FB: Region 4 fan poll

[wally_wabash]

On my first pass this week I had IWU ahead of NCC and then I changed it up before submitting my ballot.  I really struggled with how I should weigh IWU's great result (road win vs. Franklin) with whether or not I feel North Central is the better team.  Fortunately we'll figure that out for sure a little later on, but for right now, I'd still favor North Central in that game.  I may think differently if they get squashed by Wesley on Saturday (possible). 

I'm also one of the 10s for Franklin.  1-2 is their record, but the Butler result gets tossed from my evaluation (I'm not sure anybody in the region beats Butler tbh) and the one loss was to a team I have fairly highly ranked.  My hunch is that Franklin is going to cruise through the HCAC (even through RHIT), but I'll certainly revisit my thinking on Franklin if they aren't impressive each week from here on out. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

[Mr. Ypsi]

On my first pass this week I had IWU ahead of NCC and then I changed it up before submitting my ballot.  I really struggled with how I should weigh IWU's great result (road win vs. Franklin) with whether or not I feel North Central is the better team.  Fortunately we'll figure that out for sure a little later on, but for right now, I'd still favor North Central in that game.  I may think differently if they get squashed by Wesley on Saturday (possible). 

I'm also one of the 10s for Franklin.  1-2 is their record, but the Butler result gets tossed from my evaluation (I'm not sure anybody in the region beats Butler tbh) and the one loss was to a team I have fairly highly ranked.  My hunch is that Franklin is going to cruise through the HCAC (even through RHIT), but I'll certainly revisit my thinking on Franklin if they aren't impressive each week from here on out.

Similar to my thinking on every point.  I'm still thinking 8-2 as IWU's final record, but now have hope of 9-1 and a Pool C bid - I don't think anyone is taking down Wheaton in the CCIW.  We DO get both NCC and Wheaton in Bloomington this year.  MAYBE enough to beat NCC; barring far more injuries in Wheaton than B'town, probably not enough to beat the Wheaties.

And I would be shocked if Franklin didn't end up 8-2 and having the HCAC AQ.

[USee]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

Ypsi,

Be careful here. It is a dangerous path to use a term like "...but not been destroyed by" when ranking teams. I don't know how credible it is to compare a 29 pt loss with a 50 pt loss, especially when ranking teams. Remember UWW has beaten 2 teams with a combined 0-5 record, but we are pretty sure they are going to be decent. Why? Because they have some good players coming back and  those players had success against a schedule last year that looks similar this year. Mt Union's 2 wins by a combined score of 103-0 are 1-4. 

That's part of the reason I pick Olivet over Albion. Olivet lost 4 games last year by a combined 19 pts including a 2 pt loss @albion (Olivet beat Adrian last). Olivet has 22 returning starters including a senior QB and they got a stud RB they didn't have last year. Albion has 13 returning starters (8 on offense with a senior QB and 5 on defense). Olivet hosts Albion and Adrian this year. Adrian? 10 returning starters w only 3 back on defense. Experience matters, as do injuries. One of the reason's I am pretty high on IWU this year is because they have so much returning experience and a favorable schedule. It's not just about looking at early season results (though that certainly matters) it's about weighing multiple factors that contribute to success and/or failure.

Ranking these teams is part art and part science. I read Phil Steele's college football preview every year and he is the best in the business as predicting team outcomes. His track record is undeniable. In 2013 he picked Florida State as his #1 surprise team and they won the National Title. In 2002 his #1 surprise team was Ohio State...National Title. In the last 6 years he has ranked the AP top 10 for the next season in February after the previous year and he has hit on 56 of 60 teams. He has a very complex system of ranking teams including 9 sets of rankings that he explains in his publication. It's very interesting stuff and he is about as good as it gets in predicting outcomes.

All that to say, there are a lot of factors that determine a team's success or failure and none of us have 9 sets of power rankings. You guys have said last year the key to Wheaton's success was the Johnny Peltz addition at QB. His own coaches had moved him to WR the week before his first start at QB. Only an injury forced him back into duty at QB. I would argue there were other very significant factors that contributed to Wheaton's success. Ben Pettway, a freshman OT, beat out a senior OT and had a dominant year (that happened after 3 games or so), Logan McRae, who was voted 1st team All CCIW as an LB, missed the first couple games and wasn't at 100% until about week 4, Hollinger beat our a senior to start at guard but not until week 3 or 4. These are all key factors that led to Wheaton's development later in the year.

[wabashcpa]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

When did this happen?  I must have missed it, unless you are referring to last year.  I'm still hoping a Bell game may determine the conference champion!

