referring to a couple years ago when they went 10-0 and lost to Bethel 24-23 after going for two late in the game? Seems like they were a decent enough team to me.

[Dr. Acula]

This would be a much easier conversation to have if every time we put an MIAA into the 10, they go out and get drilled by somebody out of the NACC (I prefer the NathCON, but sadly we seem to have left that behind).  Maybe we aren't paying enough attention to that league in this forum. 

I agree with LG there though; I've not seen any evidence that Heidelberg is actually better than Franklin or a MIAA champ or a runner up from the CCIW or NCAC.  While they have, for three years now, been demolishing the bad teams in their league (and Alma), they aren't beating anybody that I don't think could also be beaten by Franklin or an MIAA champ, etc.  I've just stopped being wowed by their margins against the dregs of the OAC when they totally no show against UMU and JCU.

Berg isn't great.  Everyone knows that.  But I think it should be mentioned in their defense that they absolutely gave Mount a better game last year than Witt did.  Berg was at least in the game (down 10 pretty much the entire 4th).  Witt looked a lot like Berg on D getting their doors blown off all day long.  So while Berg is absolutely flawed I think we need to remember that the vast majority of these other teams are too. 

[USee]

Wes has gone AWOL on us. No posts in 10 days. Everything ok?

[Li'l Giant]

I didn't think he'd take the loss to OWU so hard.

All kidding aside, based on his Twitter feed I think he's okay. He  just must be swamped.

[smedindy]

They had sectionals last week, and his team lost, because he tweeted half of his players were in tree stands this weekend. I'm sure he'll be back soon.

[BashDad]

I do get that teams evolve and change over the course of the season, but there just aren't enough games for me to dismiss a full 10% of a team's results.  Week 1 games have to count.   

Whether it's because it's week one or it's a rivalry game or some player was hurt or whatever else, we can always find a reason to shrug off a result we don't like, can't we?

Yes but the inverse is also true, which is we can easily find a way to ignore team we shouldn't. There are plenty of examples of teams who have bad losses and come back to make deep runs and/or beat teams no one gave them a chance to beat.

Is this true?