FB: Region 4 fan poll

[smedindy]

It's not making stuff up, dude. A 14 point win over Kalamazoo isn't one to sing Hosanna's about, especially since Albion threw 75 on them! Really good teams take a team like the Hornets and grind their bones to make bread.

It's been an odd year, but the elite have really smashed their weaker opponents this year (notice how many put up 50s, 60s and 70s along the way) so close results like those stand out. Though if Wheaton was still working out kinks I can see them not rolling up that many early in the year, and certainly the North Central game is impressive, but there is concern that there's not huge meat on that bone. It's clear the CCIW isn't what they normally are this year.

[Li'l Giant]

It's not making stuff up, dude. A 14 point win over Kalamazoo isn't one to sing Hosanna's about, especially since Albion threw 75 on them! Really good teams take a team like the Hornets and grind their bones to make bread.

It's been an odd year, but the elite have really smashed their weaker opponents this year (notice how many put up 50s, 60s and 70s along the way) so close results like those stand out. Though if Wheaton was still working out kinks I can see them not rolling up that many early in the year, and certainly the North Central game is impressive, but there is concern that there's not huge meat on that bone. It's clear the CCIW isn't what they normally are this year.

This is the "Style Points" argument we hear about?

[smedindy]

I'm loath to run up the score, and there's diminishing returns obviously since a 35-0 pasting is basically the same as 70-0 when all is said and done. It's that those non-conference games for Wheaton and the Augie game don't scream powerhouse to me.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I'm loath to run up the score, and there's diminishing returns obviously since a 35-0 pasting is basically the same as 70-0 when all is said and done. It's that those non-conference games for Wheaton and the Augie game don't scream powerhouse to me.

Without the Hampton Sydney game, that argument could be made for Bash as well.  Scores sometimes are deceiving.  2nd and 3rd string folks not as deep as a MTU for example could allow for spreads to be smaller.  In some cases, coaches call the dogs off early to get more time early in the season to help build depth.  There are so many teams in D3 the comparative arguments can be endless.

[ExTartanPlayer]

It's that those non-conference games for Wheaton and the Augie game don't scream powerhouse to me.

I don't entirely disagree with you, but isn't this related to the whole discussion about teams changing during the season?

Peltz came in and lit it up at QB against NCC after barely playing prior to that game.  It remains to be seen whether that was a real-deal performance or a one-game thing, but if that's the caliber of the real guy who's playing QB for the rest of the season...playoff-time Wheaton's offense is a bit different than week-2 Wheaton, right?

For playoff selection and regional rankings, I'm a pretty firm believer in weighing all results equally, no sympathy points for a team that didn't have their **** together from the get-go.  But if you're evaluating who's a threat to make a playoff run...are those first couple of games still very relevant if there's a new, better dude at QB now?

[smedindy]

Bash only had that one non-conference game, though. The two closest games were against pretty good offenses (Denison and Wooster). In the latter game, Wooster was shut down for the most part even if they managed 16 points.

I have Wheaton in my top 25, and of course ranked here. It's just that I think they're not primed for a long playoff run if they make it. I'm waiting to see if the QB revelation was a flash-in-the-pan or not.

[USee]

And I just don't think beating Oberlin by 60 (thanks WW) is any more impressive than beating Coe and KZoo by "less-than-impressive-margins". I think Wheaton showed where they are last Saturday. You telling me NCC isn't any good? So Platteville is far worse than that? You can rationalize your view that Wheaton is weak by saying NCC is worse than we thought or the bottom of the CCIW sucked in the non conference but I think you are not convinced by Wheaton's early wins and not giving them nearly the credit they deserve for beating NCC the way they did.

I get it, Wheaton had 35 yds of offense in the second half vs Augie. I wasn't thinking playoffs at that time. But the team that showed up Saturday (with JP11 at QB) can go toe to toe with anybody in the top 20 (save some purple people eaters). Did anyone on here expect Wheaton to out rush NCC? Anyone? Bueller? I have no idea if they will show up the next 3 weeks but Wheaton was easily a top 10 team Saturday. And I think NCC is a top 15 team still. You don't agree and that's ok. But please don't try to tell me 50 pt blowouts are a sign of national power. That's make believe stuff, especially coming from anyone who has followed Wabash for any length of time. 

[GRIZ_BACKER]

And I just don't think beating Oberlin by 60 (thanks WW) is any more impressive than beating Coe and KZoo by "less-than-impressive-margins". I think Wheaton showed where they are last Saturday. You telling me NCC isn't any good? So Platteville is far worse than that? You can rationalize your view that Wheaton is weak by saying NCC is worse than we thought or the bottom of the CCIW sucked in the non conference but I think you are not convinced by Wheaton's early wins and not giving them nearly the credit they deserve for beating NCC the way they did.

I get it, Wheaton had 35 yds of offense in the second half vs Augie. I wasn't thinking playoffs at that time. But the team that showed up Saturday (with JP11 at QB) can go toe to toe with anybody in the top 20 (save some purple people eaters). Did anyone on here expect Wheaton to out rush NCC? Anyone? Bueller? I have no idea if they will show up the next 3 weeks but Wheaton was easily a top 10 team Saturday. And I think NCC is a top 15 team still. You don't agree and that's ok. But please don't try to tell me 50 pt blowouts are a sign of national power. That's make believe stuff, especially coming from anyone who has followed Wabash for any length of time.

I agree on the blow-out comment. Fools gold.

