FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

I do get that teams evolve and change over the course of the season, but there just aren't enough games for me to dismiss a full 10% of a team's results.  Week 1 games have to count.   

Whether it's because it's week one or it's a rivalry game or some player was hurt or whatever else, we can always find a reason to shrug off a result we don't like, can't we?

Yes but the inverse is also true, which is we can easily find a way to ignore team we shouldn't. There are plenty of examples of teams who have bad losses and come back to make deep runs and/or beat teams no one gave them a chance to beat.

Is this true?

You think I'm lying? It's not hard to verify but for your benefit here you go:

2013 St John Fisher lost to 4 loss Salisbury, made the playoffs at 8-2 and lost to MHB in semis
2008 Wheaton lost in week 7 to a middle of the pack Elmhurst team by 14 pts. Made the playoffs at 8-2 and lost in the semi's to Mt Union.
2004 Carthage lost in week 5 35-0 to Augie, won the CCIW and lost in the quarter finals at Mt Union 38-20
** Though not the same category, Wheaton's game saturday night was an example of "bad wins" followed by winning a game no one thought they had a chance to win 

Plenty more but that's a start.

[Li'l Giant]

I do get that teams evolve and change over the course of the season, but there just aren't enough games for me to dismiss a full 10% of a team's results.  Week 1 games have to count.   

Whether it's because it's week one or it's a rivalry game or some player was hurt or whatever else, we can always find a reason to shrug off a result we don't like, can't we?

Yes but the inverse is also true, which is we can easily find a way to ignore team we shouldn't. There are plenty of examples of teams who have bad losses and come back to make deep runs and/or beat teams no one gave them a chance to beat.

Is this true?

You think I'm lying? It's not hard to verify but for your benefit here you go:

2013 St John Fisher lost to 4 loss Salisbury, made the playoffs at 8-2 and lost to MHB in semis
2008 Wheaton lost in week 7 to a middle of the pack Elmhurst team by 14 pts. Made the playoffs at 8-2 and lost in the semi's to Mt Union.
2004 Carthage lost in week 5 35-0 to Augie, won the CCIW and lost in the quarter finals at Mt Union 38-20
** Though not the same category, Wheaton's game saturday night was an example of "bad wins" followed by winning a game no one thought they had a chance to win 

Plenty more but that's a start.

That 2008 Wheaton team dropped a fiddy-burger on Wabash in the 2nd round. That loss to Elmhurst sure pissed them off.

[BashDad]

I guess I'm resisting "plenty."

[USee]

I guess I'm resisting "plenty."

Ok, I gave you 3 examples off the top of my head. How many examples do you need. I know of at least 5 others I can research and I am guessing there are probably several others. So if you want to pay me for my time I can find "plenty". But for now, I am comfortable with my analysis and statement.

[wally_wabash]

I think it's worth noting that the 2008 Wheaton and 2013 SJF teams needed a whole bunch of help in Week 11 to get invited.  Particularly the 2008 Wheaton team...that Week 11 was bananas.  Certainly, a two-loss team that gets into the field can win games,  My point was that Elmhurst lost to Loras, who is terrible.  Week 1 or not, that's a thing that happened.  Elmhurst has the opportunity to make that result meaningless by going 7-0 in league play.  But anything less and they won't be getting invited, mostly because of that result. 

[USee]

I think it's worth noting that the 2008 Wheaton and 2013 SJF teams needed a whole bunch of help in Week 11 to get invited.  Particularly the 2008 Wheaton team...that Week 11 was bananas.  Certainly, a two-loss team that gets into the field can win games,  My point was that Elmhurst lost to Loras, who is terrible.  Week 1 or not, that's a thing that happened.  Elmhurst has the opportunity to make that result meaningless by going 7-0 in league play.  But anything less and they won't be getting invited, mostly because of that result.

True but its a new day and I highly doubt any 2 loss teams are getting in with only 5 Pool C bids.

As far as Elmhurst and Loras, to set the record straight, that was a bad, bad loss. But if you don't believe teams change, often dramatically, during a season then you haven't watched much football (the general "you" not the specific "you"). Elmhurst lost to Loras because they turned it over 7 times and ran for less than 100 yds. Just about every team in the country loses to Loras with 7 turnovers.  In the 6 games since they have turned it over 9 times total and have averaged near 200 yds rushing. They are dramatically better now than they were in week 1. I expect a battle this weekend when they play Wheaton.

[smedindy]

Teams may change but you can't erase the result when it's that bad. It was week one yes, and on the road, but it's not like North Central flying all the way to Redlands to play. It was freakin' Loras, who were 4-26 the past three years before this season.

If Wabash played Manchester week one, and loss, and they somehow finished 8-2 after that, they wouldn't be going either.

Plus, there's a big difference between "big runs" and "beating a team no one expected them to beat".

Plus, you can't even compare Loras to Salisbury or even to 2004 Augie.

[USee]

Teams may change but you can't erase the result when it's that bad. It was week one yes, and on the road, but it's not like North Central flying all the way to Redlands to play. It was freakin' Loras, who were 4-26 the past three years before this season.

If Wabash played Manchester week one, and loss, and they somehow finished 8-2 after that, they wouldn't be going either.

Plus, there's a big difference between "big runs" and "beating a team no one expected them to beat".

Plus, you can't even compare Loras to Salisbury or even to 2004 Augie.

I don't disagree at all. I don't think Elmhurst is a playoff team unless they win out, which will take another, dramatic, evolution of their team. And at 8-2 they would be the AQ from the CCIW so they aren't even a candidate for pool C under any scenario. They do appear in my NRFP 10 this week though.