[ExTartanPlayer]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

When did this happen?  I must have missed it, unless you are referring to last year.  I'm still hoping a Bell game may determine the conference champion!

Lol, I'm glad someone else noticed that.  I was trying to figure out how I could have missed the DePauw-Witt game, figured that the Wabash crowd would have had a lot more chatter about that game if it had already happened...

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

When did this happen?  I must have missed it, unless you are referring to last year.  I'm still hoping a Bell game may determine the conference champion!

Lol, I'm glad someone else noticed that.  I was trying to figure out how I could have missed the DePauw-Witt game, figured that the Wabash crowd would have had a lot more chatter about that game if it had already happened...

OOPS!!   On my notes I had both OWU AND DePauw losing 21-42 to Witt!

[USee]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

When did this happen?  I must have missed it, unless you are referring to last year.  I'm still hoping a Bell game may determine the conference champion!

Lol, I'm glad someone else noticed that.  I was trying to figure out how I could have missed the DePauw-Witt game, figured that the Wabash crowd would have had a lot more chatter about that game if it had already happened...

He is talking about the hypothetical match up based on Kickoff rankings!

[wabashcpa]

Nice!

[wally_wabash]

Ypsi,  If you are actually using the kickoff rankings at this point in the season to rank teams and predict outcomes then we should vote you out of this thread.  As Wally said, Franklin may end up ranked but there are too many other good results to choose from for a 1-2 team to be ranked.  Please tell me you actually read the team profiles in kickoff and don't just look at the rankings?   

Yes, I read the profiles.  But this is still WAY early in the season to get a handle on many teams.  Olivet has beaten Earlham, Carthage, and Aurora - as would probably 150+ teams.  DePauw has beaten Earlham, Wooster, and lost to (but not been destroyed by) Witt, which hardly qualifies them as world-beaters.  Denison has beaten 0-2 Marietta and 1-2 Oberlin - not exactly impressive credentials.  I certainly switch to actual results over 'reputation' at some point, but those are NOT yet results that get my attention.  SO FAR I will take Franklin's record (and past history) over any of those three.

When did this happen?  I must have missed it, unless you are referring to last year.  I'm still hoping a Bell game may determine the conference champion!

10/10 for Witt @ DePauw by the way.  Depending on this weekend's outcome and the outcome of that game, Monon Bell Saturday could be for all the marbles. 

Of course, all of these teams also still have to beat Denison (he says only half-jokingly). 

[wally_wabash]

This is hard this week.  I have no idea what to do after my top 3. 

[Dr. Acula]

It was rough.  I struggled with how to handle JCU and NCC specifically this week.

[Li'l Giant]

This is hard this week.  I have no idea what to do after my top 3.

5-10 was an issue for me.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Since Chicago is now up to (#26) on the d3football.com poll, and is still listed in the North region team pages, we need a definitive ruling: IS Chicago eligible for the North Region Fan Poll (despite being a member of a South region conference)?

I was out-of-town this weekend until about an hour ago and am just catching up, but I notice they have gone to 3-0 (including beating formerly #21 Centre), and might crack the bottom of my ballot IF they are considered eligible.  IF they keep winning, the poll could be skewed if some vote for them but others don't only because they assume them to be a South team.

Sorry to put you on the spot, Wally, but you IS the referee this season!   [Once regional rankings come out we can know for sure, but we have several polls between now and then.]

[wally_wabash]

Since Chicago is now up to (#26) on the d3football.com poll, and is still listed in the North region team pages, we need a definitive ruling: IS Chicago eligible for the North Region Fan Poll (despite being a member of a South region conference)?

I was out-of-town this weekend until about an hour ago and am just catching up, but I notice they have gone to 3-0 (including beating formerly #21 Centre), and might crack the bottom of my ballot IF they are considered eligible.  IF they keep winning, the poll could be skewed if some vote for them but others don't only because they assume them to be a South team.

Sorry to put you on the spot, Wally, but you IS the referee this season!   [Once regional rankings come out we can know for sure, but we have several polls between now and then.]

I think I'm saying no to Chicago as a North Region team.  When the UAA was it's own thing, the teams were scattered in three different regions, but the UAA also didn't award an AQ.  Every other conference that has had some weird things going on geographically has always just included those weird teams in the predominant geographical region (DPU and RHIT were South teams when they were in the SCAC, Wesley, CNU, and SoVA have switched from south to east, etc.).  I think Chicago is a South team for the next season and a half.