Things will play themselves out in the next three weeks.  Bash still has to win at Witt (has only lost 2 conference games 2009 - present) and then has to beat a resurgent Depauw team (you can throw out the records in that game).  While we are the comparative score track, Depauw held its own in Springfield OH against the Tigers.  Witt only has the close loss to Butler. 

Wheaton is strongly in drivers seat and I dont fully understand why they couldnt make a playoff run any more than a Witt or a Bash etc.  Lets all be honest:  The road will most likley stop in Alliance, Whitewater,or Denton depending on the brackets for any CCIW, NCAC, HCAC etc.  And at this point John Carroll is rock solid and would be in contention for a 1/2 if not for MU.

[bashbrother]

at the end of the day and any way you look at it,  Wheaton's win was a big one.... impressive etc.

If I was a NC fan,  I would be scratching my head a little.    They beat Platteville handily,  lose to Stevens Point and then drop one to Wheaton.   Meanwhile,  Platteville handles Stevens Point easily.   So the common opponent analysis is problematic in determining NC's actual strength.

[smedindy]

Usee -

I think you're a wee bit defensive here. Did I not say the win over North Central is impressive? Sorry I'm not genuflecting towards the Thunder after that because I'm taking the rest of their games into consideration.

[USee]

Usee -

I think you're a wee bit defensive here. Did I not say the win over North Central is impressive? Sorry I'm not genuflecting towards the Thunder after that because I'm taking the rest of their games into consideration.

You can do whatever you want Smeds. I am highlighting that you have been inconsistent. You can't call the Thunder win "impressive" and spend 10 other posts referencing the mythical "less than impressive wins". It seems to me you are equal weighting all the results and I am definitely weighing the most recent results far heavier than the early ones due to changes of a team over a season. That's ok if we just admit our methodology is different. I care a lot how teams are playing now, less who/how they played in September. I think that's more realistic. You don't appear to think so. We disagree.

[Li'l Giant]

I don't necessarily weigh the results equally either. Because each week's ballot is (to me anyway) a question of who the best teams are now, not in Week 1. We already voted on that week. That isn't to say you throw the results out.

I think Wabash's win over Hampden-Sydney will look good whether it happened in Week 1 or Week 11. Mostly because Wabash has been consistent through the season. But, as referenced above, teams evolve. And while a team may have "started slow" or had personnel changes, if I'm in Week 8 and being asked who the best 10 teams in the region are in Week 8, a result in Week 7 is going to seem more useful to me in answering that than one in Week 1.

I'm sure that makes no sense to anyone but me.

[smedindy]

Usee -

I think you're a wee bit defensive here. Did I not say the win over North Central is impressive? Sorry I'm not genuflecting towards the Thunder after that because I'm taking the rest of their games into consideration.

You can do whatever you want Smeds. I am highlighting that you have been inconsistent. You can't call the Thunder win "impressive" and spend 10 other posts referencing the mythical "less than impressive wins". It seems to me you are equal weighting all the results and I am definitely weighing the most recent results far heavier than the early ones due to changes of a team over a season. That's ok if we just admit our methodology is different. I care a lot how teams are playing now, less who/how they played in September. I think that's more realistic. You don't appear to think so. We disagree.

I have to weight the entire body of work into consideration. Is it a 'weighted average'? Yeah, but you don't throw out data points. You interpret them; and Wheaton hasn't done anything super-duper-ultra spectacular, as good as the NC win was, to leap over Mt. Union, Wabash, JCU, and Witt with what they've done.  I have them fifth in the North. I have them 20th nationally. It's not like I have them down in MIAA land. If Witt has another clinker against OWU like against Denison, and Wheaton continues their solid play against Elmhurst, then yeah I'm going to flip 'em.

I'm lowest on them in the Posters Poll - I just think Witt, SJF, HSC, the MIAC 2 and 3 , the WIAC 2 and 3 and W&J are slightly better. Not by leaps and bounds; but we have to rank them in cardinal numbers from 1 to 25 instead of a weighted set.  So while I have SJF 12th and Wheaton 20th, it's not that vast of a difference. SJF has three pretty damn tough games to end their year. This'll all wash out.

[Gregory Sager]

well said Tartan.  with regard to Franklin, I agree that loss was considered a decent loss around labor day and now is starting to look worse and worse.  That was a game where inexperience on defense and QB coupled with 2-3 untimely turnovers cost the GRIZ a game they could have still won and would probably win today.  It is what it is.  All that said, barring some sort of meltdown, Franklin should end up 8-0 in the conference and 8-2 overall with one loss to Whitewater.  Probably be a 6-7 seed and hit the road somewhere (my take is Wabash/Witt winner or Wheaton or maybe a John Carroll).  Who knows.

It should be noted IWU is an example of a team that is dramatically different than it was. They lost their Frosh QB to Mono, they then inexplicably took their best defensive player and put him at QB. He had an emergency appendectomy the night before a game, their 3rd string kid played a game and a half and injured his knee and their 4th string qb just played in a one point loss to Elmhurst. So Franklin's loss was to a fairly different IWU team.

Yes, but that same Illinois Wesleyan team -- with the original starting QB, Jack Warner -- lost to Simpson two weeks after beating Franklin. In fact, it scored a grand total of three points against that Simpson team, even with the offensive starting eleven of the Titans still intact at that point. So the Franklin loss can be effectively described as being to the same team in terms of personnel that lost to lowly Simpson two Saturdays later.

[bashgiant]

Are you gentlemen still doing the north fan poll?