[Li'l Giant]

They do appear in my NRFP 10 this week though.

Mine as well.

[BashDad]

But if you don't believe teams change, often dramatically, during a season then you haven't watched much football (the general "you" not the specific "you").

I've watched a lot of football and I don't think teams "often" change dramatically over the course of the season.

[USee]

But if you don't believe teams change, often dramatically, during a season then you haven't watched much football (the general "you" not the specific "you").

I've watched a lot of football and I don't think teams "often" change dramatically over the course of the season.

Ok, we definitely disagree and/or have watched a lot of different football. You seem to be arguing with everything I say with no real point.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Since it seems we're squabbling more about the definition of "often" than anything else, let's enumerate a couple of points here.

1. Some teams "are who we thought they were" - they debut in Week 1 as "really good" or "really bad" and stay that way throughout the season. 

2. Some teams will find a spark or make a subtle change that lifts the team's ceiling up a level during the season.  Whether that's a schematic shift, getting a top player back from an injury (let's go to everyone's favorite Wabash cautionary tale, the 2012 Oberlin team which lost Josh Mandel for three games at midseason and got rolled by some very mediocre teams, then got him back and promptly beat a 7-1 Wabash team otherwise destined for the playoffs), the insertion of a key player into the lineup (Nate Kmic in the 2005 playoffs, anyone?), the maturation of a unit (for example, a young offensive line beginning to gel at midseason), this stuff absolutely can happen during a season.  If you truly believe that these things cannot happen...well, then I think you're arguing just for the sake of argument.

3. Some "really bad" teams will, unbelievably, manage to get worse as the season goes along (the flip side of some things above: a scheme change gone wrong, loss of a key player due to injury, a coach that "loses the locker room" or "stops reaching his players"), and a team that opened with a few close/competitive losses starts to get their doors blown off every week by season's end.  I present to you the 2013 Hiram team that started off as feisty and above-usual-Hiram-looking as this team, lost Partridge for the season, and ended up on the wrong end of a bunch of blowouts in October and November.

4. Some teams that begin the season in that great wide middle of Division III, beneath the top 25 and above the bottom 25, will float upwards or downwards as the season goes along for the same reasons enumerated in #2 and #3; injuries, scheme change, discovery of a new key player, maturation of an existing player or unit.  BashDad disputes the fact that this happens "often" - I disagree. 

I think that almost every year, looking back, you can find some curious results from week 1 or 2 that might have made sense at the time, but in retrospect leave you wondering how they ever happened.  Elmhurst still deserves to be docked for that loss to Loras - I am a firm believer that rankings and/or playoff seedings should be determined with all results weighed equally, not with a preference given to more recent results - but Elmhurst is starting to look plausible as a 9th or 10th-ranked candidate not just because they have a few wins strung together, but because everybody below the top six has warts. 

For example, Franklin lost to a looking-worse-every-week IWU in the opener; at the start of the season, you could have passed that off as a tough opening game against a CCIW contender, but looking at IWU today (1-3 in the CCIW, only conference win against last-place Millikin, and bad OOC loss to Simpson, who - guess what - just lost to Loras!), that game looks almost as bad as the loss to Loras, and I don't think anyone's really disputing that Franklin deserves their spot around 7th or 8th in these rankings.  I don't think it's a stone-cold lock that Elmhurst is one of the region's 10 best teams, but I also don't think you can dismiss them because of the worst result on their schedule; otherwise, you'll be tossing out a whole lot of other teams as well.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

well said Tartan.  with regard to Franklin, I agree that loss was considered a decent loss around labor day and now is starting to look worse and worse.  That was a game where inexperience on defense and QB coupled with 2-3 untimely turnovers cost the GRIZ a game they could have still won and would probably win today.  It is what it is.  All that said, barring some sort of meltdown, Franklin should end up 8-0 in the conference and 8-2 overall with one loss to Whitewater.  Probably be a 6-7 seed and hit the road somewhere (my take is Wabash/Witt winner or Wheaton or maybe a John Carroll).  Who knows.

[D3MAFAN]

well said Tartan.  with regard to Franklin, I agree that loss was considered a decent loss around labor day and now is starting to look worse and worse.  That was a game where inexperience on defense and QB coupled with 2-3 untimely turnovers cost the GRIZ a game they could have still won and would probably win today.  It is what it is.  All that said, barring some sort of meltdown, Franklin should end up 8-0 in the conference and 8-2 overall with one loss to Whitewater.  Probably be a 6-7 seed and hit the road somewhere (my take is Wabash/Witt winner or Wheaton or maybe a John Carroll).  Who knows.

Maybe a trip back to Belton, TX., pull a UW-Lacrosse and play both the #1 and #2 teams in the country.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

well said Tartan.  with regard to Franklin, I agree that loss was considered a decent loss around labor day and now is starting to look worse and worse.  That was a game where inexperience on defense and QB coupled with 2-3 untimely turnovers cost the GRIZ a game they could have still won and would probably win today.  It is what it is.  All that said, barring some sort of meltdown, Franklin should end up 8-0 in the conference and 8-2 overall with one loss to Whitewater.  Probably be a 6-7 seed and hit the road somewhere (my take is Wabash/Witt winner or Wheaton or maybe a John Carroll).  Who knows.

Maybe a trip back to Belton, TX., pull a UW-Lacrosse and play both the #1 and #2 teams in the country.

Trip to Belton would suggest Franklin will be an 8.  IMO there will be a couple teams that get in as a conference winner with no resume etc.  Franklin typically schedules a power team or two to beef up the quality of competition vs the HCAC slate.  My gut says Witt/Bash or Wheaton.  If John Carroll stands tough with Mount I can see them getting a 3.